Electric Cars Are Suddenly Becoming Affordable(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Electric Cars Are Suddenly Becoming Affordable
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/business/electric-cars-becoming-affordable.html
52 comments
They aren't suddenly becoming affordable. They have been gradually becoming affordable over the last decade due to lower supply chain costs and higher demand.
I’m reading this more like “New York Times reporter discovers used electric vehicles exist, cost less than new ones.”
Used EVs have been affordable for years. In fact, cars like the Nissan Leaf have depreciated so quickly that they’re a downright bargain (as long as your use case lines up with the limited range).
Used EVs have been affordable for years. In fact, cars like the Nissan Leaf have depreciated so quickly that they’re a downright bargain (as long as your use case lines up with the limited range).
You have to be careful with used Leaf's. The ones close to $10K usually need a new (unavailable) battery. Initially, they shipped them without charge / active battery temperature management, so the old ones ate batteries.
This isn't true of newer Leafs. You can easily find a decent used one closer to $20K.
This isn't true of newer Leafs. You can easily find a decent used one closer to $20K.
They might be more affordable now but accessibility I think is still low because of charging infrastructure. I live around a bunch of apartment complexes, probably 1,200 units between 3-4 properties, and none of them have charges available. I always say the issue is not getting homeowners to adopt electric cars because they largely have garage spaces where they can install chargers, the issue will be getting adoption to folks living in apartments and other places where you cant just install a charger. How will those folks charge their cars?
My condo (sort of) complex installed charges for all indoor parking places two years ago. It is pretty easy if you want to.
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I own an electric car and no home charger. I charge at work, mostly. It works well for me. The solution will involve a range of options for a range of circumstances- what I do wouldn’t work for everyone but that’s ok.
What would you do if you had to change jobs to a company that didn’t have a charger?
i've driven electric (bmw) since 2014; charging at home at 120v overnight was always adequate if driving less than about 70 miles the following day.
if i had to drive more, an hour on a 240v L2 charger would cover it.
there's a HUGE amount of fear-uncertainty-doubt in the news which looks conspicuously like propaganda, and one can guess where it originates. it sure doesn't originate in those of us nerds who are 10 years into pure electric, and absolutely not for those with 240v at home.
btw in just shy of 80,000 miles, the maintenance costs on the first ev was all of about 200 dollars, and that's a bmw. had to buy tires too, so not counting that, since everyone buys tires.
if i had to drive more, an hour on a 240v L2 charger would cover it.
there's a HUGE amount of fear-uncertainty-doubt in the news which looks conspicuously like propaganda, and one can guess where it originates. it sure doesn't originate in those of us nerds who are 10 years into pure electric, and absolutely not for those with 240v at home.
btw in just shy of 80,000 miles, the maintenance costs on the first ev was all of about 200 dollars, and that's a bmw. had to buy tires too, so not counting that, since everyone buys tires.
The question was aimed at a person with no charger at home who relied on a charger at work. I don’t have a home to charge at and don’t want to risk relying on a company
Charging at home is cheap and convenient, but entirely optional. We don't fill our gas tanks at home. For most people's usage, you can get by with visiting a charger once or twice a week.
The supercharger experience is actually quite pleasant, and I expect it'll get even better with time as businesses realize that having a constant stream of customers with 30m to kill is a lucrative market.
The supercharger experience is actually quite pleasant, and I expect it'll get even better with time as businesses realize that having a constant stream of customers with 30m to kill is a lucrative market.
I live in an apartment and around many others, all of which have chargers. YMMV.
Also, the number of level 2 chargers is massive. Download PlugShare and look around. And Superchargers and Electrify America chargers are common. It's really not hard any more.
Also, the number of level 2 chargers is massive. Download PlugShare and look around. And Superchargers and Electrify America chargers are common. It's really not hard any more.
$40K, "affordable," shows what a bubble NYTimes is living in.
Let's remember that the median income in the US is $37,585. Half of people make less. Don't spend more than you make in a year on a new vehicle.
Let's remember that the median income in the US is $37,585. Half of people make less. Don't spend more than you make in a year on a new vehicle.
> $40K, "affordable," shows what a bubble NYTimes is living in.
Did we read the same article? NYTimes is claiming that "$20k" (or rather, $20k after up to $7500 in federal rebates) is affordable.
