Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools(thelocal.dk)
thelocal.dk
Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200311/denmark-to-shut-all-schools-and-universities-to-fight-virus
164 comments
Same thing happening in Slovenia on monday.
Also, all public sector employees who do not perform critical functions will be sent home on paid leave, and all private companies are recommended to do the same.
On top of this all public gatherings of more than 100 people is discouraged, and it is alsp encouraged for all bars and nightclubs to keep closed for now. These are expected to be signed into law within the week.
On top of this all public gatherings of more than 100 people is discouraged, and it is alsp encouraged for all bars and nightclubs to keep closed for now. These are expected to be signed into law within the week.
Is there any reasoning/science behind 100 people? Why 100 but not 1000 or 50?
It has been motivated at least in Denmark (limit was 1000, now 100) and Sweden (limit 500) that larger events attract people traveling to it. This traveling and being among large crowds large is what they want to avoid.
While smaller events, say a local low division football team, doesn't normally attract a tone else than locals. The exact number is arbitrary but has to be something, right now 100 in Denmark, 500 in Sweden and will likely change over time.
Yes. The Joe Rogan experience episode with Michael Osterholm talked about this. Basically all of this social distancing is about slowing the spread so as to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not stop it. They can calculate how much you impact the speed of spread if you limit gatherings to 1k, 100, 50, 5, etc. From there it's a somewhat subjective risk assessment of what you want to recommend, bearing in mind that destroying the economy results in deaths from downstream effects.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
Not really. The PM was asked about that and she just said it was a pretty arbitrary number but something they deemed sound for now.
It’s probably not feasible to come up with anything but an arbitrary number. But 100 allows for important meetings and some ceremonies. More than that are usually public events.
The good thing is that probably you can come up with an educated guess, if you put in a formula, based on that we saw until now how the propagation works. The bad thing is that you will come up with a number much smaller than 100 and it will lead to panic
In response to question she also emphasized that all unnecessary activity in society is essentially discouraged.
Are businesses being provided lines of credit or other funding sources to continue paying employees while their income might decline in the short term? Or are they able/expected to pay out of cash reserves or existing business credit lines?
yes, the specifics aren't out yet but a package is being put together right now by the government. We don't know yet how much, but the numbers are in the billions.
The government is aware that this is a dificult situation financially for a lot of companies and are working to resolve it. A lot of it will be through delayed payment of taxes and VAT to keep cashflow.
The government is aware that this is a dificult situation financially for a lot of companies and are working to resolve it. A lot of it will be through delayed payment of taxes and VAT to keep cashflow.
One thing to keep in mind is that interest rates in Denmark is currently negative. That means that the government, and even large credit-worthy corporates, can borrow and actually get paid to do so.
That makes weathering a storm like this relatively easy from an economics standpoint. It's easy to delay revenue and cover fixed costs without incurring any significant financing costs.
That makes weathering a storm like this relatively easy from an economics standpoint. It's easy to delay revenue and cover fixed costs without incurring any significant financing costs.
That seems to be a cheerful economics standpoint that treats accounting as having primacy over physical supply of goods. It is good if they have a neat legal mechanism to stop companies going bankrupt but the economy is going to tank if everyone stays home and does nothing (or less than normal; in some roles that can work from home). Any economy that doesn't report that it is tanking is an economy built of lies and chicanery.
The economy isn't a GDP or stock market index; it is a complicated process for getting people what they want and need based on an estimate of how much we can afford to give them. It can't weather everyone parking up in any meaningful sense no matter what numbers are published in the ledgers.
The economy isn't a GDP or stock market index; it is a complicated process for getting people what they want and need based on an estimate of how much we can afford to give them. It can't weather everyone parking up in any meaningful sense no matter what numbers are published in the ledgers.
I disagree. The interest rate is not entirely divorced from tangible reality. Rather it's the emergent manifestation of the aggregate behavior and preferences of investors, savers, and foreign traders across the entire economy.
A low interest rate is the direct result of indifference to inter-temporal substitution. It indicates that households are willing to shift consumption from the present to the future, that firms can readily defer capital investments, and that foreign producers are willing to cover temporary shortfalls in domestic production because they have high faith in the currency and financial system.
All of those things are physical manifestations of how and why it would be easy for Denmark to weather a temporary supply shock. 3-6 months of reduced economic output can easily be handled by relatively painless deferrals in demand. Danish consumers will shift back vacations, home upgrades and new cars until later in the year. Danish businesses have very well maintained capital equipment, and can stretch maintenance and upgrade cycles. Chinese and Russian exporters have very high faith in the Danish Krona, and will sell goods today for the promise of Danish goods in the distant future.
A low interest rate is the direct result of indifference to inter-temporal substitution. It indicates that households are willing to shift consumption from the present to the future, that firms can readily defer capital investments, and that foreign producers are willing to cover temporary shortfalls in domestic production because they have high faith in the currency and financial system.
All of those things are physical manifestations of how and why it would be easy for Denmark to weather a temporary supply shock. 3-6 months of reduced economic output can easily be handled by relatively painless deferrals in demand. Danish consumers will shift back vacations, home upgrades and new cars until later in the year. Danish businesses have very well maintained capital equipment, and can stretch maintenance and upgrade cycles. Chinese and Russian exporters have very high faith in the Danish Krona, and will sell goods today for the promise of Danish goods in the distant future.
> Rather it's the emergent manifestation of the aggregate behavior and preferences of investors, savers, and foreign traders across the entire economy.
I'm no expert in Danish monetary policies; but I'm 80% confident their interest rates are set by these people:
https://www.nationalbanken.dk/en/marketinfo/official_interes...
