South Korea's drive-through testing for coronavirus(npr.org)
npr.org
South Korea's drive-through testing for coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/13/815441078/south-koreas-drive-through-testing-for-coronavirus-is-fast-and-free
132 comments
ailideex(2)
One could built UV-Lightmasks.
A transparent hose, add UV-LEDS to sterilize the flowing air. Dry the air at the start with silica gel. All that is needed then is a battery.
The silica gel can be heated every once in a while to loose any moisture bound it and sterilize virus particles attached to it.
A transparent hose, add UV-LEDS to sterilize the flowing air. Dry the air at the start with silica gel. All that is needed then is a battery.
The silica gel can be heated every once in a while to loose any moisture bound it and sterilize virus particles attached to it.
Might as well make it a fully closed rebreather gear(note: CO2 removal is more important than adding oxygen)
I hate to see creative ideas being down-voted by the mob.
While the length of UV exposure time required to kill viruses is probably impractical for a mask, certain UV bands could be instrumental for sanitizing public areas and hospitals. [0]
[0] https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20180212/can-uv-ligh...
While the length of UV exposure time required to kill viruses is probably impractical for a mask, certain UV bands could be instrumental for sanitizing public areas and hospitals. [0]
[0] https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20180212/can-uv-ligh...
You'd need a specific wavelength (265nm seems to be the standard) and they get pretty expensive. A UV LED from adafruit or sparkfun will probably not be sufficient.
At a glance they sell LEDs around 400nm which from my cursory reading wouldn't be effective for what you're imagining.
Not to say this would never work. Just that you would need special parts that are less common and more expensive by orders of magnitude.
I've also read that sterilizing very fast moving air doesn't work well. It seems HVAC systems use extremely intense light order to be effective in these conditions, which a small LED (or a few) wouldn't accomplish.
At a glance they sell LEDs around 400nm which from my cursory reading wouldn't be effective for what you're imagining.
Not to say this would never work. Just that you would need special parts that are less common and more expensive by orders of magnitude.
I've also read that sterilizing very fast moving air doesn't work well. It seems HVAC systems use extremely intense light order to be effective in these conditions, which a small LED (or a few) wouldn't accomplish.
It seems more productive to hit the room with far UVC, and there are already some products that do that, not sure about scale though.
It would probably be easier to deploy far-uvc or resonant microwave anti microbial systems.
So... what's the course of action for medical staff?
Here in Denmark we have just shut our borders. You can no longer enter as Swede.
We as nation put on extreme measures but there is no visibility.
What is the true number of infected in Denmark? There is no sampling or systematic measurement going on.
We probably know less than you guys in Sweden yet we choose the most extreme actions.
We just had our PM go on national TV and call on all Danes to return to Denmark as she shut down the border.
We as nation put on extreme measures but there is no visibility.
What is the true number of infected in Denmark? There is no sampling or systematic measurement going on.
We probably know less than you guys in Sweden yet we choose the most extreme actions.
We just had our PM go on national TV and call on all Danes to return to Denmark as she shut down the border.
>We as nation put on extreme measures
sarcasm? or heard on TV to calm the population?
This is how extreme measures look like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXpHD9bjGe0
Denmark is negligent, as is rest of Europe.
sarcasm? or heard on TV to calm the population?
This is how extreme measures look like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXpHD9bjGe0
Denmark is negligent, as is rest of Europe.
I don't know what Denmark is but I am worried.
Three weeks ago our PM was busy playing petty political games with the opposition, today she is shutting down our borders preventing all foreigners entering the country.
Three weeks ago our PM was busy playing petty political games with the opposition, today she is shutting down our borders preventing all foreigners entering the country.
Given the massive explosion in cases in Denmark, going from 514 to 1573 in two days, closing the borders is probably wise. For a country with just 5.9 million people, that's a recipe for collapsing your healthcare system if the cases continue to increase like that for much longer.
There are not many medical systems on the planet that could handle that per capita case load increase in such a short amount of time (specifically the intensive care patients that will go with it in the coming days and weeks).
There are not many medical systems on the planet that could handle that per capita case load increase in such a short amount of time (specifically the intensive care patients that will go with it in the coming days and weeks).
Depends on why the increase in cases? Just because succesfully traced and identified a group of cases, it doesn't tell you anything about the growth in the true number of infected.
There are 10 people in hospitals in Denmark for COVID19. None dead.
By the publicised numbers Sweden is hit about the same as Denmark; yet they choose a much more moderate approach.
There are 10 people in hospitals in Denmark for COVID19. None dead.
By the publicised numbers Sweden is hit about the same as Denmark; yet they choose a much more moderate approach.
It’s amazing that anyone can still be in doubt about drastic measures being necessary when we have Italy as an example of what can happen
Still seeing lots of "this is just the media blowing things out of proportion" posts on local news Facebook pages.
As if China can be explained that way.
As if China can be explained that way.
Just to be clear.
I have no opinion on whether this is blown out of proportion.
I can just see that my own country is choosing the most extreme measures (packaged in nationalistic rhetorics) where as our neighbours are not.
The idea that the population should be sampled so the exact extent of the spread can be measured (and so can the effect of the various policies) is not mine. Here is a Danish doctor calling for the same:
https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/overlaege-regeringens-corona...
In Danish. Headline: The Government's Corona-strategy misses focus on the engine of the epidemic
I have no opinion on whether this is blown out of proportion.
I can just see that my own country is choosing the most extreme measures (packaged in nationalistic rhetorics) where as our neighbours are not.
The idea that the population should be sampled so the exact extent of the spread can be measured (and so can the effect of the various policies) is not mine. Here is a Danish doctor calling for the same:
https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/overlaege-regeringens-corona...
In Danish. Headline: The Government's Corona-strategy misses focus on the engine of the epidemic
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_D..., it's 23 in hospital vs 801 total identified cases. That a hospitalization rate of only 2.8%. I wonder what accounts for the massive discrepancy from other countries.
Amount of people tested, age of people infected and time
So far the people infected skews fairly young
And the pandemic took hold around Tuesday and it takes about a week for hospitalization to be required in the severe cases
So far the people infected skews fairly young
And the pandemic took hold around Tuesday and it takes about a week for hospitalization to be required in the severe cases
There are test kits in the UK, but the same policy applies.
Why?
Because it no longer matters, the containment effort for individual cases is now over. Now we move on to more mass actions to delay and slow the peak of the epidemic - anyone with symptoms to self isolate for a week, regardless of positive test.
