> For equal capability tokens, there has been about a 10x drop in cost every 6 months
Is this still happening? Opus 4.5 was six months ago, can you get its capabilities for 1/10 cost now? Are we on track to get the same for 4.6 in a couple months?
For someone who purports not to care about the film, you seem very familiar with the discourse about it. (I have seen zero experts, or anyone really, discussing boat design.)
Thank you for this term. In my view, the belief that AGI singularly will rapidly destroy us because it will think 10,000 times faster than us is a form of thinkism.
> Last mile is already “solved” with the little robots that drive around cities, no need for hands.
And yet we haven’t seen widespread adoption because they can’t handle stairs, steep slopes, streets without sidewalks, sidewalks with mud, or a hundred other real world challenges
Sometimes it’s hard to objectively tell whether two animals don’t appear to reproduce because they are unable genetically, or technically able still but behaviorally unwilling in normal natural circumstances, or we don’t know but we just haven’t observed it for that particular combo, etc
> If your job is to translate requirements into code manually - and that's it - you're the generalist travel agent.
I’ve been a full-stack web programmer at five different companies over the last fifteen years, big and small, e-commerce and B2B, junior to senior to staff, and that has never fully described my responsibilities.
I'm also curious what results we would get if SWE came up with a new set of 500 problems to run all these models against, to guard against overfitting.
Won’t those models gradually become outdated (for anything related to events that happen after the model was trained, new code languages or framework versions, etc) if no one is around to continually re-train them?
There is a hard limit on the number of atomic elements, and an even smaller limit on the number of soluble compounds that facilitate chemical reactions, and water is demonstrably both the best and the most common in the universe.
So while it may be possible for life to exist without water, any alternatives should be reasonably expected to be even more rare than water-based life
Think more broadly than that single example. Perhaps humans will always be interested in economic activity that involves interacting with other humans, regardless of what the robots can do.
> It’s not impossible to imagine that that set might shrink to being pretty much empty within the next ten years.
No but it’s also not impossible to imagine the opposite. AI beat humans at chess decades ago but there are more humans generating income from chess today than there were before Deep Blue.
Counter argument: if that script already exists as the first result for your question on stackoverflow, then it’s less impressive to think of it as an advanced search engine with improved natural language processing.