Unemployment falls to 3.5% in Sept, payrolls rise by 263K, job market strong(cnbc.com)
cnbc.com
Unemployment falls to 3.5% in Sept, payrolls rise by 263K, job market strong
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/jobs-report-september-2022.html
17 comments
For now. Inflation is also still rising, so I wonder what the fed will do next?
I think they will raise rates until we get into a severe recession and employers cease hiring and start firing. The feds only real knob is controlling rates and borrowing.
Central bank go rrrrrrrbbbbb! (That’s brrr in reverse).
Rates are going to keep increasing until inflation drops or the economy shows signs of a big slowdown.
Rates are going to keep increasing until inflation drops or the economy shows signs of a big slowdown.
Inflation and low unemployment often go hand in hand. Low unemployment (below 4%) comes from employers raising wages, and prices.
So as far as the Fed is concerned, they have the same solution to both: raise interest rates. That will reduce the amount of money sloshing around the system, making it harder to hire and reducing demand for stuff. That raises unemployment and lowers inflation.
At least, such is the zero-dimensional theory. Actual economic modeling is more complex. Inflation is also high due to the war in Ukraine (reducing energy supplies) and COVID (which is still backing up supply chains).
Still, it all points in the same direction: raising interest rates. Which they should have done 10 years ago, to be honest, but once again the Fed failed to take away the punch bowl and the party rolled on. The very high inflation we see now is a consequence of that.
So as far as the Fed is concerned, they have the same solution to both: raise interest rates. That will reduce the amount of money sloshing around the system, making it harder to hire and reducing demand for stuff. That raises unemployment and lowers inflation.
At least, such is the zero-dimensional theory. Actual economic modeling is more complex. Inflation is also high due to the war in Ukraine (reducing energy supplies) and COVID (which is still backing up supply chains).
Still, it all points in the same direction: raising interest rates. Which they should have done 10 years ago, to be honest, but once again the Fed failed to take away the punch bowl and the party rolled on. The very high inflation we see now is a consequence of that.
Raise baby, raise.
They will do whatever it takes to stop the wage growth spiral
I'm always curious to see stats on changes in employment. Here are the types of questions I'd like to answer:
- How many of those jobs are below the poverty line, especially considering recent inflation?
- How many of them come with decent medical/dental benefits?
- How many of them offer a 401k retirement fund?
- How does the median income compare to previous times unemployment was at 3.5%, over the last 30 years?
- How as the distribution of wealth changed in the last 10-20 years?
- Changes in credit card debt
- Changes in debt-to-income ratios
- Are the masses getting richer or poorer?
- Is the US getting richer or poorer?
etc...
- How many of those jobs are below the poverty line, especially considering recent inflation?
- How many of them come with decent medical/dental benefits?
- How many of them offer a 401k retirement fund?
- How does the median income compare to previous times unemployment was at 3.5%, over the last 30 years?
- How as the distribution of wealth changed in the last 10-20 years?
- Changes in credit card debt
- Changes in debt-to-income ratios
- Are the masses getting richer or poorer?
- Is the US getting richer or poorer?
etc...
Many of the answers are in the report.
This comes up every time unemployment numbers come up. I remember a thread a year ago - “oh, it’s just multiple people doing jobs like Uber”.
Then someone read the report and replied “no, actually the number of people with more than one job dropped”.
It would be more interesting and spur a more in depth discussion if you dug into the report and answer some of the criticisms (valid criticisms) you pointed out.
Edit: softened tone
This comes up every time unemployment numbers come up. I remember a thread a year ago - “oh, it’s just multiple people doing jobs like Uber”.
Then someone read the report and replied “no, actually the number of people with more than one job dropped”.
It would be more interesting and spur a more in depth discussion if you dug into the report and answer some of the criticisms (valid criticisms) you pointed out.
Edit: softened tone
> Many of the answers are in the report. Did you read it?
You know what would be an interesting post? If you answered the questions posed by /u/xedrac.
You know what would be an interesting post? If you answered the questions posed by /u/xedrac.
These are all good questions, looking forward to hearing what you find out!
The Fed hates this one incredible secret...
Yet tech companies are implementing layoffs left, right, and center. .com bubble 2.0?
Not necessarily, it’s a good opportunity to trim the fat without having to explain yourself, and a way to extend your runway for what will certainly be an interesting fundraising environment for the next few quarters.
Can't wait to see the revisions in all the economic data after the US Midterms.
The EIA in particular has given up a lot of its reputation and credibility this year.
The EIA in particular has given up a lot of its reputation and credibility this year.