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shmatt

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shmatt
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Except a sudden dilution usually tanks the stock by the exact % its diluting

So GME dilutes by 20%, stock price immediately goes down by 20%. its not some infinite money hack
shmatt
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
The lenders get their money back via management fees. Pretty much only the consumers and the employees get screwed over
shmatt
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Home owns are owned by people, not the home itself. If someone fails to pay a loan, their own credit score will be impacted

For these PE loans, its the new company that takes on the debt, not the buyer. Essentially any broke person can "afford" any trillion dollar company this way
shmatt
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
eBay is dying, new competitors are being created constantly, and the big ones like Poshmark are getting more North American buyers and sellers. eBay has barely grown since their post covid slump

Maybe eBay survives as an international site but even at that point, with $20B in debt this will just follow the regular PE playbook of shutting down after many layoffs and pivots

The entire concept of, "I have $1,000 in the bank, im going to buy a $10,000 company, but the debt will be on the companies name, not mine" needs to pass. Can you imagine if the mortgage was owned by our home, not ourselves. And we could stop paying it without any personal consequences

If you want to buy a $50B company, you should pay $50B (loans are fine, but not putting the new company in debt)
shmatt
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Sam, Dario, and Sundar have the opportunity to create one of the funniest on call rotations in history
shmatt
·3 bulan yang lalu·discuss
You had interviews scheduled longer than 45 minutes?
shmatt
·3 bulan yang lalu·discuss
if you've ever been through a Meta loop (and their method is to cast an extremely wide net, so chances are you have), you've seen how inefficient their loop can be for long term success

6-7 38* minute interviews, while the interviewee is trying to squeeze in showcasing their skills and experience, the interviewer is obsessed with figuring out a rigid set of pre-determined "signals"

Once these candidates actually start work, their success in the team is a complete coinflip

* 38 minutes = 45 minute scheduled - 2 minute intro - 5 minute saved for candidate questions at the end
shmatt
·8 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Labubus peaking and falling doesnt really say much about scarcity and trends. Labubu is made by a public company, who's stock skyrocketed, and essentially decided to go all in and mass produce to meet the popularity

thats one option. But other companies sometimes choose to keep the scarcity and secrecy for years, even decades, and if they play their cards right it keeps working

Labubus fall is more about its makers decision to increase sales numbers instead of keeping them flat and generating more and more and more hype

Hermes can sell a $15,000 Birkin to everyone, im sure they can figure out the supply chain aspects if they really wanted to. and within a month everyone that wanted one would have one and sales would drop. Hermes will have a spike in sales, followed by a drop

Instead they force you to play years long games with their sales staff to get an opportunity to spend $15,000. And decades later people still opt in to spending thousands of dollars on plates and scarves hoping one day they will be offered one

This is just as true about a $40 Supreme, or Aime Leon Dore T-shirt, than it is for a $15,000 handbag. If you keep the scarcity going just right, it lasts much longer
shmatt
·8 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Also made in Japan
shmatt
·9 bulan yang lalu·discuss
This actually works well the other way around.

When sales are still growing YoY (like the post covid market), but prices are up 30% or 40%, you understand your customer is still willing to pay the higher price

Its similar to a McDonalds or Starbucks situation where you just keep increasing prices dramatically until you get a first quarter of lower than expected sales, then you start adapting downwards

Most corporations still haven't hit that limit, see streaming companies increasing prices every few months, they still haven't hit the point where profits decrease YoY. When they do the streaming prices start decreasing
shmatt
·9 bulan yang lalu·discuss
a company with 800 million weekly active users, and only losing $10B-$15B before implementing ads - which IMO is coming fast and soon to the LLM world - i would never calculate a 90% chance their shares end up at $0 before an exit option

This is the easiest money and best relationship JPM could imagine
shmatt
·9 bulan yang lalu·discuss
This is literally the reason behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Debt keeps your cap table untouched, its very tempting at certain stages
shmatt
·3 tahun yang lalu·discuss
Every consumer facing tech company with a paid product (physical or digital) I've worked at had Android as <10% of conversions. This includes just retail browsing from their phone shopping. Android users make no one money

Unless they're trying to join iOS group messages I guess
shmatt
·3 tahun yang lalu·discuss
You think Facebook would let a large percentage of users use a 3rd party app that blocks all advertisements, tracking, and other monetization? Look at how Meta treated the whole Apple tracking ordeal

If a lone dev would have made an app like Apollo for FB, they would be under 10,000 pages of litigation the next day

People don't use the FB app because its great. They would love a non-tracking version of the same service. It's just not allowed
shmatt
·3 tahun yang lalu·discuss
I swear, the current protests have shined a very odd light on the average commenting Redditor, they want

* The website to be free

* The API to be cheap

* The ability to use a 3rd party app that does not track, advertise, or monetize you in any way

* VCs to continue to pour hundreds of millions of dollars to run the site and never ask for an ROI

Good luck kids
shmatt
·3 tahun yang lalu·discuss
To me Reddit is FB groups with voting. So does that make Usenet similar to FB groups?