One of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchanges Just Added 100,000 Users in a Single Day(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
One of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchanges Just Added 100,000 Users in a Single Day
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/bitcoin-exchange-added-100-000-users-in-a-day-as-price-exploded
82 comments
I'd rather endure the FOMO when I don't understand its value than lose money when I had my doubts. Feels like it'll be the former for a while...
So are they truly 100,000 distinct users or just 20 users creating 5,000 accounts each to create a money laundering machine?
I want to make some money buying bitcoin it just keeps going up! Which is the best exchange I should use? Is Coinbase best?
High fees, I would search around if you're buying large amounts.
I've personally used Coinbase and find it an excellent platform. Great interface, app works well and they enforce 2FA. I'm by no means an "enthusiast" but took a similar attitude to yours a few months ago, grabbed $400 or so of BTC (and some LTC and ETH, the other two currencies on offer by Coinbase) and I'm at around $2,000 in gains now, so can't complain.
I like Coinbase for my personal account, but I've been waiting a month now for them to approve my company account. I don't think they're equipped to handle such an influx of users
Two tips:
1. Don't keep your BTC in any exchange account for very long, and check the popular forums for people complaining about transactions being held up before transferring BTC into your account. Lots of people got screwed by MtGox, and it can happen on any exchange.
2. Don't spend any money other than money you would be willing to give away for free (totally discretionary money). The bottom has fallen out of markets before, and BTC is not immune. BTC has a lot of similarities to tulips, houses, Beanie Babies, and .com stocks in the late 90's.
1. Don't keep your BTC in any exchange account for very long, and check the popular forums for people complaining about transactions being held up before transferring BTC into your account. Lots of people got screwed by MtGox, and it can happen on any exchange.
2. Don't spend any money other than money you would be willing to give away for free (totally discretionary money). The bottom has fallen out of markets before, and BTC is not immune. BTC has a lot of similarities to tulips, houses, Beanie Babies, and .com stocks in the late 90's.
Hmm, I have a problem with comparing BTC to tulips, houses, or beanie babies, because there never was a powerful and active market for exchanging beanie babies for real world product (i.e. functioning as currency) as we have seen for BTC and buying drugs or software. I also don't like the comparison to .com stocks because those are already an instrument (stocks), which represent company values, and the collapse of an industry doesn't necessarily reflect upon the likelihood of an entirely new investment instrument collapsing.
I would think maybe a comparison to other forms of currency would be a better metaphor - i.e. gold or something. Inherently value-less (gold is pretty and historically been used for currency, that's about it - it's not traded as a commodity for its usefulness as a raw good like Oil or whatever) but still valued.
I would think maybe a comparison to other forms of currency would be a better metaphor - i.e. gold or something. Inherently value-less (gold is pretty and historically been used for currency, that's about it - it's not traded as a commodity for its usefulness as a raw good like Oil or whatever) but still valued.
I didn't say they were identical, but there are some important similarities:
To tulips and beanie babies: There were direct substitutes (other flowers and other stuffed animals) in terms of the actual utility, but tulip prices shot up in 1637- even investors bought tulip contracts not because they needed them, but because they were speculating on the value. Eventually demand leveled out, and the prices stopped going up. When the prices stopped going up, the speculators got out, and prices went down fast. The premium status of being the preferred flower or the preferred toy didn't help any more. How could this be like BTC? There are cryptocurrencies that are direct substitutes like LTC, but BTC is preferred and has a lot of investors purely for speculation. Once demand levels off (it must, there are a max of 7 billion people that can buy it), the speculators will get out, and prices will come down. Why hasn't it happened yet? BTC is artificially scarce due to block difficulty increases and fixed BTC being added for each block. The limited supply is maintaining price support for now, but like I said, once demand levels off, the fixed supply won't be as big of a price driver.
