What knowledge held before new facts arrive,
Our prior thoughts, though incomplete they be,
Must yield and change as evidence does strive
To shape posterior probability.
Through multiplicative steps we find our way,
As likelihood with prior beliefs combine,
The normalizing constant holds its sway,
While truth emerges, clearer line by line.
O Reverend Bayes, thy theorem divine
Shows how our minds should learn from what we see,
Each observation helps our thoughts refine,
Till posterior wisdom sets uncertainty free.
In statistics' realm, this rule holds fast:
Each present builds upon what's known from past.
The sonnet weaves together the key components of Bayes' theorem - prior probability, likelihood, and how they combine to form the posterior probability. Would you like me to explain any of these statistical concepts in more detail?
Wow, what a way to dismiss the humanity and worth of millions of people.
First of all, in some cases it actually IS a surprise: historical flood data was often quite limited and cities and communities formed before there were accurate estimates of flooding probability, let alone enough understanding of climate change to predict 21st century flooding probability.
If you’re thinking “this side of the street floods, but not the other side, just move across the street”, in many places that is not at all the situation. Miami (avg elevation: 5.9 ft) and New Orleans (elevation from -6.6 to 19.7 ft) are large, dense (by American standards) cities that have existed for over a hundred years. Giant swathes of them are in flood plains. You cannot move a third or more of a city’s residents in any reasonable time—there aren’t enough housing units, never mind the schools and utility capacity and businesses and everything else needed to support a community of people. Plus, most Americans, if they own a home, the vast majority of their net worth is in their house. You pull the insurance, that value vaporizes. Sure, from the perspective of the overall economy, that may seem more efficient. But individuals can use economic efficiency for a down payment. Congratulations, you just vanished billions of dollars of assets! Hope that doesn’t affect the banking system or the local economy!
And they can’t move across the street—to get out of the flood plain they may have to move a significant distance, and people already live in the higher areas of the city: effectively (especially for low and moderate income families) they have to move > 50 miles away. That means they lose their social network, support system, and likely their job. Moving a long distance is expensive, extremely stressful, and can break the few remaining social bonds that we now know are a huge factor in everything from recovering from bankruptcy to whether someone is too disabled to work, to how long people live.
> I feel zero outrage here.
I’m not sure anyone is trying to get you to feel outrage? Like it’s a hard policy problem that greatly affects millions of people. Maybe you could just…care?