Bracing for the Vanilla Boom(sapiens.org)
sapiens.org
Bracing for the Vanilla Boom
https://www.sapiens.org/culture/madagascar-vanilla-boom/
71 comments
For a somewhat deeper anthropological dive into this, although in a very accessible way, you might check out the book "cows, pigs, Wars, and witches". One of the case studies is a culture with a boom-bust cycle much like this.
> People with a sudden access of money will often splurge on bizarre displays of wealth, sports cars and motorcycles, fancy clothing they rarely wear; etc. Often not because they have a long-held desire for the toys they are buying but because they have a cultural template of what wealth and success should look like that they are trying to act out.
It's astounding that many people still aren't self-aware enough to realize this and take appropriate action when they gain a lot of wealth. Seems like common and easily accessible knowledge at this point. I suspect it's a form of evolutionary wealth redistribution that's built in to the human genome.
It's astounding that many people still aren't self-aware enough to realize this and take appropriate action when they gain a lot of wealth. Seems like common and easily accessible knowledge at this point. I suspect it's a form of evolutionary wealth redistribution that's built in to the human genome.
> It's astounding that many people still aren't self-aware enough to realize this and take appropriate action when they gain a lot of wealth.
Who says they're not self-aware?
The article explicitly mentions it's unsafe to take the large amounts of cash traveling, which it notes "are usually a day’s trek away". It's not uncommon for developing-world banks to be untrustworthy, as well.
Spending it instead of having it stolen or being murdered for it might be the right approach here.
Who says they're not self-aware?
The article explicitly mentions it's unsafe to take the large amounts of cash traveling, which it notes "are usually a day’s trek away". It's not uncommon for developing-world banks to be untrustworthy, as well.
Spending it instead of having it stolen or being murdered for it might be the right approach here.
Wouldn't lavishly spending it still be an issue as you're likely to stand out / be targeted?
Let alone that stealing stuff might not be as convenient as cash, but still desirable...
Let alone that stealing stuff might not be as convenient as cash, but still desirable...
You're right, although I was mostly talking about that part of the comment in isolation. There's definitely strategy in spending as well.
There are a number of confounding factors, class and education for instance. It can be hard to be rational about large amounts of money especially if most of your socialization around finances comes from advertising that explicitly pushes a consumerist mindset on you.
Delayed gratification is a huge predictor of wealth.
It actually makes tons of sense to invest in non-cash goods to trade later when there's a bust. But no matter what form your profits are in, the big risk in Madagascar (besides the cyclones) seems to be the gangs. Drivers regularly get murdered driving across territories controlled by gangs. There's really not much law enforcement to speak of and the country is insanely poor, considering all this vanilla commerce.
The vanilla trade often takes advantage of the people living in vulnerable communities and doesn't pay a living wage. If we all want ethical access to quality vanilla, we need to start asking buyers to start sourcing certified fair trade (or better) vanilla, and to work to improve the fair trade system.
The vanilla trade often takes advantage of the people living in vulnerable communities and doesn't pay a living wage. If we all want ethical access to quality vanilla, we need to start asking buyers to start sourcing certified fair trade (or better) vanilla, and to work to improve the fair trade system.
>The vanilla trade often takes advantage of the people living in vulnerable communities and doesn't pay a living wage. If we all want ethical access to quality vanilla, we need to start asking buyers to start sourcing certified fair trade (or better) vanilla, and to work to improve the fair trade system.
How will that help if the problem is gangs?
How will that help if the problem is gangs?
Less money means less power.
If it pays better to work in the legal vanilla trade than the dangerous work of being in a gang, people will typically not choose to be in a gang.
I'd argue that it is just like drugs; you can make a lot more working the street than in a cubical. That's why some do it in the first place, the risk of prison time doesn't matter, because when you get out, you'd still have more money than if you worked in a cubical.
Most people selling drugs make around minimum wage in the US. What makes it attractive is you don't pay taxes, a small percentage get rich, and most people have few options.
