Will the Chinese Civil War End with a Bang or with a Whimper?(chasfreeman.net)
chasfreeman.net
Will the Chinese Civil War End with a Bang or with a Whimper?
https://chasfreeman.net/will-the-chinese-civil-war-end-with-a-bang-or-with-a-whimper/
66 comments
The article raises a very pertinent question vis-a-vis American commitment and the lengths to which the US is willing to go to stop or reverse a Chinese invasion. The last war where Americans went to great lengths willingly was World War 2. I think that was because most Americans were of European descent, and many were relative newcomers with connections to the old countries, and felt a kinship or personal stake in what happened in Europe. Also, there was a large population of men who were willing to sign up to the military effort voluntarily (the draft was imposed later).
>> think that was because most Americans were of European descent, and many were relative newcomers with connections to the old countries,
I think it was more because Japan attacked the US. Germany and Japan were allies and Hitler was developing intercontinetal rockets. If I read it right the US was very "America First" before Pearl Harbour. How ironic that the U.S got back to America First again...
I think it was more because Japan attacked the US. Germany and Japan were allies and Hitler was developing intercontinetal rockets. If I read it right the US was very "America First" before Pearl Harbour. How ironic that the U.S got back to America First again...
Pearl Harbor was the incident (shortly after the sinking of the Lusitania) that catalyzed America's inevitable entry into the war. There was a very strong isolationist mindset before this period, which mean America simply did not want to be involved much in world affairs at all, let alone take on a leadership role.
I agree that the attack, and the sinking of America's warships touched a nerve with the public. Americans loved their warships and were very proud of them, and an attack on them simply incensed people.
I agree that the attack, and the sinking of America's warships touched a nerve with the public. Americans loved their warships and were very proud of them, and an attack on them simply incensed people.
I've started reading a book on this topic, "Hitler's American Gamble." As the title suggests, it's about the fact that after the US and Japan declared war on each other, Germany declared war on the US four days later, without which it's debatable how soon (or maybe whether) we would have sent troops to the European war.
I'm reading the chapter about 6 December 1941. I think I know what comes next.
BTW, Hitler was not thinking about developing intercontinental rockets until late in the war, so no Americans would have worried about it at that point. At 1941, I don't think the V-2 was even on the drawing board. But you're right about "America First", particularly the Republicans. FDR was itching to get into the European war, as I read it, although his opinion of the British Empire was rather low.
I'm reading the chapter about 6 December 1941. I think I know what comes next.
BTW, Hitler was not thinking about developing intercontinental rockets until late in the war, so no Americans would have worried about it at that point. At 1941, I don't think the V-2 was even on the drawing board. But you're right about "America First", particularly the Republicans. FDR was itching to get into the European war, as I read it, although his opinion of the British Empire was rather low.
With a whimper.
As long as Taiwan doesn't declare its independence, China won't be in a hurry to integrate Taiwan. Why would it attack Taiwan and destroy its own assets? That would be like the US attacking Hawaii and bombing Honolulu.
On the other hand, if Hawaii declared its independence, the US would not hesitate to attack it and bring it 'back to the fold', as happened with the Confederacy only a hundred and sixty years ago. As the US goes, so then China.
As long as Taiwan doesn't declare its independence, China won't be in a hurry to integrate Taiwan. Why would it attack Taiwan and destroy its own assets? That would be like the US attacking Hawaii and bombing Honolulu.
On the other hand, if Hawaii declared its independence, the US would not hesitate to attack it and bring it 'back to the fold', as happened with the Confederacy only a hundred and sixty years ago. As the US goes, so then China.
Comparing Hawaii to Taiwan makes no sense since Taiwan and China are two separate countries. A better comparison would be the hypothetical situation where Spain starts claiming Portugal is a part of Spain and then pressuring other countries to support that position.
I'm sorry, but did you read the introduction of the article? And are you familiar with the history of Hawaii ( that they were an independent country and have culture and history of their own)?
Taiwan is the remnants of the losing party of the Chinese civil war, that ran away to the island of Taiwan/Formosa, and assimilated the locals. It's like if the Confederacy run away to Hawaii and genocided the locals. They're not a separate country legally, and don't even claim to be.
Taiwan is the remnants of the losing party of the Chinese civil war, that ran away to the island of Taiwan/Formosa, and assimilated the locals. It's like if the Confederacy run away to Hawaii and genocided the locals. They're not a separate country legally, and don't even claim to be.
It’s clearly you who are not familiar with history. Hawaii and its position in the US might be compared to Xinjiang and its position in China. But Taiwan is totally different. Taiwan just isn’t a part of of China/PRC. It was before and a some people think it should be again, but today Taiwan/ROC and China/PRC are two separate states.
Nope, you're just conflicting history, international law and recognition, and perception of the current situation. You can't talk about "familiarity with history" and "but today". Precisely because the history is so complicated the "today" is too.
