Europe must be ready when the AI bubble bursts(ft.com)
ft.com
Europe must be ready when the AI bubble bursts
https://www.ft.com/content/0308f405-19ba-4aa8-9df1-40032e5ddc4e
7 comments
https://archive.ph/i5aDH
These articles are insufferable.
Everyone is saying there is an "AI Bubble" and it's going to pop. Yet, no one can actually tell us when, at what prices will it pop, and how long will it take the market to recover (Nasdaq is 5x higher now than dotcom).
If it's going to "pop" but everyone knows it will go way higher than in the future than in 2025, then what exactly is the pop? A buying opportunity?
Everyone who isn't a total idiot will buy when it "pops" and wait it out for massive gains in the future. People writing these articles think the AI bubble will burst stay down forever. They keep citing dotcom but conveniently leave out the fact that tech is far bigger now than in the peak of dotcom.
This is exactly why despite these countless AI bubble burst predictions, the market is still near all time high. I'd like to see these bubble burst people put their money where their mouth is.
Here's my prediction: There will be an AI bubble but when it pops, it will still be way bigger than in December 2025. In other words, I believe we're in 1995 of the dotcom and not 1999.
Everyone is saying there is an "AI Bubble" and it's going to pop. Yet, no one can actually tell us when, at what prices will it pop, and how long will it take the market to recover (Nasdaq is 5x higher now than dotcom).
If it's going to "pop" but everyone knows it will go way higher than in the future than in 2025, then what exactly is the pop? A buying opportunity?
Everyone who isn't a total idiot will buy when it "pops" and wait it out for massive gains in the future. People writing these articles think the AI bubble will burst stay down forever. They keep citing dotcom but conveniently leave out the fact that tech is far bigger now than in the peak of dotcom.
This is exactly why despite these countless AI bubble burst predictions, the market is still near all time high. I'd like to see these bubble burst people put their money where their mouth is.
Here's my prediction: There will be an AI bubble but when it pops, it will still be way bigger than in December 2025. In other words, I believe we're in 1995 of the dotcom and not 1999.
> Yet, no one can actually tell us when, at what prices will it pop, and how long will it take the market to recover
... I mean, yeah, if you could reliably predict _those_, you wouldn't be _telling_ anyone, you'd be busy making billions on options.
"This will break, but we don't know exactly when" is not an unreasonable warning.
> but everyone knows it will go way higher than in the future than in 2025
Does everyone know that?
> People writing these articles think the AI bubble will burst stay down forever. They keep citing dotcom but conveniently leave out the fact that tech is far bigger now than in the peak of dotcom.
I mean, while that is true, it took a very long time (adjusted for inflation, the NASDAQ didn't recover until 2018), and most of the individual companies who were big then are now either gone or obscure (Sun's gone, Yahoo's basically gone, Cisco never recovered, Oracle arguably just about recovered, Amazon did very well). If you'd bought into the NASDAQ the day after dot-com went pop, well, you wouldn't have come out _great_; you'd have been far better off with the S&P500 or another broader index. If you'd bought into any of the dot-com darlings except for Amazon, you'd have been screwed.
And to be clear, not all bubbles recover. Railways never did, say.
... I mean, yeah, if you could reliably predict _those_, you wouldn't be _telling_ anyone, you'd be busy making billions on options.
"This will break, but we don't know exactly when" is not an unreasonable warning.
> but everyone knows it will go way higher than in the future than in 2025
Does everyone know that?
> People writing these articles think the AI bubble will burst stay down forever. They keep citing dotcom but conveniently leave out the fact that tech is far bigger now than in the peak of dotcom.
I mean, while that is true, it took a very long time (adjusted for inflation, the NASDAQ didn't recover until 2018), and most of the individual companies who were big then are now either gone or obscure (Sun's gone, Yahoo's basically gone, Cisco never recovered, Oracle arguably just about recovered, Amazon did very well). If you'd bought into the NASDAQ the day after dot-com went pop, well, you wouldn't have come out _great_; you'd have been far better off with the S&P500 or another broader index. If you'd bought into any of the dot-com darlings except for Amazon, you'd have been screwed.
And to be clear, not all bubbles recover. Railways never did, say.
... I mean, yeah, if you could reliably predict _those_, you wouldn't be _telling_ anyone, you'd be busy making billions on options.
Does everyone know that?
To be clear I mean predicting the timing to any accuracy. That’s notoriously difficult (I’d argue pretty much impossible). A modern economist dropped in 1715 or so would be able to say with certainty that the South Sea Company and associated companies was a bubble, but they would not really be able to predict when it would pop accurately.
RE the Nasdaq, yeah, it recovered in real terms after 18 years. That would be cold comfort to most.
RE the Nasdaq, yeah, it recovered in real terms after 18 years. That would be cold comfort to most.
If they can't predict when, then what's the point? What if it happens 5 years from now? You'll miss out on massive gains.
100% agreed. The AI "bubble" has been "going to pop" for the past year or more. Sounds a lot like Bitcoin, that was definitely popping any second now but actually did not really pop and you can still buy Bitcoin at prices higher than 6 or 12 months ago.
I need people to understand that if everyone thinks something is going to pop then it won't pop because people don't put money in risky assets. Assets only pop when everyone thinks they are absolutely safe and they can never go down in price, like what happened with the housing market.
I need people to understand that if everyone thinks something is going to pop then it won't pop because people don't put money in risky assets. Assets only pop when everyone thinks they are absolutely safe and they can never go down in price, like what happened with the housing market.