U.S. transferred a record $80.9B worth of military equipment 2023(airandspaceforces.com)
airandspaceforces.com
U.S. transferred a record $80.9B worth of military equipment 2023
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/foreign-military-sales-new-record-2023/
32 comments
Nobody has the counterfactual answer to this.
Proponents will speak to deterrence and preservation of ‘liberty’/non-despotism, opponents will speak to the very real death toll inflicted by these weapons.
Proponents will speak to deterrence and preservation of ‘liberty’/non-despotism, opponents will speak to the very real death toll inflicted by these weapons.
Well, what do the prediction markets think?
Markets are unable to lie (as they are deeply/intrinsically connected to reality).
Markets are unable to lie (as they are deeply/intrinsically connected to reality).
That's ridiculous, markets can absolutely "lie". Markets are aggregates of particpant sentiment and are wrong if that sentiment is wrong. One clear example is when a company is committing fraud that boosts their stock price.
Human beings, in aggregate, tend to be pretty good at predicting some things that individual humans can't (classic examples being number of objects in a jar or weight of an animal) and markets are a weighted and incentived system that exploits this property.
Prediction markets are better at predicting somethings and worse at others and their fallibility is also dependent on how well they're are structured.
Human beings, in aggregate, tend to be pretty good at predicting some things that individual humans can't (classic examples being number of objects in a jar or weight of an animal) and markets are a weighted and incentived system that exploits this property.
Prediction markets are better at predicting somethings and worse at others and their fallibility is also dependent on how well they're are structured.
No, markets are connected to whatever information is publicly known at a given point in time. Which can be quite far from the truth.
This is how a 20 year military build up creates influence and diminishes our enemies without America fighting a war.
when war is a profit generator, there will always be those who invest in war, lead war, advocate war, justify war
in the late 1800s there were some very bitter and clever political cartoons in newspapers showing the distance between investors and the actual conditions that their wars create
nobody wins in war
in the late 1800s there were some very bitter and clever political cartoons in newspapers showing the distance between investors and the actual conditions that their wars create
nobody wins in war
You can blame Mr. Putin for starting a full scale war in Europe the like it has never seen since the second world war.
Profit or not, the price of security is assuredly all the other things we could be doing or focusing our attention on such as medical research, cleaner energy, etc.
But the fact that nobody wins in war, not even the Russian even in victory will acts a deterrence to further conflicts, as it is already a strategic defeat for Russia.
Profit or not, the price of security is assuredly all the other things we could be doing or focusing our attention on such as medical research, cleaner energy, etc.
But the fact that nobody wins in war, not even the Russian even in victory will acts a deterrence to further conflicts, as it is already a strategic defeat for Russia.
> like it has never seen since the second world war.
The dissolution of Yugoslavia imo would count as this
The dissolution of Yugoslavia imo would count as this
Does that count assets left in Afghanistan in 2021?
Well, since the article title says 2023 I'm wondering why you're bringing up the (excellent) withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021, successfully ending a forever war.
>since the article title says 2023 I'm wondering why you're bringing up the (excellent) withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021
It says record, so my question is: Which was bigger, the value of the assets left in Afghanistan in 2021, or the 81 billion transferred in 2023?
It says record, so my question is: Which was bigger, the value of the assets left in Afghanistan in 2021, or the 81 billion transferred in 2023?
We left about $7 billion of equipment in Afghanistan[0], and only gave them about $18 billion of equipment in total since 2001 (including that $7 billion). This was part of a detailed Pentagon report commissioned by the House of Representatives, specifically the Subcommittee on National Security (part of the Committee on Oversight and Reform).
The US did, however, take control of nearly all of Afghanistan's foreign currency reserves (between $4.2-9.5 billion, I don't have the energy to parse all of this)[1]. That left them with at most only about $400 million which was stored in cash in the Presidential Palace, assuming Ashraf Ghani didn't take all of it with him to the UAE.
Warning: Source [1] is much more biased than source [0]. There's a lot of misleading verbiage and mealy-mouthed doublespeak.
0: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/evaluations/SIGAR-23-04-IP.pdf
1: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46879
The US did, however, take control of nearly all of Afghanistan's foreign currency reserves (between $4.2-9.5 billion, I don't have the energy to parse all of this)[1]. That left them with at most only about $400 million which was stored in cash in the Presidential Palace, assuming Ashraf Ghani didn't take all of it with him to the UAE.
Warning: Source [1] is much more biased than source [0]. There's a lot of misleading verbiage and mealy-mouthed doublespeak.
0: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/evaluations/SIGAR-23-04-IP.pdf
1: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46879
Logically, it would imply that it's smaller.
Money quotes:
> From 2021-23, FMS sales averaged $55.9 billion per year, a 21.9 percent increase over the 2020-22 average of $45.8 billion per year.
Followed by:
> Poland was the single largest FMS customer in fiscal 2023, with over $30 billion in transfers.
I wonder if the article boils down to "Poland bought $30B of military equipment all of a sudden".
> From 2021-23, FMS sales averaged $55.9 billion per year, a 21.9 percent increase over the 2020-22 average of $45.8 billion per year.
Followed by:
> Poland was the single largest FMS customer in fiscal 2023, with over $30 billion in transfers.