How is Taiwan totally different? The Kuomintang lost the civil war, and ran away to Formosa/Taiwan, where they assimilated the local population by not always nice means. (The comparison with Hawaii is valid only in an alternate universe where the CSA run away there and just continued to exist.) There was never a peace treaty, and up until very recently the ROC still pretended to be "the one and only China". They don't themselves claim to be an independent country, and aren't one de jure ( probably to a significant extent because they fear China's retribution if they do so, but still). As far as China and literally almost all of the world are concerned, Taiwan is an island belonging to China. The legitimate Chinese government is the PRC.
The de facto situation is that Taiwan is for most intents and purposes an independent country, and the "ideal" solution is for them to just become one, but China has no desire ( and why should they have it?) to just let go of something they consider theirs.
It should furthermore be noted that China has experience with temporarily ceded territory they retake after tens if not hundreds of years ( Hong Kong, Liaoning, Manchuria, Qingdao, etc.), so i don't think they see things as "this land hasn't been ours for X time, it's no longer a part of us".
How is Taiwan totally different? The Kuomintang lost the civil war, and ran away to Formosa/Taiwan, where they assimilated the local population by not always nice means. (The comparison with Hawaii is valid only in an alternate universe where the CSA run away there and just continued to exist.) There was never a peace treaty, and up until very recently the ROC still pretended to be "the one and only China". They don't themselves claim to be an independent country, and aren't one de jure ( probably to a significant extent because they fear China's retribution if they do so, but still). As far as China and literally almost all of the world are concerned, Taiwan is an island belonging to China. The legitimate Chinese government is the PRC.
The de facto situation is that Taiwan is for most intents and purposes an independent country, and the "ideal" solution is for them to just become one, but China has no desire ( and why should they have it?) to just let go of something they consider theirs.
It should furthermore be noted that China has experience with temporarily ceded territory they retake after tens if not hundreds of years ( Hong Kong, Liaoning, Manchuria, Qingdao, etc.), so i don't think they see things as "this land hasn't been ours for X time, it's no longer a part of us".
I'm not sure what to say about your comparison to Hawaii. Hawaii has been dominated by the US since it was conquered. Xinjiang and Tibet have been dominated by the PRC for a long time. Taiwan has _never_ been controlled by the PRC. To say they are the same is delusional. I'll just leave this topic because you seem to be set on believing this more than really thinking critically about it. Think what you will.
> As far as China and literally almost all of the world are concerned, Taiwan is an island belonging to China. The legitimate Chinese government is the PRC.
Which countries take this stance? For example, the US certainly does not say that Taiwan is PRC territory. There's never been any UN decision saying so either. So I'd be interested to hear what countries you're referring to considering it's apparently "almost all the world".
> It should furthermore be noted that China has experience with temporarily ceded territory they retake after tens if not hundreds of years ( Hong Kong, Liaoning, Manchuria, Qingdao, etc.), so i don't think they see things as "this land hasn't been ours for X time, it's no longer a part of us".
Yeah it's pretty standard for countries to try to legitimize their military imperialism. It's much easier than to admit as a society that you're just a bunch of warmongers opportunistically oppressing weaker peoples. China really isn't any different.
> As far as China and literally almost all of the world are concerned, Taiwan is an island belonging to China. The legitimate Chinese government is the PRC.
Which countries take this stance? For example, the US certainly does not say that Taiwan is PRC territory. There's never been any UN decision saying so either. So I'd be interested to hear what countries you're referring to considering it's apparently "almost all the world".
> It should furthermore be noted that China has experience with temporarily ceded territory they retake after tens if not hundreds of years ( Hong Kong, Liaoning, Manchuria, Qingdao, etc.), so i don't think they see things as "this land hasn't been ours for X time, it's no longer a part of us".
Yeah it's pretty standard for countries to try to legitimize their military imperialism. It's much easier than to admit as a society that you're just a bunch of warmongers opportunistically oppressing weaker peoples. China really isn't any different.
You're too hung up on the Hawaii example, so I'll clarify again - it'd be exactly the same scenario if the Confederacy run away to it and stayed there while assimilating the local population. They didn't, so it's not the same.
As for the stance, the US officially recognises the PRC's claim over Taiwan. The rest of the world recognises the PRC as the one and only China, and nobody recognises Taiwan as an independent country. Which means that either Taiwan doesn't exist, or is within the PRC for everyone de jure.
I'm sorry, but.. i don't even know how to respond to the last bit. I give you examples of China taking back lands they were deprived of for decades by foreign imperialists ( Hong Kong and co), and your response to this is that China is the imperialist warmonger in that situation? What were they to do, leave their territory partitioned by foreign colonialists? When France took back Alsace-Lorraine, or when Turkey fought against the Sevres treaty, was that an imperialist act? (The rest of what France was doing, and a lot of what China is doing today are very much imperialist, but liberating your own lands from a foreign imperialist power is... not imperialism)
As for the stance, the US officially recognises the PRC's claim over Taiwan. The rest of the world recognises the PRC as the one and only China, and nobody recognises Taiwan as an independent country. Which means that either Taiwan doesn't exist, or is within the PRC for everyone de jure.
