Airbnb Pulled Back from the Brink(wsj.com)
wsj.com
Airbnb Pulled Back from the Brink
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-airbnb-pulled-back-from-the-brink-11602520846
46 comments
Shouldn’t Airbnb be in a pre-IPO quiet period now?
While this may be pre-IPO fluff to lift mindshare for Airbnb, the subtitle for the article:
Focus on the core business, keep expenses low and listen to customers
is true for ALL businesses, not just hot new Silicon Valley "startups".
Focus on the core business, keep expenses low and listen to customers
is true for ALL businesses, not just hot new Silicon Valley "startups".
This is PR nonsense to help promote Airbnb's IPO plan, a plan exclusively launched to cash out before the buzzer sounds. Understandably AirBnb wants to create a story of how they brilliantly pulled the plane up at the last minute, and despite laying of 25% of the company, are still healthy and fine.
These temporary boosts in one small sector are just blips that mask the fact that the leisure travel industry is in major, major trouble.
There was a temporary boom in younger people looking to get out of cities and find some space this summer, but as more and more people lose jobs, or have jobs that are threatened there is going to be a smaller and smaller group of people willing to pay much less for travel.
On top of this I'm still very bearish on leisure air travel. There have been numerous articles on HN about the two major drivers of airline revenue: credit card miles and corporate travel. Corporate travel will never return to pre-covid levels, and credit card miles are a big part of this as well.
Airlines are already starting to have major layoffs (when I mentioned this months ago the comments were that this wouldn't happen, but here we are). Airlines seriously expected government bailout, but it didn't happen and so furloughs, which will become layoffs did.
This will mean that air travel will return to a luxury good, which will make leisure travel a luxury experience. Likewise, gen-z workers are realizing that the economy is not always good times and full speed ahead. The idea of booking a last minute beach trip with a bunch of friends will quickly seem like a luxury of another age.
We still haven't seen the consequences of this pandemic and our fragile startup ecosystem start to unfold.
These temporary boosts in one small sector are just blips that mask the fact that the leisure travel industry is in major, major trouble.
There was a temporary boom in younger people looking to get out of cities and find some space this summer, but as more and more people lose jobs, or have jobs that are threatened there is going to be a smaller and smaller group of people willing to pay much less for travel.
On top of this I'm still very bearish on leisure air travel. There have been numerous articles on HN about the two major drivers of airline revenue: credit card miles and corporate travel. Corporate travel will never return to pre-covid levels, and credit card miles are a big part of this as well.
Airlines are already starting to have major layoffs (when I mentioned this months ago the comments were that this wouldn't happen, but here we are). Airlines seriously expected government bailout, but it didn't happen and so furloughs, which will become layoffs did.
This will mean that air travel will return to a luxury good, which will make leisure travel a luxury experience. Likewise, gen-z workers are realizing that the economy is not always good times and full speed ahead. The idea of booking a last minute beach trip with a bunch of friends will quickly seem like a luxury of another age.
We still haven't seen the consequences of this pandemic and our fragile startup ecosystem start to unfold.
I have full-time vacation rentals in Hawaii on Airbnb and Vrbo which have been vacant since March. The past couple weeks we have finally started to get inquiries and bookings, with our first guests back arriving in the beginning of November. We've had very few cancellations for our 2021 dates, but we also haven't had our normal stream of bookings for 2021–more of a pause of 2021 activity.
We believe there will be pent-up demand for vacations in 2021 after travel restrictions relax (Maui has had mandatory 14 quarantines in place which end this week). People will have more unused vacation time than normal and quarantine fatigue/cabin fever will also increase demand.
I do agree that air travel will be the biggest barrier for us. The non-stops from where we live are gone for now, so the shortest travel time has gone from 5h 30m to an 11h 30m red-eye.
We believe there will be pent-up demand for vacations in 2021 after travel restrictions relax (Maui has had mandatory 14 quarantines in place which end this week). People will have more unused vacation time than normal and quarantine fatigue/cabin fever will also increase demand.
I do agree that air travel will be the biggest barrier for us. The non-stops from where we live are gone for now, so the shortest travel time has gone from 5h 30m to an 11h 30m red-eye.
I've been following the situation in Hawaii too. It seems like it is a different situation from continental travel, since like many island nations, they shut down visitor arrivals and thus airline travel with the 14-day quarantine you mention. You can't do that at Tahoe or Mammoth. It seems like each island has different requirements now, or at least each island wants a stricter 3-day negative retesting protocol.