I would assume the most gang members in Madagascar are making even less.
I would assume the most gang members in Madagascar are making even less.
To me this means vanilla prices are being manipulated.
If the farmers themself are not demanding so much money, then who is? Someone is artificially restricting supply, or inflating prices.
Wonder how long it will go on before it crashes....
If the farmers themself are not demanding so much money, then who is? Someone is artificially restricting supply, or inflating prices.
Wonder how long it will go on before it crashes....
it’s not being manipulated, what you’re seeing as “the farmer wasn’t willing to accept that much” is probably a little bit of hyperbole with a few anecdotes.
The more interesting bit is that farmers are not directly setting the price they will be paid. There’s clearly a huge information assymetry, so the pricing is necessarily going to be dictated by the purchasers.
Given that all of the purchasers know the same thing, they will know approximately what the actual market price will be. Before they have talked to any farmers. They don’t need to talk to any other purchasers. They have all of the required information. So when the legal market period starts all of the purchasers will arrive knowing what a reasonable price will be this season.
From a farmers point of view though, what happens is this:
* You take your beans to the market
* you are offered money for the beans. Sometimes you are offered 100 times as much. You have no idea why.
The more interesting bit is that farmers are not directly setting the price they will be paid. There’s clearly a huge information assymetry, so the pricing is necessarily going to be dictated by the purchasers.
Given that all of the purchasers know the same thing, they will know approximately what the actual market price will be. Before they have talked to any farmers. They don’t need to talk to any other purchasers. They have all of the required information. So when the legal market period starts all of the purchasers will arrive knowing what a reasonable price will be this season.
From a farmers point of view though, what happens is this:
* You take your beans to the market
* you are offered money for the beans. Sometimes you are offered 100 times as much. You have no idea why.
If you want to manipulate a market that big you’d better have very deep pockets or be willing to take a very large loss. It’s easy to drive up the price of something, buy lots of it. It’s easy to drop the price of something, sell down your stockpile. The only way to make money by buying lots of something and then selling loads of it later is by successfully predicting that future demand will be higher than current demand.
Or buy most of crop that is the right size for market demand. Will people pay 5p more for a chocolate bar instead of going without, for sure. So, buy all the chocolate. If there's no one else to buy from and you have no morals then you've won.
I think someone did this with a large portion (several tenths) of the [European?] cocoa bean supply.
I think someone did this with a large portion (several tenths) of the [European?] cocoa bean supply.
That’s really, really difficult. You’re relying on no one else figuring out what you’re doing and exploiting that knowledge.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
Silver Thursday was an event that occurred in the United States in the silver commodity markets on Thursday, March 27, 1980, following the Hunt brothers' attempt at cornering the silver market. A subsequent steep fall in silver prices led to panic on commodity and futures exchanges.
Porsche makes more VW stock available to desperate short-sellers
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/oct/29/vw-volkswag...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
Silver Thursday was an event that occurred in the United States in the silver commodity markets on Thursday, March 27, 1980, following the Hunt brothers' attempt at cornering the silver market. A subsequent steep fall in silver prices led to panic on commodity and futures exchanges.
Porsche makes more VW stock available to desperate short-sellers
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/oct/29/vw-volkswag...
It seems that the Hunts were nobbled, the changes to the rules they were trading under, the federal reserve instructing banks not to lend them money, etc.?
http://web.pdx.edu/~jjackson/HuntSilver.html is a useful synopsis.
http://web.pdx.edu/~jjackson/HuntSilver.html is a useful synopsis.
The farmers generally know that more money is better than less money, even if they will ultimately spend most in what we might see as a frivolous fashion.
If anyone was gaming the market on this level, they would be giving fewer proceeds to the uninformed farmer, not more.
If anyone was gaming the market on this level, they would be giving fewer proceeds to the uninformed farmer, not more.
[deleted]
It seems like a system of phone money transfer (something like M-Pesa) would be pretty helpful there.