I'm sorry, but.. i don't even know how to respond to the last bit. I give you examples of China taking back lands they were deprived of for decades by foreign imperialists ( Hong Kong and co), and your response to this is that China is the imperialist warmonger in that situation? What were they to do, leave their territory partitioned by foreign colonialists? When France took back Alsace-Lorraine, or when Turkey fought against the Sevres treaty, was that an imperialist act? (The rest of what France was doing, and a lot of what China is doing today are very much imperialist, but liberating your own lands from a foreign imperialist power is... not imperialism)
> You're too hung up on the Hawaii example...
My whole point in this in these posts is that Taiwan's situation is _not_ comparable to Hawaii. Your initial response was to question my knowledge of history and the situation. But given that you here are tacitly admitting that Hawaii really isn't comparable to Taiwan I guess I can drop the subject. You don't yet seem to be able to openly admit the comparison was wrong, but you at least (subconsciously maybe?) understand it to be the case so I'll settle with that.
> As for the stance, the US officially recognises the PRC's claim over Taiwan.
I'm sorry, but are you saying the US has recognized the PRC's claim to Taiwan? I'm probably just misreading you, but in that case, you are totally wrong. Is that what you believe?
> The rest of the world recognises the PRC as the one and only China, and nobody recognises Taiwan as an independent country. Which means that either Taiwan doesn't exist, or is within the PRC for everyone de jure.
Yeah you now basically almost understand it. If you want to be most accurate, basically the US doesn't have an official stance as to who governs Taiwan. As in, they do not exist if you want to put it that way. If that seems like a silly position, you must realize that it's really just a pretend game to placate China. Of course the US considers the ROC the true government of Taiwan considering the myriad of ways the US deals with it (economy, travel, military, etc.), but they wont say it out loud because that way they can exploit China's markets while playing to Chinese denial of reality. Regardless, no the US has not taken the position that Taiwan is PRC territory. That is a fact that you might want to internalize. I'm pretty sure it's exactly the same situation with the vast majority of countries (certainly in Europe, but I can't speak to the whole world).
> I'm sorry, but.. i don't even know how to respond to the last bit. I give you examples of China taking back lands they were deprived of for decades by foreign imperialists ( Hong Kong and co), and your response to this is that China is the imperialist warmonger in that situation? What were they to do, leave their territory partitioned by foreign colonialists? When France took back Alsace-Lorraine, or when Turkey fought against the Sevres treaty, was that an imperialist act? (The rest of what France was doing, and a lot of what China is doing today are very much imperialist, but liberating your own lands from a foreign imperialist power is... not imperialism)
China is trying to take over lands and peoples that have basically been separate for 120 years. Those peoples don't want to be a part of China. Just accept it. China is a warmonger and an imperialist. It would be no different than if Russia invaded all its former lands in Europe because they were part of the Russian empire 100 years back. Stop trying to pretend that other countries' past actions legitimize China's. Have a little self-respect.
My whole point in this in these posts is that Taiwan's situation is _not_ comparable to Hawaii. Your initial response was to question my knowledge of history and the situation. But given that you here are tacitly admitting that Hawaii really isn't comparable to Taiwan I guess I can drop the subject. You don't yet seem to be able to openly admit the comparison was wrong, but you at least (subconsciously maybe?) understand it to be the case so I'll settle with that.
> As for the stance, the US officially recognises the PRC's claim over Taiwan.
I'm sorry, but are you saying the US has recognized the PRC's claim to Taiwan? I'm probably just misreading you, but in that case, you are totally wrong. Is that what you believe?
> The rest of the world recognises the PRC as the one and only China, and nobody recognises Taiwan as an independent country. Which means that either Taiwan doesn't exist, or is within the PRC for everyone de jure.
Yeah you now basically almost understand it. If you want to be most accurate, basically the US doesn't have an official stance as to who governs Taiwan. As in, they do not exist if you want to put it that way. If that seems like a silly position, you must realize that it's really just a pretend game to placate China. Of course the US considers the ROC the true government of Taiwan considering the myriad of ways the US deals with it (economy, travel, military, etc.), but they wont say it out loud because that way they can exploit China's markets while playing to Chinese denial of reality. Regardless, no the US has not taken the position that Taiwan is PRC territory. That is a fact that you might want to internalize. I'm pretty sure it's exactly the same situation with the vast majority of countries (certainly in Europe, but I can't speak to the whole world).
