Starting out with preparing for the the more likely scenarios is definitely easier (and most likely more effective) than preparing for Illumunati death squads chasing survivors amongst the zombie hordes in a nuclear wasteland.
Personally, I find it very likely that there will be some kind of short-term (less than 30 days) disruption here, within the next ten years. I live on the countryside and in the north so it's really just a matter of time before the climate changes screws up the weather to such an extent that we get snowed in. Likewise, it's not really that far fetched to expect an extended power outage or flooding.
Medium to long-term disruptions are much less likely (although still possible), but in those cases it's much more important to make sure one's local community can co-operate to make sure actual food production and maintenance of critical infrastructure is handled.
Once that part is handled, prepping for nuclear war, uprisings, alien invasions, zombie apocalypses and so on will be easier (as the basics are covered) and quite a fun hobby. It will also be useful as it will keep skills, that would otherwise be lost to time, alive and well.
Having access to a ranged weapon is defenitely a plus. Even if complete absence of law and order is a somewhat unlikely scenario, a ranged weapon will also make things like hunting for food easier.
In many places, there are quite heavy restrictions on firearms, and obtaining one without breaking the law might simply not be legal for everyone. Most such countries don't outlaw the use of bows and arrows though...