As much as I am completely against this in spirit, all that is needed is restricted access to frontier models and then it just a question of how do you want to see my papers sir?
Exactly. Atlas right now cost about $150,000 in manufacturing cost.
The upkeep cost is going to be astronomical for a very long time.
The human body gets beat up doing physical work but can self heal. The robot can not.
Accidents happen all the time doing work and the robot is not going to be as accurate as a human.
I would assume there are zero robot mechanics in the town I live.
I think we will just look back at this time as the good ol days during the peak of the bubble when buying a humanoid robot seemed like something on the horizon.
I imagine 5 years from now it will feel much further away than it does right now.
I think the main aspect is that a human can be held responsible. A human can be fired.
Then we are pretending agents have agency when that is also what the human has.
It seems like the meaning of economy of scale should almost flip to mean the economy of very small, highly specialized companies.
It seems hard to see that the person in charge of cybersecurity is going to also be in charge of marketing.
I think there is also this aspect that if you told me in high school I was someday going to be a project manager, I would have thought you were insane. You mean like Oppenheimer? No one is ever going to put me in charge of the Manhattan Project.
I think you can also see the vague outlines that someone is going to have to be in charge of token cost.
The same way you can't just open a bank account anonymously.
It seems inevitable to me that this is going to end up with a KYC/AML style digital online ID.
Without that you are not using Claude 10. It would not be shocking at all at some level of capability that running open source models anonymously is made a crime.
To pretend there is not huge issues with a laissez faire attitude as these models progress I think is intellectually dishonest and performative.
This bizarre social media meme that AI just performative when Opus 4.8 is just unbelievably good. As if it is so difficult to believe that a more capable model than Opus 4.8 might actually be dangerous and not just entirely a marketing stunt like a person waving to cars in a chicken outfit.
I think it is really this strange form of socialization that people have internalized an anonymous audience they are always performing to themselves. What is going to be the most popular and upvoted thing the anonymous audience agrees with is what I am going to think.
Why would anyone disagree and get downvoted by the anonymous audience like this post?
You can argue it has never been easier to break through in music.
You can also argue that it has never been more difficult.
I think what all this ultimately does is make it harder for the person who would have been doing the activity regardless.
There are a few on the margins that would not have had opportunity but now do. Most of those though are just noise generators making life more difficult for the person who would have been there either way.
The main error of the AI bubble is expressed in the The Jetsons cartoon from the early 60s.
In the future, everyone obviously would be running nuclear powered cars. It was just an engineering problem to be solved. Ford made the Ford Nucleon prototype in 1958.
The nuclear optimism completely blinded people to the ridiculous idea of an individual handling nuclear material for personal use.
The AI bubble error is this idea that everyone is going to have "AGI" in their pocket. It is just a completely absurd idea that is not going to happen.
Fable was interesting from what I tried but nothing close to AGI yet here we are. The models don't get smarter and LESS restricted from here.
To me, right away it seemed that the "Mythos moment" was extraordinarily bearish for the assumptions the AI bubble is built on.
China is going to have the exact same problem, it is just lagged by x months.
If you think there is ever going to be an open source Deepseek "AGI" model I just don't think that is thinking things through.
It is the main error of the AI bubble. At some level of intelligence, the dual use nature of a model is too dangerous for a purely hands off approach.
It is like thinking at the advent of the automobile that you will be able to drive your car at any speed, without a license , any place you want.
It is inevitable and the huge sums of money being burned to build these future highly regulated public utilities probably aren't going to be happy with the returns they get from funding a highly regulated public utility.
To me, it is obvious that what we are going to have is KYC/AML style compliance from US banking.
We already have the rails for automated customer identification from US banking.
I think there is a larger "AGI" category error with all this too that is akin to the old futurist idea of driving nuclear powered cars in the "future". The Ford Nucleon.
Nuclear power comes to us in a mix of electricity from the utility company but is far too dangerous for an individual to posses nuclear material for personal nuclear reactors.
An electric car does run on nuclear energy in some sense but not the way the Ford Nucleon was envisioned.
The error of the AI bubble is that we are pricing these companies with SaaS multiples when they are eventually going to be public utilities. There is really no other way to handle the dual use nature of anything close to "AGI".
Stop embarrassing yourself.