> I'm sorry, but.. i don't even know how to respond to the last bit. I give you examples of China taking back lands they were deprived of for decades by foreign imperialists ( Hong Kong and co), and your response to this is that China is the imperialist warmonger in that situation? What were they to do, leave their territory partitioned by foreign colonialists? When France took back Alsace-Lorraine, or when Turkey fought against the Sevres treaty, was that an imperialist act? (The rest of what France was doing, and a lot of what China is doing today are very much imperialist, but liberating your own lands from a foreign imperialist power is... not imperialism)
China is trying to take over lands and peoples that have basically been separate for 120 years. Those peoples don't want to be a part of China. Just accept it. China is a warmonger and an imperialist. It would be no different than if Russia invaded all its former lands in Europe because they were part of the Russian empire 100 years back. Stop trying to pretend that other countries' past actions legitimize China's. Have a little self-respect.
History (and how it's manipulated) is just another layer of legitimacy for PRC claims over TW. PRC will still operate on the logic that ROC territories whether gained by Japanese ceding postwar or ROC colonization was legally reverted to PRC when UN recognition for China switched to PRC from ROC. Just like how formally, the PRC/ROC civil war continues. As long as formalities (at UN) is on PRC side, it has discourse power and political flexibility to reunify/"invade" TW with reduced cost.
This article misses in its analysis that China has just tipped over the precipice of a devastating, all-encompassing economic collapse. 10s of trillions of RMB in real estate value are evaporating right now, never to be recovered. This will have at least some effect on the will and ability to fight.
Fighting might be viewed as a useful distraction. I think Putin is thinking the same.
The Chinese Civil War is over, it ended 70 years ago. If something starts now it would be a new war.
I agree that it ended and a new conflict would likely be named something different but formally there was never an armistice or peace treaty.
I don't see the point of focusing on these formalities. If the PRC and the ROC had signed a peace treaty 70 years ago, the PRC could still declare war today. Just as /u/spaced-out said, the Chinese Civil War really is over. Pretending like that isn't the case due to there not being a peace treaty is just the PRC looking for a flimsy pretext to paper over their military belligerence. Presumably it's easier to do that than it is to admit that the PRC in fact isn't a peaceful government as it likes to claim.
That's an irrelevant formality. The people who will have to do the fighting, and even Xi himself, were not even alive during the Civil War. If he orders people to start shooting after >70 years of peace, he's starting a war.
Finishing a war. There wasn't 70 years of peace. ROC port closure policy to blockade PRC lasted into the 80s, while ROC was used as staging for US operations into PRC throughout cold war. This is relatively recent memory, literally everyone in current and prospective PRC leadership was alive to understand the liability of TW as US asset, which has to be addressed eventually via conclusion of civil war. PRC hasn't even retaliated escalation to ROC measures of full island blockade and unrestrict infiltration over TW airspace. Just because PRC is behaving good (relatively) doesn't mean it will continue to. Nor that even if formally PRC had to start a new war to take TW, it will because the underlying security considerations are the same.
This is a great article, thank you for posting it. Very interesting to see the presentation of the Chinese perspective here.
What civil war? Taiwan isn't China.
There could be a civil war in China once the CCP falls.
There could be a civil war in China once the CCP falls.
> It has become very hard to see a path to its peaceful resolution. But anything else would be a tragedy with incalculable collateral damage...
Why? The article references "Outer Mongolia" too, nobody seems to be clamoring for reunification. State sovereignty splits over geographic areas and populations all the time. Why is reunification a necessity?
> U.S. support for Taiwan’s continuing separation from the rest of China is a perpetuation of foreign imperialist efforts to carve their country into spheres of influence, disrespect the right of Chinese to determine their own destiny...
Oh I see now.
Define "Chinese"?" Do Malay and Singaporean Chinese count? Isn't the author refusing to cede the fact that Taiwanese and mainland Han are diverging cultures an act of denying them self determination? Why must the two groups remain together in perpetuity?
> Beijing has repeatedly emphasized its strong preference for accomplishing national reunification peacefully rather than with a use of force. It has offered to accept what amounts to a symbolic rather than substantive form of reunification to Taiwan. But to “win without fighting,” Beijing must show that, even if the U.S. backs Taiwan, its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would surely win if the two sides were to return to combat, and that Taipei therefore has no realistic alternative to the negotiation of some form of reconciliation with Chinese across the Strait.
Voluntarily come under our sovereignty or else. See, we are peaceful!
> The PLA’s current shows of force are aimed at bringing Taipei back to the negotiating table, which the island abandoned when it elected leaders committed themselves to seek an identity separate from China. So far, Beijing’s shows of force have not changed Taipei’s refusal to talk about “peaceful reunification.” No talks mean no path to peace.
Again, they've democratically opted for self determination and sovereignty over themselves. Why can't the PRC do the same? Where's the imperialism here?
And that comes to the real truth of this matter. The PRC is imperialist. The majority of what we consider to be "China" is under occupation, and has been even under ROC and the Emperor before that. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, do I need to keep going? These are not regions within China, these are nations under Han imperialist rule, and they have been to different degrees for centuries. Arguing that these nations don't deserve self determination, and then invoking anti-imperialism, the complete lack of self awareness in this article is quite telling.
