Only essential services to operate from midnight(newsfirst.lk)
newsfirst.lk
Only essential services to operate from midnight
https://www.newsfirst.lk/2022/06/27/breaking-only-essential-services-to-operate-from-midnight-27-cpc-will-only-issue-fuel-for-essential-services/
76 comments
Is there a good write up of how Sri Lanka got to here? I wonder what the non-obvious lessons here are..
How is this country able to host Cricket series while all of this is happening?
Needs a (Sri Lanka) tag or something.
The domain name specified next to the title has a '.lk' TLD.
And we know all ccTLDs are accurate, like how .tv always means the site is owned by people from Tuvalu.
Very not relevant to the case in question, in which the TLD follows the norm: it is the title of a local paper.
The person I'm replying to said that people here ought to know what country a site is relevant to based on the ccTLD. My point is that ccTLDs get used for all kinds of reasons, most of them quite irrelevant to the country they've ostensibly been assigned to.
> said
No, that is not what I said. I said (there implicitly and concisely, then explicitly nearby) that in this occasion and context - national news website issuing a title that implies "in this Country" - the TLD was revealing and will probably in general be revealing. This reasoning is of course not valid in general for other cases.
In Bayesian terms, had the TLD been '.tv' the chances of the subject being Tuvalu would have increased only slightly, yet with other multipliers set as high given such a title.
No, that is not what I said. I said (there implicitly and concisely, then explicitly nearby) that in this occasion and context - national news website issuing a title that implies "in this Country" - the TLD was revealing and will probably in general be revealing. This reasoning is of course not valid in general for other cases.
In Bayesian terms, had the TLD been '.tv' the chances of the subject being Tuvalu would have increased only slightly, yet with other multipliers set as high given such a title.
Which I would bet most to the HN audience isn't familiar with.
We're all part of today's lucky 10,000!
> HN audience
The audience that by definition would go "What is that? Mh! Nice to know!".
The audience that by definition would go "What is that? Mh! Nice to know!".
Technically true and also unhelpful.
Protonmail, a Swiss company, uses a Montenegro TLD. TLD isn't a good geolocator.
> TLD isn't a good geolocator
Yes. ...In general. Specifically, this one is a title that comes from a news company with TLD consistent to it. Had it been reported by The Guardian or the NYT, they would have titled it differently.
Yes. ...In general. Specifically, this one is a title that comes from a news company with TLD consistent to it. Had it been reported by The Guardian or the NYT, they would have titled it differently.
Yea I had to read it first to figure it out, so now I know and I’m informed about another nation…
Edit: urgh I know it’s a shit comment, but frankly I’m so disheartened with seeing another country go down it’s just depressing
Edit: urgh I know it’s a shit comment, but frankly I’m so disheartened with seeing another country go down it’s just depressing
To the best of my past information, the immediately preceding government seeked raising consensus through suicidal tax cuts. Given the widespread trend in """live-for-the-day""" politics, another example but little new (dramatically or farcically).
Edit: it is one case in which the following appears exceptionally justifiable:
https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/sri-lanka-sends-2-ministers-...
> Sri Lanka is sending two government ministers to Russia to negotiate for fuel - one of the necessities nearly exhausted amid the Indian Ocean island nation’s economic collapse. // The development comes as Washington and its allies aim to cut off energy imports from Russia in line with sanctions over its war on Ukraine. Since the invasion in late February, global oil prices have skyrocketed, sparking a number of countries to seek out Russian crude, which is being offered at a steep discount
Edit: it is one case in which the following appears exceptionally justifiable:
https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/sri-lanka-sends-2-ministers-...
> Sri Lanka is sending two government ministers to Russia to negotiate for fuel - one of the necessities nearly exhausted amid the Indian Ocean island nation’s economic collapse. // The development comes as Washington and its allies aim to cut off energy imports from Russia in line with sanctions over its war on Ukraine. Since the invasion in late February, global oil prices have skyrocketed, sparking a number of countries to seek out Russian crude, which is being offered at a steep discount
I’d say the same for other countries as well
Some context: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/26/asia/sri-lanka-fuel-suppl...