I wonder if the article boils down to "Poland bought $30B of military equipment all of a sudden".
[deleted]
The world is feeling so free.
With all this hardware, you can even really touch the freedom.
I used to roll my eyes at US military spending as well, but the last few years have honestly made me grateful for it
Yep - plus it also helps that we have the Atlantic and a lot of Europe between us and a potential invasion.
Absolutely. The world is better off because Putin is being resisted.
We (as the US) had a golden opportunity to reinvest our peace dividend after 1991 but we squandered it in a useless war for nearly 20 years after 9/11. But we have no choice but to reinvest in defense now.
We (as the US) had a golden opportunity to reinvest our peace dividend after 1991 but we squandered it in a useless war for nearly 20 years after 9/11. But we have no choice but to reinvest in defense now.
Why worth it to create democratic state in Ukraine but not in Iraq?
In both cases, the democracies created are flawed, but certainly more democratic than what came before.
In both cases, the democracies created are flawed, but certainly more democratic than what came before.
Ukraine is a special case.
When the Soviet Union disintegrated, the Ukraine was left with the world’s 3rd largest nuclear weapons arsenal. They gave up every single one of them in exchange for a promise from the western world to help them defend themselves from aggression.
If we don’t live up to that promise, how can we ever hope to limit nuclear weapons proliferation anywhere else?
When the Soviet Union disintegrated, the Ukraine was left with the world’s 3rd largest nuclear weapons arsenal. They gave up every single one of them in exchange for a promise from the western world to help them defend themselves from aggression.
If we don’t live up to that promise, how can we ever hope to limit nuclear weapons proliferation anywhere else?
Ukraine did not have the codes to operate the weapons it gave up - so this was essentially costless.
Moreso, most people did not consider Ukraine a true democracy in the 90s thru to Euromaidan
Nonetheless I do think the non-proliferation argument is a good one for distinguishing the two cases, thanks.
Moreso, most people did not consider Ukraine a true democracy in the 90s thru to Euromaidan
Nonetheless I do think the non-proliferation argument is a good one for distinguishing the two cases, thanks.
There were 1,240 Soviet nuclear warheads stationed on Ukrainian territory when it gained independence in 1991 [1]. At the very least, these weapons could have been salvaged for their fissile materials (highly enriched uranium and weapons grade plutonium).
Obtaining such fissile materials is about 90% of the effort of building nuclear weapons, and preventing the acquisition of them is about 90% of anti-proliferation efforts. I think that Ukraine could have easily deployed a nuclear deterrent in the 2010s if they had warehoused all those Soviet warheads in the 1990s.
[1] https://www.nti.org/countries/ukraine/
Obtaining such fissile materials is about 90% of the effort of building nuclear weapons, and preventing the acquisition of them is about 90% of anti-proliferation efforts. I think that Ukraine could have easily deployed a nuclear deterrent in the 2010s if they had warehoused all those Soviet warheads in the 1990s.
[1] https://www.nti.org/countries/ukraine/
> Ukraine did not have the codes to operate the weapons it gave up - so this was essentially costless.
This analysis seems a little thin.
The codes to operate those weapons only really control the detonation sequence. At the end of the day, making new detonators from existing bombs is much less hard than collecting the fissile materials needed and assembling bombs from scratch.
This analysis seems a little thin.
The codes to operate those weapons only really control the detonation sequence. At the end of the day, making new detonators from existing bombs is much less hard than collecting the fissile materials needed and assembling bombs from scratch.
Had Ukraine kept them they probably would have eventually gained control.
And we don’t have a legal obligation to their security, only a promise. But that makes what we are doing even more powerful, IMO
And we don’t have a legal obligation to their security, only a promise. But that makes what we are doing even more powerful, IMO
The loss of goodwill and fatigue limits our actions for more necessary circumstances.
Perhaps Iraq wouldn't be a democracy, but our support of Ukraine would be more full-throated, and maybe our political circumstance would be better off.
Perhaps Iraq wouldn't be a democracy, but our support of Ukraine would be more full-throated, and maybe our political circumstance would be better off.
Trading democracy for the 43 million people in Iraq for more full-throated support for the 45 million people of Ukraine seems like a bad trade given our current level of support is still preserving democracy in Ukraine.
Ukraine is already a democratic state, Iraq was never a democratic state.
Iraq is a democratic state now and arguably has been one for longer than Ukraine. Ukraine has only recently become a democratic state (last 15 years) and still has issues.
> The world is feeling so free.
A significant portion of these transfers went to Ukraine. Thanks to them, is managing to resist Russia's 3-day invasion for the second years and counting.
Given Putin's repeated threat of nuclear Armageddon and annexing west Europe up to Lisbon, undoubtedly the world feels free thanks to its ability to oppose these imperialist ambitions of a few tin-pot dictators.
A significant portion of these transfers went to Ukraine. Thanks to them, is managing to resist Russia's 3-day invasion for the second years and counting.
Given Putin's repeated threat of nuclear Armageddon and annexing west Europe up to Lisbon, undoubtedly the world feels free thanks to its ability to oppose these imperialist ambitions of a few tin-pot dictators.
(Not sure: wondering.)