Why? The article references "Outer Mongolia" too, nobody seems to be clamoring for reunification. State sovereignty splits over geographic areas and populations all the time. Why is reunification a necessity?
> U.S. support for Taiwan’s continuing separation from the rest of China is a perpetuation of foreign imperialist efforts to carve their country into spheres of influence, disrespect the right of Chinese to determine their own destiny...
Oh I see now.
Define "Chinese"?" Do Malay and Singaporean Chinese count? Isn't the author refusing to cede the fact that Taiwanese and mainland Han are diverging cultures an act of denying them self determination? Why must the two groups remain together in perpetuity?
> Beijing has repeatedly emphasized its strong preference for accomplishing national reunification peacefully rather than with a use of force. It has offered to accept what amounts to a symbolic rather than substantive form of reunification to Taiwan. But to “win without fighting,” Beijing must show that, even if the U.S. backs Taiwan, its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would surely win if the two sides were to return to combat, and that Taipei therefore has no realistic alternative to the negotiation of some form of reconciliation with Chinese across the Strait.
Voluntarily come under our sovereignty or else. See, we are peaceful!
> The PLA’s current shows of force are aimed at bringing Taipei back to the negotiating table, which the island abandoned when it elected leaders committed themselves to seek an identity separate from China. So far, Beijing’s shows of force have not changed Taipei’s refusal to talk about “peaceful reunification.” No talks mean no path to peace.
Again, they've democratically opted for self determination and sovereignty over themselves. Why can't the PRC do the same? Where's the imperialism here?
And that comes to the real truth of this matter. The PRC is imperialist. The majority of what we consider to be "China" is under occupation, and has been even under ROC and the Emperor before that. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, do I need to keep going? These are not regions within China, these are nations under Han imperialist rule, and they have been to different degrees for centuries. Arguing that these nations don't deserve self determination, and then invoking anti-imperialism, the complete lack of self awareness in this article is quite telling.
It's a very interesting article, but some of the word choices leave a very bad taste in my mouth.
> As Vietnam did, China cares deeply about national unity and immunity from foreign intervention. We fought bravely in Vietnam but lost because Hanoi, despite its military inferiority, cared far more about the outcome than we did. Hanoi was prepared to sacrifice everything to reunite its country. We were not willing to do as much to keep it divided.
> What sacrifices in lives and treasure are Americans prepared to make to assure unilateral self-determination for Taiwan?
The article makes it sound like Taiwan is unreasonable for "unilaterally" not wanting be invaded by a country with overwhelming military superiority and a totalitarian regime. Maybe Taiwan should defer to China's opinion on whether China should invade Taiwan?
I mean, if your opinion is "China can and will invade any smaller neighbors it deems to occupy, there's nothing the US can do to stop them, and we shouldn't waste our lives trying", fine, go ahead and say so.
But stop using language like "divising" and "reuniting" to pretend this is anything other than a totalitarian regime planning its next military conquest to appease the masses.
> As Vietnam did, China cares deeply about national unity and immunity from foreign intervention. We fought bravely in Vietnam but lost because Hanoi, despite its military inferiority, cared far more about the outcome than we did. Hanoi was prepared to sacrifice everything to reunite its country. We were not willing to do as much to keep it divided.
> What sacrifices in lives and treasure are Americans prepared to make to assure unilateral self-determination for Taiwan?
The article makes it sound like Taiwan is unreasonable for "unilaterally" not wanting be invaded by a country with overwhelming military superiority and a totalitarian regime. Maybe Taiwan should defer to China's opinion on whether China should invade Taiwan?
I mean, if your opinion is "China can and will invade any smaller neighbors it deems to occupy, there's nothing the US can do to stop them, and we shouldn't waste our lives trying", fine, go ahead and say so.
But stop using language like "divising" and "reuniting" to pretend this is anything other than a totalitarian regime planning its next military conquest to appease the masses.
> The article makes it sound like Taiwan is unreasonable for "unilaterally" not wanting be invaded by a country with overwhelming military superiority and a totalitarian regime.
The article really focuses on the US foreign policy, not Taiwan's. It's just questioning the US's NeoLiberal Foreign Policy strategy & the cost of interventions; like in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria...
The article really focuses on the US foreign policy, not Taiwan's. It's just questioning the US's NeoLiberal Foreign Policy strategy & the cost of interventions; like in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria...
It's a good summary of much of the specifics of the situation but his conclusions aren't quite right. Ignoring Taiwan in relation to the overall strategic conflict with China's regional dominance ambitions is either disingenuous or ignorant to reality. Letting China do to Taiwan what it has done with Hong Kong, or more likely, Xinjiang is not the end but rather the beginning.
> Letting China do to Taiwan what it has done with Hong Kong, or more likely, Xinjiang
Xinjiang is ethnically and culturally (Muslim) different than the rest of China. It would be more like Hong Kong.
