A case for dynamic scoring of high-skilled immigration(slowboring.com)
slowboring.com
A case for dynamic scoring of high-skilled immigration
https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-serious-case-for-dynamic-scoring
200 comments
Much of the pain of H1B is due to slow processing. You can change employers, but then you’re in a weird limbo until the paperwork makes it to the top of someone’s inbox. If everything was next-day processing, it’d be more humane. Perhaps LLMs can solve this.
Tbf, many people dislike both, what they perceive as rampant immigration, and also monopolies and other such anticompetitive practices.
There are different kinds of H1B. The academic ones are less problematic.
H1B is a non-immigrant visa. They're not supposed to be here long.
No, H1-B is a "dual intent" visa, i.e. you are allowed to transition from one to a green card. Something like a TN visa is actually intended for temporary skilled workers.
The H1B terminates in a green card, after six years, quota willing. In fact, you don’t get an option in the matter. Compared with a true temporary work visa, like China’s Z visa, which can be renewed on every year indefinitely and doesn’t have any oath to permanent residency.
> The H1B terminates in a green card, after six years, quota willing. In fact, you don’t get an option in the matter.
What? Most do, because usually people want to stay. But H1B does not “terminate in a green card” and you 100% have an option in the matter (you have to sign the I485…).
What? Most do, because usually people want to stay. But H1B does not “terminate in a green card” and you 100% have an option in the matter (you have to sign the I485…).
You don’t get the option to renew an H1B more than once. If you don’t go the green card path, then what? You are going back home?
Sure if that’s what you meant, then yeah. Imho that’s a weird way to put it.
You can renew indefinitely with an approved I140, btw (typical for backlogged Indians) (not that this doesn’t suck).
You can renew indefinitely with an approved I140, btw (typical for backlogged Indians) (not that this doesn’t suck).
Lol. You can apply for a GC correct. Will you get one? Depending on where you are born you may need to wait decades (yes, decades) to get one.
If you are from India or maybe China, yes.
I want a bidding system for the H1B slots, paid not just once, but yearly by the companies which hire the H1Bs. That money should then go for scholarships to educate American citizens for these jobs. It first allows American citizens to compete, as they would be cheaper than the H1B salary (market rate) + fee, and it would provide funding for scholarships in areas which apparently aren’t being supplied by US graduates. In addition, there should be a multiplier on that fee for any company which lays off US citizens with that skill in the past N years.
This is very similar to an idea proposed by the late economist William Vickrey. He suggested having an auction for visas, and distributing the revenue generated by the auction evenly between every citizen. This would somewhat align the incentives between citizens and immigrants without introducing feel-good steps like scholarship subsidies.
Realistically, there's not very many Americans who could get become an engineer if only they had a little more scholarship money. Those Americans can mostly get loans to pay for college, then pay off their loans using all the extra money they make now that they're an engineer. If you have any empirical data that contradicts this I'd be interested in seeing it.
Realistically, there's not very many Americans who could get become an engineer if only they had a little more scholarship money. Those Americans can mostly get loans to pay for college, then pay off their loans using all the extra money they make now that they're an engineer. If you have any empirical data that contradicts this I'd be interested in seeing it.
This amounts to imposing a higher tax. One could go the Canadian route instead--i.e. grant permanent residence to high-skilled immigrants (which lets them become citizens and fully integrate), and not treat immigrants languish on temporary visas, which IMO is belies viewing immigrants (i.e. new permanent residents) with disgust, hatred, callousness, and contempt.
Also, Canada rapidly (like in one year) transitions most temporary work visa holders into permanent residents, instead of letting them languish as visa holders without basic rights for decades like the US. Imposing a higher tax based on national origin or immigration status which is quintessentially discriminatory, and IMO treats immigrants with less respect and less human dignity.
Also, Canada rapidly (like in one year) transitions most temporary work visa holders into permanent residents, instead of letting them languish as visa holders without basic rights for decades like the US. Imposing a higher tax based on national origin or immigration status which is quintessentially discriminatory, and IMO treats immigrants with less respect and less human dignity.
> This amounts to imposing a higher tax--which is discriminatory, and treats immigrants with less respect and less human dignity.
Not all discrimination is wrong. For example, the American immigration service currently discriminates against people by criminality, among many other factors. The purpose of the U.S. government is to serve and protect the American people. If that means discriminating against migrants, that is, literally, their entire raison d'etre.
Not all discrimination is wrong. For example, the American immigration service currently discriminates against people by criminality, among many other factors. The purpose of the U.S. government is to serve and protect the American people. If that means discriminating against migrants, that is, literally, their entire raison d'etre.
Do you think Canada doesn't "serve and protect the [Canadian] people"? Do you think Canada rolls out the red carpet to people with criminal backgrounds?
Canada just chooses to welcome skilled immigrants, whereas the US has an immigration prohibition. See: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/why-legal-immigration-n...
Canada also has a ranking system that picks the best immigrants with the highest scores (unlike the lotteries the US relies on).
But charging immigrants a higher tax rate is discrimination, 100%. Your comment is baseless, and entirely invalid.
Canada just chooses to welcome skilled immigrants, whereas the US has an immigration prohibition. See: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/why-legal-immigration-n...
Canada also has a ranking system that picks the best immigrants with the highest scores (unlike the lotteries the US relies on).
But charging immigrants a higher tax rate is discrimination, 100%. Your comment is baseless, and entirely invalid.
I would argue that "For the year 2022, Canada welcomed 437,180 immigrants and saw a net increase of the number of non-permanent residents estimated at 607,782."
Combined with "About 286,000 new homes are currently built each year, according to 2021 data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. But the country's housing supply is not keeping up with population growth."
Is absolutely not serving the Canadian people when their home prices are completely unaffordable to a growing number of their population. It also suppresses wages for their own skilled citizens.
I do think importing skilled immigrants is a good long term strategy for their country, but they should tone it down a notch until housing prices are better.
Combined with "About 286,000 new homes are currently built each year, according to 2021 data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. But the country's housing supply is not keeping up with population growth."
Is absolutely not serving the Canadian people when their home prices are completely unaffordable to a growing number of their population. It also suppresses wages for their own skilled citizens.
I do think importing skilled immigrants is a good long term strategy for their country, but they should tone it down a notch until housing prices are better.
The housing shortage is an issue caused by restrictions on building housing. This is supply side problem.
There is restrictive zoning laws, inordinate red tape, extremely high development charges (taxes), super long delays, NIMBYism in general, that all contribute to the Canadian housing shortage crisis.
Immigration is demand side thing. The solution to the housing crisis is to not to try to mess with demand, but to increase supply.
Whenever I look at the Reddit history of a person attacking immigration by bringing up housing, I almost invariably see comments full of racism, xenophobia, a hatred of non-European-origin people/cultures, etc.
> suppresses wages
This statement is wrong, yet abusively often repeated. North America's population went from a few million to a few hundred million in a few centuries. Wages in North America should close to zero if this statement were a true axiom.
There is restrictive zoning laws, inordinate red tape, extremely high development charges (taxes), super long delays, NIMBYism in general, that all contribute to the Canadian housing shortage crisis.
Immigration is demand side thing. The solution to the housing crisis is to not to try to mess with demand, but to increase supply.
Whenever I look at the Reddit history of a person attacking immigration by bringing up housing, I almost invariably see comments full of racism, xenophobia, a hatred of non-European-origin people/cultures, etc.
> suppresses wages
This statement is wrong, yet abusively often repeated. North America's population went from a few million to a few hundred million in a few centuries. Wages in North America should close to zero if this statement were a true axiom.
> Whenever I look at the Reddit history of a person attacking immigration by bringing up housing, I almost invariably see comments full of racism, xenophobia, a hatred of non-European-origin people/cultures, etc.
I think it is unfair to make these kind of statements. You are essentially telling the parent poster that they are racist. Perhaps your experiences have created your own kind of biases and hatred.
I agree that often times people do use secondary arguments to guise what they really mean but I think the way through that is to either refute their arguments, not to suggest they are racist.
I think it is unfair to make these kind of statements. You are essentially telling the parent poster that they are racist. Perhaps your experiences have created your own kind of biases and hatred.
I agree that often times people do use secondary arguments to guise what they really mean but I think the way through that is to either refute their arguments, not to suggest they are racist.
"The solution to the housing crisis is to not to try to mess with demand, but to increase supply."
Why? Why should we only worry about supply, especially when that's a much, much harder issue to tackle?
I live in a rural part of the US. There are no real zoning laws to speak of, red tape, high taxes, delays, NIMBYism, etc. None. Zero. Yet our house prices have also surged. My parents were able to afford 60 acres on a construction worker's (single) salary back in the 80s. My wife and I both have degrees and we could afford 15 acres with a much worse house, and that was 10 years ago. My wife's brother just bought a house for more than we spent.
It's in town, which is undesirable around here, on a regular in-town sized plot. The house is half of our home's size and needs a lot of work. Yet it's 25% more than what we paid with a much higher interest rate.
You people in cities always think it's all that red tape you have, but the problem is a lot simpler. There are more people than ever and housing supply hasn't kept up with demand. That is something the Canadian and US governments could fix going forward incredibly easily, without somehow finding 4x the home builders we currently have.
> Whenever I look at the Reddit history of a person attacking immigration by bringing up housing, I almost invariably see comments full of racism, xenophobia, a hatred of non-European-origin people/cultures, etc.
Ad hominem. I'm sure racists bring it up, just as it seems everyone else is afraid to bring it up for seeming like they're racists.
> This statement is wrong, yet abusively often repeated. North America's population went from a few million to a few hundred million in a few centuries. Wages in North America should close to zero if this statement were a true axiom.
That's an incredibly silly argument, and I don't know where to start. Again you're ignoring basic supply and demand. If immigrants didn't suppress wages, companies wouldn't bother hiring them. If they need 10 coders in a department and can't get enough, they'd have to raise their starting wage to entice more potential workers. If they can get 6 and fill the rest with immigrants they don't need to do that.
That's so basic I felt silly typing it on here.
Why? Why should we only worry about supply, especially when that's a much, much harder issue to tackle?
I live in a rural part of the US. There are no real zoning laws to speak of, red tape, high taxes, delays, NIMBYism, etc. None. Zero. Yet our house prices have also surged. My parents were able to afford 60 acres on a construction worker's (single) salary back in the 80s. My wife and I both have degrees and we could afford 15 acres with a much worse house, and that was 10 years ago. My wife's brother just bought a house for more than we spent.
It's in town, which is undesirable around here, on a regular in-town sized plot. The house is half of our home's size and needs a lot of work. Yet it's 25% more than what we paid with a much higher interest rate.
You people in cities always think it's all that red tape you have, but the problem is a lot simpler. There are more people than ever and housing supply hasn't kept up with demand. That is something the Canadian and US governments could fix going forward incredibly easily, without somehow finding 4x the home builders we currently have.
> Whenever I look at the Reddit history of a person attacking immigration by bringing up housing, I almost invariably see comments full of racism, xenophobia, a hatred of non-European-origin people/cultures, etc.
Ad hominem. I'm sure racists bring it up, just as it seems everyone else is afraid to bring it up for seeming like they're racists.
> This statement is wrong, yet abusively often repeated. North America's population went from a few million to a few hundred million in a few centuries. Wages in North America should close to zero if this statement were a true axiom.