The country is already $700M in debt, has no cash reserves to pay for imports, credit by national banks being refused.
The country is already $700M in debt, has no cash reserves to pay for imports, credit by national banks being refused.
I think its interesting, and maybe valuable, to see that actual number. From another front page post today: its roughly the same amount of debt Voyager issued to Three Arrow Capital, who just defaulted. That's kind of the scale we're talking about, and the context that's necessary when the top comment on this page is someone linking an article titled "the end of the world is just beginning"; that yes, it sucks for Sri Lanka, and yes, there are some serious global issues right now that we need to continue to work toward remediating, but also: its very possible most people reading this comment had no idea what I was talking about when I said "three arrow capital and voyager". The scale between a million dollar problem and a global problem is incomprehensible, and that scale is important to consider before jumping straight to doom and gloom.
It does suck for Sri Lanka. But; we can't solve every problem, and thus worrying about them wastes valuable time and energy that is better spent solving our problems. Secure your oxygen mask before helping others.
Similarly, I think its negligent and borderline misinformation that the title of this post doesn't include the location.
It does suck for Sri Lanka. But; we can't solve every problem, and thus worrying about them wastes valuable time and energy that is better spent solving our problems. Secure your oxygen mask before helping others.
Similarly, I think its negligent and borderline misinformation that the title of this post doesn't include the location.
Now let's just wait for the African food crisis caused by Putin's naval blockade and the Russian army PGMs falling on grain storage. It will be an interesting year.
Sri Lanka is already having a food crisis, basically because they elected a government of hippies who decided to convert the country to organic farming by banning fertilizer use, so all their crops failed.
They did that, but others have pointed out that it wasn't so much to be green as it was to be curb imports. I actually think the strategy could have worked much better, but it would have had to be phased in over a long time and not in the middle of the planting season.
Before banning fertilizers, they were already importing 7% of their rice needs.
https://srilankabrief.org/what-sri-lanka-needs-is-not-bannin...
https://srilankabrief.org/what-sri-lanka-needs-is-not-bannin...
Putin is happy to sell grain (even ukrainian grain) to african countries.
You don't get to simultaneously claim it's putin causing the lack of grain, while complaining about him selling grain.
You don't get to simultaneously claim it's putin causing the lack of grain, while complaining about him selling grain.
I mean yes, tiny bits from the occupied territories which lost probably over 80% of their economic output (people are boiling water from puddles in Mariupol, do you think they will have a good harvest around there). In other areas they do use various types of PGMs to target foodstuff storage, as well as blockading the port in Odessa.
Sorry, but this is an attempt to cause another wave of people sinking on their way from Africa somewhere in the Mediterranean on crappy boats. That will surely make western EU governments feel the pressure.
Sorry, but this is an attempt to cause another wave of people sinking on their way from Africa somewhere in the Mediterranean on crappy boats. That will surely make western EU governments feel the pressure.
That would seem reasonable if he hasn’t invaded a country that happens to one of the largest grain exporters, and thus increased the price to a level that’s to high for poor countries.
I've been reading The End of The World is Just the Beginning https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalizatio... I hope he is wrong about globalization falling apart, but articles like this are right out of his book.
So far it seems like we're doing the "worst of both worlds" approach, where trade becomes crazy expensive and we don't build domestic capacity and global oil falls apart and we don't make up for it at home with increased capacity or export restrictions. We're in a situation where the US neither produces its own ships nor lets foreign-owned ships move cargo between US ports. Frankly I think Zeihan's biggest flaw, other than absurd simplification of complex industries, is that he's far too optimistic about the ability of countries, particularly the US, to act even remotely in their own best interests. Political decisions aren't being made according to what someone (right or wrong) thinks will benefit us; they're being made on the basis of validating our personal socio-political identities. If X is associated with your party then you push for X whether or not X is obviously suicidal. Scoring points off the opposition has become more important than survival.