Xinjiang is ethnically and culturally (Muslim) different than the rest of China. It would be more like Hong Kong.
I think OP is suggesting expansion won't stop at Taiwan. What will happen to Filipinos who find themselves living in a new Chinese province?
> I think OP is suggesting expansion won't stop at Taiwan
Assimilation didn't stop with Hong Kong either, still a very different situation than Xinjiang.
Are you suggesting that they would have an interest in the Philippines? Which I don't think has any historical precedent? China has historically not been imperialist in the Western sense, they have been perfectly fine with other non-Chinese countries existing which is why there is still a Korea or Vietnam.
Assimilation didn't stop with Hong Kong either, still a very different situation than Xinjiang.
Are you suggesting that they would have an interest in the Philippines? Which I don't think has any historical precedent? China has historically not been imperialist in the Western sense, they have been perfectly fine with other non-Chinese countries existing which is why there is still a Korea or Vietnam.
I don't have a PhD in south-east asian history and it's not well taught but this doesn't comport with my understanding at all
Isn't fighting China off a core part of their culture/history?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_under_Chinese_rule
Isn't fighting China off a core part of their culture/history?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_under_Chinese_rule
I was referring to not being a historical precedent with the Philipines. I am not an expert in south-asian studies either, but my understanding of Chinese Imperialism & their relation with Korea & Vietnam etc, was that they have been quasi independent vassal states which is quite different than traditional western imperialism or having a direct claim on the land.
It wouldn’t be much like Hong Kong actually. Taiwan has a military and is much more capable of defending itself against a Chinese invasion.
They dont have enough of a military to stop China at this point. They would need assistance. Deterence to avoid a conflict better still.
They do have enough military and citizens, however, who would survive the invasion but not go along quietly to justify a severe crack down as has happend dozens of times in Chinas recent (and distant) history.
They do have enough military and citizens, however, who would survive the invasion but not go along quietly to justify a severe crack down as has happend dozens of times in Chinas recent (and distant) history.
Maybe they don't have enough military and maybe they do. Hopefully China will see the value in peace so we'll never need to know. And yes I agree deterrence is definitely key to avoiding conflict.
Uh Hong Kong wasn't invaded? The British returned control of it to China when the '100 year lease' expired. Somewhat similar situation with a foreign power supporting a democratic government, except support for Taiwan is much more popular domestically in the US.
I didn’t say that Hong Kong was invaded. It is Taiwan that would require an invasion. Hence there isn’t really any comparing Hong Kong to Taiwan. So thanks for making my point.
> Taiwan that would require an invasion
Maybe at this date & time, but I'd bet in the next 100 years there will be a non military unification. To me it seems like there hasn't been much of a fundamental change in Geo-Politics around Taiwan in a long time... and that the main reason an invasion of Taiwan is being brought up in US media is ironically because of how poorly NeoLiberalism FP went in Afghanistan.
Maybe at this date & time, but I'd bet in the next 100 years there will be a non military unification. To me it seems like there hasn't been much of a fundamental change in Geo-Politics around Taiwan in a long time... and that the main reason an invasion of Taiwan is being brought up in US media is ironically because of how poorly NeoLiberalism FP went in Afghanistan.
Actually only New Territories were later leased, the main part of Kowlung and Hong Kong Island were ceded to the British in perpetuity under the Convention of Peking.
The British ceded the main parts of Hong Kong back along with the return of New Territories under the understanding that there would be one country and two systems.
In the 70s and 80s the British government did everything Beijing asked with things like not making Hong Kongers full British citizens.
Those compromises were supposed to gain something for the people of Hong Kong after reunification with PRC.
It’s Xi that’s renegaded on that promise and refused to allow a free press or opposition politicians to stand in Hong Kong.
You’d be mad to think that this time “peaceful” unification would be anything more than “do what we say, say what we say and we won’t shoot you family”.
The British ceded the main parts of Hong Kong back along with the return of New Territories under the understanding that there would be one country and two systems.
In the 70s and 80s the British government did everything Beijing asked with things like not making Hong Kongers full British citizens.
Those compromises were supposed to gain something for the people of Hong Kong after reunification with PRC.
It’s Xi that’s renegaded on that promise and refused to allow a free press or opposition politicians to stand in Hong Kong.
You’d be mad to think that this time “peaceful” unification would be anything more than “do what we say, say what we say and we won’t shoot you family”.
The majority of the land mass of what we call China is culturally and ethnically different than the dominant cultural and ethnic group. "China" is a remnant of the empire's sovereignty and the one China policy is the continuation of Han imperialism over the inner regions of east Asia.
The comment you're responding to is more about PRC actions in those regions. The PRC will commit genocide in Taiwan if they need to do it to stamp out any lingering sentiment of independence, like they are doing in Xinjiang.
The comment you're responding to is more about PRC actions in those regions. The PRC will commit genocide in Taiwan if they need to do it to stamp out any lingering sentiment of independence, like they are doing in Xinjiang.