Similar to houses and .com stocks: Houses have real utility (you can use it for shelter). Stocks have real utility (you own a piece of a profit making entity). BTC has some real utility (you can transfer wealth outside of the regulation of governments and banks). However, these bubbles happened because instead of trading on a firm foundation value, people started expecting profits. The castle in the sky theory does work, but only if enough people believe in it. Once confidence faltered (either that people would continue to buy houses or that .com stocks would continue to print money), the castles in the sky fell, and prices fell back to their firm foundation value (a house in Las Vegas that I looked at went from $400k down to $100k- basically the price of raw materials and cheap labor). BTC's price right now is WAY over it's firm foundation utility of being a wealth transfer vehicle. It does have some value, but if enough people decide that a couple other cryptocoins can do the job with less risk than BTC, then prices for BTC will go down to it's intrinsic value- mostly related to the price of energy. It's hard to tell where this will settle, because ASICs are getting more efficient, and the block difficulty changes. But I guarantee you it will be way under $6k.
So these things aren't exactly the same, but there are lots of similarities with previous bubbles in the past. I'm not saying to stay away from BTC, but you had better be willing to lose your investment. There are a lot of people in the market that are only looking for a quick buck, and if they get out before you do then you are going to lose most of your investment. If you aren't desperate to make money off your investment, you will be happy with closing a position early instead of riding the crash into the ground. Closing early makes you the person with the quick buck and makes someone else the fool that lost their shirt.
To tulips and beanie babies: There were direct substitutes (other flowers and other stuffed animals) in terms of the actual utility, but tulip prices shot up in 1637- even investors bought tulip contracts not because they needed them, but because they were speculating on the value. Eventually demand leveled out, and the prices stopped going up. When the prices stopped going up, the speculators got out, and prices went down fast. The premium status of being the preferred flower or the preferred toy didn't help any more. How could this be like BTC? There are cryptocurrencies that are direct substitutes like LTC, but BTC is preferred and has a lot of investors purely for speculation. Once demand levels off (it must, there are a max of 7 billion people that can buy it), the speculators will get out, and prices will come down. Why hasn't it happened yet? BTC is artificially scarce due to block difficulty increases and fixed BTC being added for each block. The limited supply is maintaining price support for now, but like I said, once demand levels off, the fixed supply won't be as big of a price driver.
Similar to houses and .com stocks: Houses have real utility (you can use it for shelter). Stocks have real utility (you own a piece of a profit making entity). BTC has some real utility (you can transfer wealth outside of the regulation of governments and banks). However, these bubbles happened because instead of trading on a firm foundation value, people started expecting profits. The castle in the sky theory does work, but only if enough people believe in it. Once confidence faltered (either that people would continue to buy houses or that .com stocks would continue to print money), the castles in the sky fell, and prices fell back to their firm foundation value (a house in Las Vegas that I looked at went from $400k down to $100k- basically the price of raw materials and cheap labor). BTC's price right now is WAY over it's firm foundation utility of being a wealth transfer vehicle. It does have some value, but if enough people decide that a couple other cryptocoins can do the job with less risk than BTC, then prices for BTC will go down to it's intrinsic value- mostly related to the price of energy. It's hard to tell where this will settle, because ASICs are getting more efficient, and the block difficulty changes. But I guarantee you it will be way under $6k.
So these things aren't exactly the same, but there are lots of similarities with previous bubbles in the past. I'm not saying to stay away from BTC, but you had better be willing to lose your investment. There are a lot of people in the market that are only looking for a quick buck, and if they get out before you do then you are going to lose most of your investment. If you aren't desperate to make money off your investment, you will be happy with closing a position early instead of riding the crash into the ground. Closing early makes you the person with the quick buck and makes someone else the fool that lost their shirt.
Gemini is good, but please remember that the value could always go down sharply. It is not usually best to buy at the peak of the chart.
(opinion, not financial advice)
Ask the guy shining shoes outside J.P. Morgan.
He always knows where a market is heading.
Gemini is better IMO, but I can't use Coinbase in my state, so I suppose I may be biased.
I'd be curious to know at this point what amount of bitcoin transactions are actually retail focused. There was a big push a couple years back by users wanting to make actual purchases with bitcoin and helping to build the infrastructure around that. Does this retail side of bitcoin still exist, or is everyone just mining and selling -> buying and holding?
As far as I know, most Bitcoin transactions take ~10mins to get confirmed, so I'm not sure the current infrastructure would work for retail.
Admittedly I don't know what would need to be changed to speed up transaction confirmations to the point where you could use it in retail situations.
Admittedly I don't know what would need to be changed to speed up transaction confirmations to the point where you could use it in retail situations.