It isn't an emergent phenomenon if a 25 person committee declares what the phenomenon will emerge to.
> A low interest rate is the direct result of indifference to inter-temporal substitution.
It is a direct response to government removing anyone who cares about the future from the market by buying them out.
> Chinese and Russian exporters have very high faith in the Danish Krona, and will sell goods today for the promise of Danish goods in the distant future.
I mean sure, but Denmark is maintaining a currency peg. None of this is reassuring free market singalling; this is all the largely the government declaring that the numbers must not look bad.
I'm no expert in Danish monetary policies; but I'm 80% confident their interest rates are set by these people:
https://www.nationalbanken.dk/en/marketinfo/official_interes...
It isn't an emergent phenomenon if a 25 person committee declares what the phenomenon will emerge to.
> A low interest rate is the direct result of indifference to inter-temporal substitution.
It is a direct response to government removing anyone who cares about the future from the market by buying them out.
> Chinese and Russian exporters have very high faith in the Danish Krona, and will sell goods today for the promise of Danish goods in the distant future.
I mean sure, but Denmark is maintaining a currency peg. None of this is reassuring free market singalling; this is all the largely the government declaring that the numbers must not look bad.
Excellent. I have heard from EU colleagues that the ECB is likely to provide whatever is necessary to members to finance this sort of assistance, but haven't seen public confirmation yet.
This seems enormously complicated. How can the government reliably assess lost revenue? What about businesses whose expenditures were always unrealistic and a temporary closure pushed them over the edge, should they be covered too?
Note that I’m not criticizing the solution, just remarking on how hard the problem looks.
Note that I’m not criticizing the solution, just remarking on how hard the problem looks.
This is not overly complex. Insurance companies do similar assessments of lost revenue as part of business claims.
Shouldn't be an issue, insurance companies routinely do this.
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VAT is postponed but only for larger companies.
This will hit smaller companies hard; particular service sector such as hair dressers, restaurants, contractors etc.
This will hit smaller companies hard; particular service sector such as hair dressers, restaurants, contractors etc.
For starters VAT and payroll taxes deadlines will be extended, more measures will come. People who have been forced to cancel major events, will be refunded.
Tax and VAT payments can be deferred
And if goods aren't flowing there really isn't VAT incurred for that time is there?
There are no immediate promises of such measures being made. Edit: Since this is being downvoted could someone provide a source for such immediate promises? I must have missed it.
There are, they just aren't specific yet. The important part is the shut down, then they have time to work on the package
Are grocery shops considered critical?
They are not public sector and thus not directly affected.
Austria has taken similar measures as well.
Poland is closing too from Monday.
Subcontractor for one of Polish mobile carriers here. Around 5pm we got a memo to work remotely starting tomorrow until further notice. Until now the company has been rather reluctant to embrace remote work to the full extent (maximum 1 day per week with quite a complicated procedure to go through to get approved). I've never worked remotely for this company so this is going to be an interesting time.
I wonder if the US will see a similar shutdown in the coming weeks.
Seattle area schools just shut down, and earlier today the governor put restrictions on gatherings of more than 250 people. Seems like it’s moving pretty fast.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/inslee-or...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/inslee-or...
And a New York suburb is being quarantined by the national guard.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/new-rochelle-coronav...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/new-rochelle-coronav...
it won't be mandated by the federal government nation wide but you'll see it (and it's already started in some places) at the county level and maybe state level.
Fulton County, Georgia (Atlanta) shut down all schools after a teacher was diagnosed.
San Francisco is banning all gatherings of more than 1000 people.
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Most big cities in Norway as well have drastic measures now. No gatherings over 100 people, encouraged to work from home etc.
> encouraged to work from home
That doesn’t seem very drastic.
That doesn’t seem very drastic.
A large number of companies have instituted a work-from-home policy in response, mine among them. Indefinite duration. Priority given to people who ride public transport, and especially people who are vulnerable from a health perspective. Estimate approximately 70% of the company will be working from home for at least two weeks.
Let's see if this works. Otherwise, it's soon the Wuhan routine or the default result: write off a low single-digit portion of the population in two months. The last option would be devastating.
Let's see if this works. Otherwise, it's soon the Wuhan routine or the default result: write off a low single-digit portion of the population in two months. The last option would be devastating.
It's drastic for authorities to make such a recommendation.
Smart move! Ignoring the best practice of preventing loss of life during pandemics will be a costly mistake!
In the press conference that was just held the minister of public health commented that he had been on a conference call with his Italian counterpart that had strongly advised him to shut everything down NOW, and not make the waiting mistake they did in Italy.
They, and almost every other European country, have already made that mistake. This decision is comparable to what Italy did on February 29th when they had 10% of the cases they have today. But Denmark is (if you correct for the smaller population) already at 60% of the cases that Italy has.
Switzerland and Norway are in that same boat. Spain is getting there, it's the country whose numbers are growing the fastest. France has elections on the 15th, 'nuff said.
Only Germany is comparable to that 10%, and they aren't doing anything either. They do have more ICU beds than others, but it isn't a great consolation.
Switzerland and Norway are in that same boat. Spain is getting there, it's the country whose numbers are growing the fastest. France has elections on the 15th, 'nuff said.
Only Germany is comparable to that 10%, and they aren't doing anything either. They do have more ICU beds than others, but it isn't a great consolation.
According to cdc expert, kids up to 19 mostly don't get sick, or if they do, it's not as bad as in adults over 40
https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw
https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw
Something that I heard from an epidemiologist the other day is how shutting down schools and daycares can be incredibly counterproductive, because such a high percentage of health care workers have children which suddenly are at home and need to be supervised, pulling these workers out of their duties.
