Hi, I'm the same age as you, born in the UK but have been working in USA for a few years now. I am also feeling burned out by my job, spend a lot of time fantasizing about retiring early.
This is a shot in the dark but I feel like a lot of my mental state has been caused by covid, missing regularly seeing my friends, family and the alienating nature of interacting with my colleagues only via screen. Because of this I have resolved to not make any large decisions until covid is completely over, since it's hard for me to assess how much differently I will feel once things get back to normal. Till then I save as much as possible to give myself more options.
I think it will be great if they can create some mechanism to compensate people for their data, I just suspect many people conflate the value of their data as training data and say how much they might charge a client to write some similar code.
I'm guessing that since there are hundreds of millions of repositories the typical marginal value of someone's contributions would optimistically be on the order of a few dollars. But since the consensus on HN is that they spend very little time actually coding and there is no use-case for copilot, perhaps it worth a lot less.
Yes, if you don't condition on the past moves then the distribution you're modeling is where you randomly pick a 1100 player to choose each move as you say. What I'm saying is that there will be no wisdom of the crowd effect.
This only true if you select the most likely move instead of sampling from the probability distribution over possible moves. In the latter case there is no reason for there to be a wisdom of the crowd effect.
If you sample from the probability distribution you are modeling, there is no reason it shouldn't play like a 1100 player.