My understanding is that the US President (currently Biden) can unilaterally ban oil exports and that this would immediately drop US oil prices to $70-80/barrel and spike global oil prices by 30%+. I wonder how bad domestic gas prices would need to be before this happens because it definitely feels like it would be a permanent nail in the coffin of energy globalization.
It would certainly screw over US allies but it wouldn't do that much good for domestic prices because domestic refineries aren't built to use light/sweet American oil. Domestic production would collapse as domestic oil sat unusable for months. What we need is taxes/regulations to force the building of refineries to process domestic crude.
Hold on, I'm in Canada, and the story here, is that we don't have domestic refineries, we get gas from US ones, now I hear you guys are told the you don't have domestic refineries too?!
What, is everyone told this???
What, is everyone told this???
It’s all rented from a refinery in Virginia called us-east-1.
The commenter your replying to is talking about "sweet" oil. According to this adage, US refineries are setup to process sour oil but in the US we drill for sweet oil. As a result we need to export sweet oil and import sour oil.
I've heard from one person, who delivers oil, that our refineries are able to switch relatively easily. So, I'm unsure what the whole story is, but that's what the other comment was referring to. We definitely do refining in the US and there are several refineries near me.
I've heard from one person, who delivers oil, that our refineries are able to switch relatively easily. So, I'm unsure what the whole story is, but that's what the other comment was referring to. We definitely do refining in the US and there are several refineries near me.
If your refineries can process cheap sour oil, they can easily be repurposed into processing expensive sweet oil.
But why would you do that, instead of selling the expensive oil and buying some cheap one back?
But why would you do that, instead of selling the expensive oil and buying some cheap one back?
I'm sure the story is, "Tell em anything just keep the profits high".
We have plenty of refineries tuned for all kinds of crude. The vast majority of US crude gets refined here, and exported as refined products.
That's not to say the industry wouldn't go belly up from suddenly having a bunch of unused, expensive oil refineries, but our ability to refine US oil wouldn't be in peril from a lack of refineries.
That's not to say the industry wouldn't go belly up from suddenly having a bunch of unused, expensive oil refineries, but our ability to refine US oil wouldn't be in peril from a lack of refineries.
>force the building of refineries to process domestic crude.
Who would want to build a refinery when the current President has stated he wants to shut down the fossil fuel industry?
Who would want to build a refinery when the current President has stated he wants to shut down the fossil fuel industry?
It would be nice to first try getting domestic oil production back up to 2019 levels.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...
> My understanding is that the US President (currently Biden) can unilaterally ban oil exports and that this would immediately drop US oil prices to $70-80/barrel and spike global oil prices by 30%+. I wonder how bad domestic gas prices would need to be before this happens because it definitely feels like it would be a permanent nail in the coffin of energy globalization.
There is a big problem with banning US oil exports. Oil is priced in US dollars and this only works if the US continues to be a global political player. If the US stops exports, the price of oil in dollars will rise so much that most other countries will have no choice but to start importing from Russia again - and in a currency that is not US dollars.
Overnight, the US will experience rapid inflation due to all the printed dollars losing value for the rest of the world.
There is a big problem with banning US oil exports. Oil is priced in US dollars and this only works if the US continues to be a global political player. If the US stops exports, the price of oil in dollars will rise so much that most other countries will have no choice but to start importing from Russia again - and in a currency that is not US dollars.
Overnight, the US will experience rapid inflation due to all the printed dollars losing value for the rest of the world.
So the rest of the world goes into recession, so that drags down the US with it. And/or low prices lead to low investment, both in to new oil and alternative energy thus dooming the industry long term while giving the rest of the world a head start in future technologies. And/or the rest of the world gets pissed off, imposes their own sanctions, look to more reliable allies, look to different reserve currencies etc etc etc.
I didn't have the patience to finish The Fourth Turning [1], but it's arguing that the US has been working on 80 year major cycles for a long time. I like "end of a cycle" better than "end of the world." :) I'd be interested to know if there are related studies outside the US.
