US EV goals will require up to $127B to install 28M chargers by 2030: NREL(utilitydive.com)
utilitydive.com
US EV goals will require up to $127B to install 28M chargers by 2030: NREL
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electric-vehicle-ev-aspirations-will-require-rapid-charging-buildou-NREL/684940/
27 comments
For comparison, Americans spend about $560B/year on fuel.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflat...
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflat...
It would probably be more reasonable to compare the cost of building gas stations
Nah, because the cost of electricity is so much lower (half the cost per mile), you pay the charging investment upfront, buying lower go forward fuel costs for the US fleet (and more drivers switch to EVs when they won’t have range anxiety or concern charging infra won’t be where they need it). Think national mobility energy infra total cost of ownership. You’re also taking off the road, rail, and sea energy transport (something like 40% of commercial ocean shipping is moving energy around, and there are 100k tanker trucks delivering fuel to fuel stations in the US [1]).
It’s also energy dollars that now stay in the US versus whatever portion would’ve gone to OPEC or another foreign petroleum seller (although a fraction of those dollars might make their way to foreign investors in US generation).
The gains happen faster if your target gasoline superusers first [2] [3].
TLDR you’re paying to spin the flywheel up.
[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-...
[2] https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/
[3] https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-G...
It’s also energy dollars that now stay in the US versus whatever portion would’ve gone to OPEC or another foreign petroleum seller (although a fraction of those dollars might make their way to foreign investors in US generation).
The gains happen faster if your target gasoline superusers first [2] [3].
TLDR you’re paying to spin the flywheel up.
[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-...
[2] https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/
[3] https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-G...
Are the local road taxes that EV chargers pay equivalent to gas? I don't own an EV, so I don't know. If EV doesn't include the same taxes then it seems like the majority of the cost benefits of owning an EV amount to simply avoiding taxes for roads, schools, etc.
Quick google search found: https://www.cbs8.com/article/traffic/gas-prices/gap-between-...
Which yields:
1. 54 cents in state excise tax: among the highest in the nation
2. 18.4 cents in federal excise tax
3. 23 cents for California's cap-and-trade program to lower greenhouse gas emissions
4. 18 cents for the state's low-carbon fuel programs
5. 2 cents for underground gas storage fees
6. An average of 3.7% in state and local sales taxes
Removing 3, 4, and 5 seems like a pretty decent gain. But the others are pretty hefty. Unsure how these are added into EVs?
Quick google search found: https://www.cbs8.com/article/traffic/gas-prices/gap-between-...
Which yields:
1. 54 cents in state excise tax: among the highest in the nation
2. 18.4 cents in federal excise tax
3. 23 cents for California's cap-and-trade program to lower greenhouse gas emissions
4. 18 cents for the state's low-carbon fuel programs
5. 2 cents for underground gas storage fees
6. An average of 3.7% in state and local sales taxes
Removing 3, 4, and 5 seems like a pretty decent gain. But the others are pretty hefty. Unsure how these are added into EVs?
Taxes are paid through an extra registration fee. Cost saving comes from lower running costs.
https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/california-starts-charging-ev...
https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/california-starts-charging-ev...
Looking at the table above and your linked article the numbers don't add up. My gas guzzler has an 18 gallon tank. Looking at the taxes we see:
1. CA State Tax - $9.72
2. Fed. Excise - $3.31
6. Local Taxes - ($2.00/gal * .037) - $1.33
Which adds up to $14.36 in taxes every time I pay for a full tank. I use about a tank a week. So, I buy 52 tanks of gas a year. This works out to $746.72. I also pay car registration of ~$300 a year.
From the article you're only paying a one-time fee of $100. The registration fee is also capped $175 first year. My total tax burden (gas taxes + reg) is $1,046.72 and yours is only $275 for the first year, $175 after.
I intentionally left out the low carbon programs in my calculation to make a fair comparison. The taxes above that are paid are required to fund roads, schools, etc. None of which you're paying on your EV. You're saving $871.72 from not paying for these things.
Also, I asked chat GPT how much it costs to charge an electric vehicle at home. It gave me the formula: 60 kWh x $0.20/kWh = $12. So this would be $624/year. So assuming gas w/o taxes @ $2/gal my gas guzzler is costing me $1872 a year. $1248 more than your EV. This is some good cost savings.
So including the taxes above you are not paying and your cheaper charge rate, your total cost savings is around $2,119.72. This is a pretty decent cost savings.
So you're correct, EV vs. gas is definitely cheaper. But, the point that I'm making is that nearly 40% of your cost savings accrues from not paying taxes on necessary things like roads and schools. The cost effectiveness of EV's has more to do with tax policy than the underlying efficiency gains technology. Ideally they will become cheaper over time, but the significant cost of taxes to fund the government programs we need is going to remain.
1. CA State Tax - $9.72
2. Fed. Excise - $3.31
6. Local Taxes - ($2.00/gal * .037) - $1.33
Which adds up to $14.36 in taxes every time I pay for a full tank. I use about a tank a week. So, I buy 52 tanks of gas a year. This works out to $746.72. I also pay car registration of ~$300 a year.
