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xadhominemx

2,073 karmajoined 15 tahun yang lalu

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xadhominemx
·9 hari yang lalu·discuss
I am a science and astronomy fan, but I am sorry, in this case progress is more important. If we regret our decision, the LEOs will fall out of the sky by themselves in a few years and it will be ok.
xadhominemx
·bulan lalu·discuss
This comment may have been true 6-9 months ago, but not today
xadhominemx
·bulan lalu·discuss
To me it is crazy that you are being downvoted. My experience in academia was that an incredible amount of time was devoted to data cleansing analysis, coding, etc., which were completely non-core to the actual underlying academic pursuit.
xadhominemx
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Orders of magnitude less compute for pre- and post-training than the the frontier labs.
xadhominemx
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Intel made bad engineering decisions. There was not under-investment in fabs or R&D.
xadhominemx
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
This model is going to start miles behind the frontier and the gap will only grow.
xadhominemx
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
That is not even close to correct.
xadhominemx
·2 bulan yang lalu·discuss
It's very easy to find out when the new fabs come online. Try asking Claude or ChatGPT.
xadhominemx
·4 bulan yang lalu·discuss
I spend much less than that at a chain theater in Manhattan.
xadhominemx
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
AI slop article
xadhominemx
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Yes of course. Looking at the share prices of their suppliers— ASML, Lam Research, Applied Materials, etc.
xadhominemx
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Yes of course their messaging to customers and the investment community is that they will be rational and measured in their investments. In reality, they are adding capacity as quickly as possible as margins are too high. However, capacity addition leading edge semiconductor manufacturing has a multi-year lead time.
xadhominemx
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Everyone is completely sold out and adding capacity as quickly as possible.
xadhominemx
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
CXMT sells the vast majority of their bits at the prevailing market rate, just like everyone else. They are adding capacity as quickly as they can, with a 5-10 year planning horizon, just like everyone else. It’s really not that deep!
xadhominemx
·5 bulan yang lalu·discuss
No one sold their capacity to OpenAI. The vast majority of DRAM is transacted in what is essentially a quarterly auction.
xadhominemx
·6 bulan yang lalu·discuss
Nonsense. Do you think these landlords intentionally overpaid for the properties? They are sophisticated entities who like to pay at or below fair value.
xadhominemx
·7 bulan yang lalu·discuss
That 1/3rd is almost all small time flippers who renovate properties before resale.
xadhominemx
·7 bulan yang lalu·discuss
You are wrong. Memory production is being expanded in 2026 and will expand further in 2027 and 2028 as the memory suppliers catch up on fab shell capacity.
xadhominemx
·7 bulan yang lalu·discuss
AI consumes about 30% of DRAM wafers. PE owns about .5% of single family homes.
xadhominemx
·7 bulan yang lalu·discuss
China has promised to wage war and forcibly subjugate Taiwan, a democratic ally and critical trade partner. If China backed off Taiwan for a few decades, I think the US would drop export controls.