The Growth aspect mentioned is that VCs are subsidizing the bill right now, so it is hard to know if at the current moment the demand curve would promote as much usage without it, but assuming demand remained constant (not even growing), you could expect token prices to be competed down. It is a commodity without a moat.
Now that we have pretty decent open source models, anyone can create a new business to supply more tokens. Sure there’s short term scarcity: energy, GPUs, cooling, but this is a scale up problem. More token demand = more data center build = more energy plant build. This downward pressure will also keep frontier private model prices in check.
Differentiation seems to be happening at the harness level, whereby we can expect token spend to be a metric to compete on and drive down for the customer (at least hoping tools in the application space don’t continue token based billing as their primary revenue stream).
These are not short term hyper growth forces, but a fundamental alignment of incentives.
Eh, steel manning the role it kind of just sounds like a TPM. When roles are crisply defined, a good TPM has been a life changer for my job satisfaction. You basically get permission to farm out a lot of the most annoying parts of the job--status update forums, timeline management, and dependency wrangling--to another person who does it full time.
Now that we have pretty decent open source models, anyone can create a new business to supply more tokens. Sure there’s short term scarcity: energy, GPUs, cooling, but this is a scale up problem. More token demand = more data center build = more energy plant build. This downward pressure will also keep frontier private model prices in check.
Differentiation seems to be happening at the harness level, whereby we can expect token spend to be a metric to compete on and drive down for the customer (at least hoping tools in the application space don’t continue token based billing as their primary revenue stream).
These are not short term hyper growth forces, but a fundamental alignment of incentives.