From the article you're only paying a one-time fee of $100. The registration fee is also capped $175 first year. My total tax burden (gas taxes + reg) is $1,046.72 and yours is only $275 for the first year, $175 after.
I intentionally left out the low carbon programs in my calculation to make a fair comparison. The taxes above that are paid are required to fund roads, schools, etc. None of which you're paying on your EV. You're saving $871.72 from not paying for these things.
Also, I asked chat GPT how much it costs to charge an electric vehicle at home. It gave me the formula: 60 kWh x $0.20/kWh = $12. So this would be $624/year. So assuming gas w/o taxes @ $2/gal my gas guzzler is costing me $1872 a year. $1248 more than your EV. This is some good cost savings.
So including the taxes above you are not paying and your cheaper charge rate, your total cost savings is around $2,119.72. This is a pretty decent cost savings.
So you're correct, EV vs. gas is definitely cheaper. But, the point that I'm making is that nearly 40% of your cost savings accrues from not paying taxes on necessary things like roads and schools. The cost effectiveness of EV's has more to do with tax policy than the underlying efficiency gains technology. Ideally they will become cheaper over time, but the significant cost of taxes to fund the government programs we need is going to remain.
The chargers would be artificially cheaper though. The land for the gas stations has already been acquired, they've been hooked up to utilities. Installing chargers at them will be a fraction of the cost of originally building them out.
$127B on chargers...
China can build high speed rail at $20M per mile. If we actually built the lines instead of just political graft we could build 6350 miles of high speed rail for that price. That is coast to coast rail 2.5 times.
EVs also increase road wear and tear by a large factor, since they are so heavy. Trains have much lower wear and tear maintenance costs.
If you couple this with some densification by removing zoning, the health savings alone from people walking more would pay for high speed rail.
But no we will build 28M electric chargers for cars instead.
China can build high speed rail at $20M per mile. If we actually built the lines instead of just political graft we could build 6350 miles of high speed rail for that price. That is coast to coast rail 2.5 times.
EVs also increase road wear and tear by a large factor, since they are so heavy. Trains have much lower wear and tear maintenance costs.
If you couple this with some densification by removing zoning, the health savings alone from people walking more would pay for high speed rail.
But no we will build 28M electric chargers for cars instead.
Why one and not the other? You think china isn't building tons of EV chargers themselves too? High speed rail is nice and all but realistically you're needing to solve the issue of people commuting to work or commuting around town. High speed rail doesn't solve that really at all. You need local transit solutions.
Trains can be used for local transit solutions also.
In some situations, yes. In the large majority of the US: no, they can't. Not without significant policy changes that will take decades to accomplish. We're stuck with cars whether you like it or not, so best to optimize within the constraints we have.
For a comparable figure, in 2022, Congress approved $113B in aid to Ukraine.
$4,500 per charger+install isn't too bad, considering the material and labor costs.
A fraction of what it will cost to clean up all of the gas pumps slowly leeching into the soil.
> require 26.8 million Level 1 and Level 2 ports at single-family homes, apartments and other locations
That’s the counts for Level 1 and 2 chargers. Level 1 chargers are “a regular outlet and a $150 EVSE”. Level 2 is “a larger outlet/breaker and a $500-750 EVSE”.
The projected $72B for that portion seems crazy high to me to be honest.
That’s the counts for Level 1 and 2 chargers. Level 1 chargers are “a regular outlet and a $150 EVSE”. Level 2 is “a larger outlet/breaker and a $500-750 EVSE”.
The projected $72B for that portion seems crazy high to me to be honest.
There could be additional electrical, cement, and other work required beyond just mounting the charger. Not to mention the planning and permit process.
Also, labor is expensive these days. It's not going to be a single person doing the entire install alone.
This is the standard quo in any first tier country today.
Also, labor is expensive these days. It's not going to be a single person doing the entire install alone.
This is the standard quo in any first tier country today.
Basically all the installs in single-family homes will be zero or one electrician. (Zero if the install is “plug in the L1 charger from Amazon to the existing outlet in the garage”) That will drag the average down quite a bit.
The downtown ones will easily soak up all excess resources allocated.
:-/
:-/
That's only $21B a year until 2030. Pretty cheap, considering you can wipe a good chunk of carbon emissions and get cleaner air in the bargain. Plus less dependency on foreign energy sources.
The Apollo space program cost $200B (in today's dollars)
Does that count as a plug-in hybrid vehicle?
This is good opportunity for do business on chargers or on installation.
So for right person, right question, how to defend investments.
So for right person, right question, how to defend investments.
i think that for such a noble cause we can easily afford two weeks of fed money printing
The miracle of capitalism is that if there's a mass demand for something, it somehow just appears. I'm sure private investors can pony up $127 billion within a few years if there's profit to be made.
For public charging they estimate that current commitments are on track:
> Existing announcements put the United States on a path to meet 2030 investment needs. This report estimates that a $31–$55-billion cumulative capital investment in publicly accessible charging infrastructure is necessary to support a mid-adoption scenario of 33 million PEVs on the road by 2030. As of March 2023, we estimate $23.7 billion of capital has been announced for publicly accessible light-duty PEV charging infrastructure through the end of the decade,8 including from private firms, the public sector (including federal, state, and local governments), and electric utilities.