10-minutes isn't that big of a deal. ACH transactions used to take 3 days for example.
The real big deal is that currently, BTC transaction fees are like $5+ right now. So its cheaper to use Paypal than to use BTC at the current prices.
The real big deal is that currently, BTC transaction fees are like $5+ right now. So its cheaper to use Paypal than to use BTC at the current prices.
When I say retail I mean things like buying steam games or buying web hosting, not actual brick and morter store purchases.
You can buy games on Steam with Bitcoin.
https://www.theverge.com/2016/4/28/11525482/bitcoin-steam-va...
https://www.theverge.com/2016/4/28/11525482/bitcoin-steam-va...
Casinos & arcades sort of solve this problem. You walk & buy tokens, then use these tokens to spend, which can then be cashed back out when you're done. Also credit card transactions can be reversed up to months later, so in the grand scheme of things 10 minutes is not so bad, if big retail outlets wanted to make it work they could.
Except the majority of customers don't want to pre-purchase gift cards to shop at a retailer, but instead want to spend as soon as they make the decision to purchase.
Likewise, the frequency of chargebacks is so low it doesn't justify waiting up to 10 minutes to buy something for every purchase.
Likewise, the frequency of chargebacks is so low it doesn't justify waiting up to 10 minutes to buy something for every purchase.
If both the shopper & retail store are using the same BTC exchange, or exchanges that trust each other, the exchange can just move the coins internally, which is instant. Retail outlets could also share information about scammers & create a blacklist of who not to trust, and then just accept the small amount of risk. Like you said, credit cards also have this problem but the frequency of chargebacks is low enough that retail stores do not require you to wait months before leaving the store with your goods. Even accepting cash entails the possibility of fraud. But these are good points you've made. I don't think demand is high enough that we'll see BTC go mainstream for retail, but if demand were to be high enough there are ways to make it work without waiting 10 minutes, but these would rely on exchanges & mutually trusted 3rd party agencies, which you could argue defeats the purpose of using BTC in the first place since its not decentralized but you'd still get the benefits of there being a fixed amount of BTC. People could also budget their monthly spending & transfer it ahead of time into an exchange. People already do this with checking/savings accounts, keeping some funds in checking for when they want to shop.
I read your entire paragraph and this just seems like a hammer looking for a nail. Credit cards automatically handle all of this (blacklisting, risk and fraud management, trustful 3rd party, etc.) so why would anyone want to use BTC for payments unless it's for things that CC companies won't touch (drugs, pirated software, etc.)?
> why would anyone want to use BTC for payments
You're right, that's why I said it probably won't happen, but if demand were high enough it could be made to work. One scenario that would increase demand would be inflation of the US dollar. Look at what happened in Zimbabwe. I'm not saying that's likely to happen, just playing devil's advocate.
You're right, that's why I said it probably won't happen, but if demand were high enough it could be made to work. One scenario that would increase demand would be inflation of the US dollar. Look at what happened in Zimbabwe. I'm not saying that's likely to happen, just playing devil's advocate.
Why would I want to make actual purchases when it's rallying like this? You'd almost always be better off holding instead...
That's the problem.
If no one is actually using the coin for practical purposes, you've created a glorified Ponzi scheme. The minute that "better off holding" is no longer the most common opinion, the price of BTC will drop.
I dunno how long that will take: it took years for Enron to drop to zero for example. But I do not place much trust in the whims of stranger's opinions.
If no one is actually using the coin for practical purposes, you've created a glorified Ponzi scheme. The minute that "better off holding" is no longer the most common opinion, the price of BTC will drop.
I dunno how long that will take: it took years for Enron to drop to zero for example. But I do not place much trust in the whims of stranger's opinions.
So everyone is holding and buying it, and no one is making anything useful with it. Sounds like a great allocation of capital! /s
I am all for bitcoin but you think about it as it is right now. People turn their cash into ether then extract more cash then they put in later only because a bunch of other people are doing it too. This has to pop and when it does i buying a shit ton of it for the next rally.
--edit extra should have been extract.
--edit extra should have been extract.
The largest Bitcoin payment processor for retail is Bitpay, I've used them on a few websites. They enable shops to accept Bitcoin with a locked in exchange rate, shielding them from the volatility and the need to even hold and manage cryptocurrency. They charge a 1% settlement fee, which I believe is competitive compared to traditional payment processors.