Which, it kind of is? That's a brand new fully electric for like $400/month.
And we're seeing it in the used market as well. (2019/2020 Chevy Bolts are now going for like $15k or ~$350/month which puts them well into affordability for people around a $40k/yr income.
Did we read the same article? NYTimes is claiming that "$20k" (or rather, $20k after up to $7500 in federal rebates) is affordable.
Which, it kind of is? That's a brand new fully electric for like $400/month.
And we're seeing it in the used market as well. (2019/2020 Chevy Bolts are now going for like $15k or ~$350/month which puts them well into affordability for people around a $40k/yr income.
Median income is not an accurate measure of affordability. That includes every person who isn't working - stay at home moms, retirees, etc.
The federal reserve's calculation of household income is probably more useful at $74k: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
And I have never paid more than $5k for a car personally, but the average new car in America is ~$47k so $40k is not actually out of alignment with what most people are buying.
The federal reserve's calculation of household income is probably more useful at $74k: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
And I have never paid more than $5k for a car personally, but the average new car in America is ~$47k so $40k is not actually out of alignment with what most people are buying.
Most people don't buy new cars (in the US, anyway, twice as many used cars than new are sold.)
The average new car in the US is $48k.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43611570/average-new-car-...
You are correct that people shouldn't spend so much on new cars, but the status quo is that they are. Reporting on prices isn't a bubble as much as just a statement of what's going on.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43611570/average-new-car-...
You are correct that people shouldn't spend so much on new cars, but the status quo is that they are. Reporting on prices isn't a bubble as much as just a statement of what's going on.
The average purchase price in the US in the recent years is >$40k, and you're saying that $40k is not affordable. Yours is not a majority opinion.
kind of goes against having Ford F-150 be the highest selling vehicle in the US
No, its not even close. They claim the whole "F" group is the best selling, not the F150 alone.
With that said, the Tesla Y and 3 are the best selling cars in the US.
Please check your 5 year old info before posting.
With that said, the Tesla Y and 3 are the best selling cars in the US.
Please check your 5 year old info before posting.
Fwiw I can't find any data to back up your claim. Looks like in 2023 numerous models outsold Tesla Y and 3 (CRV/Rav4/Ram/Silverado). While Ford doesn't seem to release individual F-150/250/350/450 data, given the huge lead I'd bet the F-150 would still beat model Y even if split out.
From the article:
> Recently, Mr. Lawrence said, customers have been snapping up used Teslas for a little over $20,000, after applying a $4,000 federal tax credit.
...
> Carmakers including Tesla, Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the owner of Jeep, have announced plans for electric vehicles that would sell new for as little as $25,000.
> Recently, Mr. Lawrence said, customers have been snapping up used Teslas for a little over $20,000, after applying a $4,000 federal tax credit.
...
> Carmakers including Tesla, Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the owner of Jeep, have announced plans for electric vehicles that would sell new for as little as $25,000.
absolutely. the standard of living is in decline: there are now fewer new cars sold per capita than decades past.
Only because they know Chinese EV will take 100% of the market if they do not come up with cheaper EV.
The opposite.
Chinese EVs are dumping because China's economy is collapsing, forcing them to dump prices because there's not enough Chinese demand.
China is now exporting all of their excess inventory to Europe and beginning to make plans to export all this inventory to the USA. And USA is rejecting it.
China has overbuilt their EV market, and continues to over-invest and builld too many EVs. USA is already pissed off at this turn of events, and European politics are beginning to grow more protective as they are also seeing this ridiculous amount of inventories come over to their countries.
China bet too much on exports and has begun to piss off everyone else.
Chinese EVs are dumping because China's economy is collapsing, forcing them to dump prices because there's not enough Chinese demand.
China is now exporting all of their excess inventory to Europe and beginning to make plans to export all this inventory to the USA. And USA is rejecting it.
China has overbuilt their EV market, and continues to over-invest and builld too many EVs. USA is already pissed off at this turn of events, and European politics are beginning to grow more protective as they are also seeing this ridiculous amount of inventories come over to their countries.
China bet too much on exports and has begun to piss off everyone else.
China's economy isn't collapsing, but it is contracting, and it is simply smart economic policy to stoke production vs unnecessary consumer demand domestically.
