Adding clean energy to the US power grid just got a lot easier(theverge.com)
theverge.com
Adding clean energy to the US power grid just got a lot easier
https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/28/23811031/ferc-renewable-energy-solar-wind-project-interconnection-electricity-grid
18 comments
I worry about those interconnections and the risk of cascading failures. I know just enough about it to worry that the problem might be order NP, and a directive to go faster when the modeling, aka software, just can't, could be disastrous. Can someone who knows better reassure me?
One thing I think is notable. Solar and wind installations performance tends to just degrade instead of going 100% offline like traditional plants. And batteries greatly improve grid reliability. I suspect they can add power to the grid faster than breakers will trip.
Also we're working towards a system where demand can be controlled. Think your electric car stops charging or your air conditioner kicks off for 10 minutes when there is a problem.
Also we're working towards a system where demand can be controlled. Think your electric car stops charging or your air conditioner kicks off for 10 minutes when there is a problem.
Great point, How much battery capacity and energy the utility will require (big expense for project proponent they have to inevitably recover from ratepayers) for solar or wind farms is another Aspect that has to be studied
What I've read and seems to be backed up by how fast utility batteries are being installed is the drop in price of batteries means that suddenly the payback period for batteries is a couple of years.
Batteries exist in a different economic regime than rate payers. Where the price per megawatt varies by 2X or more. Which makes it easier for batteries to make money be arbitrage. As in buy power at 10am for $40/MWH, sell it at 7pm the same day for $80/MWH.
Batteries exist in a different economic regime than rate payers. Where the price per megawatt varies by 2X or more. Which makes it easier for batteries to make money be arbitrage. As in buy power at 10am for $40/MWH, sell it at 7pm the same day for $80/MWH.
My benchmark for utility scale solar is the installation in Australia that was 100MW and 129MWH and cost about 100 million
So making $40/MWH * 100 MWH/day = $4000 per day * 365 day/yr = 1.4 million revenue per year. Not enough to pay back $100 million.
Like you said The economics of it keep improving though Imp
So making $40/MWH * 100 MWH/day = $4000 per day * 365 day/yr = 1.4 million revenue per year. Not enough to pay back $100 million.
Like you said The economics of it keep improving though Imp
I think that thing makes money because utilities will pay though the nose for a reserve of instant on demand power.
Right, so then we are back to that cost being recovered from ratepayers.
But they're paying less for that than before. The price power commands depends a lot on how flexible the power source is. Batteries because they provide grid stabilization can charge a premium price.
More people could perform more studies in parallel but it is a pretty niche skill to be able to perform the studies
The point of the studies is to determine the upgrades required to the transmission system to ensure stability and reliability (prevent cascading failures)
The point of the studies is to determine the upgrades required to the transmission system to ensure stability and reliability (prevent cascading failures)
While it is good they are reducing bureaucracy, your point about limited transmission capacity is spot on.
From TA https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/28/23811031/ferc-renewable-e... :
> As it is now, it takes an average of five years for a new energy project to connect to the grid. There’s a huge backlog of more than 2,000 gigawatts of clean energy generation and storage that’s just waiting in line for approval. That’s about as much capacity as the nation’s existing power plants have for generating electricity today.
> [...] To clear the backlog, the new federal rule will require grid managers to assess projects in clusters instead of one at a time. They’ll also face firm deadlines and penalties for failing to finish interconnection studies on time. The new rule prioritizes projects that are the farthest along in development and also includes new requirements for project developers, like financial deposits to discourage them from proposing projects that might not pull through.
> As it is now, it takes an average of five years for a new energy project to connect to the grid. There’s a huge backlog of more than 2,000 gigawatts of clean energy generation and storage that’s just waiting in line for approval. That’s about as much capacity as the nation’s existing power plants have for generating electricity today.
> [...] To clear the backlog, the new federal rule will require grid managers to assess projects in clusters instead of one at a time. They’ll also face firm deadlines and penalties for failing to finish interconnection studies on time. The new rule prioritizes projects that are the farthest along in development and also includes new requirements for project developers, like financial deposits to discourage them from proposing projects that might not pull through.
Also from TA:
> Today, renewable energy makes up just over 20 percent of the US electricity mix. A five-year wait time isn’t going to cut it if the Biden administration wants to reach its goal of achieving a 100 percent clean power grid by 2035. Added capacity would also come in handy during sweltering heatwaves like those of this summer, when electricity demand spikes for air conditioning. Two of the nation’s largest grid operators issued alerts about potential energy shortages for that reason this week.
From "Computer simulation provides 4k scenarios for a climate turnaround" (2023) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36578412 :
> Highlights:
> • Probabilistic assessment of 4000 decarbonisation pathways with the ETSAP-TIAM.
> • Delaying the action for the 2 °C target costs similar to acting now for the 1.5 °C.
> • Demand electrification is higher in 2050 than today in all model runs.
> • Hydrogen is used in 99% of the model runs to meet the 1.5 °C target.
> Today, renewable energy makes up just over 20 percent of the US electricity mix. A five-year wait time isn’t going to cut it if the Biden administration wants to reach its goal of achieving a 100 percent clean power grid by 2035. Added capacity would also come in handy during sweltering heatwaves like those of this summer, when electricity demand spikes for air conditioning. Two of the nation’s largest grid operators issued alerts about potential energy shortages for that reason this week.
From "Computer simulation provides 4k scenarios for a climate turnaround" (2023) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36578412 :
> Highlights:
> • Probabilistic assessment of 4000 decarbonisation pathways with the ETSAP-TIAM.
> • Delaying the action for the 2 °C target costs similar to acting now for the 1.5 °C.
> • Demand electrification is higher in 2050 than today in all model runs.
> • Hydrogen is used in 99% of the model runs to meet the 1.5 °C target.
> As it is now, it takes an average of five years for a new energy project to connect to the grid.
Wow, that's just mind-boggling.
Wow, that's just mind-boggling.
It takes a high level feasibility study to determine rough costs, project proponent financing, detailed study and detailed design, procurement of custom manufactured long lead time equipment, land purchase, environmental studies and permits, construction and finally commissioning. It takes 5 years to get consultancies with the experts to do the studies and design and construction companies contracts signed and completed.
If you have the money to play
“…includes new requirements for project developers, like financial deposits…”
“…includes new requirements for project developers, like financial deposits…”
If a developer of a 300 million dollar project can’t afford $5000 to get in line for $30-$50k study to determine the requirements for a 1-50 million dollar interconnection, odds are that developer’s project is going nowhere with them anyway
The study might show that the upgrades required to inject power at a project location and maintain system stability and reliability are too costly and the project can’t proceed as proposed.
The studies are usually performed in the order that the requests are received.
Project proponents are often unaware of where on the grid the most cost effective interconnections are for a given project size.
The feedback loop between proponents and utility could be tightened up if the utility would publish a map showing available capacity or cost to upgrade vs new capacity for different locations on the grid.
That is one way the utility could meet the demand to perform the studies faster with the same number of quants.