The problem I suspect is that the local banking system isn’t super great, needing enough money to buy a smart phone in order to accept payment seems risky.
M-Pesa doesn't need smartphones. Most farmers probably are already using dumb feature phones.
Neat!
But does it require a bank account (which was my main concern)? Per http://www.afd.fr/en/developing-mobile-banking-madagascar only 5% of Malagasy had access to a bank account in 2014.
But does it require a bank account (which was my main concern)? Per http://www.afd.fr/en/developing-mobile-banking-madagascar only 5% of Malagasy had access to a bank account in 2014.
I'm not sure it requires a bank account. People can go by the same stall they bought their sim card from and put money on their account. One of the benefits is that it brings people into the financial system that otherwise don't have access.
People have access to the financial system by virtue of having actual currency.
The question is how you move physical currency out of a payment system, if you don't have actual access to a bank. Essentially if you have "money" in any kind of non-cashable form you can't use it to buy anything. So being paid electronically in an environment where most people you interact with only accept cash/goods is essentially the same as not having money.
The ability to put money into any kind of electronic payment system is, if anything, less important than the ability to withdraw it, especially if you're in an environment that is still dominated by cash payments.
The question is how you move physical currency out of a payment system, if you don't have actual access to a bank. Essentially if you have "money" in any kind of non-cashable form you can't use it to buy anything. So being paid electronically in an environment where most people you interact with only accept cash/goods is essentially the same as not having money.
The ability to put money into any kind of electronic payment system is, if anything, less important than the ability to withdraw it, especially if you're in an environment that is still dominated by cash payments.
Most cell phone connections in developing world are prepaid. There is a well established system of vendors who accept currency and credit your phone airtime balance. M-Pesa leverages the same system by turning them into banking agents. You can deposit and withdraw funds by visiting your neighborhood grocer.
There are lots of agents where you can withdraw your money, plus many merchants will take MPESA directly.
Cell phone banking is wide spread in Madagascar. Where there is reception...
I cook at home and, for comparison, I usually buy vanilla at Penzey's. A large bottle of vanilla cost $28, maybe less, and it lasts me a year or so. A month ago, I went for a new bottle and it was listed at $50.
I'm getting near the end of the half-pound of Mexican vanilla I bought just before prices went totally nuts (that packet of beans cost me $55). Not sure what I'm going to do when I run out.
One factor not mentioned in the article is the increased demand from industrial users. Food processors having been trying to replace artificial flavors with natural, and there isn't enough vanilla to go around. Global production is actually quite small, compared to say coffee or chocolate. And it seems unnecessary. Synthetic vanillin is identical to real vanillin. Admittedly, it lacks the additional secondary flavor chemicals that make real vanilla tastier, but does that really matter to Jell-O pudding?
One factor not mentioned in the article is the increased demand from industrial users. Food processors having been trying to replace artificial flavors with natural, and there isn't enough vanilla to go around. Global production is actually quite small, compared to say coffee or chocolate. And it seems unnecessary. Synthetic vanillin is identical to real vanillin. Admittedly, it lacks the additional secondary flavor chemicals that make real vanilla tastier, but does that really matter to Jell-O pudding?
Consumers enjoy patting themselves on the back by feeding their children all natural food. As absurd as it is the "natural" label carries a lot of weight with suburban soccer moms (and probably others as well)
This is a super neat article.
I do wonder if some of the big asset purchases (the motorbike example) are also to act as a non-bank money store? Much easier to lock up a bike than a pile of money, etc.
I do wonder if some of the big asset purchases (the motorbike example) are also to act as a non-bank money store? Much easier to lock up a bike than a pile of money, etc.
This makes a lot of sense and seems obvious, actually. I'm surprised the author didn't make that connection, especially while pointing out that sometimes the fancy motorbike would be owned by an old Grandpa who had no intention of riding it, and rather spent all day polishing it (that is, trying to mitigate depreciation).
Not as fun an article? Or at least maybe they didn't think it was?