Why?
Because it no longer matters, the containment effort for individual cases is now over. Now we move on to more mass actions to delay and slow the peak of the epidemic - anyone with symptoms to self isolate for a week, regardless of positive test.
I suppose limitations on testing are going to make the official numbers less useful going forward, not that they were taken as anything but a very rough lower bound so far.
I mean, the Johns Hopkins map shows 13 infections in Ohio, and you have the director of the Ohio Department of Health saying it's 100,000. How do we know if either are anywhere close to right?
Presumably when things get bad it'll be impossible to hide it, as the hospitals will be over capacity. That's already happened in Wuhan and China, and probably Iran and some other places as well.
It would be nice if we had some sort of indication of where a particular region is on the scale from "hardly anyone has this yet" to "we're experiencing rampant community spread" that's more trustworthy/accurate than the official numbers.
I mean, the Johns Hopkins map shows 13 infections in Ohio, and you have the director of the Ohio Department of Health saying it's 100,000. How do we know if either are anywhere close to right?
Presumably when things get bad it'll be impossible to hide it, as the hospitals will be over capacity. That's already happened in Wuhan and China, and probably Iran and some other places as well.
It would be nice if we had some sort of indication of where a particular region is on the scale from "hardly anyone has this yet" to "we're experiencing rampant community spread" that's more trustworthy/accurate than the official numbers.
>It would be nice [...]
Here is data where “Total” is meant to represent the number tested. Ideally we would see this also represented as a percentage of the local population.
https://covidtracking.com/notes/
Here is data where “Total” is meant to represent the number tested. Ideally we would see this also represented as a percentage of the local population.
https://covidtracking.com/notes/
>anyone with symptoms to self isolate for a week, regardless of positive test.
In an ideal world we would already be doing this. I know that some people have to show up to work even if they're sick, but even at my job where we have unlimited sick leave, and are encouraged to use it, people still show up coughing and sniffling.
I don't get it.
If your employer encourages you to work from home when you're sick, and you're actually sick, please work from home! No one wants to catch your disease, whether it's Coronavirus or "just" the common cold.
In an ideal world we would already be doing this. I know that some people have to show up to work even if they're sick, but even at my job where we have unlimited sick leave, and are encouraged to use it, people still show up coughing and sniffling.
I don't get it.
If your employer encourages you to work from home when you're sick, and you're actually sick, please work from home! No one wants to catch your disease, whether it's Coronavirus or "just" the common cold.
This is a special case of course and I work for a company where we are told to work from home right now regardless of symptoms or not.
However when it comes to the common cold that is something that will be going of for weeks and return several times for some people, just the light symptoms. No fever but some coughing and sneezing.
For some job roles and in some companies with good culture it works great to work home but for a lot you cannot really be home for like 6 weeks every winter because you are missing out too much or are not effective enough.
However when it comes to the common cold that is something that will be going of for weeks and return several times for some people, just the light symptoms. No fever but some coughing and sneezing.
For some job roles and in some companies with good culture it works great to work home but for a lot you cannot really be home for like 6 weeks every winter because you are missing out too much or are not effective enough.
I disagree that the solution to "missing out too much" when you're sick is to go to work anyway and risk infecting co-workers.
According to the CDC, the average adult gets the common cold 2-3 times per year with symptoms lasting 7-10 days[1]. So it's more like 2-4 weeks per year, but I would imagine that number would decrease if you didn't have people coming into work sick in the first place (again, I recognize not every job will allow for this). Hong Kong's flu season apparently ended early this year due to the self isolation of sick people[2].
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/features/rhinoviruses/index.html
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307b...
According to the CDC, the average adult gets the common cold 2-3 times per year with symptoms lasting 7-10 days[1]. So it's more like 2-4 weeks per year, but I would imagine that number would decrease if you didn't have people coming into work sick in the first place (again, I recognize not every job will allow for this). Hong Kong's flu season apparently ended early this year due to the self isolation of sick people[2].
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/features/rhinoviruses/index.html
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307b...
> know that some people have to show up to work even if they're sick, but even at my job where we have unlimited sick leave, and are encouraged to use it, people still show up coughing and sniffling.
yes, the 'overzealous hero employee' archetype is very real. The Coronavirus aside I just wish this would generally become socially unacceptable. Not just during a pandemic but in general sacrificing health or sleep or some reasonable balance of life for work should not be celebrated.
yes, the 'overzealous hero employee' archetype is very real. The Coronavirus aside I just wish this would generally become socially unacceptable. Not just during a pandemic but in general sacrificing health or sleep or some reasonable balance of life for work should not be celebrated.
I agree but there are millions who literally cannot afford to stay home — or they risk making rent and buying food. We must solve this problem at once. Pandemics aren’t gonna go anyway.
"the containment effort for individual cases is now over"
Most countries didn't even attempt containment, as far as I can tell. Leaders seem to have surrendered to mass infection at the opening of the battle.
It seems pathetic and criminally negligent. It's an intentional trade of hundreds of thousands of lives (potentially millions) in exchange for some unpredictable economic gain. This could conceivably make sense if an uncontained financial crisis would lead to even more human suffering than an uncontained infection.
But it seems that we're likely to end up paying in a massive number of lives and a massive amount of money. When an aggressive containment strategy might have cost us primarily in terms of money.
Most countries didn't even attempt containment, as far as I can tell. Leaders seem to have surrendered to mass infection at the opening of the battle.
It seems pathetic and criminally negligent. It's an intentional trade of hundreds of thousands of lives (potentially millions) in exchange for some unpredictable economic gain. This could conceivably make sense if an uncontained financial crisis would lead to even more human suffering than an uncontained infection.
But it seems that we're likely to end up paying in a massive number of lives and a massive amount of money. When an aggressive containment strategy might have cost us primarily in terms of money.
I had a tweet from Flightradar24 show up on my timeline earlier:
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238102765081186306...
It kinda hit me immediately why this whole containment thing wasn't really working out. And this was March 12! How on earth do we tell people to not go outside, but months after it all started there are still thousands of airplanes flying.
Honorary mention for the countries that sent military transport airplanes to rescue 100 citizens from China like an asteroid was about to hit it and kept them in barracks for weeks, but have this kind of air traffic streaming in.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238102765081186306...
It kinda hit me immediately why this whole containment thing wasn't really working out. And this was March 12! How on earth do we tell people to not go outside, but months after it all started there are still thousands of airplanes flying.