Hard to say what proportion of transactions are retail driven, but Bitpay did write about their progress towards a $1B annual payment volume milestone recently[1] which is a drop in the ocean compared to the multi-billion dollar daily trade volumes on exchanges.
[1] https://blog.bitpay.com/bitpay-growth-2017/
Hard to say what proportion of transactions are retail driven, but Bitpay did write about their progress towards a $1B annual payment volume milestone recently[1] which is a drop in the ocean compared to the multi-billion dollar daily trade volumes on exchanges.
[1] https://blog.bitpay.com/bitpay-growth-2017/
As someone not invested in any of this at all, its fascinating to watch as people jump in completely oblivious to risk involved.
I've listened to friends and family discuss investing "only $100" or "only $1000" for fractional amounts of bitcoin with the idea that they're sure fire bets for making money.
I feel a bit like a rube sitting it out on the sidelines (and they're chastising me for not acting) as the price keeps going up-and-up and for most of them, these small investments (some quite large) have paid off for them.
When does this bubble burst? And, what is it going to look like? 100k people in a single day is crazy to me as a layperson, but if this was to be compared to a stock run (disregarding dilution) what type of alarm bells should be ringing for those with the most to lose? Or, are we past that point now?
I've listened to friends and family discuss investing "only $100" or "only $1000" for fractional amounts of bitcoin with the idea that they're sure fire bets for making money.
I feel a bit like a rube sitting it out on the sidelines (and they're chastising me for not acting) as the price keeps going up-and-up and for most of them, these small investments (some quite large) have paid off for them.
When does this bubble burst? And, what is it going to look like? 100k people in a single day is crazy to me as a layperson, but if this was to be compared to a stock run (disregarding dilution) what type of alarm bells should be ringing for those with the most to lose? Or, are we past that point now?
The grossly oversimplified answer... as long as a not-insignificant amount of people keep believing in its value as we approach the 21 million cap - it will continue to rise quite significantly. Simple supply and demand.
It could have literally zero utility whatsoever - as long as people keep buying the hype that this will one day be a massive store of value - it will be a massive store of value.
The better answer ...no one knows anything. 100% unadulterated speculation.
It could have literally zero utility whatsoever - as long as people keep buying the hype that this will one day be a massive store of value - it will be a massive store of value.
The better answer ...no one knows anything. 100% unadulterated speculation.
I think the alarm bells were in the alts, not Bitcoin itself. The crypto community used to use alts as a way of testing out new transaction processing concepts (Proof of Stake, new mining algorithms to stop ASIC abuse, etc). Now, we seem to be testing out these new techniques on Bitcoin itself through the various forks that have occurred in recent months.
> "only $100" or "only $1000
If they're truly using the word "only" when they describe it I do not think you should worry. If they're saying something like "I put in a $100 so this better pay off!" that's a much bigger cause for concern.
If they're truly using the word "only" when they describe it I do not think you should worry. If they're saying something like "I put in a $100 so this better pay off!" that's a much bigger cause for concern.
Its still early days. 100k new users is nothing. Still 99% of the population do not have BTC accounts. Once you get everyone buying then you can say its a bubble, until then there is more room to go up!
My nearly 70 year old mother, technophobe and risk averse to a fault (e.g., had much of her retirement portfolio since'09 out of equities), finally asked me the other day if she should buy some Bitcoin.
Yes, if cryptocurrencies prove to be a real revolution the way the Internet was, there's plenty of upside left. If not, though, I'm not sure there's too many greater fools left if my mother's almost there.
As they say, you know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips...
Yes, if cryptocurrencies prove to be a real revolution the way the Internet was, there's plenty of upside left. If not, though, I'm not sure there's too many greater fools left if my mother's almost there.
As they say, you know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips...
Why are you so sure that it's a bubble?
Not OP but as someone familiar with BTC tech / history I still haven't discovered any real use for it. As in, issues 99% of people in first-world countries have with fiat that it solves, rather than exacerbate (let alone the other massive hassles with using BTC).
It seems to only exist for speculation. Its meteoric rise in the face of all this screams bubble to me. (But.. I've also been saying this for a while.)