That's an incredibly silly argument, and I don't know where to start. Again you're ignoring basic supply and demand. If immigrants didn't suppress wages, companies wouldn't bother hiring them. If they need 10 coders in a department and can't get enough, they'd have to raise their starting wage to entice more potential workers. If they can get 6 and fill the rest with immigrants they don't need to do that.
That's so basic I felt silly typing it on here.
> Yet our house prices have also surged.
Are you aware that housing prices surged during and immediately after COVID, i.e. circa 2020-2022, a time period which had the lower immigration numbers in recent history.
Lowest immigration in recent decades, yet the massive housing prices?
Yet you blame immigrants? Why do you hate immigrants so much?
> an incredibly silly argument ... felt silly
So you respond with the word "silly" repeatedly. Tells me all about your character.
> ignoring basic supply and demand
This is wrong. It's called the zero-sum fallacy. This doesn't apply to labor, at least not in the same way as to material goods. I'm not going to explain it further to you, but my example "North America's population went from a few million to a few hundred million in a few centuries. Wages in North America should close to zero if this statement were a true axiom." demonstrates this.
> raise their starting wage
And you think highly-skilled workers would magically appear out of thin air, as soon as this is done? http://www.paulgraham.com/95.html
> suppress wages
Your tone of language belies an incredible level of hatred, resentment, and rabid xenophobia towards immigrants.
> I live in a rural part of the US.
Why does it entirely* not surprise me that a rabid immigrant hater is from a part of the rural US (likely a Trump-supporting region), and which likely has seen few immigrants (versus liberal states/regions)? Rural areas with few immigrants that are responsible for much of the hatred towards immigrants at the national level.
The wickedness of restricting the free movement of people is that people like you want to use the violence of the state to exclude people peacefully moving. It's a morally evil thing to do. It makes you morally monstrous (not that you'd ever care of regret repent of it, I'm sure).
Personally, I really shouldn't engage with absolute evil moral monster like yourself, it's not great for my mental health. It makes HN a toxic, and suffocating place. Thank you (/s) for making HN far less welcoming, with your xenophobia.
I've generally avoided engaging in any immigration-related thread on HN for a few years now to the vitriolic level hatred of immigrants that many people here hold. This post has sort of been an object lesson in that -- most of the responses to my comments have been of a xenophobic nature. So I probably should go back to ignoring immigration-related thread on HN.
Are you aware that housing prices surged during and immediately after COVID, i.e. circa 2020-2022, a time period which had the lower immigration numbers in recent history.
Lowest immigration in recent decades, yet the massive housing prices?
Yet you blame immigrants? Why do you hate immigrants so much?
> an incredibly silly argument ... felt silly
So you respond with the word "silly" repeatedly. Tells me all about your character.
> ignoring basic supply and demand
This is wrong. It's called the zero-sum fallacy. This doesn't apply to labor, at least not in the same way as to material goods. I'm not going to explain it further to you, but my example "North America's population went from a few million to a few hundred million in a few centuries. Wages in North America should close to zero if this statement were a true axiom." demonstrates this.
> raise their starting wage
And you think highly-skilled workers would magically appear out of thin air, as soon as this is done? http://www.paulgraham.com/95.html
> suppress wages
Your tone of language belies an incredible level of hatred, resentment, and rabid xenophobia towards immigrants.
> I live in a rural part of the US.
Why does it entirely* not surprise me that a rabid immigrant hater is from a part of the rural US (likely a Trump-supporting region), and which likely has seen few immigrants (versus liberal states/regions)? Rural areas with few immigrants that are responsible for much of the hatred towards immigrants at the national level.
The wickedness of restricting the free movement of people is that people like you want to use the violence of the state to exclude people peacefully moving. It's a morally evil thing to do. It makes you morally monstrous (not that you'd ever care of regret repent of it, I'm sure).
Personally, I really shouldn't engage with absolute evil moral monster like yourself, it's not great for my mental health. It makes HN a toxic, and suffocating place. Thank you (/s) for making HN far less welcoming, with your xenophobia.
I've generally avoided engaging in any immigration-related thread on HN for a few years now to the vitriolic level hatred of immigrants that many people here hold. This post has sort of been an object lesson in that -- most of the responses to my comments have been of a xenophobic nature. So I probably should go back to ignoring immigration-related thread on HN.
You continue to argue discrimination is wrong. I explained that it's not wrong, prima facie. There are good reasons to discriminate. I don't think the Canadian government is serving and protecting Canadians. The Canadian government welcomed a million new migrants last year, into a country suffering one of the worst housing crises in the West. It's clear that not all Canadian immigrants are skilled, with reports that 95% of food bank service is to migrants (https://tnc.news/2023/08/08/food-bank-reports-95-of-users-no...).
I agree with a points based system, but there are clearly many structural issues to the Canadian system.
I agree with a points based system, but there are clearly many structural issues to the Canadian system.
95% of food bank users are immigrants… but what % of immigrants are food bank users?
Your link also says 65% of food bank users are students.
Anecdotally, I’m an immigrant in Canada, and every other immigrant I’ve ever met is comfortably in the top half of society income-wise, with the majority in the top 10%.
Your link also says 65% of food bank users are students.
Anecdotally, I’m an immigrant in Canada, and every other immigrant I’ve ever met is comfortably in the top half of society income-wise, with the majority in the top 10%.
> A total of 95% of those relying on Feed Scarborough were not born in the country, while 72% had only been in Canada a year or less.
I wonder how they collected these statistics. Do food banks seriously hand out forms asking people to fill out (a) their country of birth, (b) how long they'd lived in Canada?
Conservatives and right-wing media in general have shown a proclivity towards making up false statistics and false numbers, if it advances some conservative cause. For example, fake scientific papers denying climate change, or fabricated (un)scientific papers saying that the COVID vaccine is somehow dangerous. I would not trust data someone puts forward blindly.
I agree with the sibling comment that:
> Anecdotally, I’m an immigrant in Canada, and every other immigrant I’ve ever met is comfortably in the top half of society income-wise, with the majority in the top 10%.
This is true in my case as well.
I wonder how they collected these statistics. Do food banks seriously hand out forms asking people to fill out (a) their country of birth, (b) how long they'd lived in Canada?
Conservatives and right-wing media in general have shown a proclivity towards making up false statistics and false numbers, if it advances some conservative cause. For example, fake scientific papers denying climate change, or fabricated (un)scientific papers saying that the COVID vaccine is somehow dangerous. I would not trust data someone puts forward blindly.
I agree with the sibling comment that:
> Anecdotally, I’m an immigrant in Canada, and every other immigrant I’ve ever met is comfortably in the top half of society income-wise, with the majority in the top 10%.
This is true in my case as well.
The problem with the Canadian way is that we allow family reunification. As a Canadian taxpayer I don't want to pay for the economic emigrants parents and grandparents social security and health care.
For the refugees, I have no problem with family reunification because if the situation is bad enough to qualify for our humanitarian refugee program, chances are that it's also bad enough for the rest of that migrant family.
For the refugees, I have no problem with family reunification because if the situation is bad enough to qualify for our humanitarian refugee program, chances are that it's also bad enough for the rest of that migrant family.
Canada only allows 28,500 parents and grandparents[1] as permanent residents per year (and that limit was 20,000 until recently). That's just 6% of the total immigration target.
There is a temporary visa for parents and grandparents, but there is no access healthcare with it, which is serious matter[2][3][4]. For example:
> She says he needs a different type of care and has even offered to pay out of pocket, but she can’t get him into a long-term care home without an OHIP number.
Did you bother to google Canada's family immigration laws?
[1] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/ne...
[2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/citizenship-immigrati...
[3] https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/kingston-ont-woman-fighting-for-pa...
[4] https://www.thewhig.com/news/local-news/no-ohip-no-health-ca...
There is a temporary visa for parents and grandparents, but there is no access healthcare with it, which is serious matter[2][3][4]. For example:
> She says he needs a different type of care and has even offered to pay out of pocket, but she can’t get him into a long-term care home without an OHIP number.
Did you bother to google Canada's family immigration laws?
[1] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/ne...
[2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/citizenship-immigrati...
[3] https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/kingston-ont-woman-fighting-for-pa...
[4] https://www.thewhig.com/news/local-news/no-ohip-no-health-ca...
I read a few pages on canada.ca and you are right they don't become citizens they obtain a "super visa" and are forced to buy a medical insurance from a Canadian provider.¹ I have no more opposition to the reunification program !
1) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/co...
1) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/co...
It's pretty sad that you rejoice in other people being treated badly (or unfairly).
With a 200k CAD income, I'm likely[1] a top 10% earner. Most immigrants to Canada likely earn more than the average Canadian, since the Canadian immigration system heavy selects for high-skilled individuals with. So, considering skilled immigrants' tax contributions are likely quite a bit higher, don't immigrants' parents deserve to have full access to free healthcare?
[1] The statistics top out at 100k: https://www.statista.com/statistics/464262/percentage-distri...
With a 200k CAD income, I'm likely[1] a top 10% earner. Most immigrants to Canada likely earn more than the average Canadian, since the Canadian immigration system heavy selects for high-skilled individuals with. So, considering skilled immigrants' tax contributions are likely quite a bit higher, don't immigrants' parents deserve to have full access to free healthcare?
[1] The statistics top out at 100k: https://www.statista.com/statistics/464262/percentage-distri...
The trade off being that generally Canada pays half as much and most tech high skilled jobs are going to be in metro areas that Canada has few of. Top that with a worse housing crises than what we see in the US.
I also think your argument would be more constructive without some of the strong language you use. For myself it takes away from a constructive conversation and reads poorly.
I also think your argument would be more constructive without some of the strong language you use. For myself it takes away from a constructive conversation and reads poorly.
The higher salaries in the US probably has to do with the concentration of highly-successful tech companies in the US. Not just FAANG et al, but the many small high-revenue-generating companies in the US. There probably isn't as much of a concentration of high-revenue successful tech companies in Canada. The lower salaries in Canada probably has more to do with that, than with Canada being more welcoming towards high-skilled immigrants.
I used strong language in my comment earlier, since I've lived in the past for over a decade without basic rights in the US, and since moved to Canada. So this is real and personal to me. Whenever I talked about not having rights in the US on HN, many individuals on HN responded with intense hatred saying things that effectively amounted to "get the fuck out of this country you brown piece of shit", "we hate you", "you don't deserve to have any rights", "you have no right to expect to have any rights or freedom in this country" etc--and, no, they didn't use those exact words--I am paraphrasing their sentiment--but they expressed an equivalent sentiment / level of hatred using politer words. You can dig through my comment history to find those comments. To me, it was oddly reminiscent of the hatred white Americans must have shown black people during the Jim Crow era, or Germans towards Jews after the Nuremberg laws had been passed. I just didn't expect such extreme loathing and hatred toward immigrants to be so incredibly prevalent on HN.