I suppose its ok early on, but seems problematic if enough people eventually get infected.
Understood that schools are primary transmission vectors.
I suppose its ok early on, but seems problematic if enough people eventually get infected.
Understood that schools are primary transmission vectors.
I disagree here. Denmark is acting proactively and shutting down schools for 2 weeks. This is a "rip the band aid off early" type of move. By shutting down everything for 2 weeks, they effectively self-quarantine during the entire incubation period and will dramatically slow the rate of the virus.
China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.
These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching. The USA is not doing nearly enough. We're going to be Italy in about 2 weeks.
China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.
These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching. The USA is not doing nearly enough. We're going to be Italy in about 2 weeks.
for the two weeks as of day one of the changes. What if the virus shows up on day 15, the day after things return to normal? Will they stay shutdown for another two weeks?
>on day 15, the day after things return to normal
two weeks is when you will start entering really bad phase, not returning to normal. I am guessing ~100 dead in Denmark by April.
two weeks is when you will start entering really bad phase, not returning to normal. I am guessing ~100 dead in Denmark by April.
Yes. The PM made clear that the two weeks were for now, and might be extended, modified, or amended with further restrictions.
The virus will show up afterwards but could already be slowed by then combined with fewer infections from people returning from abroad. But they will have to see simply.
>effectively self-quarantine
no such thing
>China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.
where did you get that 6 months number from? considering Virus started in January and its March now.
>These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching.
there is nothing aggressive or far-reaching in those moves, Poland enacted similar measures yesterday and every expert agrees its not enough and too late.
no such thing
>China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.
where did you get that 6 months number from? considering Virus started in January and its March now.
>These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching.
there is nothing aggressive or far-reaching in those moves, Poland enacted similar measures yesterday and every expert agrees its not enough and too late.
I live in Denmark and have been following this way too closely. I think we will be Italy within the next two weeks. Until today people have been completely unconcerned. But in the last three days the number of detected cases has jumped from 37 to 92 to 264 to 516. Nobody was taking this seriously until today, and there's just no way this hasn't already spread across the country undetected.
The number of "detected" cases is influenced by the testing capability of those performing the tests. In a few days the real average "growth" rate will be clearer, but until the effects of some strong enough measures start to affect the numbers nobody can expect anything much better than what we see in Italy -- the curves across the Europe have "similar" growth:
https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237781162153717760
or
https://twitter.com/illandancient/status/1237857213621907456
https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237781162153717760
or
https://twitter.com/illandancient/status/1237857213621907456
Sorry for not being clear. The point I'm making is exactly that people have been complacent due to the low numbers, primarily sure to inadequate testing.
This is an analysis if you just shutdown schools, if you send all but critical for food/power/utilities workers home and pay them, then the assumptions are completely different.
I wonder what basically a 2-4 week vacation for an entire nation looks like.
I wonder what basically a 2-4 week vacation for an entire nation looks like.
China since Lunar New Year?
Dane here. Those who can't get child care otherwise will be able to have them cared for in the system.
I haven't heard any authoritative sources talk about that. Do you have a cite?
The world is in crisis. Arguing against public attempts to contain a virus based on "Something that I heard" is more than a little irresponsible right now. Surely the point is valid as a debate subject, but it needs numbers and it needs analysis. Prima facie, social isolation works, and at this stage is our only remaining hope at containment.
The world is in crisis. Arguing against public attempts to contain a virus based on "Something that I heard" is more than a little irresponsible right now. Surely the point is valid as a debate subject, but it needs numbers and it needs analysis. Prima facie, social isolation works, and at this stage is our only remaining hope at containment.
Probably best to shut them down too early or not at all. Grandparents tend to be relied upon as babysitters in time of need, so if you wait until transmission among school children is widespread your actions just delivered the virus to some of the most vulnerable populations.
My parents are elderly and my partner's parents live 150 miles away, and both work; We have no family that is able or willing to watch our child so we pay for care (and it's hugely expensive, over $2500/mo for center based care)
My partner works as an RN, and I'm in software development. I've always taken the days off when our child is ill, it's logistically simpler, but I make 2X the salary so we have always said my job is the priority if we lose child care long term.
If our daycare closes for a long period that means my partner needs to stop going to work and there's one less RN at that hospital.
To make things worse, our daycare has already stated that the current "24 hours fever free" policy of your child returning is now "14 days fever free, or a physician's note indicating it's safe to return" -- and you must keep paying while they are out, that's the existing policy when it's a day or so and apparently will continue even when it's two+ weeks... no relief expected.
If daycares are forced to shutdown, but still require payment from parents, that will be absolutely egregious and infuriating.
My partner works as an RN, and I'm in software development. I've always taken the days off when our child is ill, it's logistically simpler, but I make 2X the salary so we have always said my job is the priority if we lose child care long term.
If our daycare closes for a long period that means my partner needs to stop going to work and there's one less RN at that hospital.
To make things worse, our daycare has already stated that the current "24 hours fever free" policy of your child returning is now "14 days fever free, or a physician's note indicating it's safe to return" -- and you must keep paying while they are out, that's the existing policy when it's a day or so and apparently will continue even when it's two+ weeks... no relief expected.
If daycares are forced to shutdown, but still require payment from parents, that will be absolutely egregious and infuriating.
Did you press one 0 too many there? You could hire private nanny for $2.5K/me.
Assuming grandparents live near their families, and are alive, and are capable of child care.
Denmark is geographically a relatively small country, and it is not uncommon for children to travel alone across the country in dedicated trains[1] for the children during the weekends.