It seems to only exist for speculation. Its meteoric rise in the face of all this screams bubble to me. (But.. I've also been saying this for a while.)
For most economic bubbles, one way you can track/detect them via correlated market is signals that diverge.
For example, the housing bubble in 2008 was detected when rental and mortgage prices diverged greatly.
Since the bare-bones value of Bitcoin is tied to the cost of computation power and electricity to mine, you could theoretically track the price of bitcoin vs. the cost of the computational power to mine bitcoin at it's current block difficulty.
For example, the housing bubble in 2008 was detected when rental and mortgage prices diverged greatly.
Since the bare-bones value of Bitcoin is tied to the cost of computation power and electricity to mine, you could theoretically track the price of bitcoin vs. the cost of the computational power to mine bitcoin at it's current block difficulty.
Really? I often buy drugs with BTC. I have friends that use it to buy software.
I guess "but that's illegal!" is a strong argument for those that have a lot of trust in governments. I... don't... so I'm happy to use non-governmental instruments. I still pay my taxes and contribute, I'm not an anarchist, I just like having means to express value that aren't controlled by governments.
I guess "but that's illegal!" is a strong argument for those that have a lot of trust in governments. I... don't... so I'm happy to use non-governmental instruments. I still pay my taxes and contribute, I'm not an anarchist, I just like having means to express value that aren't controlled by governments.
Out of interest, is it dangerous to publicly state that you buy drugs with BTC (with or without personally identifying information attached)?
As in, is it likely that someone would/could be targeted by law enforcement because of that, and could a comment like that be used in court?
As in, is it likely that someone would/could be targeted by law enforcement because of that, and could a comment like that be used in court?
Meh. If they wanted to they could fine me ten bajillion dollars for having a pirated version of Zootopia on my harddrive.
I guess my words could bite me in the ass but I am fairly confident as a non-dealer I'm not exactly a target. Probably on a radar for when the Fed runs out of Big Fish, but for now probably fine.
I guess my words could bite me in the ass but I am fairly confident as a non-dealer I'm not exactly a target. Probably on a radar for when the Fed runs out of Big Fish, but for now probably fine.
Forever is what you need to worry about since you’ve posted this on the internet, not for now.
Who wants to live forever, if love must die?
But given the now rather excessive cost and/or slowness involved in bitcoin transactions these days, it seems inevitable that it’ll be ousted by some other crypto currency in the illegal markets.
Yeah but your a small minority compared to the people using it as a means to speculate and trade. For the vast majority of buyers its pruelly investment into something they will never use beyond trading it back into cash.
Well that vast majority has no idea the wonderful drugs they are missing out on! ;P
>When does this bubble burst? And, what is it going to look like? 100k people in a single day is crazy to me as a layperson, but if this was to be compared to a stock run (disregarding dilution) what type of alarm bells should be ringing for those with the most to lose? Or, are we past that point now?
Well we'd need to figure out what would trigger a sell-off and whether that sell-off could be sustained. I've got no clue what would trigger a sell off but for whether a sell-off could be sustained, I'm not sure, there are lots and lots of true believers at this point. I think there could be a really interesting psychological dissection of investors in BTC and other high volatility assets because there's a sort of annealing of their risk attitude where every dip is a buying opportunity, the risk perception of people like that might be completely different from someone like me with no stake in BTC.
Well we'd need to figure out what would trigger a sell-off and whether that sell-off could be sustained. I've got no clue what would trigger a sell off but for whether a sell-off could be sustained, I'm not sure, there are lots and lots of true believers at this point. I think there could be a really interesting psychological dissection of investors in BTC and other high volatility assets because there's a sort of annealing of their risk attitude where every dip is a buying opportunity, the risk perception of people like that might be completely different from someone like me with no stake in BTC.
I haven't been convinced that this has happened before, so other than "not diversifying is dumb," anybody that says with any authority "you should not be investing a small amount of money in cryptocurrency" has an equally strong argument as someone that says "you should be investing a small amount of money in cryptocurrency."
I say as long as you follow centuries-old investment advice (diversify, always have a backup plan, have enough cash for a crash), there's no reason not to explore a new investment instrument. AKA, "fuck it, why not?"
Depending on how much you make I don't see why not invest "only $1000," as long as your other tested investment instruments are already qualified (emergency savings, 401k/roth/whatever, stocks, bonds, int'l investments).