I used strong language in my comment earlier, since I've lived in the past for over a decade without basic rights in the US, and since moved to Canada. So this is real and personal to me. Whenever I talked about not having rights in the US on HN, many individuals on HN responded with intense hatred saying things that effectively amounted to "get the fuck out of this country you brown piece of shit", "we hate you", "you don't deserve to have any rights", "you have no right to expect to have any rights or freedom in this country" etc--and, no, they didn't use those exact words--I am paraphrasing their sentiment--but they expressed an equivalent sentiment / level of hatred using politer words. You can dig through my comment history to find those comments. To me, it was oddly reminiscent of the hatred white Americans must have shown black people during the Jim Crow era, or Germans towards Jews after the Nuremberg laws had been passed. I just didn't expect such extreme loathing and hatred toward immigrants to be so incredibly prevalent on HN.
Certainly, I won’t even begin to speculate why salaries are different and I am sure there are more high paying jobs there now but last time I had the chance to look they were always drastically lower for the same company that had locations in both Canada and the US. And often times the cost of living were higher in Canada when accounting for housing.
I am sorry you had the experience you did and I make no argument about your experience. I think it’s hard to push for change in immigration law when there is no shortage of skilled immigrants coming into the US.
I am sorry you had the experience you did and I make no argument about your experience. I think it’s hard to push for change in immigration law when there is no shortage of skilled immigrants coming into the US.
> when there is no shortage of skilled immigrants coming into the US
Where did you get this idea from? Ask anybody hiring managers in tech (who are willing to pay well), and they’ll say there’s nothing but a shortage. And I’m sure there’s multiple other fields besides tech with a serious shortage.
Employers requested 758,944 visas for skilled workers (H1B), and the U.S. government due to congressional limits, can only issue 85,000 and will have to reject 673,994 applications.
Source: https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary...
Where did you get this idea from? Ask anybody hiring managers in tech (who are willing to pay well), and they’ll say there’s nothing but a shortage. And I’m sure there’s multiple other fields besides tech with a serious shortage.
Employers requested 758,944 visas for skilled workers (H1B), and the U.S. government due to congressional limits, can only issue 85,000 and will have to reject 673,994 applications.
Source: https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary...
Not sure you understand what I mean or we might be conflating ideas here. Probably best to back away since I know it’s a powerful topic for you but at least let me explain this part.
Your general thesis has been that immigrants are treated as unequals without rights by the US government. I am not arguing if that is true or not. I am simply stating that those processes are hard to change when there is no shortage of people wanting to come to America. There is not a supply shortage of people wanting to come, so there is no incentive to make the process easier/better. Adding proof with your statement that we annually reject more applications than accept.
Your general thesis has been that immigrants are treated as unequals without rights by the US government. I am not arguing if that is true or not. I am simply stating that those processes are hard to change when there is no shortage of people wanting to come to America. There is not a supply shortage of people wanting to come, so there is no incentive to make the process easier/better. Adding proof with your statement that we annually reject more applications than accept.
Yea, you're not wrong about that.
Just because there is demand, doesn't mean it's morally right to treat people badly, and to restrict their rights and freedoms.
Canada is an excellent counter-example to this.
Canada gives most people moving to Canada their full rights and freedom, unlike the US. From a purely moral point of view, that's highly commendable.
There is huge demand (and millions of people willing) to move to wealthy countries the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait UAE, Qatar, etc. That demand and desire exists mostly due to higher salaries there.
There's no reason the US should treat immigrants worse than Qatar or Saudi Arabia (I would say the conditions of the H-2 work visa and especially the undocumented are probably worse than in some countries in the middle east), but the US (or at least Republicans[1] in the US) chooses to do so out of general disdain and hatred towards the concept of granting permanent residence, and integrating new people.
[1] I'm clarifying with Republicans here, since many blue (Democratic) states have indicated they'd like the welcome immigrants, Democratic politicians have introduced legislation that is immigrant-friendly; and all of these efforts have only been opposed to and blocked by Republicans.
Just because there is demand, doesn't mean it's morally right to treat people badly, and to restrict their rights and freedoms.
Canada is an excellent counter-example to this.
Canada gives most people moving to Canada their full rights and freedom, unlike the US. From a purely moral point of view, that's highly commendable.
There is huge demand (and millions of people willing) to move to wealthy countries the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait UAE, Qatar, etc. That demand and desire exists mostly due to higher salaries there.
There's no reason the US should treat immigrants worse than Qatar or Saudi Arabia (I would say the conditions of the H-2 work visa and especially the undocumented are probably worse than in some countries in the middle east), but the US (or at least Republicans[1] in the US) chooses to do so out of general disdain and hatred towards the concept of granting permanent residence, and integrating new people.
[1] I'm clarifying with Republicans here, since many blue (Democratic) states have indicated they'd like the welcome immigrants, Democratic politicians have introduced legislation that is immigrant-friendly; and all of these efforts have only been opposed to and blocked by Republicans.
linuxftw(2)
My one data point: I used to be an IT consultant in St Louis. St Louis is roughly half white and half black. The IT departments I worked with were roughly half white and half H1B Indian. The only black employees I saw were the security guards, or were from Africa or the Caribbean.
I’m convinced that H1B provide a barrier to entry for Black Americans into the IT sector.
I’m convinced that H1B provide a barrier to entry for Black Americans into the IT sector.
You may be convinced, but I'm convinced that the barrier to entry for black Americans is that they don't go to college, and if they do go to college, they don't go into STEM. So they're by and large not qualified to enter the sector.
https://dhewd.mo.gov/documents/EquityReport2020.pdf
It is easy to blame immigrants. But immigrants aren't involved in the bit where the disparity starts showing up in a big way.
https://dhewd.mo.gov/documents/EquityReport2020.pdf
It is easy to blame immigrants. But immigrants aren't involved in the bit where the disparity starts showing up in a big way.
Black Americans face systemic issues keeping them out of college. It's complicated and I salute all who even attempt it considering their starting points in life are so much worse.
Everyone agrees that they face systemic issues. People don't agree on what those systemic issues are.
As an example, the California math curriculum is being organized around more extreme versions of the idea of keeping grades together, even though some have not learned previous material. They point to the fact that blacks wind up staying in class to higher grade levels.
Troglodytes like myself point out that if someone is missing key concepts in math, it is absolutely essential that this not be glossed over. You have to go back and fix the foundation before trying to go on. Systemically not even trying to do this allows only the pretense of an education. People like me then point to poor test scores and adult outcomes as evidence that pretending people failed to learn doesn't work. We need to have more rigorous standards, offer more support, and be willing to go more slowly at first until people "get" concepts.
When you look at states by black/white disparities in the prison population, progressive states dominate the bad end of the spectrum, and conservative states dominate the better end. (No state is actually very good, but some are less bad than others.)
My opinion is this. Conservative states do a lot that's obviously bad. What progressive states do is not as obviously bad, but generates worse results. Rigid ideological lectures around equity don't change that. Most people think that we live in a more progressive and tolerant society than we did under Reagan. But black/white wealth disparities have been increasing, not decreasing. Not because of old problems like redlining. Which was banned in 1968. But because CURRENT policies passed since 1980 are bad.
So what would I change? First I would end the drug war. It was always a race war. Second, I would bring back school bussing. Data showed that it really worked.
As an example, the California math curriculum is being organized around more extreme versions of the idea of keeping grades together, even though some have not learned previous material. They point to the fact that blacks wind up staying in class to higher grade levels.
Troglodytes like myself point out that if someone is missing key concepts in math, it is absolutely essential that this not be glossed over. You have to go back and fix the foundation before trying to go on. Systemically not even trying to do this allows only the pretense of an education. People like me then point to poor test scores and adult outcomes as evidence that pretending people failed to learn doesn't work. We need to have more rigorous standards, offer more support, and be willing to go more slowly at first until people "get" concepts.
When you look at states by black/white disparities in the prison population, progressive states dominate the bad end of the spectrum, and conservative states dominate the better end. (No state is actually very good, but some are less bad than others.)
My opinion is this. Conservative states do a lot that's obviously bad. What progressive states do is not as obviously bad, but generates worse results. Rigid ideological lectures around equity don't change that. Most people think that we live in a more progressive and tolerant society than we did under Reagan. But black/white wealth disparities have been increasing, not decreasing. Not because of old problems like redlining. Which was banned in 1968. But because CURRENT policies passed since 1980 are bad.
So what would I change? First I would end the drug war. It was always a race war. Second, I would bring back school bussing. Data showed that it really worked.
Your logic doesn’t follow. Is there more?
Additionally, there should be a feedback loop when the economy slows. The Visa cap should be reduced, maintaining the yearly rate. Btw, I don’t envision this visa fee to be a few thousand dollars a year, but in the 10s to 100k per year. Right now, there are American engineers who aren’t being hired, while H1B are being forced back into the office.
You don't think that the South's centuries of chattel slavery, and then a century of formal apartheid, and now a kind of less formal apartheid doesn't have a lot more to do with why black Americans face barriers to entry to middle-upper-class professions?
No, it's the immigrants' fault...
(I wonder who you blame for lack of black Americans in C-level positions, doctors, lawyers, politicians, various millionaires and billionaires, etc. Not that many folks from India in any of those, so immigration from Asia can't be it...)
No, it's the immigrants' fault...
(I wonder who you blame for lack of black Americans in C-level positions, doctors, lawyers, politicians, various millionaires and billionaires, etc. Not that many folks from India in any of those, so immigration from Asia can't be it...)
There’s plenty of reasons why black American’s fail to succeed, but in IT, the availability of cheap H1B is absolutely a factor. I worked in a Fortune 500 company who hired a ton of engineers from historically black colleges and universities. Probably 30 engineers in our group of around 200. After 4 years many weren’t working out and were let go. Of the 30, I believe just 4 remain. Since then, the company has hired almost exclusively H1B for those positions. Was there a competitive problem with those newly minted engineers, yes. But, they were effectively replaced by H1Bs.
Maybe not evidence exactly, but the stereotype of the barista with a fancy degree and lots of loans comes to mind.
> Those Americans can mostly get loans to pay for college, then pay off their loans using all the extra money they make now that they're an engineer.
The flaw in that kind of logic is:
1: Many people who enter college can't graduate, for many different reasons.
2: Many people who graduate are incapable of working in the field they studied for, again for many different reasons.
In my experience, I went to an expensive school that had a high dropout rate. A lot of the dropouts were people who either had poor study habits, or simply weren't able to understand the material. Unfortunately, everyone who took out loans and then dropped out still had to pay back the loans.
> Those Americans can mostly get loans to pay for college, then pay off their loans using all the extra money they make now that they're an engineer.
The flaw in that kind of logic is:
1: Many people who enter college can't graduate, for many different reasons.
2: Many people who graduate are incapable of working in the field they studied for, again for many different reasons.
In my experience, I went to an expensive school that had a high dropout rate. A lot of the dropouts were people who either had poor study habits, or simply weren't able to understand the material. Unfortunately, everyone who took out loans and then dropped out still had to pay back the loans.
That's why all the smart people became home contractors and started their own business.
Well, that was some of the best advice I heard in high school. I went to a religious "prep" school, and one of the best teachers I had pointed out that fact to us.
He basically said that, if you're planning on working in a field that does not need a college degree, it's not "worth it" to go to college. In 4 years, you'll be making more money then someone graduating, and have no debt, and have savings.
It was "sacreligous" on his part because the school had a 99% college acceptance rate; but years later I bumped into an alumn from my class who went the contractor / no college route, and was doing well and very happy.
Edit:
> That's why all the smart people became home contractors
That's not a job for everyone, which is why college is also needed. I'd really hate being a home contractor, for many, many reasons. College was the right path for me, but I'm under no illusion that it's the right path for everyone.
