Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths(theguardian.com)
theguardian.com
Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/worse-than-flu-busting-coronavirus-myths
17 comments
The primary way this virus kills is via critical cases that need about 3-5 weeks of intensive care unit to recover.
That means once any factor in the list of resources making up your limited ICU capacity is exhausted, most people going critical (10-20% of cases) are basically dead.
ICU capacity is a formula limited by various factors:
People (Doctors, Nurses,support staff being awake, healthy, protected), Beds and Room, Consumables and Drugs, etc.
Global capacity of consumables for this situation is under severe crunch. There are not enough masks. There is not enough PPE. We even have some supply issues on IPA by now in several regions due to hyper connected commerce, hoarding, insufficient stockpiles.
Singapore actually put out the math that their stockpile was signidicantly depleted due to taking a gamble by giving every household 4 masks to stop the initial panic.
Again.... health care capacity is the single most constraining factor on this viruses mortality rate. For most people, even a properly worn mask during a normal day will not avert any kind of infection because they are not fully PPEd (I sneeze on you, infection will happen through ocular surface regardless of mask) and because the chance actually getting into a situation the mask is useful is remote compared to a doctor or nurse.
So both at scale and from an individual perspective - not buying and depleting the mask stock and ensuring adequate supply for healthcare is the absolute best way to optimise for survival.
That means once any factor in the list of resources making up your limited ICU capacity is exhausted, most people going critical (10-20% of cases) are basically dead.
ICU capacity is a formula limited by various factors:
People (Doctors, Nurses,support staff being awake, healthy, protected), Beds and Room, Consumables and Drugs, etc.
Global capacity of consumables for this situation is under severe crunch. There are not enough masks. There is not enough PPE. We even have some supply issues on IPA by now in several regions due to hyper connected commerce, hoarding, insufficient stockpiles.
Singapore actually put out the math that their stockpile was signidicantly depleted due to taking a gamble by giving every household 4 masks to stop the initial panic.
Again.... health care capacity is the single most constraining factor on this viruses mortality rate. For most people, even a properly worn mask during a normal day will not avert any kind of infection because they are not fully PPEd (I sneeze on you, infection will happen through ocular surface regardless of mask) and because the chance actually getting into a situation the mask is useful is remote compared to a doctor or nurse.
So both at scale and from an individual perspective - not buying and depleting the mask stock and ensuring adequate supply for healthcare is the absolute best way to optimise for survival.
An expert in the field discusses how to stay safe when a dangerous virus is spreading. [1]
[1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safet...
[1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safet...
This is helpful, thanks for sharing.
It would be better if they communicated that people shouldn't worry about getting or wearing masks because most people don't need them, and they are needed by people who do need them.
Also, it is helpful to keep in mind the distinction between surgical masks and N95 respirators. The latter are effective at preventing transmission if worn properly. They should be saved for use by health care workers and those caring for sick people. Which means shouldn't worry about buying them at the exorbitant prices, and should probably save for (or give away) when needed.
Surgical masks are helpful for sick people to wear. For prevention, they help a little so worth wearing if have them but not worth panic buying them. And keep in mind that hand washing and other things are more effective and important prevention.
Also, it is helpful to keep in mind the distinction between surgical masks and N95 respirators. The latter are effective at preventing transmission if worn properly. They should be saved for use by health care workers and those caring for sick people. Which means shouldn't worry about buying them at the exorbitant prices, and should probably save for (or give away) when needed.
Surgical masks are helpful for sick people to wear. For prevention, they help a little so worth wearing if have them but not worth panic buying them. And keep in mind that hand washing and other things are more effective and important prevention.
one interesting note from the article:
——————————
Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’
Wearing a face mask is not an iron clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can still penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is the main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly five-fold protection versus no barrier. If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re just walking around town and not in close contact with others, wearing a mask is unlikely to make any difference.
——————————
Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’
Wearing a face mask is not an iron clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can still penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is the main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly five-fold protection versus no barrier. If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re just walking around town and not in close contact with others, wearing a mask is unlikely to make any difference.
The droplets will also hit your eyes. Masks work in conjunction with other PPE and primarily by capturing outbound droplets
"Asymmetry. Convex decision. So long as there is no risk of harm from masks & disinfectants, the decision is wise, in spite of the "absence of evidence"." @nntaleb[1]
[1] https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1233374759271923712
[1] https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1233374759271923712
Except that a mask worn by you may be a mask not worn by a sick person, nurse or doctor in a close range situation.
Wearing masks is a zero sum game? What?
[deleted]
I can't even buy a bloody mask in the US at the moment, nowhere available, so effective or not doesn't really matter...
Do you know how to make a mask? Perhaps then those who can make the mask by themself can have a mask even if the store doesn't sell it.
Why do I keep reading the advice that it's important not to touch your face? How is the skin of the hands different from the skin of the face?
The face is where all the mucous membranes are located (tear ducts, nasal passages, etc.). These are weak spots through which pathogens are more likely to successfully infect the body.
It's way thinner and full of holes. It's not so much about the skin on your cheeks, but your mouth, eyes, nose membranes. And even if you just dirty your cheek, the contamination might spread elsewhere with further touching. Think about this: How do you take drugs? Eye dropplets, oral blotters, snorting.
mask != respirator:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/
Everything I have read that says “don’t wear a mask” are predicated on the following arguments:
1. Most people don’t wear it right so it’s not worth it
2. Most people buy the wrong kind of mask
3. Most people won’t charge the mask often enough
4. You have to take the mask off to eat/ eventually anyway so it doesn’t matter.
5. Hospitals need the masks not you
...therefore don’t buy masks.
Ok...
But what if I wear it right, change it often, use the right kind and only wear it in a “high risk” situation, like riding a train or other enclosed space?
Every article that says “don’t buy masks because this expert said so” is basically admitting that they DO work. Ok, maybe not “on average” and maybe it’s not effective at “protecting an entire country”. Sure. But that doesn’t mean it won’t work to protect ME.
So bacially it boils down to no one wanting to recommend masks for the above reasons, and to prevent a run on masks. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t effective if you do it right. Anyway, that’s my two cents on all this mask/no mask malarkey. Would love to be proven wrong.