We’re all in this together: Dr Fauci says world has failed India as Covid surges(theguardian.com)
theguardian.com
We’re all in this together: Dr Fauci says world has failed India as Covid surges
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/28/were-all-in-this-together-dr-fauci-says-world-has-failed-india-as-covid-cases-surge
2 comments
Local policies won't work on this one, this is a worldwide problem. You can stem the tide, for a while and then it's back to square one unless we tackle the whole world all at once.
For context, in India there's about 27,000 deaths per day in a normal year (napkin math: 7.344 deaths per 1000 from https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/death-rate, multiplied by the indian population size of 1.390 billion, divided by 365 days per year). Currently there are around 2700 deaths being attributed to COVID-19 per day.
I am much more concerned about poverty, starvation, death, and decreased non-COVID vaccination rates, than I am about COVID itself, for a country like India. SARS-CoV-2 primarily kills the very old and the very unhealthy, particularly diseases of modernity (this is not a value judgement but rather a statement of fact).
The indian life expectancy is somewhere around 68 years. Compare that to 78.7 in the US (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm). We've seen in the US how we likely caused iatrogenic harm in places like New York by practicing early invasive ventilation. We've seen (although we don't have the true long-term data yet) the impacts of unnecessarily suspending elective surgeries (such as was done in my state of California for a month despite a total availability of ICU capacity, and the fact that even if there weren't capacity many outpatient surgeries are more valuable than an extra COVID-bed-day)
Here's just one small example of the ramifications of succumbing to fear: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56425115
> It estimates that there have been 228,000 additional deaths of children under five in these six countries due to crucial services, ranging from nutrition benefits to immunisation, being halted.
> It says the number of children being treated for severe malnutrition fell by more than 80% in Bangladesh and Nepal, and immunisation among children dropped by 35% and 65% in India and Pakistan respectively.
> The report also says that child mortality rose the highest in India in 2020 - up by 15.4% - followed by Bangladesh at 13%. Sri Lanka saw the sharpest increase in maternal deaths - 21.5% followed by Pakistan's 21.3%.
It should go without saying that a 15.4% increase in child mortality is NOT a result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which spares children. It's a result of missed medical appointments, decreased non-COVID vaccinations, economic disruption, and the general environment of largely unnecessary and maladaptive fear and anxiety that the populace has collectively been exposed to.
I am much more concerned about poverty, starvation, death, and decreased non-COVID vaccination rates, than I am about COVID itself, for a country like India. SARS-CoV-2 primarily kills the very old and the very unhealthy, particularly diseases of modernity (this is not a value judgement but rather a statement of fact).
The indian life expectancy is somewhere around 68 years. Compare that to 78.7 in the US (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm). We've seen in the US how we likely caused iatrogenic harm in places like New York by practicing early invasive ventilation. We've seen (although we don't have the true long-term data yet) the impacts of unnecessarily suspending elective surgeries (such as was done in my state of California for a month despite a total availability of ICU capacity, and the fact that even if there weren't capacity many outpatient surgeries are more valuable than an extra COVID-bed-day)
Here's just one small example of the ramifications of succumbing to fear: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56425115
> It estimates that there have been 228,000 additional deaths of children under five in these six countries due to crucial services, ranging from nutrition benefits to immunisation, being halted.
> It says the number of children being treated for severe malnutrition fell by more than 80% in Bangladesh and Nepal, and immunisation among children dropped by 35% and 65% in India and Pakistan respectively.
> The report also says that child mortality rose the highest in India in 2020 - up by 15.4% - followed by Bangladesh at 13%. Sri Lanka saw the sharpest increase in maternal deaths - 21.5% followed by Pakistan's 21.3%.
It should go without saying that a 15.4% increase in child mortality is NOT a result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which spares children. It's a result of missed medical appointments, decreased non-COVID vaccinations, economic disruption, and the general environment of largely unnecessary and maladaptive fear and anxiety that the populace has collectively been exposed to.