He basically said that, if you're planning on working in a field that does not need a college degree, it's not "worth it" to go to college. In 4 years, you'll be making more money then someone graduating, and have no debt, and have savings.
It was "sacreligous" on his part because the school had a 99% college acceptance rate; but years later I bumped into an alumn from my class who went the contractor / no college route, and was doing well and very happy.
Edit:
> That's why all the smart people became home contractors
That's not a job for everyone, which is why college is also needed. I'd really hate being a home contractor, for many, many reasons. College was the right path for me, but I'm under no illusion that it's the right path for everyone.
IMO there are many Americans who would work in IT/Tech if you paid them to do it, but the risk calculation doesn't currently make sense. If you're an adult making $25-35/hour in your current job, just meeting rent/utilities/obligations, it's hard to accept going back to school for several years to complete a Bachelor's degree, with zero guarantee of employment, but a definite guarantee of debt on the order of ~60K (taking a cheaper option). This is also true for those lower on the socioeconomic totem pole, whose parents are not going to pay for them to go to school. We've seen the result of making student loans widely available, there are many under-employed Americans in debt.
Numerically I agree with you, the debt load is worth the risk, if you're specifically going for software/IT, but the risk is not zero.
Numerically I agree with you, the debt load is worth the risk, if you're specifically going for software/IT, but the risk is not zero.
The debt load is worth the risk for someone who's wanted to be an engineer all their life and has seen signs in their schooling they are likely to be good at it. I think the debt load is very questionable, for someone who is at the margin between being an engineer and not being an engineer, has no indicators they would be good at it. Plenty of engineers (especially outside big cities) end up peaking at $80k/year which isn't worth taking a huge amount of debt for especially if their alternative is earning $60k/year already.
I don't know how many typical hourly workers are going to be able to be reasonably trained for it, but there are some. The vast demand for it and tech workers should pull them in. But it doesn't, cost is one reason, but a bigger reason is it's hard or they think they can't do it or are actively dis-interested.
One way to see this is that a million people every year who are already in college choose not to study cs or it type things. They could do it as part of regular college but they don't. Then they get out and can't get a job.
One way to see this is that a million people every year who are already in college choose not to study cs or it type things. They could do it as part of regular college but they don't. Then they get out and can't get a job.
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Don't forget the other problem we're running out of labor in the US.
What kind of financial advice says to take out more loans to make long term investments when you're already deep in debt?
I came to the US on an H1B. I worked at Microsoft and Facebook. Then I started a company funded by YCombinator. It is now a unicorn and has created hundreds of jobs.
This country treats immigrants unfairly but even that poor treatment represents more opportunities for them than elsewhere. So they put up with it. But that won’t always be the case and it’s already very different than when I came here. Not sure I’d decide to immigrate to US if I were starting today, knowing what I know now.
This country treats immigrants unfairly but even that poor treatment represents more opportunities for them than elsewhere. So they put up with it. But that won’t always be the case and it’s already very different than when I came here. Not sure I’d decide to immigrate to US if I were starting today, knowing what I know now.
what has changed that would make you less likely to immigrate today?
the key part is 'knowing what I know now'
I migrated, not to US, and my brother stayed. We work in the same industry, and has 2x my quality of life with 60% of the income.
Peope who immigrate on these visas are typically not lower class in their home societies, they are usually upper-middle class. And usually you wnd up just in the middle class in the west. And standarss of living for middle class have beeen declining for the past 10 years or so, while developing nations are developing.
There is also cost to immigration - losijg contact with family, expense and stress of applying for visas, etc. You wouldn't make the jump for like 10% improvement, the QoL improvement has to be at least 50% for it to be worthwhile.
I migrated, not to US, and my brother stayed. We work in the same industry, and has 2x my quality of life with 60% of the income.
Peope who immigrate on these visas are typically not lower class in their home societies, they are usually upper-middle class. And usually you wnd up just in the middle class in the west. And standarss of living for middle class have beeen declining for the past 10 years or so, while developing nations are developing.
There is also cost to immigration - losijg contact with family, expense and stress of applying for visas, etc. You wouldn't make the jump for like 10% improvement, the QoL improvement has to be at least 50% for it to be worthwhile.
Giving up comforts of home is not easy and there has to be a 2X improvement in QoL for the move to be justified. And I’m not sure there is any improvement in QoL honestly. You get some you lose some. It’s more or less an even trade at this point.
A lot. Pandemic accelerated globalization. Availability of VC money used to be exclusively American but is now global.
> I want a bidding system for the H1B slots, paid not just once, but yearly by the companies which hire the H1Bs
I want to eliminate the H-1B (and some other non-immigrant economic visa categories, but the H-1B is the most salient) and instead allow would-be immigrants or temporary workers not admitted under any other visa category but not personally disqualified from entry to get an annually renewable paid self-sponsored work-eligible visa (with lower fees for those eligible but on a waitlist in an immigrant visa category) . If employers want to pay for the cost, they can, but the worker’s visa status won’t be dependent on them.
I want to eliminate the H-1B (and some other non-immigrant economic visa categories, but the H-1B is the most salient) and instead allow would-be immigrants or temporary workers not admitted under any other visa category but not personally disqualified from entry to get an annually renewable paid self-sponsored work-eligible visa (with lower fees for those eligible but on a waitlist in an immigrant visa category) . If employers want to pay for the cost, they can, but the worker’s visa status won’t be dependent on them.
Or, you know, you could go the Canadian route--i.e. grant permanent residence to high-skilled immigrants (which lets them become citizens), and not treat immigrants (i.e. granting immigrants permanent residence) as a matter to be viewed with disgust, hatred, callousness, and contempt.
Also, Canada rapidly transitions temporary work visa holders into permanent residents, instead of letting them languish as visa holders without basic rights for decades like the US.
Also, Canada rapidly transitions temporary work visa holders into permanent residents, instead of letting them languish as visa holders without basic rights for decades like the US.
And once you get Canadian citizenship, you can make the bigger bucks in the USA under NAFTA (or whatever it is called these days).
When I looked into it, I found that Canada’s really serious about the high-skilled part (or high-credentialed, anyway). A bachelor’s in CS and pile of experience won’t cut it (in fact, experience can hurt, because being older hurts your score) unless you have already landed a job with a Canadian company.
> Or, you know,
This is an obnoxious way of starting a point.
This is an obnoxious way of starting a point.
How so? (I'm not a native speaker)
Annually renewable would be borderline evil.
For some reason, the US is incapable of renewing visas for people who are already in the country. You can renew status, but not visa. If you renew your status and want to travel internationally, you must get a new visa if you want to return. And, for unknown reasons, that can take a lot of time even in trivial cases. Such as when the applicant is already living and working legally in the US.
For some reason, the US is incapable of renewing visas for people who are already in the country. You can renew status, but not visa. If you renew your status and want to travel internationally, you must get a new visa if you want to return. And, for unknown reasons, that can take a lot of time even in trivial cases. Such as when the applicant is already living and working legally in the US.
> For some reason, the US is incapable of renewing visas for people who are already in the country.
We choose not to prioritize and allocate resources to it (or choose to bureaucratically overcomplicate it given the resources allocated to it).
It’s not fundamentally hard, failure is a choice. And its a choice we shouldn’t make.
We choose not to prioritize and allocate resources to it (or choose to bureaucratically overcomplicate it given the resources allocated to it).
It’s not fundamentally hard, failure is a choice. And its a choice we shouldn’t make.
> If you renew your status and want to travel internationally, you must get a new visa if you want to return. And, for unknown reasons, that can take a lot of time even in trivial cases.
If that's true, you couldn't visit your family back home?
Personally, I have spent a lot of energy dealing with partially dysfunctional immigration system, I would not be willing to do that again
If that's true, you couldn't visit your family back home?
Personally, I have spent a lot of energy dealing with partially dysfunctional immigration system, I would not be willing to do that again
You can visit home, but you might end up stuck there.
Leaving the US as a non-immigrant always carries a small amount of risk: CBP can always decide to refuse your next admission, even with a visa. After the recent spate of tech layoffs some H1-B holders have been asked to show recent payslips at the border to prove their continued employment, for example.
If you’re super unlucky (with your citizenship, or even just sharing a name with someone on a list) visa renewals can be delayed by months to years for security checks (“administrative processing”).
There are also some green card routes which require a period where you simply can’t leave the US without abandoning your application, after which you’ll be refused entry as a non-immigrant and will need to do the entire multi-year immigrant visa process from your home company. H1-B holders avoid this, fortunately, but TN holders and tourists who get married and decide to stay can get caught out here.
tl;dr: the US immigration system is actively user-hostile.
Leaving the US as a non-immigrant always carries a small amount of risk: CBP can always decide to refuse your next admission, even with a visa. After the recent spate of tech layoffs some H1-B holders have been asked to show recent payslips at the border to prove their continued employment, for example.
If you’re super unlucky (with your citizenship, or even just sharing a name with someone on a list) visa renewals can be delayed by months to years for security checks (“administrative processing”).
There are also some green card routes which require a period where you simply can’t leave the US without abandoning your application, after which you’ll be refused entry as a non-immigrant and will need to do the entire multi-year immigrant visa process from your home company. H1-B holders avoid this, fortunately, but TN holders and tourists who get married and decide to stay can get caught out here.
tl;dr: the US immigration system is actively user-hostile.
> a period where you simply can’t leave the US without abandoning your application
This is crazy. I would inderdtand if the Gov asked for a million dollars upfront, but this is just pointless abuse and cruelty.
UK has the same shit, if you apply for Permanent Residency you can't leave, and my parents suffered a serious ilness and I couldn't go.
This is crazy. I would inderdtand if the Gov asked for a million dollars upfront, but this is just pointless abuse and cruelty.
UK has the same shit, if you apply for Permanent Residency you can't leave, and my parents suffered a serious ilness and I couldn't go.
The US immigration system for skilled labor is fundamentally broken.
We give out student visas openly, incentivizing universities to bring on large numbers of international students at full rate vs. discounted local students. We then do not provide immigration visas to these same students, leading to them being deported some years into the professional workforce.
This is a recipe to create a skilled labor shortage.
We give out student visas openly, incentivizing universities to bring on large numbers of international students at full rate vs. discounted local students. We then do not provide immigration visas to these same students, leading to them being deported some years into the professional workforce.
This is a recipe to create a skilled labor shortage.
In fairness, that system wasn't designed to increase the # of skilled workers in the US, it was designed to propagate and spread "American values" overseas.
A half century ago, the idea was that you bring a lot of the best and brightest of poorer foreign nations to the US for a university education. Then they return to their home nation and eventually work their way up to positions of power. Hopefully, their positive view of the USA will influence their decision making. In addition, many will have maintained contacts they made during their school years.
It's not a crazy tactic given that the cost was mostly borne by the foreigners.
A half century ago, the idea was that you bring a lot of the best and brightest of poorer foreign nations to the US for a university education. Then they return to their home nation and eventually work their way up to positions of power. Hopefully, their positive view of the USA will influence their decision making. In addition, many will have maintained contacts they made during their school years.
It's not a crazy tactic given that the cost was mostly borne by the foreigners.
Do you have any sources for your assertions?
