Ask HN:Recommended tech stocks(maybe others) that have potential for 10X returns
I am looking for innovative companies that will grow 10x in market cap. Duration is not important. It can be 5 years or 20 years
3 comments
I don't know about 10 years but for 1-year returns. It looks like AMZN is set to test $2400 relatively soon and BlackBerry can test $12-$14 in 4 months. Also AAPL is set to test $250.
MongoDB ($30 to $130 in last 12 months), Elastic, Netflix, Amazon
Pretty much the lower part of NASDAQ. Established companies like Apple is unlikely to hit 10 trillion market cap.
Out of the big ones, only Amazon has huge potential, as they're still mostly limited to developed countries. E-commerce in developing countries is huge, but they make little effort, often have a lot of counterfeit products and such. I can see Amazon coming in and disrupting incumbents.
Chinese companies are in one of the fastest growing markets and they go into it with a good work ethic, and are also highly defensible. They tend to have a strong P/E ratio too, e.g. something like Huawei makes about as much money as Google and has many more products, but is unfortunately not for sale.
What intrigues me about Chinese companies is that they've expanded well into both developing and developed nations. American companies can be flawed in that they have a huge local market to work with but it's culturally homogeneous. And so they have trouble expanding into other countries unless they're willing to learn.
E.g. Uber entered markets that were 80% cash based versus competitors who knew how far they could play dirty. They got a bloody nose in some of the more corrupt countries. Stripe's making effort to expand, but the countries dealing with corruption also have a complex bureaucratic process. I'd also advise to be careful with listed companies that deal with things like finance, as they're going to be tied down by regulation in other countries and often get disrupted by locals who know how the play the game.
Islamic sector looks underdeveloped. Lots of money, lots of people. But don't invest in something you don't understand deeply. A lot of non-Muslim investors overinvest in the halal sector, not realizing that it's not that big a deal. A good example is Muzmatch, where Muslims are looking for a spouse (not a date!). This is something that OKCupid and Tinder can't disrupt.
The Middle East may not have the talent of the West or the work ethic ot the East, but they have a heck lot of money and are eager to invest it into something other than oil. With Careem's acquisition, middle eastern tech ecosystem will probably get a huge boost of both investment and talent in the following years.
Privacy is also a huge trend, especially with the rise of AI. I don't expect it to beat Facebook, but it can certainly grow 10x.
In this "late" era of apps, I'd look at solutions that still haven't expanded globally, or those who did and are riding a growing market. e.g. SE Asia's e-commerce market expected to grow 5x from 2015 to 2020, and e-commerce companies in these countries would start reaping the benefits around 2022.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, just some things to think about, and a lot of this is probably wrong.
Out of the big ones, only Amazon has huge potential, as they're still mostly limited to developed countries. E-commerce in developing countries is huge, but they make little effort, often have a lot of counterfeit products and such. I can see Amazon coming in and disrupting incumbents.
Chinese companies are in one of the fastest growing markets and they go into it with a good work ethic, and are also highly defensible. They tend to have a strong P/E ratio too, e.g. something like Huawei makes about as much money as Google and has many more products, but is unfortunately not for sale.
What intrigues me about Chinese companies is that they've expanded well into both developing and developed nations. American companies can be flawed in that they have a huge local market to work with but it's culturally homogeneous. And so they have trouble expanding into other countries unless they're willing to learn.
E.g. Uber entered markets that were 80% cash based versus competitors who knew how far they could play dirty. They got a bloody nose in some of the more corrupt countries. Stripe's making effort to expand, but the countries dealing with corruption also have a complex bureaucratic process. I'd also advise to be careful with listed companies that deal with things like finance, as they're going to be tied down by regulation in other countries and often get disrupted by locals who know how the play the game.
Islamic sector looks underdeveloped. Lots of money, lots of people. But don't invest in something you don't understand deeply. A lot of non-Muslim investors overinvest in the halal sector, not realizing that it's not that big a deal. A good example is Muzmatch, where Muslims are looking for a spouse (not a date!). This is something that OKCupid and Tinder can't disrupt.
The Middle East may not have the talent of the West or the work ethic ot the East, but they have a heck lot of money and are eager to invest it into something other than oil. With Careem's acquisition, middle eastern tech ecosystem will probably get a huge boost of both investment and talent in the following years.
Privacy is also a huge trend, especially with the rise of AI. I don't expect it to beat Facebook, but it can certainly grow 10x.
In this "late" era of apps, I'd look at solutions that still haven't expanded globally, or those who did and are riding a growing market. e.g. SE Asia's e-commerce market expected to grow 5x from 2015 to 2020, and e-commerce companies in these countries would start reaping the benefits around 2022.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, just some things to think about, and a lot of this is probably wrong.