To further back this up. See what the ROC did in Taiwan to stamp out any lingering sentiment of independence when they arrived.[0]
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)
> The majority of the land mass of what we call China is culturally and ethnically different than the dominant cultural and ethnic group.
The land mass maybe... but the population of China is 90%+ Han
> The PRC will commit genocide in Taiwan if they need to
Agreed, but I still think that is significantly less likely to occur in Hong Kong or Taiwan because of shared race and culture.
The land mass maybe... but the population of China is 90%+ Han
> The PRC will commit genocide in Taiwan if they need to
Agreed, but I still think that is significantly less likely to occur in Hong Kong or Taiwan because of shared race and culture.
You are assuming that its purely a racism thing, rather than an internal security thing. The Chinese have killed way more of their own ethnic kind in the last six decades than they have Uyghurs. All in the name of internal security and cultural leaps forward and such.
Taiwan is one element in the relationship between China and the USA. The author goes out of his way to ignore any of the aggressive actions being taken by China which might be causing the USA to strengthen its grip on Taiwan.
I would ask the author: “has China been engaging in…say economic warfare…which might make the USA think handing them Taiwan is not a good idea?”
The argument “but you have been inconsistent” is a non argument. The argument “but we deserve to have Taiwan” being portrayed here is a non argument.
The entire argument by the author is very suspicious and I suspect he is probably well compensated for producing these deceptive pieces.
I would ask the author: “has China been engaging in…say economic warfare…which might make the USA think handing them Taiwan is not a good idea?”
The argument “but you have been inconsistent” is a non argument. The argument “but we deserve to have Taiwan” being portrayed here is a non argument.
The entire argument by the author is very suspicious and I suspect he is probably well compensated for producing these deceptive pieces.
The idea that the US has the right to hand anyone anything in Asia is quite hilarious. I expect the civil war will end with a whimper and reunification.
> I expect the civil war will end with a whimper and reunification.
Why do you suppose China hasn’t already prevailed?
Taiwan is a hard target. China’s ships crossing the strait will be highly vulnerable, as will aircraft.
What Taiwan needs in order to maintain the current status quo is an improved asymmetric threat leveraging anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles. Ideally such missile systems will be numerous, highly mobile and concealable.
If China knows it can’t land a viable invasion force, hostilities will never begin. That’s aside from the likely involvement of the US and regional allies like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Australia.
Why do you suppose China hasn’t already prevailed?
Taiwan is a hard target. China’s ships crossing the strait will be highly vulnerable, as will aircraft.
What Taiwan needs in order to maintain the current status quo is an improved asymmetric threat leveraging anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles. Ideally such missile systems will be numerous, highly mobile and concealable.
If China knows it can’t land a viable invasion force, hostilities will never begin. That’s aside from the likely involvement of the US and regional allies like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Australia.
>Why do you suppose China hasn’t already prevailed?
Peaceful reunification still priority, except one remark that force is always an option by Xi a few years ago, there hasn't been any PRC/Xi departure from this position in 8 years of his tenure. Notion that PRC wants to invade TW in near/medium timelines is manufactured propaganda.
But in terms of actual military capability: taking TW is simple but deterring US is hard.
Even ardent "porcupine" advocates from US think tank / blobs have concluded by now no amount of asymmetric porcupining will meaningfully deter PRC but is only useful to buy time for US response. SO PRC focus is to (and has been since modernization started) mitigate US response, while simultaneously making defeating TW simpler. Note simpler does not mean easy, merely all the force balance calculations of PRC taking unsupported TW has been forgone for years by PRC planners. Now US planners in last few years as well. The TLDR is PLA reforms/modernization is aiming to challenge US military hegemony, it's going after the big fish because everything smaller will be manageable by then.
And there's likely no involvement especially by SK, Vietnam (or rest of ASEAN). Likely not even Japan or Australia, US most ardent allies who has so far done nothing but theatre that doesn't credibly move posture towards supporting TW defense.
Peaceful reunification still priority, except one remark that force is always an option by Xi a few years ago, there hasn't been any PRC/Xi departure from this position in 8 years of his tenure. Notion that PRC wants to invade TW in near/medium timelines is manufactured propaganda.
But in terms of actual military capability: taking TW is simple but deterring US is hard.
Even ardent "porcupine" advocates from US think tank / blobs have concluded by now no amount of asymmetric porcupining will meaningfully deter PRC but is only useful to buy time for US response. SO PRC focus is to (and has been since modernization started) mitigate US response, while simultaneously making defeating TW simpler. Note simpler does not mean easy, merely all the force balance calculations of PRC taking unsupported TW has been forgone for years by PRC planners. Now US planners in last few years as well. The TLDR is PLA reforms/modernization is aiming to challenge US military hegemony, it's going after the big fish because everything smaller will be manageable by then.