Honorary mention for the countries that sent military transport airplanes to rescue 100 citizens from China like an asteroid was about to hit it and kept them in barracks for weeks, but have this kind of air traffic streaming in.
Yeah, it explains why the testing isn't happening as well. Why bother doing surveillance testing if you've already surrendered to a 70% infection rate?
There's no point. Better to just let people come to the hospital if they absolutely need to, rather than risk people coming to the ER just because they tested positive.
It is possible that Italy has made a mistake in doing as many tests as they have. I'm not sure what the numbers are but it could be that the addition of infected-but-not-seriously-ill patients is a major problem.
So maybe this anti-surveillance testing approach does make sense once you've conceded the battle to contain the infection.
There's no point. Better to just let people come to the hospital if they absolutely need to, rather than risk people coming to the ER just because they tested positive.
It is possible that Italy has made a mistake in doing as many tests as they have. I'm not sure what the numbers are but it could be that the addition of infected-but-not-seriously-ill patients is a major problem.
So maybe this anti-surveillance testing approach does make sense once you've conceded the battle to contain the infection.
[deleted]
Following your line of thought, giving people easy ways to self-diagnose as quickly as possible is critical. Can we at least deliver flu & cold medicine to as many people as humanly possible? For free? So that they can, themselves, eliminate Covid19 as a possible cause.
That will help flatten the curve.
In concert, universal healthcare at point of service is a must.
As is propping up the people via direct material aid. Food. Rent money. Paid sick leave.
I thought I heard Trump say that interest on federal student loans would be “waived”. Did he mean forgive or defer? I don’t know if it’s at all true because he is a compulsive liar.
If it is true, great. But insufficient.
What we also need is a debt jubilee and infra & public investments that are truly net-positive for the neediest.
This will lead to inflation. Which by the way will be sorely needed. And by every affected country. I’m curious about the MMT community‘s point of view on this.
That will help flatten the curve.
In concert, universal healthcare at point of service is a must.
As is propping up the people via direct material aid. Food. Rent money. Paid sick leave.
I thought I heard Trump say that interest on federal student loans would be “waived”. Did he mean forgive or defer? I don’t know if it’s at all true because he is a compulsive liar.
If it is true, great. But insufficient.
What we also need is a debt jubilee and infra & public investments that are truly net-positive for the neediest.
This will lead to inflation. Which by the way will be sorely needed. And by every affected country. I’m curious about the MMT community‘s point of view on this.
Keep in mind a lot of those flights are flying empty due to use it or loose it rules.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-some-airlines-ar...
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-some-airlines-ar...
I agree with this comment. I see it as pragmatic thinking not to test people at this point. It is a special situation, if you show any symptom of sickness just stay at home, it should be a no-brainer. What if you cough in public? Will you shout "IT IS JUST A COMMON COLD" and people will feel safe? Actually people who "just have a bit of a cold" should stay at home in normal circumstances too in my opinion. It might be OK for you to have a runny nose but some other poor guy might catch your cold and get it worse because of bad immune system. Its comes down to individualistic vs collectivist thinking and now might be the time to think about the greater good.
OTOH this will likely have 60-80% penetration so we should all get used to people coughing, and be kind while distancing.
Same in Finland, but there are exceptions. For example medical staff will be tested if they feel symptoms.
Otherwise healthy people should not go to hospital if they feel symptoms. For most people it's just a flu.
All events with more than 500 people are forbidden.
Otherwise healthy people should not go to hospital if they feel symptoms. For most people it's just a flu.
All events with more than 500 people are forbidden.
In order to determine who to test, you need to base it on what your actions will be with a positive or negative result.
If someone is showing mild Corona virus symptoms and can safely quarantine themselves, then there isn't a lot of value in testing. The result isn't going to change what you do.
Where it's useful is controlling transmission. When you identify a patient, find out who they came in contact with and confirm whether or not they have it.
If someone is showing mild Corona virus symptoms and can safely quarantine themselves, then there isn't a lot of value in testing. The result isn't going to change what you do.
Where it's useful is controlling transmission. When you identify a patient, find out who they came in contact with and confirm whether or not they have it.
Your point is taken, but positive tests imply future immunity (based on what we currently know, for those who survive...) and that may become valuable information. For instance interactions with nursing homes, seniors' facilities, most of southwest Florida, etc., could be limited to people who had tested positive and recovered.
'Controlling transmission' is only useful before it becomes 'community-spread'. I'm unconvinced the testing is any more useful than stats in a future wiki article. At the end of the day, folks needing hospitalization/respiratory support will exist in spite of any given test result.
Sweden did pretty well to scale from zero to ten test labs in just a couple of weeks though.
I read thats more labs than can do the same in the US.
I read thats more labs than can do the same in the US.
Same in the UK. You won't be tested any longer if you show symptoms. I called NHS 111 yesterday because my son has high fever and a cough. 2 hour wait time to speak to someone on the phone, which gives an indication of how many people are calling in with symptoms.
They said the symptoms sound like coronavirus, but it's not being tested anymore (it was still being tested at drive-throughs 2 days ago) as the government has moved from "contain" phase to "delay" phase - advised to stay at home for 7 days and call back if it gets worse.
I asked if his brother can continue going to school, given he is probably exposed - the advise was yes, as long as he isn't showing any symptoms.
They have given up trying to contain this and it's difficult to see how you can trust reported case numbers going forward since testing has stopped.
They said the symptoms sound like coronavirus, but it's not being tested anymore (it was still being tested at drive-throughs 2 days ago) as the government has moved from "contain" phase to "delay" phase - advised to stay at home for 7 days and call back if it gets worse.
I asked if his brother can continue going to school, given he is probably exposed - the advise was yes, as long as he isn't showing any symptoms.
They have given up trying to contain this and it's difficult to see how you can trust reported case numbers going forward since testing has stopped.
I don't have the link but I read Seegene is providing about 80% of the coronavirus test kits used in Korea currently.
1. CNN article (March 12, 2020) on Seegene https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-...
The CNN text article is actually pretty good article and also the video is good. The company reports they used AI to speed up the development. They were able to accomplish it in 2 - 3 weeks with a few people instead of 2 - 3 months with many more staffers getting involved.
From the CNN article
The firm is making about 10,000 kits a week and each kit can test 100 patients. So it is making enough to test one million patients each week, at a cost of under $20 per test.
