as soon as you start calling a group of stock tickers the “magnificent 7” they’re destined to underperform, as that’s a feelings based assessment and many investors will continue to buy the feelings long past the value being fair.
“Do they make money? I don’t know but I know they’re magnificent!”
I mean, technically… I’ve lived in that world. You just go back 25 years. We had the Dewey decimal system (card catalog) and the library, hard copy encyclopedias. You could also ask someone else.
Then we had computerized encyclopedias and search engines that searched the library.
I mean, you had to work for the knowledge. Sometimes you didn’t know something and no one else knew either, so you had to wait until you got a chance to find out, but you would think about it and sometimes you would be right when you found a reference source.
I’ll also note, Wikipedia is a secondary source. It is not a reliable source of truth. It is more like the ‘ask someone else’ alternative than anything else, it’s just ‘someone else’ is a person on the internet who writes Wikipedia articles.
Sure, if we’re going to go that broad. People are already leaning heavily towards learning nothing instead of using Wikipedia.
I guess to me it has to be comparable to be an alternative.
Like, I don’t consider doomscrolling x an alternative to reading Wikipedia but I might consider it an alternative to CNN, even though they’re all technically and very broadly activities that I could use to inform myself.
In that same way I don’t consider the multitude of ways I could use my free will necessarily alternatives to each other even though they technically are. It kinda sucks but going that broad feels to me like it breaks the concept of alternative and makes it kind of meaningless.
The solution is inexpensive drugs for addicts, minimum standard of living, programs for getting off drugs. But there’s an incentive to make drugs expensive and people desperate, and to punish people for their “failures” rather than forgiving and helping.
It is cheaper to avoid the situation by structuring society in a way that people aren’t willing to steal copper for quick money.
LLM is a powerful tool but it still doesn’t have the context that a person would have. A million tokens is a drop in the bucket compared to the overall context that the person guiding the LLM needs to keep it on track and being productive.
If you’re not a good engineer and you don’t have the domain knowledge, your token costs will be very high for whatever gets shipped, because you won’t be able to provide the context necessary to prompt machine efficiently.
Claude will still very often hallucinate bugs, explanations, domain requirements, that have no basis in reality. It will offer fixes and improvements that are pretty standard but not optimal. This is correctable if you catch it, but you need to review every line of code and comment, because in addition to being obviously wrong, it is often very subtle in the wrongness. For every bit of “slop” there is almost microslop, the places where it just kind of confidently guesses… and doesn’t tell you… but sometimes is correct anyway.
The “problem” is there’s less low hanging fruit. You have to know a lot to add value beyond being a middleman gating the slop. You have to really pay attention to the details to find some of the errors that it’s making.
I remember when there was a kid who kept installing this and the Chex doom on the school pcs in 7th grade. GTA was pretty controversial as a game even though it is incredibly tame by today’s standards. I’m pretty sure they never caught him.
20 juniors become some % of 20 seniors. and some % of that principals. Even if it lives up to the claims you’re still destroying the pipeline for creating experienced people. It is incredibly short sighted.
The thing I really love about magic is that so much of it boils down to “I practiced for years and developed a seemingly superhuman ability to manipulate this object”.
I really relate to this because despite being at least ostensibly “gifted” my entire academic career, almost all of my professional success has been because I have been willing to climb steep learning curves at the expense of hours of my life and extreme frustration.
In short, I can relate because I too practice a type of “up close” magic which few people can even appreciate.
“Do they make money? I don’t know but I know they’re magnificent!”