I say as long as you follow centuries-old investment advice (diversify, always have a backup plan, have enough cash for a crash), there's no reason not to explore a new investment instrument. AKA, "fuck it, why not?"
Depending on how much you make I don't see why not invest "only $1000," as long as your other tested investment instruments are already qualified (emergency savings, 401k/roth/whatever, stocks, bonds, int'l investments).
This is my feeling on it too.
Nobody can predict what is going to happen with BTC or the whole cryptocurrency eco-system in general. There's still potential for the technology to take off and gain widespread adoption, just as there's the potential for all the big players to lose interest and move on to something else.
If you want to 'invest'(I prefer gamble, or play at this point) - go for it. Just like every fad there are groups of people who believe strongly in the idea of the thing, and those who just want to get rich off of the thing.
At this point nobody has definitive answers on the future of BTC.
Public interest / perception is the biggest factor at play here. There can be literally 0 uses for cryptocurrency, but if news outlets are telling a layperson to buy it, they'll buy it. As long as the big players are interested in keeping it afloat, I don't see what would cause it's price to crash down to 0 over night.
Nobody can predict what is going to happen with BTC or the whole cryptocurrency eco-system in general. There's still potential for the technology to take off and gain widespread adoption, just as there's the potential for all the big players to lose interest and move on to something else.
If you want to 'invest'(I prefer gamble, or play at this point) - go for it. Just like every fad there are groups of people who believe strongly in the idea of the thing, and those who just want to get rich off of the thing.
At this point nobody has definitive answers on the future of BTC.
Public interest / perception is the biggest factor at play here. There can be literally 0 uses for cryptocurrency, but if news outlets are telling a layperson to buy it, they'll buy it. As long as the big players are interested in keeping it afloat, I don't see what would cause it's price to crash down to 0 over night.
gambling is gambling. if you want to gamble for fun then by all means enjoy yourself. but don't pretend it is an "investment."
But not all gambling is "gambling": Insurance is gambling, for example. Picking mutual funds and ETFs for your retirement plan is gambling.
"Gambling" has connotations of immoral behaviour, especially in zero-sum or always-lose scenarios like poker and casinos. I don't think it's fair to describe educated and informed investment or buy-ins with words like that. I think "risky venture" is a less loaded, more neutral, term to describe it instead.
As it is, I don't see Bitcoin and other currencies as true investments - just yet - I see the surge in Bitcoin mainly as a "distributed Ponzi-scheme" instead: those who are cashing-out now are those who bought-in early and being paid by the people buying it now - and the people buying it now expect more other people to buy into it later, pushing the price higher while supply and availability dwindle (owing to BTC's 28M cap). However, unlike a Ponzi-scheme, Bitcoin, Ethereum and others do have utility as a means of moving money around independently of existing, often state-controlled, bank networks or remittance services - and eventually Bitcoin will be the tool of choice for that - and when the tens of millions of people wanting to move money around do so is when we will know the real, unhyped, value of Bitcoin - until then, the question is if $7,000 USD/BTC is an obscene over-valuation, or is still comically low - and I don't know which side to believe.
We'll get a better idea when, or if, legacy companies like Western Union and SWIFT get involved - or when real-time BTC transactions cost less than a VISA or Mastercard transaction (say ~3%). Right now a 250 byte transaction will cost 54,240 satoshi ($3.83) and take 30 minutes to get the first confirmation - making it totally unacceptable for retail purchases, for example. Hopefully when the Lightning Network or other solutions get finalized we'll start to see some real traction, but how many bubbles will burst before then?
(Disclaimer: I'm a HODLer of BTC and ETH).
"Gambling" has connotations of immoral behaviour, especially in zero-sum or always-lose scenarios like poker and casinos. I don't think it's fair to describe educated and informed investment or buy-ins with words like that. I think "risky venture" is a less loaded, more neutral, term to describe it instead.