And the locals were really vigilant, they were reporting any quarantine breakers on Facebook and to local authorities. In some cases, people who refused to cooperate got flown back off the islands.
And from what I read, even though the local economies are decimated by the lack of tourist dollars, a lot of locals are really happy to not be overrun with tourists at their favorite beaches. There is also talk of less tourist numbers, to be made up for with higher value tourists--less budget options. I wonder if things will ever go back to what they were before, because a lot of people didn't like it before.
And the locals were really vigilant, they were reporting any quarantine breakers on Facebook and to local authorities. In some cases, people who refused to cooperate got flown back off the islands.
And from what I read, even though the local economies are decimated by the lack of tourist dollars, a lot of locals are really happy to not be overrun with tourists at their favorite beaches. There is also talk of less tourist numbers, to be made up for with higher value tourists--less budget options. I wonder if things will ever go back to what they were before, because a lot of people didn't like it before.
Yeah, it has been interesting. I'm glad they are staying safe even if it has affected our income substantially. It isn't the islander's fault the U.S. has been unable to contain the virus for so long. I'm not sure about the other islands, but for Maui person over 5 years old coming to the island needs a negative test within 72 hours or they will need to quarantine for 14 days. They tried to implement this the past couple months, but changed back to the 14 day requirement.
Yes, the quarantine orders were very strict. You could not even go pick up a rental car. You needed a private driver hired. You could not go get groceries. We know of people staying at a hotel that opened the door when a service person knocked to change something. The guest told them they were in quarantine and shut the door. The front desk called within a couple minutes to ask why the door had opened.
The locals we've been in contact with have been making the most of it. They have very much enjoyed having the island to themselves. It is (hopefully) a once in a life time opportunity for them.
Yes, the quarantine orders were very strict. You could not even go pick up a rental car. You needed a private driver hired. You could not go get groceries. We know of people staying at a hotel that opened the door when a service person knocked to change something. The guest told them they were in quarantine and shut the door. The front desk called within a couple minutes to ask why the door had opened.
The locals we've been in contact with have been making the most of it. They have very much enjoyed having the island to themselves. It is (hopefully) a once in a life time opportunity for them.
Pent up demand but no money to spend on these vacations. Why would you fly to Hawaii when you don’t know if you can make next months rent?
Do you really think the people who can't make next month's rent substantially overlap with the frequent air travelers?
It's definitely not the case among my peers. If anything, the people who traveled a lot have just been saving a lot of money during covid while they WFH and are unable to spend it as frivolously.
It's definitely not the case among my peers. If anything, the people who traveled a lot have just been saving a lot of money during covid while they WFH and are unable to spend it as frivolously.
I have friends who had great jobs (and would take frequent vacations) but have since been laid off and are now living at home.
Sure my tech friends have done great, but not everybody works in an industry that's conducive to remote work.
Sure my tech friends have done great, but not everybody works in an industry that's conducive to remote work.
Were those people taking vacations in the first place? All the white-collar workers who fly to AirBnBs in better climates are still pulling in a paycheck working from home.
Yes. Their industries were impacted by Covid and are unlikely to recover anytime soon.
> Corporate travel will never return to pre-covid levels, and credit card miles are a big part of this as well.
One example - The last several years, I probably charged in excess of $120k / year on one particular airline card. This year, probably $1000 so far, mainly recurring bills I haven't bothered to switch to another card.
Since cards had become a significant revenue driver for airlines, this is going to have some medium term negative financial consequences as well.
(I'm probably not even in the top 20% of business travelers, either)
One example - The last several years, I probably charged in excess of $120k / year on one particular airline card. This year, probably $1000 so far, mainly recurring bills I haven't bothered to switch to another card.
Since cards had become a significant revenue driver for airlines, this is going to have some medium term negative financial consequences as well.
(I'm probably not even in the top 20% of business travelers, either)
I predict none of those doomsday predictions will come to pass, and everything will be back to pre-covid levels soon enough (maybe 2-5 after the pandemic recedes). In the meantime, the sector is in for a rough ride, yes.
I don't have much more compelling arguments than you have, so time will tell!
I don't have much more compelling arguments than you have, so time will tell!
>maybe 2-5 after the pandemic recedes
Months? Years?
Months? Years?
I read aviation news sources weekly.