It really isn’t hard to move those tech jobs abroad and then have Americans go to India or China instead on working visas (eg a Chinese Z visa I had for 9 years). The USA is maintaining some kind of balance with their H1 program: enough to encourage keeping those jobs in the USA, but not enough to be a free for all for immigration. It isn’t doing really good at that, but an overly punitive H1B program will simply cause those jobs to switch to other countries.
Yep. Since OP mentions working as IT consultant, I can easily see how that field being dominated by IT shops that merely checkbox one or more of H1B critireas. I can see how his/her perspective is colored.
But if you make visa program too punitive, then folks will simply chose not to come. A person in their 30-40s, want stability so as they can raise their kids, have a place to call home and not be on a perpetual cycle of anxiety.
In my mind, this will disincentivize folks who have most to contribute to US economy. I don't know much about China but for folks who are really good, salaries in India is already pretty high and closer to US salaries and will have fewer reasons to immigrate.
But if you make visa program too punitive, then folks will simply chose not to come. A person in their 30-40s, want stability so as they can raise their kids, have a place to call home and not be on a perpetual cycle of anxiety.
In my mind, this will disincentivize folks who have most to contribute to US economy. I don't know much about China but for folks who are really good, salaries in India is already pretty high and closer to US salaries and will have fewer reasons to immigrate.
Chinese tech salaries are pretty good, so much so that they attract workers from adjacent countries like Japan where tech salaries are traditionally less good.
> It really isn’t hard to move those tech jobs abroad
It isn't? They've been trying their hardest since the late 90's, and have never been able to make it work. They'd love to pay $1.00/hour for programming work in Bangladesh like they do for textile manufacturing, but as of a quarter-way through the 21st century, they haven't been able to.
It isn't? They've been trying their hardest since the late 90's, and have never been able to make it work. They'd love to pay $1.00/hour for programming work in Bangladesh like they do for textile manufacturing, but as of a quarter-way through the 21st century, they haven't been able to.
It isn’t. There is a cost, it doesn’t make sense right now to pay those costs beyond a few R&D centers. But make work visas harder to get in the USA, then it will make sense to do more R&and abroad.
FWIW, employers pay $750-1500 into The American Competitiveness and Workforce Improvement Act (ACWIA) fee when they apply for an H-1B.
Right, but if these people are skilled migrants working in in demand areas, that's 2 or 3 orders of magnitude less than an auction would raise.
People on H-1B do pay into programs like social security which they won’t be able to repatriate when they leave.
Agree that an auction will raise more money. My point was that there is significant amount of money H-1B programs generate already.
Agree that an auction will raise more money. My point was that there is significant amount of money H-1B programs generate already.
Social security and Medicare. H1b holders pay into both but are not eligible for either. They are not entitled to get it back even when they return to their country of citizenship.
So yes - there’s a whole lot of $$ that are currently paid into by h1b holders.
So yes - there’s a whole lot of $$ that are currently paid into by h1b holders.
Eric Weinstein proposed something similar back in 2004 (https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/j.1564-913x.2002.tb00238.x). A kind of "migrant dividend." It would align all kinds of currently misaligned economic incentives. No economic policy is costless. Least not migration. Unfortunately most of the costs of high migration are borne by the poor, and most of the benefits are borne by the rich. A migrant dividend would go a LONG way to better distribute the benefits and compensate the poor for downward pressure on wages and working conditions. These dividends would demand employers think long and hard about their real need to employ foreign labour. I suspect they're perfectly capable of finding skilled labour locally. They just want to cut labour costs by hiring H1Bs.
The dividends could be used for a raft of things, including what you've suggested. Alternatively, it could simply be divided by every person in the country and evenly distributed. Dividends, as they offer in Alaska, are very politically popular, and stand a good chance of being legislatively approved.
The dividends could be used for a raft of things, including what you've suggested. Alternatively, it could simply be divided by every person in the country and evenly distributed. Dividends, as they offer in Alaska, are very politically popular, and stand a good chance of being legislatively approved.
> No economic policy is costless. Least not migration
As with all of these discussions: what costs? And how does this differ from the costs of children being born and coming of age into the workforce? Should we in fact be enforcing birth, schooling and university quotas to limit the rate at which new humans can enter the skilled workforce?
As with all of these discussions: what costs? And how does this differ from the costs of children being born and coming of age into the workforce? Should we in fact be enforcing birth, schooling and university quotas to limit the rate at which new humans can enter the skilled workforce?
> As with all of these discussions: what costs?
I'll use one of the most cited papers on migration (https://www.jstor.org/stable/24739100) (part of the text here: https://www.oecd.org/els/38195773.pdf). It's a longitudinal study on Denmark during the period of 1991-2008, exploring the results of a wave of new refugees in the country.
The tl;dr is that low-skilled natives were effectively pushed out of their previous employment. They could not, or would not, compete with the migrants owing to ostensibly lower wages and worse working conditions. Instead, they leveraged Denmark's generous free education system, and earned degrees. This afforded them higher wages over a long period of time.
So, one of the costs of high migration - particularly low-skilled migration - is that the poorest lose their jobs, or earn less, or have to work in worse conditions. If you live in a country without free university education, these people will have to contend with a permanent quality of life downgrade.
Then there is housing. The West has experienced enormous pressure on rental and home prices over the last couple of decades. Part of the reason for this is high migration. People need to live somewhere. In many places, for various reasons, production has not kept up. This means locals are forced to pay more for accommodation. This, once again, disproportionately impacts the poor.
I also cite demand for social services and infrastructure, which also appears to be failing to expand at sufficient pace in many nations.
> And how does this differ from the costs of children being born and coming of age into the workforce? Should we in fact be enforcing birth, schooling and university quotas to limit the rate at which new humans can enter the skilled workforce?
Your question implies no distinction between locals and immigrants. That is clearly incorrect. A nation exists to protect the wellbeing of its citizens, not citizens of other nations.
I'll use one of the most cited papers on migration (https://www.jstor.org/stable/24739100) (part of the text here: https://www.oecd.org/els/38195773.pdf). It's a longitudinal study on Denmark during the period of 1991-2008, exploring the results of a wave of new refugees in the country.
The tl;dr is that low-skilled natives were effectively pushed out of their previous employment. They could not, or would not, compete with the migrants owing to ostensibly lower wages and worse working conditions. Instead, they leveraged Denmark's generous free education system, and earned degrees. This afforded them higher wages over a long period of time.
So, one of the costs of high migration - particularly low-skilled migration - is that the poorest lose their jobs, or earn less, or have to work in worse conditions. If you live in a country without free university education, these people will have to contend with a permanent quality of life downgrade.
Then there is housing. The West has experienced enormous pressure on rental and home prices over the last couple of decades. Part of the reason for this is high migration. People need to live somewhere. In many places, for various reasons, production has not kept up. This means locals are forced to pay more for accommodation. This, once again, disproportionately impacts the poor.
I also cite demand for social services and infrastructure, which also appears to be failing to expand at sufficient pace in many nations.
> And how does this differ from the costs of children being born and coming of age into the workforce? Should we in fact be enforcing birth, schooling and university quotas to limit the rate at which new humans can enter the skilled workforce?
Your question implies no distinction between locals and immigrants. That is clearly incorrect. A nation exists to protect the wellbeing of its citizens, not citizens of other nations.
You might as well just send the money to the universities directly. The universities don't take the extra money and hire more professors to fill the supply they divert the money to non-education activities. College isn't even about education anyway it's some weird social signaling game where the more people with a badge(diploma) the less the value of the badge.
> the H1B slots
The number of slots feels extremely arbitrary to me. Is it based on anything remotely 'real'? As in statistics or other hard numbers? Or is it some 'magic number' that Congress handed down at some point?
The number of slots feels extremely arbitrary to me. Is it based on anything remotely 'real'? As in statistics or other hard numbers? Or is it some 'magic number' that Congress handed down at some point?
A bidding system will help tech companies in California more preferentially than the agricultural engineering firm in Alabama. Is that better for the US? I’m not sure
Yes. It will raise wages for everyone.
And where will the money come from? I often hear requests for higher wages, but nobody ever volunteers to pay more to fund such wages.
Record corporate profits and executive compensation can be reduced to return value to the workers.
No company would bid more than they can afford in an H1B auction.
The amount they pay will be more than offset by the value generated by high skill of the highly skilled employees this gives them access to.
The amount they pay will be more than offset by the value generated by high skill of the highly skilled employees this gives them access to.
The H1B and EB green cards are already pretty expensive. I’m pretty sure the USCIS is using that money to subsidize its other activities.
American university education is really expensive. I don’t think any amount of money from this is going to help subsidize that. I’m not sure why it is so expensive but charging more for h1b and green cards isn’t going to help that cause.
Edit: I support the idea that the US workforce should be self sufficient and not rely on immigration. That has to come through reducing cost of higher education. I just don’t trust the uscis to give up their $$ in support of that cause.
American university education is really expensive. I don’t think any amount of money from this is going to help subsidize that. I’m not sure why it is so expensive but charging more for h1b and green cards isn’t going to help that cause.
Edit: I support the idea that the US workforce should be self sufficient and not rely on immigration. That has to come through reducing cost of higher education. I just don’t trust the uscis to give up their $$ in support of that cause.
> there should be a multiplier on that fee for any company which lays off US citizens with that skill in the past N years
Under that proposal I would probably not hire a US citizen at all if a foreigner is available. Sure the foreigner might be more expensive (that is: if I am not reducing his salary to compensate for the H1B fee), but at least I don't have that Damocles sword hanging over my head. Especially if the firing happens in a time of hardship when my finances are already strained, that could be the straw that breaks the camel back.
Under that proposal I would probably not hire a US citizen at all if a foreigner is available. Sure the foreigner might be more expensive (that is: if I am not reducing his salary to compensate for the H1B fee), but at least I don't have that Damocles sword hanging over my head. Especially if the firing happens in a time of hardship when my finances are already strained, that could be the straw that breaks the camel back.
H1B minimum pay is supposed to ensure it is for highly paid and highly skilled workers. Not something to be exploited to suppress wages or keep employees hostage.
And yet you regularly see companies laying off their more senior employees in favor of H1B either directly or through hiring TCS or Infosys to bring in an army of H1Bs.
If you have noticed, that army of h1b has whittled of late. Most of the firms will hire us citizens and perm residents locally but provide liberal work visas in Canada where it is a lot easier. So I don’t think the army of h1b is the same size as before. It’s most likely in Canada.
A lot of firms also hire direct in India. Accenture or ibm will have a token representative in the us with a majority of the worker bees in India. I think singling out Tcs or infosys is a bit of a dog whistle. The biggest offenders are American consulting companies.
A lot of firms also hire direct in India. Accenture or ibm will have a token representative in the us with a majority of the worker bees in India. I think singling out Tcs or infosys is a bit of a dog whistle. The biggest offenders are American consulting companies.
You are proposing a mechanism for determining the price but not the quantity. And, since the quantity can be arbitrary, then, thought bidding, so can the price (within limits).
Furthermore, if the H1B is causing a cost/loss to someone, then the money should go to these people. You can argue that the H1B is harming local workers, but it cannot possibly be harming future/potential workers to which you propose to give the scholarship.