Global light vehicle market is almost 90 million units/pa. Ship every unit you can to every market that will accept those units (Tesla does this today, recalibrating exports as demand and incentives change; China built units are currently being offloaded in Canada due to demand sag). Of course you're going to have less sophisticated economies (who did not prioritize rapid investment in building EV manufacturing capacity up) upset you made prudent supply chain and manufacturing investments while they allowed their domestic concerns focus instead on profits (see: near term historical developed automaker share buyback volumes). If the US and Europe close their markets to Chinese EVs, Chinese EVs will consume any overseas TAM US and Europe automakers had a chance at (Mexico, Central and South America, parts of Asia and Africa, etc).
Global factory to the world being the factory to the world and the unsophisticated are all surprised pikachu. US economy is only ~18M units/pa, Europe ~10.5M units/pa, the rest of the world (~60M units/pa) is for the taking under strong trade protectionism regimes. This ignores the potential global TAM increase due to lower cost EVs inducing previously unaccounted for demand.
Global light vehicle market is almost 90 million units/pa. Ship every unit you can to every market that will accept those units (Tesla does this today, recalibrating exports as demand and incentives change; China built units are currently being offloaded in Canada due to demand sag). Of course you're going to have less sophisticated economies (who did not prioritize rapid investment in building EV manufacturing capacity up) upset you made prudent supply chain and manufacturing investments while they allowed their domestic concerns focus instead on profits (see: near term historical developed automaker share buyback volumes). If the US and Europe close their markets to Chinese EVs, Chinese EVs will consume any overseas TAM US and Europe automakers had a chance at (Mexico, Central and South America, parts of Asia and Africa, etc).
Global factory to the world being the factory to the world and the unsophisticated are all surprised pikachu. US economy is only ~18M units/pa, Europe ~10.5M units/pa, the rest of the world (~60M units/pa) is for the taking under strong trade protectionism regimes. This ignores the potential global TAM increase due to lower cost EVs inducing previously unaccounted for demand.
Canada / USA / Mexico moves mostly in lockstep thanks to NAFTA. I don't think Canada or Mexico are looking to accept these dumped Chinese vehicles.
> Central and South America, parts of Asia
Brazil is all into Ethanol and is the largest economy of South America IIRC. India is highly protectionist, so good luck selling things there.
Once we knock out the obvious contenders, its not very clear who will buy this massive pile of Chinese EVs. Africa? They barely have electric infrastructure. Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there? Especially if we assume the richer parts of Africa (ex: Egypt and South Africa) moving with Britain like they tend to do.
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Tesla has already a growing inventory problem, in part due to Gigafactory Shanghai directly competing with Chinese vehicles like BYD. Tesla has been forced to collapse the prices of its entire lineup in China/Europe, while NA demand is also falling due to overproduction.
I dunno, its not very clear that China overproducing EVs is a good move. There's a lot of risks here.
> Central and South America, parts of Asia
Brazil is all into Ethanol and is the largest economy of South America IIRC. India is highly protectionist, so good luck selling things there.
Once we knock out the obvious contenders, its not very clear who will buy this massive pile of Chinese EVs. Africa? They barely have electric infrastructure. Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there? Especially if we assume the richer parts of Africa (ex: Egypt and South Africa) moving with Britain like they tend to do.
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Tesla has already a growing inventory problem, in part due to Gigafactory Shanghai directly competing with Chinese vehicles like BYD. Tesla has been forced to collapse the prices of its entire lineup in China/Europe, while NA demand is also falling due to overproduction.
I dunno, its not very clear that China overproducing EVs is a good move. There's a lot of risks here.
> Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there? Especially if we assume the richer parts of Africa (ex: Egypt and South Africa) moving with Britain like they tend to do.
https://electrek.co/2024/06/03/global-pledge-triple-renewabl...
https://www.iea.org/reports/cop28-tripling-renewable-capacit...
https://electrek.co/2024/06/03/global-pledge-triple-renewabl...
https://www.iea.org/reports/cop28-tripling-renewable-capacit...
> Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there?
China, probably. It's kinda their thing:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
China, probably. It's kinda their thing:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
I was under the impression that Belt and Road initiative was rails, trucks and ports / shipping / docking. Not so much power plants or EVs.