Domestic air travel (inside national borders) will have various starts and stops due to corona. The worst-case is if the FAA rules something like jets must be 100% disinfected between flights, which could be $250,000 or more per leg. (That is the case for some drug-resistant TB patient flights.)
But I'd estimate that international airline travel will take a year to start again after a vaccine is globally available, so in the area of 2 more years. I say globally because travellers were found to be skirting travel bans from China to the USA via legs to Africa and Canada.
The international airline industry really doesn't have any corona answers at this time.
A gradual increase in air travel is unavoidable since unpickling airliners will take a considerable amount of time - each jet will take about a calendar week to prepare for inspection, consisting of one man-month of work. If problems are found, then longer.
(Airliners aren't designed to sit for an extended period of time, so there's all kinds of moisture, landing gear/tires and corrosion issues that are possible. Big planes create big problems.)
Besides planes, another issue that will need to be addressed is that pilots need a variety of recurring training and medical certificates, so that would cause a spike in demand that can't be met after a sudden re-opening.
Currently, the FAA has various modified rules and extensions, but those are temporary and the FAA is loathe to allow gaps in airmen standards.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/20...
Source: commercially-rated airplane pilot.
Domestic air travel (inside national borders) will have various starts and stops due to corona. The worst-case is if the FAA rules something like jets must be 100% disinfected between flights, which could be $250,000 or more per leg. (That is the case for some drug-resistant TB patient flights.)
But I'd estimate that international airline travel will take a year to start again after a vaccine is globally available, so in the area of 2 more years. I say globally because travellers were found to be skirting travel bans from China to the USA via legs to Africa and Canada.
The international airline industry really doesn't have any corona answers at this time.
A gradual increase in air travel is unavoidable since unpickling airliners will take a considerable amount of time - each jet will take about a calendar week to prepare for inspection, consisting of one man-month of work. If problems are found, then longer.
(Airliners aren't designed to sit for an extended period of time, so there's all kinds of moisture, landing gear/tires and corrosion issues that are possible. Big planes create big problems.)
Besides planes, another issue that will need to be addressed is that pilots need a variety of recurring training and medical certificates, so that would cause a spike in demand that can't be met after a sudden re-opening.
Currently, the FAA has various modified rules and extensions, but those are temporary and the FAA is loathe to allow gaps in airmen standards.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/20...
Source: commercially-rated airplane pilot.
Sorry, years.
I think you're right about a lot of trends here, especially the funny point about how airlines rewards programs are worth more than the airlines themselves.
However, business travel and leisure travel shouldn't be conflated. I'm much more worried about the hotel industry - which caters to business travelers that will be significantly impaired for much longer post-COVID.
I.e. domestic Airbnb spending was actually up 22% in July YoY, whereas hotels are still getting destroyed.[1]
[1]: https://trends.edison.tech/research/airbnb-hotel-sales-sept-...
However, business travel and leisure travel shouldn't be conflated. I'm much more worried about the hotel industry - which caters to business travelers that will be significantly impaired for much longer post-COVID.
I.e. domestic Airbnb spending was actually up 22% in July YoY, whereas hotels are still getting destroyed.[1]
[1]: https://trends.edison.tech/research/airbnb-hotel-sales-sept-...
I think it actually makes sense that AirBnB might see business picking up in local rentals. With people generally being wary of air travel due to Covid, and the economic pressures to not spend as much, a road trip + an AirBnb do seem like an attractive vacation option: it's far enough from home, and it's more affordable than a hotel.
On the topic of luxury, I'm not sure people appreciate what air travel becoming a luxury really entails. My wife mentioned a few months ago that air travel from North America to China was going for something like $80k per ticket at some point (and this is for economy class!). If we see Covid case numbers increasing again due to the flu season coming up, and if we see subsequent governmental pressures to limit air travel for even more extending periods of time, then the laws of supply and demand might make air travel prohibitively expensive even for relatively well-off people, like FAANG folks.
Perhaps a silver lining is that in such a scenario, maybe places like Bali might get a chance to take a break from tourist ecological destruction.
On the topic of luxury, I'm not sure people appreciate what air travel becoming a luxury really entails. My wife mentioned a few months ago that air travel from North America to China was going for something like $80k per ticket at some point (and this is for economy class!). If we see Covid case numbers increasing again due to the flu season coming up, and if we see subsequent governmental pressures to limit air travel for even more extending periods of time, then the laws of supply and demand might make air travel prohibitively expensive even for relatively well-off people, like FAANG folks.