That said, its really not uncommon for other family members besides grandparents and even friends of the family to take care of your children in Denmark.
[1]: (In Danish) https://www.dsb.dk/find-produkter-og-services/dsb-borneguide...
That said, its really not uncommon for other family members besides grandparents and even friends of the family to take care of your children in Denmark.
[1]: (In Danish) https://www.dsb.dk/find-produkter-og-services/dsb-borneguide...
Actually this was dicouraged by a doctor. Grandparents usually belongs to the extract group who's exposure we're trying to limit
A virologist mentioned that kids up until 19 basically don't get sick from this virus, something like 0.2%, and even if they do its not as hard on them as on adult in their 40ies or older. So indeed very counter productive
0.2% is the mortality rate up to 19, not the risk of getting sick (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Morta...). The disease can be serious even if it's not fatal, and children can easily spread the virus to their families. It's even possible for someone to become infected and spread the virus without showing any symptoms at all.
They still carry it. And can in turn infect their parents
Do you mean that they do not catch the virus or that they do not have any severe symptoms but can still transmit?
He means the former, but it's actually the latter.
Isn't it both? Kids get it less often then adults, if they do they have a lower mortality rate (0% in fact for kids < 12), and don't seem to transmit it significantly to adults. (it's adults infecting them)
source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
Kids are much worse vectors for the spread of the disease, so this is absolutely NOT a good argument.
If they can still carry and spread it, and may show very few symptoms (if any), that can be quite dangerous.
Schools will be open for children with parents who have critical jobs. So it’s not really an issue.
No they wont, schools will shut fully down. For ppl that rely on child care, and cant do it themselves, something will be provided. But the schools are not it.
[deleted]
The prime minister said schools and daycares would stay open to serve those. Also that the school itself is not the problem, only the amount of people.
Denmark has a substantial safety net with generous parental leave policies. Accordingly, it would expected that one parent or relative could help out without impacting their own income and job security.
Our kindergarten is currently preparing for just that. Which parents have other options of day care, who can have kids at home, who can take additional kids. I understood that to be something city wide. I have no problem having three instead of two kids at home, I working from home anyway, so if I have my own kids or an additional one doesn't make much of a difference for me. But it does for other parents.
If you know any parents that need help, some resources here:
https://www.modulo.app/covid19
It is a war and calculation should be done in a different way.
1. Healthcare system is the TOP priority and keeps its resource adequate is critical.
2. If workers need to take care of their children, try to seek more ways to staff the hospital: (1) recruiting volunteers for non-specialized roles (2) adjusting shifts (3) concentrate resources, even move resources geographically.
Basically this is what China has done to bend the curve and what Italy is currently doing. You have to think this as a whole.
1. Healthcare system is the TOP priority and keeps its resource adequate is critical.
2. If workers need to take care of their children, try to seek more ways to staff the hospital: (1) recruiting volunteers for non-specialized roles (2) adjusting shifts (3) concentrate resources, even move resources geographically.
Basically this is what China has done to bend the curve and what Italy is currently doing. You have to think this as a whole.
I saw the Joe Rogan clip[1] and I agree that Michael Osterholm's analysis of this seems correct when it comes to the United States.
Denmark however has a completely different structure socially. All private sector employees who can work from home are urged to work from home. All public sector employees who are not working in any matter-of-life-and-death function are forced to stay at home. The public sector employees will still get paid despite not working. Practically this means very, very few cases of health care workers with children needs to be home supervising the children.
[1]: https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts
Denmark however has a completely different structure socially. All private sector employees who can work from home are urged to work from home. All public sector employees who are not working in any matter-of-life-and-death function are forced to stay at home. The public sector employees will still get paid despite not working. Practically this means very, very few cases of health care workers with children needs to be home supervising the children.
[1]: https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts
Wait, how would this prevent health care workers with children from needing to be home? Who is going to be watching those kids while the parents are working at a hospital?
There might be some cases where watching the kids for them is difficult, but most likely the local hospitals already have an idea for this for the minority of employees whose single parent or both parents work in healthcare. Usually their partner can help out.
Emergency daycare facilities will be available for those that have no other options.
How about keeping the daycares open for the children of those in healthcare and only for them? Still a big spread reduction, zero healthcare side-effects. It would be very difficult to enforce because so many others would think that they deserve an exception as well...
Most children have two parents. The few cases where both parents work in health care they most likely have immediate family and/or friends who are either public workers or private sector workers who can work from home.
The parent thats not working at a hospital
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> Understood that schools are primary transmission vectors.
Are they? There seems to be limited transmission from children (to other children or even adults), in part because they generally aren't getting symptomatic when exposed.
via https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...:
. "For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa."
I don't deny kids can transmit it to other kids, just that the odds are low. In fact, the only school I could find that was a cluster (Suyeong-gu Kindergarten in Korea) was 5 infected adults, 1 infected kid, and 160 negatives (which I assume were dominated by children).
Does anyone know of school clusters that have emerged?
Are they? There seems to be limited transmission from children (to other children or even adults), in part because they generally aren't getting symptomatic when exposed.
via https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...:
. "For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa."
I don't deny kids can transmit it to other kids, just that the odds are low. In fact, the only school I could find that was a cluster (Suyeong-gu Kindergarten in Korea) was 5 infected adults, 1 infected kid, and 160 negatives (which I assume were dominated by children).
Does anyone know of school clusters that have emerged?
I'm surprised they don't just provide a day care service for the children of healthcare workers, considering those children are more likely to get infected by their parent anyways just preemptively treat them as patients with some shared curriculum and oversight.
