London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)(spectrum.ieee.org)
spectrum.ieee.org
London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)
https://spectrum.ieee.org/londons-crossrail-is-a-21-billion-test-of-virtual-modeling
57 comments
Can anybody here give a quick overview of why there are such delays for the line opening?
Crossrail is legendary in the field as the example of what not to do when managing mega projects.
What I was told by greybeards: systems engineering was non-existent and rushed to the « let’s start to concrete » phase. When the project started to install the various systems, all hell broke loose. For example, systems had to be taken in, then out, because they just didn’t work in the field.
Side note: which makes this article really a good laugh. Who cares if your virtual model works if it does not in the real world?
OK so, that would not have been too bad if the management of the mega project would just have recognized the fuck up and declared delays. Instead, it scrambled to find ways to recuperate the accumulating delays, while reporting green to the politicians. As usual, a cretin came into the room to suggest that signalling tests could be compressed down and commissioning tests could proceed while construction completed the remaining work.
Problem: crossrail decided to experiment with a new hybrid signalling system that uses two different types of train control in order to maximize throughput in central london area. That turned an already rotten idea into an impossible one. Situation in the fields became insane. Signalling contractor shot a letter to cover ass. Politicians finally noticed, and sent clueless consultants to investigate, therefore opening the gates of hell.
Aaaaah. I like the scent of Napalm in the tunnels.
EDIT: typos
What I was told by greybeards: systems engineering was non-existent and rushed to the « let’s start to concrete » phase. When the project started to install the various systems, all hell broke loose. For example, systems had to be taken in, then out, because they just didn’t work in the field.
Side note: which makes this article really a good laugh. Who cares if your virtual model works if it does not in the real world?
OK so, that would not have been too bad if the management of the mega project would just have recognized the fuck up and declared delays. Instead, it scrambled to find ways to recuperate the accumulating delays, while reporting green to the politicians. As usual, a cretin came into the room to suggest that signalling tests could be compressed down and commissioning tests could proceed while construction completed the remaining work.
Problem: crossrail decided to experiment with a new hybrid signalling system that uses two different types of train control in order to maximize throughput in central london area. That turned an already rotten idea into an impossible one. Situation in the fields became insane. Signalling contractor shot a letter to cover ass. Politicians finally noticed, and sent clueless consultants to investigate, therefore opening the gates of hell.
Aaaaah. I like the scent of Napalm in the tunnels.
EDIT: typos
I've worked on some mega projects as well, and the key to being on time and on budget is to manage the PR so that no-one knows when it's supposed to be completed and how much it's going to cost. The only difference between Crossrail and private sector projects is that there is no press scoutiny over how much over budget they have gone and how late they are.
This should finally validate hacker movies that do a swish 3D fly-by of the bank/casino/high-school they're breaking into.
Discussed at the time:
London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 - April 2016 (11 comments)
London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 - March 2016 (1 comment)
London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 - April 2016 (11 comments)
London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 - March 2016 (1 comment)
(2016)
(2016)
Indeed. From the article:
> The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year.
Currently the project hopes to be able to open one line in 2022 (maybe) and is at least half a billion pounds over budget.
> The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year.
Currently the project hopes to be able to open one line in 2022 (maybe) and is at least half a billion pounds over budget.
Only half a billion? So 2% over budget? That sounds great for an infrastructure project.
According to wikipedia, at least, it's 4bn [1] But you're correct, for a (UK) infrastructure project that's actually pretty good especially considering it has to go underground through a city that has medieval and Roman ruins littered all over the place [2]
> The total estimated cost has risen from an initial budget of £14.8 billion to £18.7 billion, as of August 2020.[7]
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/21/crossrail-de...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Mithraeum
> The total estimated cost has risen from an initial budget of £14.8 billion to £18.7 billion, as of August 2020.[7]
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/21/crossrail-de...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Mithraeum
It isn't done yet... To really see how far the budget miss is, you have to wait for the thing to be finished and all costs accounted for, while also seeing how much the project has been scaled back (for example travel time goals not met because the trains are poorer performance than initially specced)
Class 345s were all manufactured and are already in service today. Is their performance in fact "poorer than initially specified" ?
I guess you'll see next year when the timetable is released
The trains exist now, either they do, or they do not, perform as intended.
Trial running is at 12tph now, so that's the same as the initial passenger service. If they can't hit the travel time numbers they already know that today. Trial operations will also give real (volunteer) passengers an impression of whether the service can deliver those times since they'll be undertaking test journeys late in 2021.
Trial running is at 12tph now, so that's the same as the initial passenger service. If they can't hit the travel time numbers they already know that today. Trial operations will also give real (volunteer) passengers an impression of whether the service can deliver those times since they'll be undertaking test journeys late in 2021.
That is a pessimistic spin on things. They're opening the final part of the line (the new tunnels), they're confident of doing this in February, and there's a clear plan on how the rest will open in stages in the following 12 months or so.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-mak...
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-mak...