I think the entire thing was interesting and could have stood on its own, but maybe that conceit provided a thread to tie the article together?
Also, in response to the M-Pesa comment, I did a quick googling, and it looks like as of 2014 only 5% of Malagasy had a bank account at all.
I think the entire thing was interesting and could have stood on its own, but maybe that conceit provided a thread to tie the article together?
Also, in response to the M-Pesa comment, I did a quick googling, and it looks like as of 2014 only 5% of Malagasy had a bank account at all.
Yes, this is quite common around the world where there aren't banking institutions or if the local currency is too untrustworthy to hold for longer periods of time. I have relatives in eastern Turkey that have been perpetually building one house or another in a piecemeal fashion(a wall here, a wall there, etc), as money comes in, for the past 40+ years.
That piecemeal house building is also a great way to dodge property taxes and other taxes (income from black labor), as you only pay for finished houses and the contractors in cash at least in some countries. The phenomenon is very common in Arab cities in Israel as well.
In the rural South, lots of people do this with guns.
Guns are easy to sell, but you don’t want to sell them. They hold their value but you’re emotionally invested just enough not trade them unless you have a true need.
It’s an informal banking system, complete with unwritten rules about how you should offer a gun back to the person you bought it from before selling it yourself.
Guns are easy to sell, but you don’t want to sell them. They hold their value but you’re emotionally invested just enough not trade them unless you have a true need.
It’s an informal banking system, complete with unwritten rules about how you should offer a gun back to the person you bought it from before selling it yourself.
Seems to me like the farmers need to form a futures market to even out the boom and bust cycles.
Funny to see this article. It's been years since I had to buy vanilla extract at the store. Today I had to get some and was shocked to pay $13 for 2 oz. I don't remember it being so expensive but now I know why.
The NYT covered this topic in late August 2018: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/30/world/africa/...
I expected this to be about World Of Warcraft Vanilla ... I probably need to get a life :-)
Unstated in all this lavish spending is that there must be some very successful merchants taking advantage of other people's poor spending habits. Someone is shipping all that stuff out to them.
A lot of libertarian and capitalist faith in the market relies on individuals having the capacity for "private property".
This is (in part) an example of how that thinking breaks down as that assumption breaks down.
If enough people cannot have private property, can the market function as desired by those who believe in it?
This is (in part) an example of how that thinking breaks down as that assumption breaks down.
If enough people cannot have private property, can the market function as desired by those who believe in it?
There's not really an alternative though. If the country lacks the ability to implement a "small government" system like libertarianism, then it definitely can't implement a "big government" system like communism.
Isn't most vanillin created as a byproduct of the paper industry?
Also, I hope the prices of the real stuff goes down, at least for a few months.
Also, I hope the prices of the real stuff goes down, at least for a few months.
I'm actually surprised by how good the wood pulp version tastes. Unless I'm buying straight up vanilla ice cream, I don't mind the wood pulp version of vanilla at all. If it's vanilla with stuff mixed into it, I won't really be able to tell the difference.
I bought a bottle of synthetic and a bottle of organic real vanilla extract recently, and did a taste/smell test.
The synthetic smelled and tasted like vanilla-flavored motor oil and rubbing alcohol. It was terrible, and cheap, and plentiful. I can't imagine what I could use it in to mask that chemical flavor. Ugh.
The synthetic smelled and tasted like vanilla-flavored motor oil and rubbing alcohol. It was terrible, and cheap, and plentiful. I can't imagine what I could use it in to mask that chemical flavor. Ugh.
You drank straight vanilla extract? This seems like determining how good a cake will be by eating raw flour.
The aromas and flavors of vanilla extract are exactly what you will taste in your finished product. They don't really transform into anything, the ethanol and water just evaporate and leave you with the dissolved solids from the bean. Tasting it in raw or extract form tells you what it'll taste like in a finished product.