Well, let’s think about what might happen: people still need to work, and children want to play. Hey let’s meet all at one parent’s home today and tomorrow at the next...
I really doubt it is as effective as many think unless there is a general lock down and people are expected not to visit other people.
I really doubt it is as effective as many think unless there is a general lock down and people are expected not to visit other people.
There's a big difference between putting 500 kids in a building for eight hours a day and a bunch of small, clustered groups of kids forming for playdates.
PM said that people in critical functions who could find a care solution for their kids should show up to school -- and a solution would be worked out.
She admitted that the specifics of such solutions are not known at this time.
She admitted that the specifics of such solutions are not known at this time.
Norway got more cases than denmark (622 vs 514), and our government is still asleep. The "wait and see" attitude makes shure they are always 3 steps behind.
At this point the number of cases is slightly less important than the rate. Denmark's numbers are increasing at a rate that's unprecedented amongst all current COVID-19 outbreaks (amongst the data that is available). The past 2 days the numbers in Denmark have tripled twice (and are on track to triple another time today).
You could expect Denmarks numbers to overtake Norway's before the end of today or whenever the new measurements come in.
You could expect Denmarks numbers to overtake Norway's before the end of today or whenever the new measurements come in.
Denmark's # of confirmed cases was up 627% from yesterday.
For anyone interested in watching this unfold, I highly recommend the daily posts by /u/Fwoggie2 on /r/supplychain. Every day he posts a status update on the growth of cases per country and supply chain impacts for goods across the globe. Here's the link to today's report. https://new.reddit.com/r/supplychain/comments/fgwbrx/covid19...
For anyone interested in watching this unfold, I highly recommend the daily posts by /u/Fwoggie2 on /r/supplychain. Every day he posts a status update on the growth of cases per country and supply chain impacts for goods across the globe. Here's the link to today's report. https://new.reddit.com/r/supplychain/comments/fgwbrx/covid19...
It's worth pointing out that he seems to have missed the update on 2020-03-09 where the total was set to 90. But yeah it's pretty worrying. Especially since it almost doubled again today.
Probably more Danes to skiing in northern Italy.
And who knows maybe the authorities have done a good job tracking down infected people -- implying that the number of unknown cases is small.
And who knows maybe the authorities have done a good job tracking down infected people -- implying that the number of unknown cases is small.
The reason for these actions are that they can no longer track the infections.
Well, they said that they would continue, but that they don't expect to be able to track everything.
In fact from what I understand that have been able to track most cases.
Honestly, I'm guessing this is the case because they tracked the cases from original sources and then kept following them.
Being good at tracing could also explain why the number jumped so much. Tripling in 3 days, maybe it's easy to find cases if you trace contact :D
In fact from what I understand that have been able to track most cases.
Honestly, I'm guessing this is the case because they tracked the cases from original sources and then kept following them.
Being good at tracing could also explain why the number jumped so much. Tripling in 3 days, maybe it's easy to find cases if you trace contact :D
This is actually a great opportunity for a natural experiment. AFAIK Norws and Swedes have similar cultures re: touching and kissing; probably very similar genetics too.
Curiosity aside: hope you live long and lucky.
Curiosity aside: hope you live long and lucky.
But Danes travel more to nothern Italy for skiing.
Or, alternatively, everyone's freaking out over something that just isn't as big a deal as everyone's making it out to be.
The risks of not freaking out and it decimating the populace should easily outweigh the risks of freaking out and it not having an impact. It's very difficult to even rationalize the latter because a freakout might mean the impact is negligible.
At this point more than enough data exists to show the population will not be decimated.
At this point more than enough data exists to show the population will suffer ~1% losses. We shouldn't need 10% to freak out. Not to mention long-tail fatalities that might arise if it becomes an annual virus like the flu. When all that had to happen was people treat it seriously to begin with rather than saying "But the flu is way worse".
Maybe, or maybe not. Let’s say it’s 0.5% fatal and largely only to folks who are older and have comorbid conditions. Instead we panic 100% of people, leading to mass hysteria, loss of livelihood, global recession, military zombie apocalypse lockdowns and so on. What if our response causes more harm? It might well.
Proportionality of response matters and so do second and third order effects. What if all the above causes more than 5000 suicides? Did we win?
Proportionality of response matters and so do second and third order effects. What if all the above causes more than 5000 suicides? Did we win?
The difference between 0.5% and 3% case fatality rate is in large part determined by whether hospitals become overwhelmed, and that in turn will be determined by whether we take immediate and widespread preemptive action to reduce the exponent of the infection curve.
Case fatality rate is not mortality rate. Until the end of an outbreak where they converge, it's much higher.
This is what lethal ignorance looks like.
0.5% lethal according to the latest stats — or 99.5% non-lethal for you optimists out there.
Generate a random int from [0,199]. If you generated a 0, you die.
Rationally, you pretty confident that you won't die? Sure. But what behavior changes are you willing to tolerate not to have to take the chance? I sure wouldn't take the bet on a lark, even though the expectation is that I live.
Now think about extending that same game to your family and friends, to the school down the street, to the shopping mall, and to the elder's home in town. Some people are going to roll 0, and there's a real risk that some of those people are people you know and care about. And even if they're not, your community will still be dramatically affected. It could be your car mechanic, your office's custodial staff, or the greybeard in your office who knows how to decipher the old FORTRAN code.
I'm not willing to be flippant about that. Even 1 in 200 people can be devastating emotional, logistical, and financial toll on a community. I'm not saying panic, but I don't think it's smart or responsible to downplay the risks of infection in a disease that is currently spreading exponentially (or, at least, maintains a positive growth ratio.) Canceling gatherings, temporarily closing schools, working from home, etc.--these are all inconvenient, they make our lives and business harder, they're having a negative financial impact. But they're also totally the reasonable course of action in the face of a pretty serious threat.