Seegene is now looking to export of the excess capacity to 30 countries including Germany and Italy.
2. Below is 2017 video of a mini-seminar of Seegene's solution platform at a trade show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKL5D19r6t8
The last part shows that they have a software solution for helping faster diagnosis.
As a layman, I felt Seegene's product focus is on getting as many tests done as possible by using following: - One test vial can test multiple issues - Integrating barcode/software to allow faster diagnosis
3. I frankly don't understand why FDA can't approve Seegene's product into US. It's not like people will be injected with liquid/medicine.
1. CNN article (March 12, 2020) on Seegene https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-...
The CNN text article is actually pretty good article and also the video is good. The company reports they used AI to speed up the development. They were able to accomplish it in 2 - 3 weeks with a few people instead of 2 - 3 months with many more staffers getting involved.
From the CNN article
The firm is making about 10,000 kits a week and each kit can test 100 patients. So it is making enough to test one million patients each week, at a cost of under $20 per test.
Seegene is now looking to export of the excess capacity to 30 countries including Germany and Italy.
2. Below is 2017 video of a mini-seminar of Seegene's solution platform at a trade show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKL5D19r6t8
The last part shows that they have a software solution for helping faster diagnosis.
As a layman, I felt Seegene's product focus is on getting as many tests done as possible by using following: - One test vial can test multiple issues - Integrating barcode/software to allow faster diagnosis
3. I frankly don't understand why FDA can't approve Seegene's product into US. It's not like people will be injected with liquid/medicine.
For #3, it’s because the contract for making the official test for the US is going to be awarded to a friend of someone in the committee, and they have to wait for said friend to have tests ready.
This is striking:
"A nation of 51 million, South Korea has tested about 250,000 people since its outbreak began on Jan. 20, with a daily capacity of 15,000. It has conducted 3,600 tests per million people compared to five per million in the U.S."
It was announced that Idaho could test 800 to 1000 people. Not a day, total. The state has a population of 1.8 million people. It is the only state with no confirmed cases besides West Virginia, as of this morning.
> It takes anywhere from hours to days to get test results. A doctor with a patient in Boise could have results in a matter of hours, because of proximity to the state laboratory. But samples that go to private labs in Utah and Washington take longer, due to shipping time and the hours it takes to run the tests.
https://www.idahostatesman.com/living/health-fitness/article...
> It takes anywhere from hours to days to get test results. A doctor with a patient in Boise could have results in a matter of hours, because of proximity to the state laboratory. But samples that go to private labs in Utah and Washington take longer, due to shipping time and the hours it takes to run the tests.
https://www.idahostatesman.com/living/health-fitness/article...
Meanwhile in Oklahoma:
> The coronavirus tests run on the Utah Jazz’s players and team employees came from a good portion of the state of Oklahoma’s supply.
> The 50-plus tests that were run on the Jazz’s traveling party after Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19 were from the state and not a private lab. And the number of tests run on Jazz players represents over half of the state’s daily peak capacity testing levels.
> “We have the capacity to run about 100 tests a day and we have a number of test kits,” Oklahoma commissioner of health Gary Cox said at a Thursday news conference. “We're ordering additional reagents at the time. So, we have the current capacity I think for about 300 tests.” Oklahoma has had three positive cases of the virus so far with four still pending. Thirty-six tests have returned negative.
> The coronavirus tests run on the Utah Jazz’s players and team employees came from a good portion of the state of Oklahoma’s supply.
> The 50-plus tests that were run on the Jazz’s traveling party after Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19 were from the state and not a private lab. And the number of tests run on Jazz players represents over half of the state’s daily peak capacity testing levels.
> “We have the capacity to run about 100 tests a day and we have a number of test kits,” Oklahoma commissioner of health Gary Cox said at a Thursday news conference. “We're ordering additional reagents at the time. So, we have the current capacity I think for about 300 tests.” Oklahoma has had three positive cases of the virus so far with four still pending. Thirty-six tests have returned negative.
State and municipal governments have invested heavily in professional sports teams with payback coming only via economic activity from their games being played. From the state's point of view, they're protecting their investment and trying to get it generating revenue again. Of course these "investments" in sports teams by state and local governments are about as logical as investing in lottery scratch off tickets but politicians love getting their governments entangled with the finances of the local pro sports team and being able to boast to sports loving voters that they're the reason why the town has a team.
The credit here doesn't go to South Korea's government but to a company called Seegene and it's CEO Chun Jong-yoon who directed the company to focus on COVID-19 testing on January 16th. They are the reason South Korea's CDC was able to ramp up 118 labs so quickly. It's making about 10,000 test kits a week and has been at the center of South Korea's testing strategy.
The market is better at addressing problems than government and if the FDA and CDC hadn't gotten in the way in the US, our testing response would have been far better.
Seegene's kits test for all three marker genes and aren't even available in the US because it doesn't yet have FDA approval. At least 30 other countries are placing orders for Seegene's kits.
The market is better at addressing problems than government and if the FDA and CDC hadn't gotten in the way in the US, our testing response would have been far better.
Seegene's kits test for all three marker genes and aren't even available in the US because it doesn't yet have FDA approval. At least 30 other countries are placing orders for Seegene's kits.
it wasn't "the market" that solved this problem. it was the employees, including the ceo, at that company who felt a duty to the rest of the country, not to some market opportunity, that effected the result.
bureaucracies, including corporate ones (see: innovator's dilemma), are typically not nimble enough to respond to rapidly changing circumstances. it's not a market vs government (false) dichotomy.
bureaucracies, including corporate ones (see: innovator's dilemma), are typically not nimble enough to respond to rapidly changing circumstances. it's not a market vs government (false) dichotomy.
If you ban private companies from making tests, then people like that CEO are blocked from trying.
The market is just shorthand for people.
The market is just shorthand for people.
I mean, the CEO and the employees are literally part of the free market.
Sure, but he’s saying it wasn’t market forces that motivated them but their sense of civic duty.
That is something that “the market” often lacks in their relentless pursuit of shareholder value.
That is something that “the market” often lacks in their relentless pursuit of shareholder value.
The market might often lack it, but isn't that simply an untapped resource? After the crisis is done the company can go on claiming how much they did to help far and wide. It's hard to find a better advertisement, especially since it's the company itself that's helping and not just some endorsement from elsewhere.
> That is something that “the market” often lacks in their relentless pursuit of shareholder value.