Furthermore, if the H1B is causing a cost/loss to someone, then the money should go to these people. You can argue that the H1B is harming local workers, but it cannot possibly be harming future/potential workers to which you propose to give the scholarship.
This might be controversial but I think the situation cannot be changed with scholarships. Somebody with the will can do courses in community college and become employable.
The way to solve is by more parental guidance. American parents usually leave everything to the kids to decide. STEM courses are hard. Asian parents push their kids to take difficult subjects even if the kids resist.
The way to solve is by more parental guidance. American parents usually leave everything to the kids to decide. STEM courses are hard. Asian parents push their kids to take difficult subjects even if the kids resist.
The payment should be by the employee, not the employer, but perhaps pre-tax.
This way the difference between an H1B and a real citizen employee is transparent to the employer, and the employee can move between companies without issue (or even take time off work, as long as they still pay)
This way the difference between an H1B and a real citizen employee is transparent to the employer, and the employee can move between companies without issue (or even take time off work, as long as they still pay)
No. The employer should be required to pay market rate, plus whatever they bid on the slot. Now, you could convince me that the additional fee is evenly split between the employee and the employer.
Any excess money the employee has is either spent in driving up the local rental market, enriching landlords, or sent back to their home country. Minimizing rental competition is in the best interest of US citizens. Minimizing exporting money is in the best interest of the US government.
Any excess money the employee has is either spent in driving up the local rental market, enriching landlords, or sent back to their home country. Minimizing rental competition is in the best interest of US citizens. Minimizing exporting money is in the best interest of the US government.
This won’t happen, that would not be a market equilibrium. What will happen is that the sun of fee and immigrant salary will match the non-immigrant salary.
It makes no difference who pays, save for what you propose about free movement between companies.
If it is paid by the employee, then companies would probably reimburse at least part of it. If it is paid by the company, it is already factored in the .salary amount. In the end, both employer and employee only care about the net amount the pay or get.
If it is paid by the employee, then companies would probably reimburse at least part of it. If it is paid by the company, it is already factored in the .salary amount. In the end, both employer and employee only care about the net amount the pay or get.
Absolutely it does. Let’s say that the market rate for a job is $100k. The company, over time, has a bunch of “overpaid” senior employees making $200k. Now they want to lay off all their senior employees and replace them with H1B. Currently they must pay the H1B $100k. With the additional tax, they now must pay $100k + (tax) * (some multiplier due to laying off US employees), which could bring the cost of the H1B worker much closer to the US workers salary of $200k.
Now let’s say that the H1B, when he receives his $100k salary, goes and rents an apartment. He pays $2000/month for the apartment and lives in a nice luxury rental, and the apartment complex has one less available unit and charges $2100/month to future renters. The H1B is sending $30k/year back home. Instead, let’s say the H1B must also pay a $40k tax/year from their $100k salary. Now the H1B isn’t renting a luxury rental. They’re sharing a bedroom in a house, and sending $5k/year back home. The luxury rental stays on the market longer, and the next renter pays $1900/month, instead of $2000/month.
The key is that the H1Bs will take significantly lower than the “market” price which companies are being forced to pay. The companies are willing to pay significantly more than “market” price in order to displace their older workers. The claim for this system to work is that there aren’t enough US citizens to perform the work, and yet they’re laying off older US workers.
Now let’s say that the H1B, when he receives his $100k salary, goes and rents an apartment. He pays $2000/month for the apartment and lives in a nice luxury rental, and the apartment complex has one less available unit and charges $2100/month to future renters. The H1B is sending $30k/year back home. Instead, let’s say the H1B must also pay a $40k tax/year from their $100k salary. Now the H1B isn’t renting a luxury rental. They’re sharing a bedroom in a house, and sending $5k/year back home. The luxury rental stays on the market longer, and the next renter pays $1900/month, instead of $2000/month.
The key is that the H1Bs will take significantly lower than the “market” price which companies are being forced to pay. The companies are willing to pay significantly more than “market” price in order to displace their older workers. The claim for this system to work is that there aren’t enough US citizens to perform the work, and yet they’re laying off older US workers.
This can only possibly work if education in US is made cheaper. Otherwise it's just free money to US universities, that are already swimming in money
They already do (or did) this. It's how I got into programming. Company got a grant and put together a training program.
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I say we should have open borders
"And so we are left with problems like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s recent announcement that it can’t find enough skilled workers to get its new Arizona chip plants ready in time"
Wasn't this shown to be false because skilled workers exists. But just not willing to work for peanuts?
Wasn't this shown to be false because skilled workers exists. But just not willing to work for peanuts?
Personally I always felt H1B visas should be awarded on a monthly auction. Decide how much immigration we want, then let whichever companies will pay the highest salaries get the slots. This guarantees that we get the most valuable immigrants and makes it a lot harder to drive down local wages because low salary bids won’t win visa slot auctions.
> Personally I always felt H1B visas should be awarded on a monthly auction. Decide how much immigration we want, then let whichever companies will pay the highest salaries get the slots.
H-1B is a non-immigrant (but dual intent) visa capped annually at less than 1/10 the level of the cap on immigrant visas, it has very little to do with “how much immigration we want”.
H-1B is a non-immigrant (but dual intent) visa capped annually at less than 1/10 the level of the cap on immigrant visas, it has very little to do with “how much immigration we want”.
Thank you for the clarification. I think it’s super important that these facts are presented accurately and I love the correction.
If we switched H-1B to a salary auction system I would additionally love if it came with a streamlined 2-year path to a green card, because if they won the salary auction and stayed on for two years we’d know these are truly the most valuable workers on the planet and we’d benefit from them joining our workforce permanently.
That said, I understand a complicated change like that would be a major uphill battle and not directly related to our subtopic.
If we switched H-1B to a salary auction system I would additionally love if it came with a streamlined 2-year path to a green card, because if they won the salary auction and stayed on for two years we’d know these are truly the most valuable workers on the planet and we’d benefit from them joining our workforce permanently.
That said, I understand a complicated change like that would be a major uphill battle and not directly related to our subtopic.
Economists have been suggesting that the US should move to an H1B auction for decades.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/h1b-visa-lottery-auction-tech-w...
An auction would be good for everyone aside from companies that are abusing the system to get cheap labor that's basically trapped in the US.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/h1b-visa-lottery-auction-tech-w...
An auction would be good for everyone aside from companies that are abusing the system to get cheap labor that's basically trapped in the US.
how about nurses and all other specialized professions that are not IT?
Wages for those will rise accordingly, benefitting local nurses (but raising costs for nursing)
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You could have auctions per profession.
You could, but the whole point of the auctions is to allocate the visas economically efficiently, which this would undo.
No it would not undo it, it would allocate the visas economically efficient within professions, while also allowing the government to prioritize some professions based on concerns other then economic efficiency.
Here in Norway we do something similar but for import quotas.
We have high import taxes to protect our national beef production, but we don't produce enough beef locally to satisfy demand. So near the end of the year the government determines how much we need to import to satisfy demand, create quotas for that amount and auctions off the quotas.
Seems to work well enough AFAIK.
We have high import taxes to protect our national beef production, but we don't produce enough beef locally to satisfy demand. So near the end of the year the government determines how much we need to import to satisfy demand, create quotas for that amount and auctions off the quotas.
Seems to work well enough AFAIK.
Interesting idea. I'd argue that while salary correlates with value, it's not the same though. It seems most likely to me that this mechanism would just reserve the privilege of employing immigrants to a few high income sectors, rather than filter the most skilled immigrants evenly across sectors.
To make it more concrete, it would be nice if NGOs could hire foreign talent just as effectively as Google can.
To make it more concrete, it would be nice if NGOs could hire foreign talent just as effectively as Google can.
I'm split on this. In the case where they need someone who has specific local knowledge and connections in the foreign locale they're serving, it makes sense. But I fear this would still be used to hire full-stack devs at non-profits for $65,000/year.
I don't think NGOs can currently sponsor H1Bs... But maybe I'm wrong...
not every NGOs, only universities and associated non-profities can sponsor any H-1B without going through the lottery
"Universities and related nonprofit entities, nonprofit research organizations and government research organizations are exempt from the cap"
"Universities and related nonprofit entities, nonprofit research organizations and government research organizations are exempt from the cap"
I like this idea, i always thought a salary floor of 150k-200k was a good idea, but the auction seems even better.
Not just low ages.
Insane work hours. Long stretches of unpaid overtime sometimes without weekends. No autonomy. No freedom. No say. Oh and shift work.
TSMC not being able to find workers has nothing in the US has nothing to do with a shortage of workers. They're just terrible to their people.
So they'll get H1B workers who are then basically trapped and can be mistreated.
The current system is terrible for everyone. Bad for the economy by keeping smart hard working people out. Bad for the workers who make it here who need to put up with TSMC. And bad for local Americans because H1B wage lower bounds aren't high enough.
Insane work hours. Long stretches of unpaid overtime sometimes without weekends. No autonomy. No freedom. No say. Oh and shift work.
TSMC not being able to find workers has nothing in the US has nothing to do with a shortage of workers. They're just terrible to their people.
So they'll get H1B workers who are then basically trapped and can be mistreated.
The current system is terrible for everyone. Bad for the economy by keeping smart hard working people out. Bad for the workers who make it here who need to put up with TSMC. And bad for local Americans because H1B wage lower bounds aren't high enough.
When I read a recent article, the US workers were complaining about "too much" freedom and autonomy. TSMC management would say "build this", with no blueprints or milestones.
"They keep saying we're slowing them down, but they're not giving us the information we need. Most of us are capable of doing it if you gave us the correct information."
Also safety was not important.
"They keep saying we're slowing them down, but they're not giving us the information we need. Most of us are capable of doing it if you gave us the correct information."
Also safety was not important.
In Singapore they have the following system: if you want to hire a foreign worker you need to pay they more than the local worker for the same position. This ensures foreign workers don't steal jobs from locals. Another good thing is that there is no hard limit on the number of foreign workers you can hire.
Technically the H1B system is designed to work that way, but in practice people don't believe it does because of the games you can play with titles and job descriptions.
> because of the games you can play
Plus, when the workforce is 99% H1B visa holders, what does "local worker pay" even mean?
Plus, when the workforce is 99% H1B visa holders, what does "local worker pay" even mean?
They need that extra pay because private housing costs are really high.
Singapore housing costs are comparable to NYC's, SF's, Paris', London's etc...
The thing is that you don't need a car (cars are super expensive though)
So all in all Singapore is not expensive, average to low, compare with major first world cities
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Well the problem is that Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing workers work long hours for middling wages, so for semiconductor manufacturing in America to be financially viable in a global marketplace, something has to give.
what's moral theory that says if an american refuses the job because they have better options, it's unethical to import a person from a poorer country to do it who doesn't have a better option?
the answer to me seems obvious.
if i lived in honduras and you said i could come to america but i had to work for tsmc, what's the chance i decline?
the answer to me seems obvious.
if i lived in honduras and you said i could come to america but i had to work for tsmc, what's the chance i decline?
This is a recurring theme with MattY's work. He takes any statement by a company or government body at face value and turns it into ammo for a certain political agenda. His position as a hot take generator in favor of centrism (in the US political context, so read it as economically neoliberal and culturally soft liberal) means he often avoids criticism due to his banality. But he has no useful insights at all, especially when he is working off of corpo/government propaganda.
