I think OAI and Anthropic will be ok for a year or two. But after that If they still continue to earn revenues from selling tokens to firms/software engineers they will be in serious trouble.
The American firms are not demonstrating escape velocity and as long as china offers something somewhat comparable and offers it at a very low price to compensate for any difference in quality, they will not be generating enough in cash flows to finance reinvestment. I highly doubt they’ll be able to continue raising external financing for numerous periods from here on out - they gotta start showing strong financials and that they are running away from the open source models.
And they will deserve it.