And there's likely no involvement especially by SK, Vietnam (or rest of ASEAN). Likely not even Japan or Australia, US most ardent allies who has so far done nothing but theatre that doesn't credibly move posture towards supporting TW defense.
> In 1775, we Americans were only able to achieve self-determination from our British motherland through six years of bitter warfare and two years of tough negotiations.
Erm no, Americans were only able to achieve independence because France intervened. They would have been completely crushed otherwise, and this is not even an hyperbole.
Erm no, Americans were only able to achieve independence because France intervened. They would have been completely crushed otherwise, and this is not even an hyperbole.
That’s a detail that’s not really important to the point being made.
I know that the Americans have a creation myth where they see the British as unspeakably evil and Americans as an oppressed people, but the reality is that the situation was very messy and there were differing views on all sides.
The fact is that American independence actually had some sympathy among the British establishment. This made the Treaty of Paris possible, which made American Independence legal and recognised internationally. There is no longer a disagreement about the status of the United States because of this.
There is no such support for Taiwanese independence in China and I cannot see them ever recognising a Taiwanese State, no matter how badly they lose a war. Without Chinese recognition i cant see Taiwan ever getting much recognition internationally.
I know that the Americans have a creation myth where they see the British as unspeakably evil and Americans as an oppressed people, but the reality is that the situation was very messy and there were differing views on all sides.
The fact is that American independence actually had some sympathy among the British establishment. This made the Treaty of Paris possible, which made American Independence legal and recognised internationally. There is no longer a disagreement about the status of the United States because of this.
There is no such support for Taiwanese independence in China and I cannot see them ever recognising a Taiwanese State, no matter how badly they lose a war. Without Chinese recognition i cant see Taiwan ever getting much recognition internationally.
> There is no such support for Taiwanese independence in China
How can there ever be since China is a totallitarian state with complete control of information and repression of dissidents? They have setup the game to have a consensus that everyone else is Evil and they are the only ones in the right.
How can there ever be since China is a totallitarian state with complete control of information and repression of dissidents? They have setup the game to have a consensus that everyone else is Evil and they are the only ones in the right.
Do we? I think our creation myth maintains that the English were irretrievably stuffy, and that’s pretty much good enough for all of us. I never saw them as irretrievably evil, just comical really.
France & Spain were very strategic to how things played out, but they joined years into the war after the failure of the Germain plan at Saratoga. Once the US revolution got under way, England had a herculean task of trying to occupy the entire east coast & US population of 2.5 million, the entire British army was only 48k people (spread across 3 continents) at the start of the war. The war was also incredibly un-popular in England, until France got involved, so devoting resources was difficult. It was almost a civil war since the colonists were British, not a foreign threat. Top military brass actually turned down the post of overseeing the war rather than fight their countrymen & opposition MP's wore the colors of Washington's Army to parliament.
That's an interesting theory. How do you square that with France not joining the war until more than halfway through, and only after the Americans started winning major battles at, e.g., Saratoga?
There's no doubt the French were instrumental in, par exemple, Yorktown. But my admittedly not well-informed view is that "crushed" is a significant overstatement.
There's no doubt the French were instrumental in, par exemple, Yorktown. But my admittedly not well-informed view is that "crushed" is a significant overstatement.
> How do you square that with France not joining the war until more than halfway through
Going by your logic the US involvement in WWII wasn't significant because it didn't started with the war. History manuals are saying otherwise though.
Going by your logic the US involvement in WWII wasn't significant because it didn't started with the war. History manuals are saying otherwise though.
> Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize.
Those are the site guidelines. If you want to truncate quotes so you can attack a straw man, go somewhere else. (x & y) and (x) dont mean the same thing and you know that.
Those are the site guidelines. If you want to truncate quotes so you can attack a straw man, go somewhere else. (x & y) and (x) dont mean the same thing and you know that.
Of course their involvement was significant in how things played out. But your analogy would like be saying the USSR would have been dominated by Germany without the US entering the war with a Europe first strategy. It would have been a strategically worse situation, but it's really not clear if that would have made Germany successful on the eastern front.
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Roderigue Hortalez and Company (aka: France) started giving USA arms in 1775, at least a year before the Declaration of Independence (but after the "Shot heard round the world" / Battle of Lexington).
Without those guns and support, the revolution would have been dead before it even started.
Without those guns and support, the revolution would have been dead before it even started.
> How do you square that with France not joining the war until more than halfway through
because you don't set up a massive expedition like that from one day to another, especially in the 1700s. I know we are all used to Amazon-speed these days but just even knowing WHAT was happening on another continent took months at the time.
because you don't set up a massive expedition like that from one day to another, especially in the 1700s. I know we are all used to Amazon-speed these days but just even knowing WHAT was happening on another continent took months at the time.
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The video to it with the slides by Lyle Goldstein:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRs5501GExc&list=PLBrPYoChOf...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRs5501GExc&list=PLBrPYoChOf...