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Show HN: LocksBet – a price comparison tool for prediction markets

locksbet.com
2 points·by at-w·bulan lalu·0 comments

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at-w
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
As have the opioids buprenorphine and Suboxone (buprenorphine/naloxone), which are genuinely useful treatments for addiction and have much lower risks of abuse.
at-w
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
>each of which ended up making a stronger, more dangerous opioid

This is true of some early opioids like heroin, but with e.g. Oxycontin the problem wasn’t a stronger opioid, it's how it ended up being prescribed.

Purdue's marketing led doctors to prescribe it to more people, in higher doses, and for longer. Oxycontin isn't inherently more dangerous than the dose of immediate release oxycodone or morphine that would have an equivalent effect.

Innovation in opioids shouldn't just be written off. They're still the best (and sometimes the only effective) treatment for a huge number of people, and some new opioids like buprenorphine/combos like Suboxone have real advantages.

The lesson from Oxycontin is more about deceptive marketing and prescribing practices.
at-w
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
>Taxes paid by your employer aren't taxes you pay.

They have the same effect in that they reduce what employees take home in a given labour market. Employees are effectively paying them in the same way that people who buy alcohol/cigarettes effectively pay more in states with higher taxes on those items (even though the taxes are technically paid by the stores).

If CA eliminated all income taxes and instead had employers remit the same effective rate for all salaried employees, employers would just reduce salaries accordingly.

As another example, France's income tax rates cap out around/below some high tax US states. But France is still a comparatively high tax jurisdiction largely because they also impose massive payroll taxes on employers which effectively reduce employee wages.
at-w
·9 bulan yang lalu·discuss
>the house take on the major platforms is vastly higher than with traditional sports betting

What kind of markets is this referring to?

Polymarket still charges 0 fees. While Kalshi's fees+spread can approach or even exceed traditional sportsbooks on some markets, neither of them have any interest in banning winning players, as they don't take a side on any bet and directly benefit from more betting activity. Kalshi also pays interest on bets, which can add up on longer term positions.

Betfair has operated with a similar model for decades in the UK and elsewhere.
at-w
·9 bulan yang lalu·discuss
There are lots of places where you can bet against other players now. The older betting markets like Betfair are no longer available in the US, but Kalshi, Polymarket, and others now offer the same kind of two-sided marketplace in the US.
at-w
·10 bulan yang lalu·discuss
>It’s no different from VAT versus sales tax: same result, different math.

There's lots of evidence that tips vary significantly based on the traits of the customer (like the customer's self-esteem and sense of shame: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/ijchm-02...) and the employee asking for the tip (e.g. attractiveness and simple demographic characteristics: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01674...).
at-w
·3 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Is there strong evidence that widespread adversity like a recession increases mental illness? I would guess that those kinds of factors that affect everyone in your social group have a less negative effect mental health wise, as everyone around you is going through the same thing.

At least with measurable indicators of mental health crises like suicide rates, groups that are worst off by most socioeconomic measures tend to have lower suicide rates. For example, the black suicide rate in the US is less than half the white suicide rate and have been through Jim Crow laws and generally much lower SES. From what I've seen, the same is true when comparing across countries, with suicide rates being positively correlated with GDP and income.