This is nuts. The market doesn't pursue shareholder value. Corporations do. However, the market, which consists of consumers and small producers as much as corporations, certainly does not always, as is seen in consumers (and frankly corporations as well) oftentimes irrational behavior.
This is nuts. The market doesn't pursue shareholder value. Corporations do. However, the market, which consists of consumers and small producers as much as corporations, certainly does not always, as is seen in consumers (and frankly corporations as well) oftentimes irrational behavior.
I concur that my statement is not entirely accurate, but if we apply the same nuance to the general sentiment I was replying to, surely we will conclude that we should absolutely not rely upon “the market” to prepare for and carry out disaster response.
Are you saying the CEO didn't consider, at all, the business implications of focusing on producing the tests?
On what fact is he basing it on civic duty? There's literally nothing to support that. They started work on the tests before the disease even arrived in South Korea. It was the CEO reacting to perceived likelihood of future demand for such kits.
So is the wild animal trade that introduced the virus?
I mean if something is just shorthand for "things people do", it gets credit and blame for a lot of things...
It's better defined as things people do freely, and out of self interest (that's flawed too, but it's better).
And yep, that trade is "market" too. And it does get blamed for a lot of things, some of them unwarranted.
And yep, that trade is "market" too. And it does get blamed for a lot of things, some of them unwarranted.
Depending on what you mean by "self interest", it sounds like market forces are why people fall in love, nurture their children, volunteer at the hospice, listen to stories around the campfire, say their prayers at night, and brush their teeth before bed...
I suspect that the CEO and the companies employees gave two shits about your precious free market when they decided to implement a crash program to develop tests.
> it was the employees, including the ceo, at that company
that is the market doing its thing.
The CEO made that decision 4 days before South Korea had its first case.
that is the market doing its thing.
The CEO made that decision 4 days before South Korea had its first case.
South Korean here. I must point out that there are four companies in South Korea with Emergency Use Authorization for COVID-19 testing and Seegene is not the only supplier, or even the first supplier (the first is Kogene). Four companies, in order of authorization, are Kogene, Seegene, Solgent, and SD Biosensor.
Huh, I'm sure the FDA/CDC doesn't ban biotech companies from researching testing kits? You only need FDA approval if you're going to make it available to the general public.
SK is really lucky that they have that company who was focused on testing kits and even uses machine learning to quickly identify viruses. Why doesn't the US have such a company? Is it regulations? Surely not, when something like Theranos was allowed.
SK is really lucky that they have that company who was focused on testing kits and even uses machine learning to quickly identify viruses. Why doesn't the US have such a company? Is it regulations? Surely not, when something like Theranos was allowed.
Healthcare is notoriously difficult to “disrupt” due to regulations and how the medical system is set up. I once worked for a healthcare startup and we joked that 1) your customer does not pay you and does not respond to price 2) your customer does not even choose the product and does not respond to product quality 3) you cannot even refine your product freely without getting someone’s approval on every change, for a fee. I understand everyone is happy about the downfall and disgrace of Theranos and rightly so, but I am a bit sad when the general consensus is to take all these regulations as self-evident because “you cannot play with people’s life”. There are definitely areas in healthcare that can have less stringent and rigid requirements, and today we can see that certain diagnostics is a good candidate. Expanding right-to-try [1] would be a step forward too.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-to-try_law
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-to-try_law
If the market was good at addressing problems, our shelves wouldn't be empty of masks and hand sanitizer for the last SEVERAL weeks. Trump had to ask 3M to make more asks.
There's plenty of demand. Where's the supply? Market failure.
There's plenty of demand. Where's the supply? Market failure.
Will Korea sell us tests?
Will anyone? Has this been discussed anywhere?
Will anyone? Has this been discussed anywhere?
Probably they would. WHO could also provide the USA with tests. We could do more testing domestically. Not only could we open up more testing now, but we could have opened it up weeks ago. We've chosen not to do this. Yes, it is utterly insane.
The machines for this test are not approved in the US. Secondly even if that was waived, there it the issue of getting the machines here, setting them up and training people in the lab. And the reality is a huge number of countries also want these tests.
I've read however that FDA just approved a new test on Roche lab equipment which many labs already have.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/scott-gottlieb-us-to-conduct...
I've read however that FDA just approved a new test on Roche lab equipment which many labs already have.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/scott-gottlieb-us-to-conduct...
I used to think this, but it is not true. Surprising, I know.
Here is FDA authorization for CDC test: https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download. The required machine is Applied Biosystems 7500, and CDC targeted it because it is approved, widely available, trained on, etc. in USA.
Here is product information page from one of South Korean test suppliers: http://www.solgent.com/english/sub03020102/view/id/45. It is compatible with Bio-Rad CFX96 and Applied Biosystems 7500, and was approved as such in South Korea. While Bio-Rad's machine is more popular in South Korea, they obviously thought of exporting.
Here is FDA authorization for CDC test: https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download. The required machine is Applied Biosystems 7500, and CDC targeted it because it is approved, widely available, trained on, etc. in USA.
Here is product information page from one of South Korean test suppliers: http://www.solgent.com/english/sub03020102/view/id/45. It is compatible with Bio-Rad CFX96 and Applied Biosystems 7500, and was approved as such in South Korea. While Bio-Rad's machine is more popular in South Korea, they obviously thought of exporting.
Jack Ma, the head of Alibaba, is donating 500,000 test kits to the US.
Hopefully ones that work. Here's what you can buy on Alibaba.[1] Some of those are probably totally bogus.
[1] https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product...
Hopefully ones that work. Here's what you can buy on Alibaba.[1] Some of those are probably totally bogus.
[1] https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product...
CNN article (March 12, 2020) on Seegene
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-...
Seegene is in talks to export of the excess test kits to 30 countries including Germany and Italy.
No mention of US.
Seegene is in talks to export of the excess test kits to 30 countries including Germany and Italy.
No mention of US.
Jack Ma just donated a bunch.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fhvvzl/chinas_...
And as the situation in the US worsens to a certain point, I'm sure China would officially send supplies too like it's currently doing with Italy and Iran. Question is whether Trump will accept that.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fhvvzl/chinas_...
And as the situation in the US worsens to a certain point, I'm sure China would officially send supplies too like it's currently doing with Italy and Iran. Question is whether Trump will accept that.
They can't. Not FDA approved.
The administration turned away from the German designed/WHO standard tests everyone else is using, so I don’t think any international ones are FDA approved.