Flour, on the other hand, varies greatly in its end result based on the genetic variant, grade quality, and milling, in combination with amount of water and the mechanical process of mixing. You can determine the effect on the cake by looking at the type and grade of flour, along with its moisture content. I wouldn't advise eating it.
Flour, on the other hand, varies greatly in its end result based on the genetic variant, grade quality, and milling, in combination with amount of water and the mechanical process of mixing. You can determine the effect on the cake by looking at the type and grade of flour, along with its moisture content. I wouldn't advise eating it.
I don't think that's how food chemistry works.
The vanilla is going to interact with hundreds of volatile compounds during cooking while going through chemical changes. These things change the overall flavor. There's so many different things that can change how the end flavor comes through. Time and time again, it's been shown that the real vs fake vanilla thing doesn't matter for more complex foods (read: baked goods where maillard reactions are going to be common and the volatile aromatics present in real vanilla get destroyed)
{1}https://www.epicurious.com/expert-advice/real-vanilla-extrac... {2}https://www.cooksillustrated.com/taste_tests/455-vanilla-ext...
From- a reformed professional chef.
The vanilla is going to interact with hundreds of volatile compounds during cooking while going through chemical changes. These things change the overall flavor. There's so many different things that can change how the end flavor comes through. Time and time again, it's been shown that the real vs fake vanilla thing doesn't matter for more complex foods (read: baked goods where maillard reactions are going to be common and the volatile aromatics present in real vanilla get destroyed)
{1}https://www.epicurious.com/expert-advice/real-vanilla-extrac... {2}https://www.cooksillustrated.com/taste_tests/455-vanilla-ext...
From- a reformed professional chef.
In ice cream, cocktails, whipped egg whites, and other foods that are minimally processed, the complexity of real vanilla makes a big difference. I'll eventually make some batches of cookies and small cakes and compare.
the synthetic is designed best to work as a cooking ingredient https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1081/FRI-120003417?sr...
It's my understanding that modern "imitation" vanilla is chemically identical to the natural stuff. Even so, I buy the regular...
I read in an article that real vanilla only matters for applications that don't involve high heat, as the other flavors in a real vanilla bean get cooked out. Imitation is just as good for most purposes.
Just remembered, it was a food lab article:
https://sweets.seriouseats.com/2013/12/taste-test-is-better-...
Food lab is my go to for food related articles interesting details behind the science and process of cooking.
Just remembered, it was a food lab article:
https://sweets.seriouseats.com/2013/12/taste-test-is-better-...
Food lab is my go to for food related articles interesting details behind the science and process of cooking.
Reading the article, they talk a lot about the alcohol cooking away leaving you tasting less alcohol in the product. Now my question is, where do I buy vanilla that comes in 35% alcohol solution? I can only ever remember seeing dry vanilla.
Amazon or many supermarkets?
https://www.amazon.com/McCormick-Natural-Vanilla-Extract-Glu...
https://www.amazon.com/McCormick-Natural-Vanilla-Extract-Glu...
It doubt that imitation vanilla copies all the chemicals that are present in natural vanilla, as there must be hundreds. With artificial flavorings they usually only copy the most dominant component.
You're right, but vanillin (C8H8O3) is very dominant (even in natural vanilla) and, as natural vanilla is cooked, a lot of the other compounds tend to be destroyed.
Destroyed? Broken down to other chemicals, surely. Or are we cooking at 10000K.
I love the concept behind the chameleon pasted with money.
Though I do feel a bit sorry for the chameleon. It probably wasn't too impressed.
Though I do feel a bit sorry for the chameleon. It probably wasn't too impressed.
[deleted]
The Malagasy vanilla farmers behavior in the face of a windfall is not that different from many Americans actions in similar circumstances from what I've seen. People with a sudden access of money will often splurge on bizarre displays of wealth, sports cars and motorcycles, fancy clothing they rarely wear; etc. Often not because they have a long-held desire for the toys they are buying but because they have a cultural template of what wealth and success should look like that they are trying to act out.