Perhaps a silver lining is that in such a scenario, maybe places like Bali might get a chance to take a break from tourist ecological destruction.
I don't think international travel will ever become $80k/ticket expensive. Even before widespread air travel, people traveled abroad on ocean liners for far less than that.
The govt will subsidize airfares and go back to regulation before a ticket costs 80k.
Would be great if the government just took over the US airlines - instead of trying to cram as many people as possible into a space let’s go back to all the countries trying to one-up each other with the luxury and opulence of their sovereign airlines.
agreed 100%
AirBnb is looking for bagholders
anyone with half a brain knows now is the absolute worst time to invest in something like AirBnb
On the other hand, if the IPO flops, and prices go down a lot, then it might become a worthwhile risk
AirBnb is looking for bagholders
anyone with half a brain knows now is the absolute worst time to invest in something like AirBnb
On the other hand, if the IPO flops, and prices go down a lot, then it might become a worthwhile risk
Good. Air travel in its current form should be more expensive. It should cost a lot more to fly from coast to coast. Maybe then they could take seats out and make the whole experience for the average person a lot better. Something in between getting stuffed into a tube like cattle, or paying for extremely expensive first class tickets which you may not get anyway even if you can afford them because there's so few available on each flight.
Should only the rich be able to fly? I don't mind being crammed in a metal tube for a few hours if it means I can use the money to splurge on restaurants/activities while I'm there.
Wouldn't count on it. Most people want to fly as cheaply as possible, also after corona. So airliners will keep on maximising seats per plane. Moreover, decreasing seats per plane will increase emission per passenger, so it also makes no sense from an environmental perspective. So it's more likely that you're going to pay more for the same "stuffed into a tube like cattle" experience.
I’m dumbstruck by a more fundamental question — Is it even meaningful for a company to be valued at ~$30B if it cannot guarantee survival & stability? In what sense of reality is this a “unicorn”?
EDIT: Yes, I understand the math of (ensemble-averaged) expected values. My point is that such a calculation (for a high variance distribution) is useless/pointless/stupid/<adjective of choice> (basically a bad model) for anyone for whom their AirBnB investment is more than a small/marginal part of their portfolio. In particular, it’s a dangerously misleading number to anyone who has a large fraction of their personal wealth invested in AirBnB (including employees & founders, or potential retail investors who might invest directly in the company at IPO, rather than through index funds)
Refer the St. Petersburg paradox.
EDIT: Yes, I understand the math of (ensemble-averaged) expected values. My point is that such a calculation (for a high variance distribution) is useless/pointless/stupid/<adjective of choice> (basically a bad model) for anyone for whom their AirBnB investment is more than a small/marginal part of their portfolio. In particular, it’s a dangerously misleading number to anyone who has a large fraction of their personal wealth invested in AirBnB (including employees & founders, or potential retail investors who might invest directly in the company at IPO, rather than through index funds)
Refer the St. Petersburg paradox.
Good Question:
ssivark 2 hours ago [–]
Is it even meaningful for a company to be valued at ~$30B if it cannot guarantee survival & stability? In what sense of reality is this a “unicorn”?
*
Fed is printing infinite money
So $30 billion is not $30 billion
AirBnB offers the potential of high upside
Do you park your 'free, Feb printed money' in the bank, and then at some point its value is less than it started
Or do you park it in AirBnB or another IPO, where it might go to zero, or it might go ten times
Everywhere IPOs are booming. Because money is being printed and there is nowhere for it to go for a good return
Is it even meaningful for a company to be valued at ~$30B if it cannot guarantee survival & stability? In what sense of reality is this a “unicorn”?
*
Fed is printing infinite money
So $30 billion is not $30 billion
AirBnB offers the potential of high upside
Do you park your 'free, Feb printed money' in the bank, and then at some point its value is less than it started
Or do you park it in AirBnB or another IPO, where it might go to zero, or it might go ten times
Everywhere IPOs are booming. Because money is being printed and there is nowhere for it to go for a good return
> it’s a dangerously misleading number to anyone who has a large fraction of their personal wealth invested in AirBnB
Nobody rational with a significant amount of their wealth in a $30bn company hasn't already taken some chips off the table. Whether through cash bonuses, loans, tendered shares or secondary sales.