Today’s presser sure gave me the impression that the delay in testing was so they could roll out this nebulous private-public partnership drive through testing and I guess boost CVS’ stock price or something.
Today’s presser sure gave me the impression that the delay in testing was so they could roll out this nebulous private-public partnership drive through testing and I guess boost CVS’ stock price or something.
> they could roll out this nebulous private-public partnership drive through testing
Realistically, how would you envision tests on this scale being performed? In theory, it’s a great plan. Pretty much everyone in the US is close to a Walmart/CVS/Target. Drive up, get swabbed, check results online. Fast and minimal human interaction. The implementation remains to be seen but I can’t imagine the alternative of having everyone rush doctor’s offices and hospitals working very well.
Realistically, how would you envision tests on this scale being performed? In theory, it’s a great plan. Pretty much everyone in the US is close to a Walmart/CVS/Target. Drive up, get swabbed, check results online. Fast and minimal human interaction. The implementation remains to be seen but I can’t imagine the alternative of having everyone rush doctor’s offices and hospitals working very well.
How they’re being performed in South Korea or any other country that’s doing tests at scale? American exceptionalism falls apart when countries around the world are outperforming your response.
According to the record by Mark Green from Tennessee, the test that South Korea is using was denied because of inadequacy by the FDA in the USA, and that test will not even be used for emergency purposes.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277-1/federal-health-offici...
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277-1/federal-health-offici...
ArtDev(2)
The questions to ask for any test:
- What is the false positive rate?
- What is the false negative rate?
- Considering the above, what is the efficacy of mass testing?
(Not saying it is or isn't effective, hard numbers are necessary)
- What is the false positive rate?
- What is the false negative rate?
- Considering the above, what is the efficacy of mass testing?
(Not saying it is or isn't effective, hard numbers are necessary)
There is already studies on that coming out of Wuhan and it's not looking good. Here are some highlights from my own research. Note that RT-PCR is what the CDC recommends and what most nations are using for testing COVID-19:
> the total positive rate of RT-PCR for throat swab samples was reported to be about 30% to 60% at initial presentation [1]
> In patients with negative RT-PCR results, 75% (308/413) had positive chest CT findings; of 308, 48% were considered as highly likely cases, with 33% as probable cases [2]
> For patients with negative RT-PCR tests, more than 70% had typical CT manifestations. On the one hand, due to the overlap of CT imaging features between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia, false-positive cases of COVID-19 can be identified on chest CT. Nevertheless, considering the rapidly spreading epidemic of COVID-19, the priority was to identify any suspicious CT case in order to isolate the patients and administer appropriate treatment [3]
> Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives [4]
[1][2][3]: https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.2020200642
[4]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832
> the total positive rate of RT-PCR for throat swab samples was reported to be about 30% to 60% at initial presentation [1]
> In patients with negative RT-PCR results, 75% (308/413) had positive chest CT findings; of 308, 48% were considered as highly likely cases, with 33% as probable cases [2]
> For patients with negative RT-PCR tests, more than 70% had typical CT manifestations. On the one hand, due to the overlap of CT imaging features between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia, false-positive cases of COVID-19 can be identified on chest CT. Nevertheless, considering the rapidly spreading epidemic of COVID-19, the priority was to identify any suspicious CT case in order to isolate the patients and administer appropriate treatment [3]
> Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives [4]
[1][2][3]: https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.2020200642
[4]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832
Yup I have been wondering about this too. If my community has 10 beds and 2 docs what is anyone supposed to do if there are 100 positives?
Other weird thought I had was how does security deal with some lunatic who gets tested positive and runs around infecting others...just walks into some critical hub like a hospital and pat's everyone on the back.
Other weird thought I had was how does security deal with some lunatic who gets tested positive and runs around infecting others...just walks into some critical hub like a hospital and pat's everyone on the back.
> Yup I have been wondering about this too. If my community has 10 beds and 2 docs what is anyone supposed to do if there are 100 positives?
Pick the 10 most likely to develop complications due to age or comorbidity and quarantine the rest so that you don’t get 200 more next week. We’re still in the “stop the bleeding” phase of treatment.
Pick the 10 most likely to develop complications due to age or comorbidity and quarantine the rest so that you don’t get 200 more next week. We’re still in the “stop the bleeding” phase of treatment.
Triage usually dictates that the ones most likely to die from the illness, especially if they're old, get lower priority than those that can be treated at a greater success rate, and who are more likely to live longer and healthier as a result.
This is the procedure at most hospitals. You give the beds to those who need them, and are most likely to "make good use" of them (= not "waste" them by likely dying anyway; sorry for the atrocious wording)
This is the procedure at most hospitals. You give the beds to those who need them, and are most likely to "make good use" of them (= not "waste" them by likely dying anyway; sorry for the atrocious wording)
Sure; the idea is that testing allows officials to make decisions about how best to use the resource you have, both in terms of hospital beds and quarantine.
> If my community has 10 beds and 2 docs what is anyone supposed to do if there are 100 positives?
Isolate those 100 people. Then use whatever methodology[1] your society uses to allocated hospital beds to the ones that will get sick enough to need them.
Just because you test positive doesn't mean you'll need a hospital bed.
Oh, and while you're at it, ban public gatherings, and close schools. Because if 100 people tested positive, there's probably another 200-300 people walking around, infecting others.
[1] First-come-first-serve, youngest-and-healthiest-first, whomever-can-pay-more are the most popular methodologies for this.
Isolate those 100 people. Then use whatever methodology[1] your society uses to allocated hospital beds to the ones that will get sick enough to need them.
Just because you test positive doesn't mean you'll need a hospital bed.
Oh, and while you're at it, ban public gatherings, and close schools. Because if 100 people tested positive, there's probably another 200-300 people walking around, infecting others.
[1] First-come-first-serve, youngest-and-healthiest-first, whomever-can-pay-more are the most popular methodologies for this.
>lunatic who gets tested positive and runs around infecting others
It's happened. Criminal charges for assault probably work.
It's happened. Criminal charges for assault probably work.
At the very least you can isolate those 100 people and their contacts instead of isolating the whole freaking county. Lockdowns work but there is a huge burden to the economy.
Under the circumstances, a test better than totally useless is good enough. Unless there is an alternative immediately available. Which there isn’t.
I wonder if Walmart completely thought out what is going to happen when they turn their parking lots into drive-up testing, implying that every sick person with a fever is going to be in a Walmart parking lot soon.