Something I didn't learn about until recently [2] was Glocalization. Wikipedia [3] says it's been around since the 80s. Perhaps now's a good time to bring it out again.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...
2. https://drpippa.substack.com/p/glocalization
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glocalization
Something I didn't learn about until recently [2] was Glocalization. Wikipedia [3] says it's been around since the 80s. Perhaps now's a good time to bring it out again.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...
2. https://drpippa.substack.com/p/glocalization
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glocalization
I'm not that familiar with the Fourth Turning and this also originates from the US, but I did find it quite helpful when considering where things are, have been and might be going and how the US is in a cycle along with other nations:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
I'd also not heard of Glocalization, but it reminds me of a couple of topics that are covered in Fritjof Capra's Systems View of Life book (also a course), around emergent behaviour in complex systems and how this competes with top down command and control ideas (or in organisations as the formal and informal networks).
I'd also not heard of Glocalization, but it reminds me of a couple of topics that are covered in Fritjof Capra's Systems View of Life book (also a course), around emergent behaviour in complex systems and how this competes with top down command and control ideas (or in organisations as the formal and informal networks).
I read that and found it fascinating. Everything doesn't fit as neatly into the 80 year cycles as they might like, but I think they acknowledge that.
[deleted]
In this case it seems more like a country that is severely mismanaged is now falling apart completely. I feel for the people in it, but this is not indicative of the real state of the world.
On the other side, what opportunities exist for investors to invest in the situation in Sri Lanka? Is there any easy way, or just boots on ground? What about humanitarian or green-vesting?
It is an old British colony with no money, so cheap outsourcing, especially if you are willing/able to pay in USD.
There are a lot of issues that led to the failure. I don't think investors can make a difference until they get better leaders to make the necessary changes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5zxYDHwf-Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5zxYDHwf-Y
This is for the country of Sri Lanka. The headline should (IMHO) have reflected this, because it is otherwise click bait.
I am aware there is a .lk domain, but there are thousands of domains out there and I don't think most people would know it of hand.
I am aware there is a .lk domain, but there are thousands of domains out there and I don't think most people would know it of hand.
We just moved our little family of four from Sri Lanka where we planned to make a home. My wife is Sri Lankan but has not lived there in the last 10 years. It was a rough decision because her family is still there. The situation on the ground is "stable" but food, medicines and of course fuel are becoming scarce. The crazy part is that the government seems to have no real plan but refuses to step down even though the public clearly wants them to.
Just curious, is there another party or group waiting in the wings that does have a plan - and the ability - to fix this?
I've seen op-eds and articles in western media, and a few in EMEA media, that all talk about sweeping changes and reforms but they all seem like the usual hand-waving or 'easier said than done' articles, and not really a plan for how to get there.
My (very limited) understanding is that the current government has been in power less than a year(?), and so must have inherited a lot of these issues.
Anyone seen any other articles on this that have more concrete information?
I've seen op-eds and articles in western media, and a few in EMEA media, that all talk about sweeping changes and reforms but they all seem like the usual hand-waving or 'easier said than done' articles, and not really a plan for how to get there.
My (very limited) understanding is that the current government has been in power less than a year(?), and so must have inherited a lot of these issues.
Anyone seen any other articles on this that have more concrete information?
The current government is pretty much the same faces that has been in power for over a decade.
The current president "Gotabaya Rajapaksha" is the Brother of "Mahinda Rajapaksha" who was the president before him.
When Mahinda Rajapaksha was in power, Gotabaya was the defence minister.
When Gotabaya was recently elected the president, Mahainda was the Prime-minister.
In Sri Lanka it doesn't matter which party you elect as the government, ministers jump from one party to the other always, they fight and throw chairs at each other in the parliament and on stages, but the very same day they will all meet and have a party with each-other. (I wish I was exaggerating)
there was a different government before Gotabaya was president and After Mahinda was president. But, it was basically the same old culprits.