Rationally, you pretty confident that you won't die? Sure. But what behavior changes are you willing to tolerate not to have to take the chance? I sure wouldn't take the bet on a lark, even though the expectation is that I live.
Now think about extending that same game to your family and friends, to the school down the street, to the shopping mall, and to the elder's home in town. Some people are going to roll 0, and there's a real risk that some of those people are people you know and care about. And even if they're not, your community will still be dramatically affected. It could be your car mechanic, your office's custodial staff, or the greybeard in your office who knows how to decipher the old FORTRAN code.
I'm not willing to be flippant about that. Even 1 in 200 people can be devastating emotional, logistical, and financial toll on a community. I'm not saying panic, but I don't think it's smart or responsible to downplay the risks of infection in a disease that is currently spreading exponentially (or, at least, maintains a positive growth ratio.) Canceling gatherings, temporarily closing schools, working from home, etc.--these are all inconvenient, they make our lives and business harder, they're having a negative financial impact. But they're also totally the reasonable course of action in the face of a pretty serious threat.
There's a 1% lifetime chance you die in a car accident and 2% you die of an opioid overdose. Roll a die between [0,199] and get a 0,1 you die in a car wreck. Roll a 2,3,4 or a 5, and you die of an opioid overdose. I'd be willing to bet somewhere around the 6-10 range represents your risk of dying of a climate related change.
Rationally, you pretty confident that you won't die? Sure. But what behavior changes are you willing to tolerate not to have to take the chance?
Evidently none, because here we are diving cars, taking painkillers and rolling coal. This is a solid read: [1]. If you're immunocompromised or old, by all means, stay inside and don't associate with groups of people. If you're young and healthy, you're totally unequivocally fine.
This quote is particularly apropos: "...We're bad at accurately assessing risk; we tend to exaggerate spectacular, strange, and rare events, and downplay ordinary, familiar, and common ones."
[1] https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreas...
Rationally, you pretty confident that you won't die? Sure. But what behavior changes are you willing to tolerate not to have to take the chance?
Evidently none, because here we are diving cars, taking painkillers and rolling coal. This is a solid read: [1]. If you're immunocompromised or old, by all means, stay inside and don't associate with groups of people. If you're young and healthy, you're totally unequivocally fine.
This quote is particularly apropos: "...We're bad at accurately assessing risk; we tend to exaggerate spectacular, strange, and rare events, and downplay ordinary, familiar, and common ones."
[1] https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreas...
You're comparing lifetime risks with an annual risk. And your third paragraph is so full of misinformation, I almost believe you're intentionally trolling.
And Bruce isn't discussing a failure to assess the risk of COVID-19 (the article is from 2013). He's criticizing the fetish of expect technology to solve social problems. I've interviewed Bruce and I think he'd be appalled to think his essay was being misconstrued in this manner.
And Bruce isn't discussing a failure to assess the risk of COVID-19 (the article is from 2013). He's criticizing the fetish of expect technology to solve social problems. I've interviewed Bruce and I think he'd be appalled to think his essay was being misconstrued in this manner.
> You're comparing lifetime risks with an annual risk.
And? People tend to develop immunity to diseases the've had in the past (although this is TBD in this specific case) so lifetime risk could easily be a reasonable comparison metric. My point is we do very dangerous things regularly, but because we're used to them, we largely ignore them.
Cigarettes kill 480,000 people in the US alone each year [0]. The flu kills 61,000 people in the US alone each year. Alcohol kills 88,000 people in the US alone each year. Opioids kill 77,000 people in the US alone each year.
There are 6 million car accidents in the US each year of which 2 million people receive permanent injuries and 36,000 die.
nCoV-19 is on track to kill 100 in the US.
> And your third paragraph is so full of misinformation, I almost believe you're intentionally trolling.
How so? The mortality rates are clear: under 10, 0% chance of death. 11-39, 0.2% chance of death. 40-49, 0.4% chance of death. [1] Older folks, higher rates, but of course, H1N1 kills 10% of elderly folks that get it too. And these are CFRs -- numbers which go down, sometimes dramatically, over time as we gain a fuller perspective on the situation.
If you're young you are fine. Children are basically unaffected, that is, they catch it, and it goes away. Often they don't even notice they had it.
> And Bruce isn't discussing a failure to assess the risk of COVID-19 (the article is from 2013).
I never said he was. The quote was pretty clear and free-standing: people are bad at assessing risk of unlikely or one-off events. It terrifies them.
In my opinion the essay evaluates one set of strategies people use to avoid risk at all costs: technological, but it's the realization of the underlying that is relevant here.
[0] https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/heal...
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
And? People tend to develop immunity to diseases the've had in the past (although this is TBD in this specific case) so lifetime risk could easily be a reasonable comparison metric. My point is we do very dangerous things regularly, but because we're used to them, we largely ignore them.
Cigarettes kill 480,000 people in the US alone each year [0]. The flu kills 61,000 people in the US alone each year. Alcohol kills 88,000 people in the US alone each year. Opioids kill 77,000 people in the US alone each year.
There are 6 million car accidents in the US each year of which 2 million people receive permanent injuries and 36,000 die.
nCoV-19 is on track to kill 100 in the US.
> And your third paragraph is so full of misinformation, I almost believe you're intentionally trolling.