With exponential growth of the disease, lack of testing, and poor healthcare infrastructure in the US, that would’ve happened anyway when people needed groceries. I guess they decided they might as well cash in on some testing stations.
Are they cashing in somehow? Or do you mean cashing in in the sense that they have a massive, existential financial interest in this going away as quickly as possible?
Details of the arrangement aren’t clear. They’re stock shot up about ten points after the announcement though.
The stock market as a whole was up 10%.
You go in after hours when the risk of contact is minimal.
You really think they are going to bother to be open beyond 9-5 and maybe not even weekends?
Also with the air-conditioner on exhaust and the people taking swaps without protective gear, or even with, moving the virus from car to car so efficiently.
Look at this crazy photo: first guy is leaning into the car with facemask down. Totally going to happen at half the Walmarts.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/12/upshot/12up-healt...
Also with the air-conditioner on exhaust and the people taking swaps without protective gear, or even with, moving the virus from car to car so efficiently.
Look at this crazy photo: first guy is leaning into the car with facemask down. Totally going to happen at half the Walmarts.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/12/upshot/12up-healt...
How this is done here in Czech Republic is by placing a medical tent or a mobile office container on the grounds near the given hospital handling the testing.
Then people who are to be tested and are in quarantine at home (mostly after visiting affected areas in Italy and elsewhere or by being traced to someone infected) make appointments over phone, then arrive by private car at the designated time.
They will actually not set foot in the tent, instead a swab sample is taken by a medic in full hazmat suit. The tent houses the medic & sample handling equipment.
The people who have been tested then return to quarantine at home and wait for the results.
This is also compounded by a dedicated ambulance with team in full protective gear that takes samples from people at home.
Then people who are to be tested and are in quarantine at home (mostly after visiting affected areas in Italy and elsewhere or by being traced to someone infected) make appointments over phone, then arrive by private car at the designated time.
They will actually not set foot in the tent, instead a swab sample is taken by a medic in full hazmat suit. The tent houses the medic & sample handling equipment.
The people who have been tested then return to quarantine at home and wait for the results.
This is also compounded by a dedicated ambulance with team in full protective gear that takes samples from people at home.
[deleted]
Korea gear approach:
https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2020/03/13/gettyimages-1205...
Europe (and likely USA)
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/12/upshot/12up-healt...
Leaning into the car with facemask down. Should end well.
https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2020/03/13/gettyimages-1205...
Europe (and likely USA)
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/12/upshot/12up-healt...
Leaning into the car with facemask down. Should end well.
I just finished listening to a veteran virologist give a 2 hour interview. It’s being blown way out of proportion. Nobody under the age of 9 has died, period. Under the age of 30 your mortality probability is vanishingly small. It’s only a threat to people who have a compromised immune system because of age, diabetes or something like that. This is nothing like the Spanish flu. Unlike influenza viruses, these viruses don’t mutate in a way that would cause their recurrence every year. The chances of a more deadly strain popping up are extremely small.
I listened to trump address the nation in the rose garden live today. The npr correspondent confidently said that this virus “isn’t going away.” It’s a flat out lie and hysteria.
I listened to trump address the nation in the rose garden live today. The npr correspondent confidently said that this virus “isn’t going away.” It’s a flat out lie and hysteria.
Would love to see your sources. I’m shocked there are still people like you claiming this is all an overreaction while the smart folk are all bracing for impact.
You gotta get it together man, this is bigger than anything you’ve ever seen in your life. If we’re very lucky it’ll be bad in the coming weeks and months, if we’re not it’ll be much much worse.
You gotta get it together man, this is bigger than anything you’ve ever seen in your life. If we’re very lucky it’ll be bad in the coming weeks and months, if we’re not it’ll be much much worse.
I would love to see a source that contradicts what I said. My source is the testimony of a virologist with 40 years of experience and other qualified people. I’m sorry to be blunt but there simply isn’t anything to brace for. The worst case scenario is that a very small number of people die before herd immunity slows the spread to nothing, after which the virus will basically disappear probably before we even have a vaccine for it. That’s what happened with Zika and some others. That’s what’s going to happen here. The number of people who die will be similar to deaths from the flu, car accidents and other things. Can you offer a single substantive counter argument to anything I’ve said? I will enjoy reading it.
" I’m sorry to be blunt but there simply isn’t anything to brace for."
This is appallingly wrong.
If you're commenting here on HN and referring to legit medical sources, then you're also smart enough to see what has happened in Wuhan and Italy where hospitals are completely overwhelmed, where triaging is leaving many people without any care. Over 65? Comorbidities? Sorry, 'just die' or hopefully not, is the medical response because they are overwhelmed.
That under 30 are less likely to die is irrelevant when most of the population is >50 and the rate of spread, the severity of cases is such that health services are completely overwhelmed.
Hospitals around the world are facing 'Denial of Service' attacks and everything is crumbling.
The way to make this survivable is to control the spread of the disease so as to make care available and give enough time for rapid trials etc..
"The worst case scenario is that a very small number of people die before herd immunity slows the spread to nothing"
No! The 'worst-case scenario' is 10's of millions of infected, (possibly over 100 million in the US), 1000-to-1 infected to ventilator ratio, total and complete overwhelming of US medical services, several million dead, 10's of millions out of work and isolated for many weeks, unable to work, contribute, teach, provide medical services, run the 'toilet paper factory', etc..
Literally the worst disaster in US history - worse than WW2 or the Civil War (~2% death rate) in terms of domestic turbulence.
Now - add in how many people are going to die from 'regular things' because the healthcare system is null.
This is appallingly wrong.
If you're commenting here on HN and referring to legit medical sources, then you're also smart enough to see what has happened in Wuhan and Italy where hospitals are completely overwhelmed, where triaging is leaving many people without any care. Over 65? Comorbidities? Sorry, 'just die' or hopefully not, is the medical response because they are overwhelmed.
That under 30 are less likely to die is irrelevant when most of the population is >50 and the rate of spread, the severity of cases is such that health services are completely overwhelmed.
Hospitals around the world are facing 'Denial of Service' attacks and everything is crumbling.
The way to make this survivable is to control the spread of the disease so as to make care available and give enough time for rapid trials etc..
"The worst case scenario is that a very small number of people die before herd immunity slows the spread to nothing"
No! The 'worst-case scenario' is 10's of millions of infected, (possibly over 100 million in the US), 1000-to-1 infected to ventilator ratio, total and complete overwhelming of US medical services, several million dead, 10's of millions out of work and isolated for many weeks, unable to work, contribute, teach, provide medical services, run the 'toilet paper factory', etc..