This is true but we've been here a couple of times before with Crossrail though so it might be sensible to take what they say with a pinch of salt - eg in late August 2018 they announced a surprise delay in opening from December 2018 to late 2019 then in April 2019 that became late 2020/early 2021 (which obviously then didn't happen either) - and that was all after it had already been delayed from its original 2017 planned opening.
And bear in mind that the tunnelling work was completed in 2015. It's been an absolute travesty.
And bear in mind that the tunnelling work was completed in 2015. It's been an absolute travesty.
Well, in fairness the events of the last two years have probably caused delays to many infrastructure projects.
Is that the original opening date for the line or the article publication date?
Announced this week that they're aiming for Feb 2022.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming...
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming...
I think this is a (good) joke, but just in case - the article.
> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year."
We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."
We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."
Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.
I'm inclined to agree. Every time i use the tube, i'm reminded that the Victorians were more ambitious in their infrastructure projects then us. But still, i haven't heard anyone having a nice word to say about HS2, i wonder if anyone here could explain the pros of it.
Well, in the context of the linked article and hence the comments here, it seems relevant to mention the fact - 5 years after the article's publication - and to consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?
> consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?
Maybe. 3D models have been used to design and plan projects for over 20 years now (I've been in the industry in Aus for >15 years), and so the bulk of the models are not at fault here (because if these design models were the delay, the construction would also be delayed, but the article suggests it wasn't). But when you want to go to the next level (digital twin), and start modelling every individual light-bulb, tracking it and making it function as part of a "smart system", then things will take a lot longer.
But actually, the article says;
> Despite the huge amount of construction work that has already been completed, many aspects of Crossrail do not yet have an agreed-upon final design. That’s because the complexity and uncertainty involved in building large underground structures means that detailed “fit out” designs are begun only after it’s fairly clear how the space will look.
This boggles my mind. I don't see how it couldn't all be completed at the start. The physical design should have a few flexibilities baked in, so that if the tunnel ends up a meter out of place, or the rail centerline is 200mm off target, the design should be able to absorb it with minimal re-work.
But regardless of the physical layout, they could have mocked up a model beforehand that contains all the necessary "virtual" components. They would have known what rooms/etc were required, roughly how many entities were needed per space (eg, 4 chairs, 1 table, all with data tags). Then when you have a better idea on the physical layout, you can arrange the virtual components properly.
So yes it's possible that trying to be too fancy was a major factor in the delays. I haven't worked in a professional software engineering environment, but I get the impression that at a high-level, construction engineering has similar traps and pitfalls. Just like when coding, engineers/modellers do come across problems with their initial design, and then have to face the choice of implementing significant work-arounds, or "refactor" to something different.
Maybe. 3D models have been used to design and plan projects for over 20 years now (I've been in the industry in Aus for >15 years), and so the bulk of the models are not at fault here (because if these design models were the delay, the construction would also be delayed, but the article suggests it wasn't). But when you want to go to the next level (digital twin), and start modelling every individual light-bulb, tracking it and making it function as part of a "smart system", then things will take a lot longer.
But actually, the article says;
> Despite the huge amount of construction work that has already been completed, many aspects of Crossrail do not yet have an agreed-upon final design. That’s because the complexity and uncertainty involved in building large underground structures means that detailed “fit out” designs are begun only after it’s fairly clear how the space will look.
This boggles my mind. I don't see how it couldn't all be completed at the start. The physical design should have a few flexibilities baked in, so that if the tunnel ends up a meter out of place, or the rail centerline is 200mm off target, the design should be able to absorb it with minimal re-work.
But regardless of the physical layout, they could have mocked up a model beforehand that contains all the necessary "virtual" components. They would have known what rooms/etc were required, roughly how many entities were needed per space (eg, 4 chairs, 1 table, all with data tags). Then when you have a better idea on the physical layout, you can arrange the virtual components properly.
So yes it's possible that trying to be too fancy was a major factor in the delays. I haven't worked in a professional software engineering environment, but I get the impression that at a high-level, construction engineering has similar traps and pitfalls. Just like when coding, engineers/modellers do come across problems with their initial design, and then have to face the choice of implementing significant work-arounds, or "refactor" to something different.
I have worked on major construction projects and a complicating factor is the sheer number of different disciplines involved. Teams work with their own systems and maintain their own state and then inexorably get out of sync. In computing this kind of thing is understood at a more fundamental level. You have locks, transactions, branches, merges, continuous integration etc. These same problems exist when designing a major project but are not understood.
Information systems exist but seem to have shocking data models designed by committees. Existing software and experience is then transposed on top of this information system. But the engineers don't have expertise in data and are using software from another age that makes "drawings". Adding a live "as built" component to that is just asking for trouble.
Information systems exist but seem to have shocking data models designed by committees. Existing software and experience is then transposed on top of this information system. But the engineers don't have expertise in data and are using software from another age that makes "drawings". Adding a live "as built" component to that is just asking for trouble.