I like the idea of a points system like Australia has, but I'm wary of the excessive emphasis on STEM, and I'm even less enthusiastic about the idea of empowering universities to "sell" access to US residency and work rights through overpriced MS degrees, many of which are, frankly, bullshit cash cows.
Keep in mind, in Australia, plumbers and electricians get the maximum points for professional skills. So would nurses, pilots, and even lawyers (though they must be admitted to the Australian bar).
Hell will freeze over before the US lawyers who write the immigration system rules agree that foreign lawyers and patent agents should have access to the US job market the way they think STEM workers should.
Keep in mind, in Australia, plumbers and electricians get the maximum points for professional skills. So would nurses, pilots, and even lawyers (though they must be admitted to the Australian bar).
Hell will freeze over before the US lawyers who write the immigration system rules agree that foreign lawyers and patent agents should have access to the US job market the way they think STEM workers should.
The macroeconomic models underlying such economist proposals [1] are complex unwieldy frameworks that can be coaxed to prove whatever you want to prove. Biases are injected at all steps of the process: the data collection, the construction of the model and its application. Furthermore they have a good track record of never predicting anything that actually happens.
Yet it is clear that important policy questions cannot be settled by shouting.
For the longest time the challenge for (macro)economists was to break-down their tools and make them understandable to wider audiences. Separate ideology from empirical fact.
You can't operate in a democracy by arguing that some black box said so (incidentally a lesson also for the various AI acolytes).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_scoring
Yet it is clear that important policy questions cannot be settled by shouting.
For the longest time the challenge for (macro)economists was to break-down their tools and make them understandable to wider audiences. Separate ideology from empirical fact.
You can't operate in a democracy by arguing that some black box said so (incidentally a lesson also for the various AI acolytes).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_scoring
I recently read this https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2022/08/22/what-... by Forbes, which pointed out that the popular idea of exempting STEM PhDs from green card caps is primarily procedural:
> In July 2022, hopes were high the FY 2023 defense authorization bill would include an amendment on green cards for individuals with Ph.D.s in science and engineering. In what has become a familiar story, it was not to be.
> “According to a Congressional source, the House Rules Committee did not rule the amendment in order because the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the provision would cost $1 billion over 10 years,” as reported in July. “To address the issue and offset the cost, a $7,500 fee was added for the individuals who received permanent residence under the provision. However, the House Ways and Means Committee said the fee could not be included because it amounted to a tax and, therefore, violated Clause 5(a) of Rule 21 of the rules of the House of Representatives.”
That's just the first order reason. The second-order cause is that there is just not enough political will to get this over the finish line -- nobody wants to spend enough political capital pushing it through all the little things that can stop a bill, so a random reason pops up every time. All the hurdles here can be overcome -- just nobody in a position to do something cares enough about it compared to all the other legislative priorities they have.
As for the reason no congressman wants to spend political capital on this subject? I don't know enough about congressional politics, internal or external, to say.
The primary takeaway I have about this whole saga is that it's not enough for a bill to be without much opposition -- it must have people actively pushing it through all the little vetoes that different corners of congress built into the procedure of passing bills. It's not opposition that kills bills -- it's indifference.
> In July 2022, hopes were high the FY 2023 defense authorization bill would include an amendment on green cards for individuals with Ph.D.s in science and engineering. In what has become a familiar story, it was not to be.
> “According to a Congressional source, the House Rules Committee did not rule the amendment in order because the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the provision would cost $1 billion over 10 years,” as reported in July. “To address the issue and offset the cost, a $7,500 fee was added for the individuals who received permanent residence under the provision. However, the House Ways and Means Committee said the fee could not be included because it amounted to a tax and, therefore, violated Clause 5(a) of Rule 21 of the rules of the House of Representatives.”
That's just the first order reason. The second-order cause is that there is just not enough political will to get this over the finish line -- nobody wants to spend enough political capital pushing it through all the little things that can stop a bill, so a random reason pops up every time. All the hurdles here can be overcome -- just nobody in a position to do something cares enough about it compared to all the other legislative priorities they have.
As for the reason no congressman wants to spend political capital on this subject? I don't know enough about congressional politics, internal or external, to say.
The primary takeaway I have about this whole saga is that it's not enough for a bill to be without much opposition -- it must have people actively pushing it through all the little vetoes that different corners of congress built into the procedure of passing bills. It's not opposition that kills bills -- it's indifference.
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> the idea that we should make green cards more easily available to foreign-born STEM graduates.
Why, just so companies can have cheaper wages?
What benefit does America get by having more foreign born and trained tech workers?
Why not make it easier for police, doctors, nurses, social workers, and teachers instead?
Why, just so companies can have cheaper wages?
What benefit does America get by having more foreign born and trained tech workers?
Why not make it easier for police, doctors, nurses, social workers, and teachers instead?
Because taking in talented people from all over the world will make your country extremely strong and rich.
Talented, highly educated people are a huge net-positive on the economy and everybody else profits from that.
Talented, highly educated people are a huge net-positive on the economy and everybody else profits from that.
If nothing else then because it works. Immigrants have founded 51% of our top 500 billion+ unicorns. Indian entrepreneurs alone account for 66 out of 500. How many jobs is that creating? Millions at the very least. At 1% of the population, Indian immigrants pay 6% of all taxes. These people also will become/are American citizens.
You have to be a hardcore racist and/or an idiot to argue with data that overwhelming.
You have to be a hardcore racist and/or an idiot to argue with data that overwhelming.
It basically costs nothing and it's a huge advantage for a country to be the dominant sink for international talent migration. Most countries have net brain drain where their smartest people leave... to go to the US. That the US has the opposite problem is really a trivial issue to complain about, and anyone invested in its success should want the imbalance to continue.
And frankly if you're an American high-skilled worker who is concerned about foreign talent "replacing" you (an absurd idea in a labor market where demand continues to outpace supply, and will continue to do so as long as technology advances), then are you actually as highly skilled as you think you are? If you're being outcompeted by foreign talent then you need to "get good" - it's a skill issue.
The argument for foreign workers replacing domestic workers in unskilled jobs makes more sense, because the demand is for commoditized labor and there's negligible difference between employees beyond how little they're willing to be paid. But for high skilled work, by definition, it's your skills that should differentiate you. If they don't, then that's your problem to solve. It shouldn't be up to the rest of society to lower the floor of high-skilled work to accommodate your lack of skill.
And frankly if you're an American high-skilled worker who is concerned about foreign talent "replacing" you (an absurd idea in a labor market where demand continues to outpace supply, and will continue to do so as long as technology advances), then are you actually as highly skilled as you think you are? If you're being outcompeted by foreign talent then you need to "get good" - it's a skill issue.
The argument for foreign workers replacing domestic workers in unskilled jobs makes more sense, because the demand is for commoditized labor and there's negligible difference between employees beyond how little they're willing to be paid. But for high skilled work, by definition, it's your skills that should differentiate you. If they don't, then that's your problem to solve. It shouldn't be up to the rest of society to lower the floor of high-skilled work to accommodate your lack of skill.
For now, H1Bs don't replace truly highly skilled workers. What they do have an impact on is companies not investing in hiring junior employees and training them up. Thus, the disadvantaged people that can't attend college, who would customarily be trained by their employers, are left out in the cold when you can just import already trained people from overseas.
Your comment is very atypical in this thread. It is the only one that puts the impact of the visa in perspective. The displacement of risk from company to employee.
This is my main concern of H1B's impact, lack of training or opportunity for existing candidates. It is telling how a few other comments mention the skills gap but all of them focus on it being a employees problem and to solve it they just need more college or training. While I can't argue with the positive impacts of H1B's creating value there is a continuing cost imposed on society to make the individual take the risk of training instead of the company cultivating a workforce. I think individuals do need to have some skin in the game when they receive a investment from a company but by completely displacing the cost on to workers and making up for lack of investment by allowing more H1B's seems to be a shortsighted solution.
Works for whom?
You argument is hinged as a defense against anti-immigration.
I’m not anti immigration. I am against simply making it easier for software developers to get visa’s, that doesn’t make America any better (than giving visas to non-developers)
Creating jobs that only go to skilled tech workers, and/or tech workers who live in tech hubs isn’t much of a benefit to America.
Create well paying jobs that any american can do with tradeschool or on the job training—those are jobs we need.
Not workers willing to make an internet enabled juice machine.
And if you have a great idea, have funding and customers, sure we can give you a visa, but in exchange the US tax payer gets 20% stake.
You argument is hinged as a defense against anti-immigration.
I’m not anti immigration. I am against simply making it easier for software developers to get visa’s, that doesn’t make America any better (than giving visas to non-developers)
Creating jobs that only go to skilled tech workers, and/or tech workers who live in tech hubs isn’t much of a benefit to America.
Create well paying jobs that any american can do with tradeschool or on the job training—those are jobs we need.
Not workers willing to make an internet enabled juice machine.
And if you have a great idea, have funding and customers, sure we can give you a visa, but in exchange the US tax payer gets 20% stake.
asu_thomas(2)
The only source I could find on the tax discussion was a Georgia senator. When doing the math, on just income and not even payroll taxes, taking 6% of the Individual Income Taxes collected in 2022, 2,632 billion, and dividing it by the estimated number of Indians, 4.5 million, gives me at least about 35k collected in taxes per Indian. If I bothered to exclude kids and include appropriate payroll taxes, that number would be even higher. Anyways, since the IRS doesn’t collect the info, I think he might be doing some napkin math.
To address the crux of your point, America should continue to be a place where the best and the brightest head towards to start companies. However, I think it’s fair to value quality over quantity. We only need to look up north to see the potential pitfalls of loose migration policies.
To address the crux of your point, America should continue to be a place where the best and the brightest head towards to start companies. However, I think it’s fair to value quality over quantity. We only need to look up north to see the potential pitfalls of loose migration policies.
$35K taxes implies about $120K salary, which in tech circles is a very reasonable salary. In places like Northern California, most people on H-1B pay much more than that in taxes.
> You have to be a hardcore racist and/or an idiot to argue with data that overwhelming.
Your argument hinges on natives not achieving similar results with I’m not sure is true.
Given history, I’d say it’s likely the natives would succeed (as there’s precedent for their ancestors succeeding). However it would come at a higher cost to the “business” - really, the few at the top who are disproportionately profiting.
Furthermore, given the state of the import’s homeland it’s likely the immigrants only succeed because of environment in America, not because of anything unique they bring. And there’s no precedent for them maintaining - much less creating - the culture that allowed them to immigrate to a new land and be so wildly successful.
On top of that, investing in a native population has long term benefits that vastly outweigh importing talent for immediate gain. Unfortunately our politicians are choosing the opposite and sacrificing long term health for short term profits.
Your argument hinges on natives not achieving similar results with I’m not sure is true.
Given history, I’d say it’s likely the natives would succeed (as there’s precedent for their ancestors succeeding). However it would come at a higher cost to the “business” - really, the few at the top who are disproportionately profiting.
Furthermore, given the state of the import’s homeland it’s likely the immigrants only succeed because of environment in America, not because of anything unique they bring. And there’s no precedent for them maintaining - much less creating - the culture that allowed them to immigrate to a new land and be so wildly successful.
On top of that, investing in a native population has long term benefits that vastly outweigh importing talent for immediate gain. Unfortunately our politicians are choosing the opposite and sacrificing long term health for short term profits.
