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tuatoru

4,337 karmajoined 6 tahun yang lalu
This is the Century of Consequences. You can check out, but you can't leave.

comments

tuatoru
·3 hari yang lalu·discuss
On doctors, I read a substack by a doctor who stopped using an AI notetaker after trying it for a year. They weren't his notes, and there was too much extraneous detail.

Can't find it with a quick search, but the point of the essay was that making the notes by hand reinforced the essentials of each case in the doctor's mind, so they were there for the next appointment two weeks later.
tuatoru
·14 hari yang lalu·discuss
[flagged]
tuatoru
·15 hari yang lalu·discuss
Baron von Masoch was European.
tuatoru
·15 hari yang lalu·discuss
Yes. Many industries are zero-sum-ish in nature,have winner-take-all dynamics or reputational costs for cheaping out. Financial trading. Big law. Military. National Security. Big insurance. Management consulting. Advertising.

For others even a small edge can be important. Pharma and Biochem research. Research in general. Any industry where there are major reputational risks.

It may not make sense to use the most expensive model to replace your payroll clerk, but there are plenty of use cases for the best available.
tuatoru
·15 hari yang lalu·discuss
Europe has Mistral.

You and readers may be interested in Europe 2031

1. https://europe2031.ai/
tuatoru
·15 hari yang lalu·discuss
Cheaper until you factor in security and liability, which are going to get increasingly salient over time.
tuatoru
·15 hari yang lalu·discuss
Deepseek's price looks unsustainable. Ant have said their operating margin is 70%. A leaner company could maybe raise that to 90%.

Most of the cost of supplying inference compute is depreciation of the GPUs. Maybe Deepseek is anticipating a 50 year life for theirs.
tuatoru
·19 hari yang lalu·discuss
Far canal, why is this news?
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
"Comeback" or "quip" for a low-latency sub-Haiku model.
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
Industrial market economies.

The demands of work have eaten childhood (in zero-sum education races) family life, neighborhoods and social life (people moving all the time for a better job), spiritual life (exhaustion).

Market liberalism has pushed more and more debt (e.g. student loans), risk (debts for other things like housing), and uncertainty (random layoffs, zero hours contracts, gig economy) onto individuals and households.

Edit: Japan, China, Korea, and Thailand are speed-running the process. Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and India are not far behind - all states of India except Bihar already have sub-replacement fertility for instance.
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
Fear the time when lobbyists realise they can use AI to draft new laws...
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
Good question.

With a lot of old people, healthcare costs go way up. In practice that means taxes go way up.

(Maybe smart AI can magically cure a lot of degenerative diseases like dementia and atherosclerosis and COPD and osteoarthritis and cancer and diabetes and kidney failure. Let us hope.)

The infrastructure we have (roads, bridges, water supplies, power lines, etc.) need maintenance. With a falling population, a greater percentage of the population needs to be dedicated to these tasks, so career choices get restricted.

(Maybe robotics can help here. Let us hope.)

With a falling population demand for any given product is falling on average.

When the population is growing, there is an implicit cushion for investment. 2% growth means that the population (TAM) doubles in 36 years, making investment less risky. With falling population, new investment is taking market share from existing vendors: competition is zero-sum at best, mostly negative sum.

Every investment is more risky so the rate of interest on loans goes way up.

With falling GDP, wages are stagnant or falling. At present young people take on debt to buy houses and things, partly in the expectation that their wages will rise so the debt gets easier to pay off over time. Falling wages make debt repayment harder, not easier, so people will not take out loans. so sales will be lower, leading to a downward spiral.
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
Difficulty accessing birth control is greatly overstated by UN and other development agencies.

In surveys by far the dominant reasons for not using it are "my husband does not want me to" or "my family does not want me to". Those are included in "unable to access".
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
Traditionally, female years of education, child mortality, and GDP per capita (in order of importance) explain 85% of fertility, and the residual is not biased in either direction.

source: Lant Pritchett, long-time development economist.

Edit: I don't think anyone outside the Taliban seriously wants to reverse the trends in any of those 3 factors.
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
requires
tuatoru
·bulan lalu·discuss
A dead node. I don't think I've turned it on in six months. Hmmm...
tuatoru
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
No. The French Revolution was a revolution of lawyers, writers, and administrators, the elite who were shut out of the very highest positions. And it was unstable. The great majority of people were just cannon fodder for Napoleon.
tuatoru
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
This is true surprisingly often.
tuatoru
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Nurse Ratched was not a sufficient argument for ceasing to protect the mentally ill from themselves, it turns out.
tuatoru
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
It also fails to point out the temporal fallacy, that energy that is available only at certain times, and not reliably so, is a substitute for energy that can be reliably and safely stored for decades and used when needed, not when generated.