The current president "Gotabaya Rajapaksha" is the Brother of "Mahinda Rajapaksha" who was the president before him.
When Mahinda Rajapaksha was in power, Gotabaya was the defence minister.
When Gotabaya was recently elected the president, Mahainda was the Prime-minister.
In Sri Lanka it doesn't matter which party you elect as the government, ministers jump from one party to the other always, they fight and throw chairs at each other in the parliament and on stages, but the very same day they will all meet and have a party with each-other. (I wish I was exaggerating)
there was a different government before Gotabaya was president and After Mahinda was president. But, it was basically the same old culprits.
Didn't the previous government step down?
It is so sad to watch a nation slow walk down such a well worn and tragic path.
Bad government policies, and over spending creating inflation and high prices for goods, with a response of price controls to control the prices, which results in even fewer goods available, then government rationing because the goods aren't available, further reducing ability to produce anything of value...
And it doesn't have to be this way! At each stage, you could just not do the next step in the spiral. Thing would be bad for a bit, but you wouldn't bring the nation to poverty.
Bad government policies, and over spending creating inflation and high prices for goods, with a response of price controls to control the prices, which results in even fewer goods available, then government rationing because the goods aren't available, further reducing ability to produce anything of value...
And it doesn't have to be this way! At each stage, you could just not do the next step in the spiral. Thing would be bad for a bit, but you wouldn't bring the nation to poverty.
Sad thing is I didn't know what country we were talking about until I clicked into the article after reading your comment, because it can describe a few others than just Sri Lanka.
I'm surprised how few people know all the ISO-3166-alpha-2 codes. LK is obviously Sri Lanka :-)
(Although this has been headline news for a few days in the mainstream press[1], which helps.)
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/srilanka
(Although this has been headline news for a few days in the mainstream press[1], which helps.)
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/srilanka
I know of the codes, but I couldn't have told you .lk was Sri Lanka off the top of my head, nor would I necessarily assume that because the site linked to is a Sri Lankan site, it's talking about Sri Lanka.
RC_ITR(1)
There's a good video from Polymatter on YouTube that explains how that situation came to be: https://youtu.be/W5zxYDHwf-Y
This is great, my thanks!
The Rajapaksha family helped end a 30 year civil war, it was a bloody horrific war, however as this was the most important issue for most Sri Lankans at the time, helping end this meant the Rajapaksha's were seen as the saviors,they were at the time considered kings, people used to cry in joy when they see them, they were that loved and celebrated within the country.
This gave them a lot of power and popularity, anyone with a Rajapaksha name ran for all types of government positions, and most of them actually won, people accepted them with open arms. At the same time with the power the Rajapaksha's had they were able to promote their family members, some of them who didn't even have a highschool degree in to high ranking positions within government institutions.
So, half of the family was elected by the people, the rest was promoted due to nepotism.
What happened was a decade worth of corruption, a family that didn't have much, some of whom worked as gas pump operators in the US (the current president) suddenly became billionaires. One of the main culprits was an animal named Basil Rajapaksha, he was so corrupt people called him "Mr 10%" because if any construction or any type of project were to start, you have to allocate 10% of the profits and the initial investment to Basil rajapaksha.
If I were to write all the corruption, human rights violations and the day light robberies committed by the rajapuksha family we would be here all day.
Sri Lanka is a majority Buddhist country, in Buddhism we are taught of Karma, and how what you do to others will one day return back to you. And as a Sri Lankan this is what I feel is happening to us now. The sinhalese majority of Sri lanka, killed, looted and raped Tamil people which led to the 30+ year civil war, and we encouraged and looked the otherway when the rajapaksha family & co killed, raped and looted the Tamil population in the name of stopping the war. We looked the other way when they destroyed someone else's future because it was easier than finding a sustainable solution.
If I manage to survive this and one day have children, this is all I would tell them, "If you see an injustice, speak up, do something about it, because otherwise, they will come for you and you will be all alone".