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MP_1729

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What AGI can do you for your average enterprise?

metacriticcapital.substack.com
1 points·by MP_1729·5 bulan yang lalu·0 comments

What can still be a reasonable AI bear thesis?

metacriticcapital.substack.com
1 points·by MP_1729·5 bulan yang lalu·1 comments

comments

MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
This is Eliezer Yudkowskyto to blame LMAO, alongside with all the EAs extremists that shifted the Overton Window to think that images can be unsafe.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Because tradition is incredibly important.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Really funny people complaining about classical chess, I don't know which games they have been watching.

Nepo Magnus game 6, Nepo Ding many many games, Nepo Caruana draw on round 14 of candidates. ALL OF THEM WERE TERRIFIC GAMES.

I don't understand what people mean by stagnation
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
I'm in a low-cost country, haha! So the intern is even cheaper.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
25 prompts is the daily limit on o1-preview. And I wrote that script in just one day.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
My 3rd day intern still couldn't do a script o1-preview could do in less than 25 prompts.

OBVIOUSLY a smart OAI employee wouldn't want the public to think they are already replacing high-level humans.

And OBVIOUSLY OAI senior management will want to try to convince AI engineers that might have 2nd-guessings about their work that they aren't developing a replacement for human beings.

But they are.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
That's not how pricing works.

If o1-pro is 10% better than Claude, but you are a guy who makes $300,000 per year, but now can make $330,000 because o1-pro makes you more productive, then it makes sense to give Sam $2,400.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
My new internet is in his 3rd day in the job and he's still behind o1-preview with less than 25 prompts.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Good. Effective Austruism is trying to destroy democratic institutions and it's likely a bigger threat to society than fascism. The pro-progress people needs to organize themselves to stop types like SBF from giving AI to China.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Satya Nadella's Microsoft is such a weird company. It's like there's one side of it that is running with Zuckerberg's "move fast and break things" and the other side is saying "wait, we're the most important software company in the world! Things can't break!"
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
“You want to know how to paint a perfect painting? It's easy. Make yourself perfect and then just paint naturally.” - Robert M. Pirsig

The Musk reasoning here is stupid, but smart. If he makes a superhuman intelligence, he can only ask it "What is dark matter?" and it might figure out.

I have some big problems with this idea, but it isn't 100% stupid. Just 98% stupid.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
It's more like: don't invest $100B in capital when there's still orders of magnitude improvements in software to be made.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Ask stuff like "Check whether there's some correlation between the major economies fiscal primary deficit and GDP growth in the post-pandemic era" and get an answer.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Obviously, I know these timetables.

But there's a light and day difference post-Nov22 than before. Both in the AI race it sparkled, but also in the funding all AI labs have.

If you're expecting GPT-5 by 2026, that's ok. Just very weird to me.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Nope, I'm not
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Was there ever a time when betting that computer scientists would not make better algorithms was a good idea?
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
I'm curious now. Can you give color on what you're doing that you keep hitting boundaries? I suppose it isn't limited by human-attention.
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
they literally launched TODAY a GPT-4 model!
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Two pushbacks.

1- The mania only started post Nov 22. And the huge investments since then didn't meant substantial progress since GPT-4 launch in March 22. 2- We are running out of high quality tokens in 2024. (per Epoch AI)
MP_1729
·2 tahun yang lalu·discuss
I am sure that people at OpenAI, particularly former YC CEO Sam Altman, will be fine, even if they read the bad stuff MP_1729 says around here.