They do energy sector stuff as well. They've invested in several big hydropower projects over the years and a number of fossil fuel plants. I believe in the past year or two there's been an effort to refocus the projects towards clean energy as well, calling it the "Green Silk Road."
Of course, it appears somewhat controversial how successful these projects have been.
Of course, it appears somewhat controversial how successful these projects have been.
So China, the world's biggest exporter of goods since 2009, accidentally built too many EVs and was forced to sell them overseas?
Yes and no.
China obviously has policies that benefit exports. But I think they're going to far with this EV thing, and they might be realizing that they've gone too far with their policies... But too late. Their industry and internal politics are designed to reward this overproduction.
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The real issue is internal Chinese demand has dropped off a cliff since COVID-19 and Evergrande issues combined in a terrible storm the past few years. Chinas internal economy has never recovered so they only have Exports now to rely on.
But now they're hammering exports to the point of causing geopolitical issues.
China does not want to be so reliant on foreign markets either. They're a proud nation that wants to stand by itself. But they have nothing but exports holding them up right now.
China obviously has policies that benefit exports. But I think they're going to far with this EV thing, and they might be realizing that they've gone too far with their policies... But too late. Their industry and internal politics are designed to reward this overproduction.
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The real issue is internal Chinese demand has dropped off a cliff since COVID-19 and Evergrande issues combined in a terrible storm the past few years. Chinas internal economy has never recovered so they only have Exports now to rely on.
But now they're hammering exports to the point of causing geopolitical issues.
China does not want to be so reliant on foreign markets either. They're a proud nation that wants to stand by itself. But they have nothing but exports holding them up right now.
They're not dumping EVs. They're charging significantly more outside of China than in. Ar you just making shit up here? Sounds to me like you don't have a clue about this market. Compare BYD in China and Australia for example.
They should really define "affordable".
It depends on where you live. Where I live on the west coast, you can find lots of used Nissan Leafs on craigslist for less than 6-7k. That's actually affordable. And there are some for under 4k, junk car territory.
Granted, they're 10+ year old cars and can only go ~50 miles on a charge (originally 80 miles but the battery degrades). But if you want a cheap car and live in a city or a close suburb, especially if you can charge your car at work, it's a doable option. These fully electric cars require less maintenance so they actually are cheap to run.
Granted, they're 10+ year old cars and can only go ~50 miles on a charge (originally 80 miles but the battery degrades). But if you want a cheap car and live in a city or a close suburb, especially if you can charge your car at work, it's a doable option. These fully electric cars require less maintenance so they actually are cheap to run.
Probably based on averages compared to other new cars/trucks.
Average new vehicle price is $48k, but that's of course skewed by very high priced vehicles like pickups.
Average new vehicle price is $48k, but that's of course skewed by very high priced vehicles like pickups.
Because the EV industry has reached a new maturation stage in which companies lower prices to capture market share.
I'm aware that car prices are falling across the board, but I see EVs being hit harder than ICEs. I've heard from some local dealerships I visited recently that new EVs are sitting on the lot for longer too.
My I-PACE cost me over $80k when it was a one-of-a-kind vehicle, an EV from a mature car manufacturer with a luxury interior, sporty performance, hatchback, AWD, and heat pump. It won the 2019 World Car of the Year award (https://www.worldcarawards.com/web/2019_results.asp). It can easily make it the 150 miles from Seattle to Yakima over the PNW Cascade mountain pass in driving snow without needing to stop to charge. It was a bit of a stretch for me to spend that much on a car, but to me it was -- and still is -- a great car.
It wasn't too long before some other EVs with similar characteristics entered the marketplace, and at lower prices. Probably the biggest differences include slightly more splashy range on the spec sheet, although I would argue Jaguar is being more conservative than they really need to be with their advertised specs, and a faster charge rate. In other words, the newer EVs can get from point A to point B with less time spent at the rapid chargers.
Therefore my I-PACE's auction value is almost down to $20k, in spite of being low mileage and in excellent condition. I still get as much range out of it as I did the day I bought it. There are a few reasons for the precipitous price drop, but I suspect the overriding one is that nobody wants an EV that charges at 80kW.
Personally I use my gas car when doing road trips that would otherwise require a rapid charging stop, and I exclusively charge the I-PACE overnight in my garage. So I guess it's still worth a heck of a lot more than $20k to me, which is why I don't think I'll part ways with it until something really expensive breaks on it.