How so? The mortality rates are clear: under 10, 0% chance of death. 11-39, 0.2% chance of death. 40-49, 0.4% chance of death. [1] Older folks, higher rates, but of course, H1N1 kills 10% of elderly folks that get it too. And these are CFRs -- numbers which go down, sometimes dramatically, over time as we gain a fuller perspective on the situation.
If you're young you are fine. Children are basically unaffected, that is, they catch it, and it goes away. Often they don't even notice they had it.
> And Bruce isn't discussing a failure to assess the risk of COVID-19 (the article is from 2013).
I never said he was. The quote was pretty clear and free-standing: people are bad at assessing risk of unlikely or one-off events. It terrifies them.
In my opinion the essay evaluates one set of strategies people use to avoid risk at all costs: technological, but it's the realization of the underlying that is relevant here.
[0] https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/heal...
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
Or in the realm of 3% when hospitals are saturated, because everyone gets sick at once. Which they will with exponential spread and a doubling rate of 4 days.
I don't consider it acceptable to sacrifice 3% of the population in one fell swoop, to avoid short-term economic damage. Or even a fraction of that. It's abhorrent. Please walk me through the moral reasoning if this is your stance.
By the way, someone getting very, very sad because their quite healthy loved parent died a decade too early, is also economic damage.
I don't consider it acceptable to sacrifice 3% of the population in one fell swoop, to avoid short-term economic damage. Or even a fraction of that. It's abhorrent. Please walk me through the moral reasoning if this is your stance.
By the way, someone getting very, very sad because their quite healthy loved parent died a decade too early, is also economic damage.
These are iniatives to spare the old and the weak. How little regard do you have for these people? Their mortality rate is way higher than 0.5%
Read my response to a sister comment.
I did. It is clear that you have no idea how bad this have gotten in other countries.
I've been following the data, response and market reactions very closely.
It will be interesting to see how these things / if they help.
The scale of impact and longevity of these shutdowns could be dramatic.
Keeping kids home certainly restricts what parents can do. Some of whom may be needed to do other things.
Is there really a lot of good data to know, this will do a thing?
The scale of impact and longevity of these shutdowns could be dramatic.
Keeping kids home certainly restricts what parents can do. Some of whom may be needed to do other things.
Is there really a lot of good data to know, this will do a thing?
> Keeping kids home certainly restricts what parents can do. Some of whom may be needed to do other things.
Nope, not in Denmark: if they're needed then they are exempt.
Nope, not in Denmark: if they're needed then they are exempt.
Exempt as in their kids can go to daycare?
Yes, of course, if it neccessary. That's what the following Danish translates to
> Dog vil visse institutioner blive holdt åben for forældre, der ikke kan finde anden løsning, og for forældre, der varetager kritiske hverv og ikke kan finde anden løsning.
From https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/danmark-bliver-lukket-ned-...
DR is Denmark's public service radio/tv.
> Dog vil visse institutioner blive holdt åben for forældre, der ikke kan finde anden løsning, og for forældre, der varetager kritiske hverv og ikke kan finde anden løsning.
From https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/danmark-bliver-lukket-ned-...
DR is Denmark's public service radio/tv.
All of these shutdowns, especially the large ones recently announced, raise the question: how long?
How long do we continue and what criteria will be used to begin opening things back up?
How long before other parts of the economy begin to fail?
How long do we continue and what criteria will be used to begin opening things back up?
How long before other parts of the economy begin to fail?
In Denmark it's 2 weeks starting friday. After that the lockdown will be reassessed.
Until there's a vaccine this is all "flattening the curve" trying to limit the overall number of severely sick individuals to a level that they can get hospital care.
My point as well. Things are not gonna be any better 2-4 weeks from now.
Only days ago, a Denmark university professor openly claimed ( actually more like lashed out ) at Hong Kong people /students over-reacting with CoronaVirus and there is no need to wear masks.
I guess that didn't age well. Still wish more people have trusted the advice from HK from our experiences with SARS and how to handle information from CCP.
I guess that didn't age well. Still wish more people have trusted the advice from HK from our experiences with SARS and how to handle information from CCP.
Denmark still recommends that people don't get masks.
Gje cultural difference between Asia and Europe regarding masks is interesting.
Gje cultural difference between Asia and Europe regarding masks is interesting.
About time... They might be able to reduce R0 < 1 and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks. On the other hand, Spain and Germany are going to blow up next week, Italy-style.
Not sure i would use blow up to describe the situation.
If you look at the Median age in Europe, the oldest population are found in Italy, Germany, Portugal and Greece, see https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
The mortality rate is still quite uncertain, either you believe the Chinese data (https://www.flattenthecurve.com/) or you can lean towards the South Korean data (https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...). The Korean data has half the mortality rate of that in China.
Bottom-line is that we are doing this to protect the elderly, so that the healthcare system won't be overrun. And in the process hopefully a vaccine or treatment will be introduced to counter the virus.
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The mortality rate is still quite uncertain, either you believe the Chinese data (https://www.flattenthecurve.com/) or you can lean towards the South Korean data (https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...). The Korean data has half the mortality rate of that in China.
Bottom-line is that we are doing this to protect the elderly, so that the healthcare system won't be overrun. And in the process hopefully a vaccine or treatment will be introduced to counter the virus.
What makes you think that? Seriously asking, because I don't see that risk right now. Also, if it does blow up like Italy we will just have to take it up from there, no point in arguing about the past.
This Reddit thread over at /r/europe has pretty compelling visualizations:
https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_i...
Germany lags 8 days behind Italy, Spain 7 days.
https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_i...
Germany lags 8 days behind Italy, Spain 7 days.