As it is, I don't see Bitcoin and other currencies as true investments - just yet - I see the surge in Bitcoin mainly as a "distributed Ponzi-scheme" instead: those who are cashing-out now are those who bought-in early and being paid by the people buying it now - and the people buying it now expect more other people to buy into it later, pushing the price higher while supply and availability dwindle (owing to BTC's 28M cap). However, unlike a Ponzi-scheme, Bitcoin, Ethereum and others do have utility as a means of moving money around independently of existing, often state-controlled, bank networks or remittance services - and eventually Bitcoin will be the tool of choice for that - and when the tens of millions of people wanting to move money around do so is when we will know the real, unhyped, value of Bitcoin - until then, the question is if $7,000 USD/BTC is an obscene over-valuation, or is still comically low - and I don't know which side to believe.
We'll get a better idea when, or if, legacy companies like Western Union and SWIFT get involved - or when real-time BTC transactions cost less than a VISA or Mastercard transaction (say ~3%). Right now a 250 byte transaction will cost 54,240 satoshi ($3.83) and take 30 minutes to get the first confirmation - making it totally unacceptable for retail purchases, for example. Hopefully when the Lightning Network or other solutions get finalized we'll start to see some real traction, but how many bubbles will burst before then?
(Disclaimer: I'm a HODLer of BTC and ETH).
>"Gambling" has connotations of immoral behaviour, especially in zero-sum or always-lose scenarios like poker and casinos. I don't think it's fair to describe educated and informed investment or buy-ins with words like that. I think "risky venture" is a less loaded, more neutral, term to describe it instead.
This is not a repeat from every bubble ever. This time it's different!
This is not a repeat from every bubble ever. This time it's different!
All GP is saying is that some gambling, such as on casino slot machines has a mathematically defined (and legally regulated) payout of less than 100%. Same for state lotteries.
Bitcoin may well be in a bubble, but it isnt mathematically and legally guaranteed to decrease in value overall as compared to what most people consider traditional forms of "gambling".
Bitcoin may well be in a bubble, but it isnt mathematically and legally guaranteed to decrease in value overall as compared to what most people consider traditional forms of "gambling".
Eh, the SEC warning a couple months ago was to Bitcoin as Alan Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" Dec 1996 warning was to the dot-com bubble. In 1996 the dot-com bubble was just getting started. We've got a while to go before this one goes up in flames.
The sign to watch out for is when you have personal friends investing their life savings in Bitcoin - not $100 here and there, but $100k. And not 100K people in a single day (that's peanuts in the grand scheme of consumer markets...I've run Harry Potter fansites with more users than that, and it wasn't even one of the big ones), but tens of millions.
The sign to watch out for is when you have personal friends investing their life savings in Bitcoin - not $100 here and there, but $100k. And not 100K people in a single day (that's peanuts in the grand scheme of consumer markets...I've run Harry Potter fansites with more users than that, and it wasn't even one of the big ones), but tens of millions.
[deleted]
I’ve got my popcorn out.
I keep encountering more and more everyday people who are investing serious money in Bitcoin. Uber drivers, barbers, baristas.
I keep encountering more and more everyday people who are investing serious money in Bitcoin. Uber drivers, barbers, baristas.
For a minute i read this as "I keep encouraging more and more everyday people.." which made me smile ;)
I'm not into FUD because I like the technology and I have money in it -- but come mid-month you might see some heads turn at the 2x fork. I haven't been following closely to what community tone seems to be, but if there ends up being a sudden correction because of the split, it will be interesting to see what happens. It bodes well for the tech itself, but it might shake a few weak hands pretty good. Especially if they're just getting in now...
writing is on the wall gentlemen.
That's a lot of users. How many of them are distinct human beings? How would that be verified?
Probably a tiny fraction. I'd guess that an algorithm recognized that buying 100 Bitcoin spread across 100k accounts is better than from 1 account.
I've tried opening a business account. I provided all of the required documentation weeks ago (probably more than a month ago). Still not able to trade. I entered a help ticket a week or so ago and just got a response that they are very busy... Still waiting.
My dad just texted me today asking if I owned bitcoin and if he should pick some up. I described it as uninsured highly volatile fine art(can be destroyed/lost) with a huge counter-party risk if he doesn't have the technical ability to store his own coins. Does anyone out there have a better analogy to scare family/friends away from it?
Just keep in mind that if the price skyrockets you'll get to field more phone calls from angry family/friends who missed out because of your advice.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
My sister told me she bought some and that she’ll buy more soon. She also told me that the price will rise and rise. I’m not sure what to say, I’m totally stunned. But I guess that is an interesting signal showing that the pool of people who could potentially buy more and thus drive the price is tremendously big.
