Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045(futurism.com)
futurism.com
Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045
https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045
12 comments
The idea of taking 250 supplements together, even if they were individually shown to do something positive, is just nuts. There’s no way anyone could possibly know the interactions that would come out of that kind of polypharmacy.
That said, there actually are drugs today (6, in fact) that reliably extend lifespan in model animals by 20%. Of course there hasn’t been enough time to show efficacy in humans but there’s at least a decent chance that even without new discoveries, the average lifespan could be pushed out to late 90s.
That said, there actually are drugs today (6, in fact) that reliably extend lifespan in model animals by 20%. Of course there hasn’t been enough time to show efficacy in humans but there’s at least a decent chance that even without new discoveries, the average lifespan could be pushed out to late 90s.
That many supplements makes number of your liver if nothing else. Alkaline water is completely debunked. There no evidence or realistic way to have health effects.
> reliably extend lifespan in model animals by 20%.
This is true. The general rule of thumb seems to be that treatments increase the lifespan of animals inversely to their size. Several promising treatments suggest that if fruit fly and smaller have 2X - 3X lifespan increase, then mice have 20-30%, and finally monkeys and humans get just 3-5%
Getting healthy lifespan close to 90 would be a major win even if absolute lifespan would not grow significantly.
> reliably extend lifespan in model animals by 20%.
This is true. The general rule of thumb seems to be that treatments increase the lifespan of animals inversely to their size. Several promising treatments suggest that if fruit fly and smaller have 2X - 3X lifespan increase, then mice have 20-30%, and finally monkeys and humans get just 3-5%
Getting healthy lifespan close to 90 would be a major win even if absolute lifespan would not grow significantly.
And if you were to talk about a 45 year old today living another 45 years… it’s not a crazy idea to think longevity interventions will improve during those 45 years, pushing things out even further.
Ah, no it won't.
This is a religious movement. This is exactly the same as some devout Christian group claiming the 2nd Coming is coming by 2045. No different. No more likely to happen. All the same "cultish thinking and motivations"!!
This is a religious movement. This is exactly the same as some devout Christian group claiming the 2nd Coming is coming by 2045. No different. No more likely to happen. All the same "cultish thinking and motivations"!!
It seems the article was published in 2017, but adding that as a suffix to the submission title would look awkward, I suppose.
> "2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence."
Assuming he (and the rest of us) are still around in 7 years, we should be able to congratulate him on being right, or criticise him for not being even close.
I think that a couple more advances like GPT-3 that are focused on conversational interaction would be enough to get us there. Ironically, if E2E encryption for chat apps weren't so common, companies like Facebook and Google would probably have enough data for training such an AI already.
The missing step, though, is probably the ability for an AI to model the world based on input it receives. If you tell an AI that you're an only child, and then a minute later you talk about meeting your brother for lunch tomorrow, it won't pick you up on your inconsistency, whereas a human probably would, because they build a world model from the facts they read and notice the contradiction.
I'm not sure how to train an AI to build world models, but perhaps a manually created corpus of "common sense" could be used to bootstrap some sort of adversarial machine learning process fed with untagged data. That's probably even harder than it sounds, but presumably once someone comes up with some clever way to achieve it, everyone will say it's just applying a simple rule and a lot of statistics, so there's no real intelligence in the AI's conversations.
> "2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence."
Assuming he (and the rest of us) are still around in 7 years, we should be able to congratulate him on being right, or criticise him for not being even close.
I think that a couple more advances like GPT-3 that are focused on conversational interaction would be enough to get us there. Ironically, if E2E encryption for chat apps weren't so common, companies like Facebook and Google would probably have enough data for training such an AI already.
The missing step, though, is probably the ability for an AI to model the world based on input it receives. If you tell an AI that you're an only child, and then a minute later you talk about meeting your brother for lunch tomorrow, it won't pick you up on your inconsistency, whereas a human probably would, because they build a world model from the facts they read and notice the contradiction.
I'm not sure how to train an AI to build world models, but perhaps a manually created corpus of "common sense" could be used to bootstrap some sort of adversarial machine learning process fed with untagged data. That's probably even harder than it sounds, but presumably once someone comes up with some clever way to achieve it, everyone will say it's just applying a simple rule and a lot of statistics, so there's no real intelligence in the AI's conversations.
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Conveniently he will be dead by then, so nothing lost publishing this prediction.
person talking about writing on wall fails to see writing on wall(climate catastrophe)
For what it's worth, Kurzweil's position is that his beloved exponential curves apply perfectly well to renewable and battery technology (price/deployment) so we'll have more than enough energy to solve the problem soon.
I don't know whether there are/aren't any bottlenecks or ceilings that he's not considering, but it would be strange if the exponential curves broke down just before they reached the scale needed to address climate change.
I don't know whether there are/aren't any bottlenecks or ceilings that he's not considering, but it would be strange if the exponential curves broke down just before they reached the scale needed to address climate change.
Kurzweil would be 97 old by 2045. In the meantime Kurzweil tries desperately to live until Singularity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Health_and_aging
>... "250 supplements, eight to 10 glasses of alkaline water and 10 cups of green tea" every day and drinking several glasses of red wine a week in an effort to "reprogram" his biochemistry.[47] By 2008, he had reduced the number of supplement pills to 150.[25] By 2015 Kurzweil further reduced his daily pill regimen down to 100 pills.