Yes -- definitely that's the value prop. But it's not binary all or nothing.
AI automation is about trust (honestly, same as human delegation).
You give it access to a little bit of data, just enough to do a basic useful thing or two, then you give it a bit of responsibility.
Then as you build confidence and trust, you give it a little more access, and allow it to take on a little more responsibility. Naturally, if it blows up in your face, you dial back access and responsibility quick.
As an analogy, folks drive their cars on the highway at 65-85+ MPH. Fatality rate goes up somewhat exponentially with speed and anything 60+ is considerably more deadly than ~30mph.
We're all so confident that a wheel won't randomly fall off because we've built so much trust with the quality of modern automobiles. But it does happen (I had a friend in high-school who's wheel popped off on a 45 mph road -- naturally he was going 50-55 IIRC).
In the early 1900s people would have thought you had a death wish to drive this fast. 25-30mph was normal then -- the automobiles at the time just weren't developed enough to be trusted at higher speeds.
My previous comment was about the fact that it is possible to build this sandboxing/bastion layer with live web accounts that allows for fine grained control over how much data you want to expose to the ai.
You don't give it your "prod email", you give it a secondary email you created specifically for it.
You don't give it your "prod Paypal", you create a secondary paypal (perhaps a paypal account registered using the same email as the secondary email you gave it).
You don't give it your "prod bank checking account", you spin up a new checking with Discover.com (or any other online back that takes <5min to create a new checking account). With online banking it is fairly straightforward to set up fully-sandboxed financial accounts. You can, for example, set up one-way flows from your "prod checking account" to your "bastion checking account." Where prod can push/pull cash to the bastion checking, but the bastion cannot push/pull (or even see) the prod checking acct. The "permissions" logic that supports this is handled by the Nacha network (which governs how ACH transfers can flow). Banks cannot... ignore the permissions... they quickly (immediately) lose their ability to legally operate as a bank if they do...
Now then, I'm not trying to handwave away the serious challenges associated with this technology. There's also the threat of reputational risks etc since it is operating as your agent -- heck potentially even legal risk if things get into the realm of "oops this thing accidentally committed financial fraud."
I'm simply saying that the idea of least privileged permissions applies to online accounts as well as everything else.
Hi Kypro this is very interesting perspective. Can you reach out to me? I'd like to discuss what you're observing with you a bit in private as it relates heavily to a project I'm currently working on. My contact info is on my profile. Pls shoot me a connection request and just say you're kypro from HN :)
Or is there a good way for me to contact you? Your profile doesn't list anything and your handle doesn't seem to have much of an online footprint.
Lastly, I promise I'm not some weirdo, I'm a realperson™ -- just check my HN comment history. A lot of people in the AI community have met me in person and can confirm (swyx etc).
Granted, that article refers to retrieval specifically being one major way we learn, and of course learning incorporates many dimensions. But it seems a bit self-evident that retrieval occurs heavily during active problem solving (ie "generation"), and less so during passive learning (ie: just reading/consuming info).
From personal experience, I always noticed I learned much more by doing than by consuming documentation alone.
But yes, I admit this assumption and my own personal experience/bias is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me...
2) Regarding the "optimal AI productivity process" (AI Generates > Human Validates > Loop)
I'm using Karpathy's productivity loop described in his AI startup school talk last month here:
Does this help make it more concrete Swyx (name dropping you here since I'm pretty sure you've got a social listener set for your handle ;)? Love to hear your thoughts straight from the hip based on your own personal experiences.
Full disclosure: I'm not trying to get too academic about this. In all honestly I'm really trying to get to an informal theory that's useful and practical enough that it can be turned into a regular business process for rapid professional development.
Hi Swyx I always appreciate your insights, something you wrote really resonated with a personal theory I've been developing:
>"While I never use AI for personal writing (because I have a strong belief in writing to think)"
The optimal AI productivity process is starting to look like:
AI Generates > Human Validates > Loop
Yet cognitive generation is how humans learn and develop cognitive strength, as well as how they maintain such strength.
Similar to how physical activity is how muscles/bone density/etc grow, and how body tissues maintain.
Physical technology freed us from hard physical labor that kept our bodies in shape -- at a cost of physical atrophy.
AI seems to have a similar effect for our minds. AI will accelerate our cognitive productivity, and allow for cognitive convenience -- at a cost of cognitive atrophy.
At present we must be intentional about building/maintaining physical strength (dedicated strength training, cardio, etc).
Soon we will need to be intentional about building/maintaining cognitive strength.
I suspect the workday/week of the future will be split on AI-on-a-leash work for optimal productivity, with carve-outs for dedicated AI-enhanced-learning solely for building/maintaining cognitive health (where productivity is not the goal, building/maintaining cognition is). Similar to how we carve out time for working out.
What are your thoughts on this? Based on what you wrote above, it seems you have similar feelings?
Hi Paul, been following the aider project for about a year now to develop an understanding of how to build SWE agents.
I was at the AI Engineering Summit in NYC last week and met an (extremely senior) staff ai engineer doing somewhat unbelievable things with aider. Shocking things tbh.
Is there a good way to share stories about real-world aider projects like this with you directly (if I can get approval from him)? Not sure posting on public forum is appropriate but I think you would be really interested to hear how people are using this tool at the edge.
You're forgetting about growth. Is UBI possible today? Probably not.
Quick googling (so take my numbers with a grain of salt but my point is to illustrate not be exact) says US economic growth the last 10 years has been ~45%. If that trend continues today's $3 trillion budget could be $4.5 trillion in 2030 - UBI starting to look much more possible. Another decade of 50% growth and the budget is $6.75 trillion in 2040 -- UBI seems absolutely possible. Sure there's population growth to consider as well, but you get my point where at some point the math works pretty well.
AI automation is about trust (honestly, same as human delegation).
You give it access to a little bit of data, just enough to do a basic useful thing or two, then you give it a bit of responsibility.
Then as you build confidence and trust, you give it a little more access, and allow it to take on a little more responsibility. Naturally, if it blows up in your face, you dial back access and responsibility quick.
As an analogy, folks drive their cars on the highway at 65-85+ MPH. Fatality rate goes up somewhat exponentially with speed and anything 60+ is considerably more deadly than ~30mph.
We're all so confident that a wheel won't randomly fall off because we've built so much trust with the quality of modern automobiles. But it does happen (I had a friend in high-school who's wheel popped off on a 45 mph road -- naturally he was going 50-55 IIRC).
In the early 1900s people would have thought you had a death wish to drive this fast. 25-30mph was normal then -- the automobiles at the time just weren't developed enough to be trusted at higher speeds.
My previous comment was about the fact that it is possible to build this sandboxing/bastion layer with live web accounts that allows for fine grained control over how much data you want to expose to the ai.