It enables the US to weaken other countries by draining away their intellectual capacity. Think of it as 'Cognitive Imperialism' and then it fits in well with the historical patterns of how the US treats the world.
> It enables the US to weaken other countries by draining away their intellectual capacity
Are you implying that if they don't emigrate they'll be properly utilized in a way that is a threat to the US's current hegemony? If so, why aren't these countries doing that now?
Are you implying that if they don't emigrate they'll be properly utilized in a way that is a threat to the US's current hegemony? If so, why aren't these countries doing that now?
Well, perhaps because they can't afford it?
So, why should ppl stay in these countries where they cannot use their skills?
Well, that's the entire problem now, isn't it?
You think brain drain won’t happen if US doesn’t do so? It will always happen, people always want to move to more developed countries
That is how the world works and is working until now. I don't find any surprising effect. Do you?
US Congress will never fix the immigration system. Not my lifetime at least.
The reason is rooted into how PACs and in turn mega money and corporations work behind the scene to fund and elect politicians. It’s advantageous for companies such as Google or Amazon to have a pool of labor that cannot leave their job without jeopardizing the immigration status of them and their family. It keeps competition down and less turnover.
The status quo also serves easily talking point for politicians to flame their base. Immigration is no longer a policy issue as it should be. It’s now a way for politicians to score easy points. One side thinks it’s an attempt on electoral demographics change while other side wants broad reforms under the umbrella of “comprehensive immigration reform” - for them even skilled worker immigration I should be tied to the whole dreamers act. At the end it’s not going anywhere with the current status quo. Backlogs are ever growing and some of the case dates are as long as 50years.
The reason is rooted into how PACs and in turn mega money and corporations work behind the scene to fund and elect politicians. It’s advantageous for companies such as Google or Amazon to have a pool of labor that cannot leave their job without jeopardizing the immigration status of them and their family. It keeps competition down and less turnover.
The status quo also serves easily talking point for politicians to flame their base. Immigration is no longer a policy issue as it should be. It’s now a way for politicians to score easy points. One side thinks it’s an attempt on electoral demographics change while other side wants broad reforms under the umbrella of “comprehensive immigration reform” - for them even skilled worker immigration I should be tied to the whole dreamers act. At the end it’s not going anywhere with the current status quo. Backlogs are ever growing and some of the case dates are as long as 50years.
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> U.S. government as being a net cost to the U.S. economy rather than a net benefit.
How about you allow anyone who manages to get a job with decent salary? Let's say $250000 year?! Residential permit obviously includes family. Very fair, very transparent and easy to implement.
This "dynamic scoring" is unfair, untransparent, and will just lead to mistreatment of foreign workers by large companies!
How about you allow anyone who manages to get a job with decent salary? Let's say $250000 year?! Residential permit obviously includes family. Very fair, very transparent and easy to implement.
This "dynamic scoring" is unfair, untransparent, and will just lead to mistreatment of foreign workers by large companies!
I'm not sure what you mean by "dynamic scoring" here - maybe you mean a points based immigration system? The article is not about this. It's about how Congress scores legislation based on its economic impact, and is advocating for using a system called "dynamic scoring" for scoring immigration law. It has nothing to do with how workers are treated by companies.
Fair point, I got the meaning wrong.
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Someone getting a high salary doesn't signal the country's overall prospect. That might be just a "take" case where that job was supposed to be served by a US citizen.
Any US citizen (or citizens in any country) doesn't want fair competition against immigrants/foreign laborers. They accept immigrants because it (is supposed to) enlarge the pie to share. That's why things like dynamic scoring attempt to capture a bigger picture.
I'm personally skeptical about metrics with a lot of guess work, but I appreciate the effort here. The impact of the immigration is just hard to quantify.
Any US citizen (or citizens in any country) doesn't want fair competition against immigrants/foreign laborers. They accept immigrants because it (is supposed to) enlarge the pie to share. That's why things like dynamic scoring attempt to capture a bigger picture.
I'm personally skeptical about metrics with a lot of guess work, but I appreciate the effort here. The impact of the immigration is just hard to quantify.
My case is more about motivating smart people to come into US. Current system is broken.
Immigration system is byzantine and unpredictable. Person can even get kicked out with very short notice. And frankly salary in US quite often does not even cover expenses (rent, insurances, taxes...).
Semiconductor engineer from Taiwan has options in mainland China, Singapore, UAE... If you count expenses (living, travel and legal), cultural values, taxes... This engineer may actually make more money outside of US!
Immigration system is byzantine and unpredictable. Person can even get kicked out with very short notice. And frankly salary in US quite often does not even cover expenses (rent, insurances, taxes...).
Semiconductor engineer from Taiwan has options in mainland China, Singapore, UAE... If you count expenses (living, travel and legal), cultural values, taxes... This engineer may actually make more money outside of US!
Dynamic scoring sounds great on the surface, but I agree with the commenters that it essentially allows for "making shit up" to drive an agenda.
To make a better case, the CBO or other entity should be making predictions today and tracking how well their prediction panned out in reality. Ideally, there'd be a built-in mechanism of only allowing dynamic scoring when there is > X years of accurate predictions at > YY% and that if the average accuracy dips below that threshold then dynamic scoring is disallowed until it gets back above.
To make a better case, the CBO or other entity should be making predictions today and tracking how well their prediction panned out in reality. Ideally, there'd be a built-in mechanism of only allowing dynamic scoring when there is > X years of accurate predictions at > YY% and that if the average accuracy dips below that threshold then dynamic scoring is disallowed until it gets back above.
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In my graduating class for undergrad, there were like 3x as many journalism majors as there were CS majors. And it wasn't a particularly good journalism school either. Same for other majors like sports medicine, political science, etc
I don't really get it tbh. Why even bother paying for college if you're just going to major in BS?
I don't really get it tbh. Why even bother paying for college if you're just going to major in BS?
My sister quickly dropped out of getting an English degree. She just had no realistic idea or plans for what to do after HS, and college was pushed as the thing to do.
When I was in HS, councilors looked at me like I was an idiot when I said I didn’t want to go to college after HS (admittedly I regret it, but didn’t affect my “success”)
When I was in HS, councilors looked at me like I was an idiot when I said I didn’t want to go to college after HS (admittedly I regret it, but didn’t affect my “success”)
Getting any degree opens up employment and immigration opportunities that aren’t there without one. Plus college is fun and you build social capital there.
There is clearly a difference between a 200k degree in journalism and a 10k boot camp diploma or degree in CS
It seems you could learn more, have a lot more fun, and make many more friends, if you pocketed the 190k and used the money for 4 years of debauchery around the world.
It seems you could learn more, have a lot more fun, and make many more friends, if you pocketed the 190k and used the money for 4 years of debauchery around the world.
What year? My sense is that the Humanities have seem steep enrollment declines as the new reality sets in.
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Politicians, especially republicans, don't actually care about CBO scores, as evidenced by many many tax cuts and military expenditures.
That they haven't done this just means they don't want to, a Mitt Romney here or there notwithstanding
That they haven't done this just means they don't want to, a Mitt Romney here or there notwithstanding
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All of these immigration programs are labor arbitrage designed to reduce wages for US citizens...supply and demand. If you are a US citizen software developer and ever wondered why you are not able to earn more money you can thank the special interests that flung the doors open with the H1B program to reduce worker costs. The part of that which is genius is that the wealthy who benefit economically from this have figured out that it is easy to manipulate the masses into thinking that it is morally wrong to block these immigrants to come to the US. The wealthy continue to get wealthier and the rest see their standard of living continue to go down.
Also, while in theory, these programs are supposed to attract the best and the brightest, the reality is different. In software, some that come in are good, but a large number have substandard skills.
Also, while in theory, these programs are supposed to attract the best and the brightest, the reality is different. In software, some that come in are good, but a large number have substandard skills.
> If you are a US citizen software developer and ever wondered why you are not able to earn more money you can thank the special interests that flung the doors open with the H1B program to reduce worker costs.
You would be right if most startups were not already hiring mostly remote engineers from LATAM. If you can't compete against H1Bs (mostly Indian outsourcing companies) as a US based software engineer, you definitely can't compete against LATAM remote engineers with 10 yrs of experience and costs $100k all in (no payroll taxes, no benefits).
The real difference between someone who resides physically in the US vs a remote worker is that the person physically in the US:
- pays taxes
- raises families
- starts companies
You would be right if most startups were not already hiring mostly remote engineers from LATAM. If you can't compete against H1Bs (mostly Indian outsourcing companies) as a US based software engineer, you definitely can't compete against LATAM remote engineers with 10 yrs of experience and costs $100k all in (no payroll taxes, no benefits).
The real difference between someone who resides physically in the US vs a remote worker is that the person physically in the US:
- pays taxes
- raises families
- starts companies
If remote LATAM is that much of a game changer then we should see US software salaries continue to go down and a salary equalization that ends up being much lower than the current US market rates.
It's hard to measure the actual impact of LATAM remote or other types remote on US salaries. It is possible that if US companies didn't have the ability to hire remote engineers, the US salary would be 2x as much. The US hires a HUGE number of remote foreign engineers - it's just not reported in labor statistics.
Your original comment suggested the H1B folks actually push down US salaries. If that is true, then LATAM workers who work US hours should also apply a downward pressure on US salaries. My company hires like 30 LATAM engineers, 10 US engineers and 0 H1Bs. We simply will not hire junior US engineers - completely idiotic use of capital. However we will pay 300k for a staff / principle US based engineer. That engineer will lead a team of 5 LATAM engineers and level them up. This model is going to have a downward pressure on US based salaries if enough companies adopt it.
Your original comment suggested the H1B folks actually push down US salaries. If that is true, then LATAM workers who work US hours should also apply a downward pressure on US salaries. My company hires like 30 LATAM engineers, 10 US engineers and 0 H1Bs. We simply will not hire junior US engineers - completely idiotic use of capital. However we will pay 300k for a staff / principle US based engineer. That engineer will lead a team of 5 LATAM engineers and level them up. This model is going to have a downward pressure on US based salaries if enough companies adopt it.
The difficulties involved in managing offshore talent are not solely due to remote work and timezones. And managing LATAM talent doesn't involve timezone issues.
Companies that really think that they can benefit from foreign knowledge labor are readily capable of opening foreign subsidiaries. No immigration bureaucracy gets in the way of that.
You could remove the H1B quotas tomorrow, and the fact remains that employers will prefer American talent when they can get it. Because cultural barriers are cultural barriers regardless of immigration status.
Companies that really think that they can benefit from foreign knowledge labor are readily capable of opening foreign subsidiaries. No immigration bureaucracy gets in the way of that.
You could remove the H1B quotas tomorrow, and the fact remains that employers will prefer American talent when they can get it. Because cultural barriers are cultural barriers regardless of immigration status.
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coding123(2)
The new immigrant is denied some basic rights like being able to find a new job without employer permission and the america suffers because it might not get quality. Because unless the situation in your home country is really desperate or you are in your early 20s, any decent experienced professional would balk at the terms in the H1B visa.
As for the standard, "immigrant keeping wages down thing". Maybe the US can look at the "Shareholder Value", "Stock Buybacks" and "Monopolies are efficient" philosophies pervading the economic establishment for "keeping the wages down".