> But the engineers don't have expertise in data
The story might be different elsewhere, but here it is draftsman that make the 3d models and all the associated data, and to do get a job in the industry only requires 1 year of vocational education. To put it bluntly, these aren't the smartest people.
The story might be different elsewhere, but here it is draftsman that make the 3d models and all the associated data, and to do get a job in the industry only requires 1 year of vocational education. To put it bluntly, these aren't the smartest people.
And you get one more place for people to get out of sync. One more excuse for why engineers don't need to understand their own fundamental tools.
A big issue with digging under London is that you never know what you'll find
> Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.
I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage.
Reputations are often very hard to shake.
I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage.
Reputations are often very hard to shake.
Shigeru Miyamoto said that actually.
That's not true anymore with online updates and early access on steam.
You can ship a game with lots of bugs and missing content, as long as the price is set in consequence.
You can ship a game with lots of bugs and missing content, as long as the price is set in consequence.
I think there is only so far you can stretch that before reputational damage is too great. I've seen early access games effectively abandoned as result.
The soon to be classic example is cyberpunk. Funny this actually happened to them before with the first Witcher game, originally very buggy and had a re-release that patched it, but they were a smaller studio then and their reputation effectively unknown.
The soon to be classic example is cyberpunk. Funny this actually happened to them before with the first Witcher game, originally very buggy and had a re-release that patched it, but they were a smaller studio then and their reputation effectively unknown.
You need to put that in context. Compared to a decade or two ago, an initial release was printed on DVD and unpatchable, a buggy game was effectively plastic waste. If it weren't bad enough, reviews and magazines would demolish it and make sure there were zero sales later on (not that there was a lot usually because most sales happened right after release).
It's an incredible progress for game developers that they can ship a buggy/incomplete game and improve it over the next year. (And you can write an announcement with every update to drive sales!)
It's an incredible progress for game developers that they can ship a buggy/incomplete game and improve it over the next year. (And you can write an announcement with every update to drive sales!)
Doesn't this subthread belong to the Blizzard Entertainment topic, not the Crossrail topic?
[deleted]
You only have one chance to make a first impression.
- Someone.
- Someone.
> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays."
If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models.
Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.
If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models.
Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.
COVID and Brexit have drastically reduced the amount of commuters, for the foreseeable decades.
Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.
Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.
The best capital improvements are the ones that you can obviate away through cheap behavioral or societal adjustments (just as the best line of code is the one you can remove or didn’t have to write).
These words aren't necessarily wrong, but quite irrelevant here, since Brexit can be called many things but 'cheap' isn't one of them.
Was more directed at COVID pushing remote work, negating the need to shuffle bodies around via public transit to do knowledge work. I agree Brexit has been an expensive, unnecessary shit show.
COVID has not been cheap either - it has cost hundreds of billions [0]. You could fund twenty crossrails for this amount of money.
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-c...
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-c...
Brexit was a choice, while the fiscal, monetary, and societal response to COVID was necessary and unavoidable.
I disagree that it was unavoidable. I said to my family in February that the UK should stop all - absolutely all - flights into the country. The cost of this would have been miniscule compared to what ended up happening.
(Not just flights - everything except essential goods including via trains, ships and lorries. Certainly all people should have been disallowed entry.)
(Not just flights - everything except essential goods including via trains, ships and lorries. Certainly all people should have been disallowed entry.)
Ah, makes sense. My bad.
Although I do believe there is a great future for public transit in coordination with lighter ‘last mile’ solutions simply because cars are way too bulky for cities.
Although I do believe there is a great future for public transit in coordination with lighter ‘last mile’ solutions simply because cars are way too bulky for cities.
No worries at all. I agree that in most of Europe, cars are to be avoided considering density and robust existing connectivity. With that said, it makes sense to consider the New Future when making capex plans.
Project timelines and budgets for projects of that size have never been predictable. Look at software development, the industry has largely moved away from trying to predict large projects and now just builds the smallest increments possible. Building infrastructure in a city with 100,000 unknowns underground is far worse.
Seattle had the same hand wringing around our newish rail line back in the early 2000s, now no one even knows it was late.
Also - Now that Seattle is around 85% vaccinated, offices are re-opening and the trains are full again. London is being more conservative in their approach to reopening, but they are merely months behind.
Seattle had the same hand wringing around our newish rail line back in the early 2000s, now no one even knows it was late.
Also - Now that Seattle is around 85% vaccinated, offices are re-opening and the trains are full again. London is being more conservative in their approach to reopening, but they are merely months behind.
Trains are pretty full right now in London.
But just “full to capacity, standing room only” full, not ”full to beyond capacity, have to push and squeeze your way in before the doors close” like before the pandemic!
But just “full to capacity, standing room only” full, not ”full to beyond capacity, have to push and squeeze your way in before the doors close” like before the pandemic!
What churlish asinine myopia. Plenty of people affected by life changing disruption to their living conditions and communities. Seveal years of putting your life on hold is a big deal.
People who bought their houses along the line expecting speedy commute care very much.
Impressive implementation of a digital twin. Looking forward to finally taking a ride in this thing when it opens.