Why are you trying to scare them? Just explain to them that it is high risk.
But there is a strong potential future for btc, and in spite of all the fear mongering, BTC has so far come back from every crash. You're not just throwing away money if you spend a couple hundred of your otherwise disposable income on some btc. Buying at any point in the past would have yielded a payoff today.
But there is a strong potential future for btc, and in spite of all the fear mongering, BTC has so far come back from every crash. You're not just throwing away money if you spend a couple hundred of your otherwise disposable income on some btc. Buying at any point in the past would have yielded a payoff today.
Can people elaborate why they are downvoting this? I hold a similar opinion - as long as your other investment instruments are intelligently diversified and filled-out, why not spend a small % on bitcoin? As nnfy has said, any amount in the past would have yielded payoff today.
"But a crash!" is not an argument alone. Every single other investment instrument I'm aware of has had a crash.
"But a crash!" is not an argument alone. Every single other investment instrument I'm aware of has had a crash.
Investing in Bitcoin to diversify is fine. Buying Bitcoin because it's been rising? That's the definition of speculation. Most people are not qualified to be speculators because they are insufficiently critical. It's easy to imagine potential, and difficult to gauge risk. See also "most investors lose money".
When I say "scaring them" I mean "explaining the high risk well". My words were imprecise, but are not at odds with your suggestion, except that I don't explain the potential benefits and strong future. That's for them to find out, I just want to make sure they understand the risks because it doesn't seem well shared at this point.
"I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men,"
- Newton after he lost everything investing in the south sea bubble for a second time, just before it popped.
This has gained mainstream attention and no-one knows what they’re investing in any more, there is no there there to justify the price. Consider the trajectory of chain - a bitcoin startup that has gone from being about bitcoin to about block chains to about distributed ledgers to being about distributed applications (note these last things don’t care what they’re denominated in).
A founder wrote one of the best write ups of this space I’ve seen, and even he is pretty skeptical:
https://blog.chain.com/a-letter-to-jamie-dimon-de89d417cb80
All it needs now is for ordinary people to get nervous and start trying to realise their gains all at once for prices to plummet once again.
- Newton after he lost everything investing in the south sea bubble for a second time, just before it popped.
This has gained mainstream attention and no-one knows what they’re investing in any more, there is no there there to justify the price. Consider the trajectory of chain - a bitcoin startup that has gone from being about bitcoin to about block chains to about distributed ledgers to being about distributed applications (note these last things don’t care what they’re denominated in).
A founder wrote one of the best write ups of this space I’ve seen, and even he is pretty skeptical:
https://blog.chain.com/a-letter-to-jamie-dimon-de89d417cb80
All it needs now is for ordinary people to get nervous and start trying to realise their gains all at once for prices to plummet once again.
Trading volume of bitcoin from last 24h is almost 1.7 billion dollars. I don't remember to see it that high.
Bitcoin just hit 7000 dollars.
Bitcoin just hit 7000 dollars.
One bitcoin transaction already now uses as much energy as your house in a week. I really have trouble seeing how this can scale in the long run?
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbbpm/bitcoin-mi...
Bitcoin - The new coal
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbbpm/bitcoin-mi...
Bitcoin - The new coal
This has been my issue from the start. I generally feel like I've missed a boat I certainly could have gotten on to early enough, But it's so terribly wasteful, I have a hard time supporting the thing at all. Admittedly I don't follow the subject very closely, but I haven't seen this argument mentioned nearly enough.
Coinbase so dominates cryptocurrency accounts in the US they should just have a way to do internal $ payments between accounts without going through any blockchain. Would be much quicker and cheaper.
Yeah, only apply the transaction to the block chain when it leaves their system, e.g. PayPal.
I'm curious and I can't work out how to phrase this as a Google search, so I'm hoping someone smarter than me can answer this:
At the moment we refer to BTC as being worth $xUSD, but without another currency to compare it to, is it worth anything? Or is it just not designed to be used in isolation?
At the moment we refer to BTC as being worth $xUSD, but without another currency to compare it to, is it worth anything? Or is it just not designed to be used in isolation?