Nobody rational with a significant amount of their wealth in a $30bn company hasn't already taken some chips off the table. Whether through cash bonuses, loans, tendered shares or secondary sales.
I'm not commenting on the specific valuation, but I think you're looking at their valuation without probabilities priced in.
A $30b valuation is a very rational valuation if you assessed there was a 50% chance of a $0 valuation and a 50% chance of a $60b valuation.
A $30b valuation is a very rational valuation if you assessed there was a 50% chance of a $0 valuation and a 50% chance of a $60b valuation.
Well, you'd also have to have 100% risk tolerance for that to make sense. Something like 50% chance of 0 and 50% chance of 100 billion might be more realistic for a binary outcome valuation like that.
erichocean(1)
[deleted]
No company can guarantee this.
Airbnb treated a lot of customers pretty terribly this year, and I wonder how much that will haunt them in the future.
I tried to stay at an AirBnB in Houston in the summer with broken AC. I left before the first night, and AirBnB wouldn't refund a single dollar. Not the cleaning fee, not their fee, and not the two nights fees.
I tried to stay at an AirBnB in Houston in the summer with broken AC. I left before the first night, and AirBnB wouldn't refund a single dollar. Not the cleaning fee, not their fee, and not the two nights fees.
Airbnb is my favorite way to travel to rural areas and tier 2/3 cities. The people renting are doing what was intended - rent a place out where the only other options are crappy motels, driving more economic activity to their communities and monetizing an unused asset.
However the last times I used Airbnb in major cities it did not go well. In SF I had to do this weird “pretend I’m not an Airbnb traveler” to get past the front desk, which I had to do even though I didn’t want to because I had made no other plans. They didn’t tell me that scheme until I got close. In NYC some guy rented his condo but clearly that wasn’t allowed, he said I had to get luggage into the room ASAP.
It’s obvious that a huge amount of Airbnb is just regulatory arbitrage. People don’t want their buildings turning into hotels, which is what Airbnb enables, and the political wind is blowing against them now. I don’t see them having much success in major cities anymore, unless they sell to small time hotel operators as a booking and management platform.
However the last times I used Airbnb in major cities it did not go well. In SF I had to do this weird “pretend I’m not an Airbnb traveler” to get past the front desk, which I had to do even though I didn’t want to because I had made no other plans. They didn’t tell me that scheme until I got close. In NYC some guy rented his condo but clearly that wasn’t allowed, he said I had to get luggage into the room ASAP.
It’s obvious that a huge amount of Airbnb is just regulatory arbitrage. People don’t want their buildings turning into hotels, which is what Airbnb enables, and the political wind is blowing against them now. I don’t see them having much success in major cities anymore, unless they sell to small time hotel operators as a booking and management platform.
I couldn't agree more. We do a ton of travelling to rural and touristy small towns, and the experience of renting from a super host blows hotels out of the water (and is usually cheaper, or at least similar in price).
Even if Airbnb goes under, there seems to be more than enough demand from both owners and travellers for VRBO or someone else to pick up. It may be different in apartments and townhomes, but I don't see this trend disappearing anywhere else.
Even if Airbnb goes under, there seems to be more than enough demand from both owners and travellers for VRBO or someone else to pick up. It may be different in apartments and townhomes, but I don't see this trend disappearing anywhere else.
coming from anecdotal data (i'm a superhost that co-hosts for others), airbnb's are KILLING it right now as families are visiting families and when families travel, they tend to prefer whole home rentals rather than hotels (in normal times) but in covid times, don't even consider hotels at all so all of the demand goes to airbnb and similar.
i should clarify that my observation is for populated cities that aren't specifically tourist destinations
I would imagine when business travel starts picking back up, they will also prefer whole homes (albeit smaller 1-2 bedrooms) to stay away from the uncontrollable hotel environment which I'd guestimate turns into folks who already had covid or folks who just DGAF.
As a startup founder who already booked airbnb's for team travel instead of hotels, I absolutely won't even consider a hotel until vaccines are readily accessible, if not longer.
the risk to staff are hard to mitigate and I don't even want to think about what happens when traveling employees catch covid on a business trip. gyah.
tldr - still long on airbnb but short term, they are doing better than many would expect because they have like 95% of covid travel stays.
i should clarify that my observation is for populated cities that aren't specifically tourist destinations
I would imagine when business travel starts picking back up, they will also prefer whole homes (albeit smaller 1-2 bedrooms) to stay away from the uncontrollable hotel environment which I'd guestimate turns into folks who already had covid or folks who just DGAF.