It is not the most popular opinion, but unless the modeling is coming from legit experts, as compared to some people playing with numbers, I prefer to ignore them. I stick with sources like the WHO and local health authorities, simply becasue they have the knowledge, expertie, man power and data basis to come up with reliable numbers.
That being said, Austria is closing schools starting next week, Bavaria is discussing the same. Denmark and Plnd are closing schools as well. So even if Italy is 7 days ahead, other Eurpean countries are closing down sooner.
That being said, Austria is closing schools starting next week, Bavaria is discussing the same. Denmark and Plnd are closing schools as well. So even if Italy is 7 days ahead, other Eurpean countries are closing down sooner.
Which is a good thing in both cases you mentioned. Though seeing those visualizations could put things in a proper perspective and prompt officials to act quickly while they could still do something about it. Many health experts are worried and are expressing their concerns publicly already.
/r/covid19 is trying to keep all posts scientific and high quality, maybe you can monitor it over there for latest info.
/r/covid19 is trying to keep all posts scientific and high quality, maybe you can monitor it over there for latest info.
Not that active on reddit, but given that the data presentation from WHO and co. is abysmal, both in style and depth, I might give it a try. Not that I am following it to closely until now, so. Might change, so.
I would love to get my hands on the raw data the WHO has so. Not post any results online or publicly, but to toy around with them. It is such an intriguing data set!
I would love to get my hands on the raw data the WHO has so. Not post any results online or publicly, but to toy around with them. It is such an intriguing data set!
Here are datasets:
https://lionbridge.ai/datasets/coronavirus-datasets-from-eve...
Can't vouch for their accuracy though so be careful with any results.
https://lionbridge.ai/datasets/coronavirus-datasets-from-eve...
Can't vouch for their accuracy though so be careful with any results.
You are ruining my whole schedule for tomorrow, man! Just as a heads up, i am no ML guy or even data scientist, just a logistics guy who loves to crunch numbers in Excel. So I don't think you have to go through the pain to indirectly reach out to the CDC just tosatisfy my curiosity! But thanks a lot for the link!
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> and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks
Unlikely... even if they could wave a magic wand and wipe out the disease in Denmark entirely they are just going to be re-infected via people from other countries.
Unlikely... even if they could wave a magic wand and wipe out the disease in Denmark entirely they are just going to be re-infected via people from other countries.
Important is that they are then able to quickly disperse local outbreaks once they are familiar with how to handle it. Right now they are fighting to keep it contained nation-wide, i.e. reducing R0 to under 1, that should last up to 4 weeks if China is any kind of a reliable indicator, then local outbreaks might still happen but could be quickly quarantined without overloading ICUs.
It's my understanding that the UK's reserved response so far is because a 'shut down' is not sustainable for a long time, and we feel that it's not the right time to start yet.
Yeah, we're going to get a lot of interesting natural experimental data on pandemics and the responses to them from the differing actions of countries to this outbreak.
Madrid has also shut all schools and universities as of today, for 2 weeks.
Did the article previously mention daycare facilities? Not explicitly stated right now.
Interestingly Iceland, which has most of it's infections from Italy (and the other Alpine countries), designated those countries as areas with high risk of infection long before those countries would admit it, is not looking into these kinds of closures. I understand that they request people not to gather in large groups, on a completely voluntary basis and anyone is free to self-quarantine with pay or benefits.
The consensus over there is that the disruptions would be worse than an increase in infections. Closing schools and other limits would only delay the infections and they would likely become unmanageable when limits are lifted. The emphasis is on protecting those that are most likely to get seriously sick, and not limiting the number of infections of those that are not at (high) risk. They also consider that if those that have been infected build immunity, it would be better (and I'm paraphrasing) "to just get it over with."
On Friday they will start testing around the country to get a better understanding of the infection rate, especially whether it's already prevalent in the community. This will be on an unprecedented scale, as they expect to test >2% of the population. The expected result is that the infection is already widely distributed in the community.
The consensus over there is that the disruptions would be worse than an increase in infections. Closing schools and other limits would only delay the infections and they would likely become unmanageable when limits are lifted. The emphasis is on protecting those that are most likely to get seriously sick, and not limiting the number of infections of those that are not at (high) risk. They also consider that if those that have been infected build immunity, it would be better (and I'm paraphrasing) "to just get it over with."
On Friday they will start testing around the country to get a better understanding of the infection rate, especially whether it's already prevalent in the community. This will be on an unprecedented scale, as they expect to test >2% of the population. The expected result is that the infection is already widely distributed in the community.
This seems like an insane policy based on what we know about sars2-cov and the demographics of Iceland. Over 25% of the population (95K) is in the most vulnerable age group. If just 1% of that cohort becomes sick, you'll swamp the entire healthcare system. And that's excluding the effect on the other 75%. Just because they're risk is lower doesn't mean they won't need hospital care.
30 intensive care beds may prove insufficient if there is widespread infection. Not only the elderly need intensive care: in Italy 40% of the patients in intensive care are below 60.
It's expected that about 550-600 people would have to be sick (not just infected) before their 29 ICU bed's are at capacity.
Infected people are more likely to be symptomatic than not, as far as we know (for example from the Diamond Princess).
Even if it was only 10%, should I find reassuring that 6000 people (less than 2% of the population) would have to get infected for the collapse of the healthcare infrastructure to start?
Even if it was only 10%, should I find reassuring that 6000 people (less than 2% of the population) would have to get infected for the collapse of the healthcare infrastructure to start?
29 ICU beds will not be able to handle the oncoming wave of patients. My city is roughly the same size population as Iceland and only has 900 hospital beds. I don't know how many of those are ICU, or could be converted to makeshift ICU as Italy has been doing.