Everytime someone loses money on a bad bet in a prediction market, it's an opportunity for them to learn something about ~~counter-party risk~~ adverse selection. You could easily make the argument that the more people are losing in prediction markets, the more learning is happening.
a realistic response? What's a realistic response to "how many calories are in an avocado?"
If you are counting calories, you don't want the answer to "how many calories are in the average avocado?", you want to know how many calories are in this avocado. Remember that bodyweight is roughly linear with BMR, so a 10% error in calorie counting is an extra 10% of bodyweight.
1) The US has run 13,000 missions over Iran in the last month. Thats a lot of targets.
2) The initial US degradation of Iraqi capabilities was much much greater in gulf war 1.
3) F15s are not stealth fighters.
4) This is 35 years later.
5) "strategic bombing" of air defenses is mostly accomplished with our cruise missiles. We'll take out any air defenses we find, but you don't fly non-stealth planes over SAM batteries intentionally.
We haven't even started a ground campaign. If one plane is downed per 13000 missions, I think we're doing ok.
I see an opportunity for much more reasonable legislation since this is a thing that the gov already controls.