As a startup founder who already booked airbnb's for team travel instead of hotels, I absolutely won't even consider a hotel until vaccines are readily accessible, if not longer.
the risk to staff are hard to mitigate and I don't even want to think about what happens when traveling employees catch covid on a business trip. gyah.
tldr - still long on airbnb but short term, they are doing better than many would expect because they have like 95% of covid travel stays.
Anecdotally, I run an Airbnb on our second floor - it's a 450sqft apartment in a pretty good spot in Philadelphia. When the lockdown happened, three months of nearly 100% occupancy evaporated in about three days. After a couple of weeks, local bookings trickled in - 20-somethings who wanted to get high outside of their parents house and take any extra toilet paper they could find. One or two even tried to sneak a party in, but were apologetic and understanding when we asked them to wrap it up and send their friends home. And we finally had our first domestic violence incident, which was traumatic but ultimately resulted in better things for our guest. It bears repeating: 2020 has been rough.
When Airbnb put out guidelines - sanitize, don't allow gatherings, 24-hour cooldown between bookings, etc., we bumped up our rate and started communicating that up front before accepting bookings - and everything got much better. For the last few months, our weekends have been booked solid - mostly for weddings and anniversaries. A couple of remote workers who wanted a change of scenery. Was it the 100% occupancy we've had during summer months in year past? No. But it feels like a better balance.
I think the lockdown flushed out the people misusing the system. Were those people and those setups part of Airbnb's valuation? Probably. But it feels like it's brought things closer to the original purpose of Airbnb. I hope they pull through, but even in the event they don't, someone will swoop in to take over that market.
When Airbnb put out guidelines - sanitize, don't allow gatherings, 24-hour cooldown between bookings, etc., we bumped up our rate and started communicating that up front before accepting bookings - and everything got much better. For the last few months, our weekends have been booked solid - mostly for weddings and anniversaries. A couple of remote workers who wanted a change of scenery. Was it the 100% occupancy we've had during summer months in year past? No. But it feels like a better balance.
I think the lockdown flushed out the people misusing the system. Were those people and those setups part of Airbnb's valuation? Probably. But it feels like it's brought things closer to the original purpose of Airbnb. I hope they pull through, but even in the event they don't, someone will swoop in to take over that market.
I wonder what your thoughts are on what will happen when the world opens back up.
- Do you think some of those problematic/abusive bookings will start coming back? - Do you think Airbnb might actually start marketing hard again to increase demand on their platform?
I suspect that diehard Airbnb fans (most of my close circle prefer it over hotels) will come back quickly when they are able
- Do you think some of those problematic/abusive bookings will start coming back? - Do you think Airbnb might actually start marketing hard again to increase demand on their platform?
I suspect that diehard Airbnb fans (most of my close circle prefer it over hotels) will come back quickly when they are able
While I don't share your fear of hotels, I can add a bit of anecdata from the summer in Europe.
I booked an AirBnB in a major city for 16 days because I thought there was a nonzero chance I'd have to quarantine for 14 of them. Had I tested positive (or not tested) it would have sucked to be in a hotel for the whole stretch, and staying with friends would have defeated the purpose of quarantine.
The price was about 20% below pre-Covid peak prices, so not really much of a discount. A quite nice hotel room would have cost about the same all-in.
I have to think there must be at least some of that factoring in: if you need to go somewhere and you might get quarantined there, you are going to plan ahead, and for lots of reasons quarantine in a 1BR apartment is way nicer than in a hotel.
I booked an AirBnB in a major city for 16 days because I thought there was a nonzero chance I'd have to quarantine for 14 of them. Had I tested positive (or not tested) it would have sucked to be in a hotel for the whole stretch, and staying with friends would have defeated the purpose of quarantine.
The price was about 20% below pre-Covid peak prices, so not really much of a discount. A quite nice hotel room would have cost about the same all-in.
I have to think there must be at least some of that factoring in: if you need to go somewhere and you might get quarantined there, you are going to plan ahead, and for lots of reasons quarantine in a 1BR apartment is way nicer than in a hotel.
Claiming anything before that is ... unwise. I think this article is part of getting more money for Airbnb (promo and marketing wise) so they can try to live through 2021.