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The expected value of the game is positive regardless of Ballmer’s strategy

gukov.dev
193 points·by gukoff·2 वर्ष पहले·160 comments

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gukoff
·4 माह पहले·discuss
How do you run these models on AMD GPUs?
gukoff
·7 माह पहले·discuss
Timestamps are conversation metadata and don't need to be fed to the LLM and require tokens.
gukoff
·12 माह पहले·discuss
Draw.io already allows creating editable PNGs and SVGs: it embeds the diagram definition in the image metadata. You can then import this image like you would import any other .drawio diagram

The VSCode integration is the cherry on top. All files with the correct extension (such as xxx.drawio.png) will automatically open for edit in the draw.io UI embedded in the IDE.

I use this feature often to build on top of the previously made diagrams.
gukoff
·पिछला वर्ष·discuss
> Prof Penadés' said the tool had in fact done more than successfully replicating his research.

> "It's not just that the top hypothesis they provide was the right one," he said.

> "It's that they provide another four, and all of them made sense.

> "And for one of them, we never thought about it, and we're now working on that."

The Google's co-scientist still seems to make a useful assistant.
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
That's very impressive - how do you do this? I also see an IDE screen with the debugger in your other article about telegram - presumably also HTML/CSS
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
Thank you, this is very interesting
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
This really depends on the pure strategies that you choose.

The initial set of strategies wasn't very diverse and compensated for the binary search "weaknesses" on the ends of the spectrum by sometimes guessing 1 and 98.

But after adding some more pure strategies to the set, we've got a far better mixed strategy that prefers the numbers between 28-70 as the first pick: https://github.com/gukoff/ballmer_puzzle#winning-strategy
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
Interesting! What about the worst case? And which kinds of strategies did you pick?
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
I don't view the original problem this way, but let's think about it!

> the spread on that surely goes over the 0 line.

Do you imagine starting with $1 or $1000? :)

Let's add a condition that Ballmer has infinite money, we start with a specific budget, and we can't continue playing if we exceed budget randomly changes after each game,

In the game where you start with $N, win $1 with probability p > 0.5 and lose $1 otherwise, the chance of eventually losing all your money is (p/(1-p))^N. [1]

So, the ruin chance actually becomes exponentially lower the more money you have at the start.

The steps in the random walk above belong to a simple, Bernoulli-like random distribution. Meanwhile the mixed strategy is a more complex discrete random variable because it can do more steps than just +1 and -1.

However, I believe that the same principle applies for the mixed strategy.

If you zoom out and consider "batches" of steps, you can apply the Central limit theorem and see that all these random walks work roughly the same. The caveat being that you need a large enough starting budget to "zoom out" :)

Granted, the standard deviation for the mixed strategy is ~$1. I would guesstimate that if you start with ~$1000, there's no way you will ever lose your money.

> What would be more interesting is to monte carlo simulate this strategy and look at the win/loss distribution. Presumably the choice is then not so clear cut.

Agree, this would be a nice demonstration! I will think about doing this next time I get a couple of hours of free time.

[1] https://math.stackexchange.com/a/153141/65143
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
Thanks for spotting it! Exactly right, I fixed the text.
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
You can actually do well combining different flavors of binary search! I commented a solution on the parent post if you're curious.
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
You forget that the quick guesses bring you more than $1!

As the original article says, on average you can win $0.20. But that's indeed the upper bound if we speak of the adversarial number picking.
gukoff
·2 वर्ष पहले·discuss
Yes, you can counter the adversarial choices and win at least 7 cents per game :)

https://gukov.dev/puzzles/math/2024/09/05/steve-ballmer-was-...
gukoff
·3 वर्ष पहले·discuss
He means the last examples about Nintendo.com
gukoff
·3 वर्ष पहले·discuss
Can you adjust vector magnitude prior to the normalization? If the max coordinate C is close enough to 0, divide all coordinates by C.
gukoff
·3 वर्ष पहले·discuss
From your experience, where does it bring value?
gukoff
·3 वर्ष पहले·discuss
What is the idea of "data push"?
gukoff
·3 वर्ष पहले·discuss
Exactly. And stretching may lead to the further injuries if your muscles are weak and can't support the safe movement during the full range of motion. Especially if you already have hypermobility.

The author should talk to a knowledgeable physiotherapist, not a chiropractor...
gukoff
·3 वर्ष पहले·discuss
The only habit you need are the regular strength exercises, especially for the stability of the back muscles.

Please, please forget about the stretches or "ergonomics" if you don't excersise. It will not help you in the long run.