House prices rise as Covid sparks rural relocation(bbc.co.uk)

29 pointsby paulpauper6 anni fa6 comments

bbc.co.uk

House prices rise as Covid sparks rural relocation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54986071

6 comments

Is it me or does this article seem to be stretching the data to fit a recent popular narrative in the media? Maybe it is true but the presentation of the data is rather poor.

So property and rent prices grew in almost every region in the UK, including 4% sale price in already sky high London. But we're not told the volume of sales or it's comparison to previous periods, or whether this is median versus average sale price (very important if this is skewed by high end property sales). Nothing about population movement from urban to rural, just a quote from a realtor.

In a lockdown economy on hold, I would imagine average people would be more likely to reluctant to make big moves, while the wealthy continue to buy and sell, driving up prices. Not to mention the incredible amounts of cash pumped into the economy via stimulus and low interest rates.

Curbed published a good analysis on these headlines vs the data this summer, of course regarding the US.

https://archive.curbed.com/2020/7/13/21319909/coronavirus-ur...

jaclaz6 anni fa

Also, very likely, it is largely a "replacement market", i.e. people that already own a flat or house in London decide to sell and buy a (larger) house in the country or in a nearby town, so there should be a flood of houses for sale in the city.

I mean I doubt that most people can afford to buy another house, keeping the one in London, or that most people that are now in a rented house can afford to buy one (even if outside the city) "suddenly".

d136 anni fa

I’m puzzled. Why then do rents seem about 20% lower than last year? I just found a new flat in Bayswater, London which I could not have afforded a year ago. There seems to be huge oversupply at the moment, just from what I’ve observed in the last 2 months of house hunting.

j7ake6 anni fa

One theory would be the apartments that used to be locked up in AirBnBs and short-term rentals have all moved into long-term rentals, driving up supply.

jackfrodo6 anni fa

I'm quite excited about this. I think it will lead to a reduction in "brain drain" here in the American South. Always bummed me out that the top college graduates tend to end up moving away to CA or NYC. Now they can still have those great jobs and contribute to their home or chosen states' economies.

kory6 anni fa

There is a huge shift right now to larger residences with more space. I expect that once city amenities are available again (post vaccine), this balance will steer closer towards the pre-COVID mean.

That, and most folks I've seen online seem to be in the "remote is the future!!", "people will leave tech cities behind!!" route. But these, like most reactions right after a major event, are probably overblown.

We won't have everyone going to the office 5 days a week anymore, and satellite offices in 2nd and 3rd tier cities / rural areas will become more common. This was already the trend before COVID. But that doesn't mean that 50+% of engineers in top companies will be full remote in 5 years, people leave big cities permanently, and city housing price crater.