Meanwhile those who have EVs that don't use Tesla's supercharger network are stuck with the likes of Electrify America when they're road tripping. In that case I'm not sure your overall experience is going to be all that better whether your car is capable of pulling 80kW or 150kW at 35% SoC. I imagine people in 6-figure Taycans capable of pulling 270kW sitting in the same line as the $15k used Bolts capable of pulling 50kW for one of only 2 functioning chargers at an Electrify America site in a rural Walmart parking lot to open up, and then the charger ends up only being able to put out 100kW if you're lucky. The charging capabilities of your EV don't mean much if you can't take advantage of them.
Maybe the "unwashed masses" are starting to hear about the horror show that non-Tesla charging networks are as non-enthusiasts are suckered into buying one off the lot without the dealership being completely forthright with them about the true state of things, and that's being reflected in the relative price of used EVs.
My I-PACE cost me over $80k when it was a one-of-a-kind vehicle, an EV from a mature car manufacturer with a luxury interior, sporty performance, hatchback, AWD, and heat pump. It won the 2019 World Car of the Year award (https://www.worldcarawards.com/web/2019_results.asp). It can easily make it the 150 miles from Seattle to Yakima over the PNW Cascade mountain pass in driving snow without needing to stop to charge. It was a bit of a stretch for me to spend that much on a car, but to me it was -- and still is -- a great car.
It wasn't too long before some other EVs with similar characteristics entered the marketplace, and at lower prices. Probably the biggest differences include slightly more splashy range on the spec sheet, although I would argue Jaguar is being more conservative than they really need to be with their advertised specs, and a faster charge rate. In other words, the newer EVs can get from point A to point B with less time spent at the rapid chargers.
Therefore my I-PACE's auction value is almost down to $20k, in spite of being low mileage and in excellent condition. I still get as much range out of it as I did the day I bought it. There are a few reasons for the precipitous price drop, but I suspect the overriding one is that nobody wants an EV that charges at 80kW.
Personally I use my gas car when doing road trips that would otherwise require a rapid charging stop, and I exclusively charge the I-PACE overnight in my garage. So I guess it's still worth a heck of a lot more than $20k to me, which is why I don't think I'll part ways with it until something really expensive breaks on it.
Meanwhile those who have EVs that don't use Tesla's supercharger network are stuck with the likes of Electrify America when they're road tripping. In that case I'm not sure your overall experience is going to be all that better whether your car is capable of pulling 80kW or 150kW at 35% SoC. I imagine people in 6-figure Taycans capable of pulling 270kW sitting in the same line as the $15k used Bolts capable of pulling 50kW for one of only 2 functioning chargers at an Electrify America site in a rural Walmart parking lot to open up, and then the charger ends up only being able to put out 100kW if you're lucky. The charging capabilities of your EV don't mean much if you can't take advantage of them.
Maybe the "unwashed masses" are starting to hear about the horror show that non-Tesla charging networks are as non-enthusiasts are suckered into buying one off the lot without the dealership being completely forthright with them about the true state of things, and that's being reflected in the relative price of used EVs.
Same experience here in the UK. My 2016 Model S P90D that I’ve had since new is now valued at ~$30k. 12 months ago it was ~$55k. It has lifetime free supercharging, free premium LTE connectivity (maps, spotify etc) and £0 annual taxes (due to tax laws here, a newer equivalent EV would now be due ~$500 a year). It’s done 50k miles and charges at 130-150kW, range is 180/220 miles in winter/summer.
Whoever buys it when I sell it later this year will get an amazing car.
Whoever buys it when I sell it later this year will get an amazing car.
About as affordable as living in new york.
Reminder that your taxes pay for the subsidies that make the prices on EVs even anywhere near that "affordable" range.
Reminder that your taxes pay for the subsidies that make the prices on EVs even anywhere near that "affordable" range.
I'm glad they do: the more people drive electric the cleaner the air is that I breathe.
Many EVs don't qualify for subsidies (for example, Hyundai/Kia EVs that are financed, and not leased).
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Reminder that oil is heavily subsidised too.
Maybe that's the US thing? In my country I'm not aware of any subsidies towards oil companies, on the contrary, more than a half of retail gas price is taxes.
This article is just propaganda, devoid of any actual data.