Literally the worst disaster in US history - worse than WW2 or the Civil War (~2% death rate) in terms of domestic turbulence.
Now - add in how many people are going to die from 'regular things' because the healthcare system is null.
Appalling. That’s so funny. The morbidity rate is far less than 3%. Most people who get it probably don’t even realize they have it which makes the numbers look worse than they are. Look I’m not saying nothing should be done. If nothing were done the. We might see something that vaguely resembles what you are describing. If people wouldn’t panic and if antibiotics were prescribed remotely and if people did a few basic things like wash their hands and stay at home if they have a preexisting medical condition, then basically nothing would happen. The only one we don’t have is a lack of panic. People are trying to see their doctors and get tests while they have no symptoms. I’m sorry man but you’re wrong this time.
>>> "We might see something that vaguely resembles what you are describing."
No, there's a 100% chance we will see it if we don't take measures. Watch the news from Wuhan, Italy - it's apoplectic. It's really bad, and if they didn't shut everything down, it would be a zombie movie.
We know that 'shutting things down' works because in China, the virus is contained, at least for now and medical facilities are starting to be able to cope.
>>> "The morbidity rate is far less than 3%"
Source? Because every credible source and the data coming out of various countries puts the rate at somewhere near 3%, not 'far less than' 3%. Some facts [1]
Even a 1.5% death rate is existentially problematic, we're still talking millions of people dead.
Moreover, if you bother to look at the data, you'll see that morbidity rates are a function of access to care, meaning that when Hospitals are 'overwhelmed' - people die at much greater rates. In Italy, it's 5%.
But there's a bigger issue: 20% of people who get it requires specific medical intervention, and at least 5% of them 'intensive care'. COVID is totally overwhelming medical the medical system in 100% of the areas wherein the contagion has let loose; people getting zero treatment, medical staff getting infected, people dying in the hallways, in their homes.
FYI 20% of 330M Americans is 66M people, only a fraction of whom need to be infected for 'zombie apocalypse' in the Hospitals, again: see Italy, Wuhan for what will happen.
>>> Antibiotics?? Antibiotics are not part of this equation.
>>> "and if people did a few basic things like wash their hands and stay at home if they have a preexisting medical condition, then basically nothing would happen. "
No - absolutely not. Having a few people 'wash their hands' and having the elderly 'stay home' will do very little to quash the pandemic.
The evidence from other countries is writ large, the variables are established: extensive testing, restricted travel, social distancing, isolation for any sick person, aggressive operational preparation by medical staff, keeping social order, restriction on large scale events etc. etc..
This is the 'new normal' for at least a few months.
[1] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...
No, there's a 100% chance we will see it if we don't take measures. Watch the news from Wuhan, Italy - it's apoplectic. It's really bad, and if they didn't shut everything down, it would be a zombie movie.
We know that 'shutting things down' works because in China, the virus is contained, at least for now and medical facilities are starting to be able to cope.
>>> "The morbidity rate is far less than 3%"
Source? Because every credible source and the data coming out of various countries puts the rate at somewhere near 3%, not 'far less than' 3%. Some facts [1]
Even a 1.5% death rate is existentially problematic, we're still talking millions of people dead.
Moreover, if you bother to look at the data, you'll see that morbidity rates are a function of access to care, meaning that when Hospitals are 'overwhelmed' - people die at much greater rates. In Italy, it's 5%.
But there's a bigger issue: 20% of people who get it requires specific medical intervention, and at least 5% of them 'intensive care'. COVID is totally overwhelming medical the medical system in 100% of the areas wherein the contagion has let loose; people getting zero treatment, medical staff getting infected, people dying in the hallways, in their homes.
FYI 20% of 330M Americans is 66M people, only a fraction of whom need to be infected for 'zombie apocalypse' in the Hospitals, again: see Italy, Wuhan for what will happen.
>>> Antibiotics?? Antibiotics are not part of this equation.
>>> "and if people did a few basic things like wash their hands and stay at home if they have a preexisting medical condition, then basically nothing would happen. "
No - absolutely not. Having a few people 'wash their hands' and having the elderly 'stay home' will do very little to quash the pandemic.
The evidence from other countries is writ large, the variables are established: extensive testing, restricted travel, social distancing, isolation for any sick person, aggressive operational preparation by medical staff, keeping social order, restriction on large scale events etc. etc..
This is the 'new normal' for at least a few months.
[1] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...
ggffryuuj(1)
Antibiotics don't work for viruses!
because the hospitals could become overloaded, that means a lot more people with other medical problems would be getting triaged than just coronavirus. not only that but this exponential curve can be blunted saving thousands of lives, including your own elderly acquaintances.
It'd be super great if you'd cite your source. Like... a name? A link?
https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM
And even though this guy destroys all of your panic driven assumptions and ideas, you probably won’t upvote me will you?
And even though this guy destroys all of your panic driven assumptions and ideas, you probably won’t upvote me will you?
> Unlike influenza viruses, these viruses don’t mutate in a way that would cause their recurrence every year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_229E
Both of these viruses do exactly that. They're among the many that give us colds.
"Coronaviruses have a worldwide distribution, causing 10–15% of common cold cases. Infections show a seasonal pattern with most cases occurring in the winter months."
Consider the possibility that your source is full of it. It happens to the best: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Nobel_disease
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_229E
Both of these viruses do exactly that. They're among the many that give us colds.
"Coronaviruses have a worldwide distribution, causing 10–15% of common cold cases. Infections show a seasonal pattern with most cases occurring in the winter months."
Consider the possibility that your source is full of it. It happens to the best: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Nobel_disease
ggffryuuj(1)
I would love to see you link/source.
I have watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=2357s with Michael Osterholm as guest. This is not a flat out lie.
I have watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=2357s with Michael Osterholm as guest. This is not a flat out lie.
I saw that too. He isn’t a virologist and also is hawking his book. And he’s not very articulate or dispassionate. And he still hasn’t contradicted me in any way. Not unambiguously.
“You who have symptoms similar to coronavirus will not be tested in the future. This applies regardless of whether you have been in the areas that were previously exposed to infection or had close contact with someone you know is ill in covid-19.”
There are no test kits. Hospitals have run out of face masks. And it’s only just getting started here.