China's EV Boom Threatens to Push Gasoline Demand Off a Cliff(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
China's EV Boom Threatens to Push Gasoline Demand Off a Cliff
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-28/china-s-ev-boom-threatens-to-push-gasoline-demand-off-a-cliff
47 comments
It seems a bit cultural, a bit practical, and maybe a bit political? Tesla is an American company and seems like it was selling cars. There's no one stopping them so I'm not sure the oil industry is entirely to blame.
It's entirely cultural and political.
Not entirely. I would buy one if there was one I liked that was in the price range I want to spend. It would be practical as in I don't want to pay $25k more than an ICE car for the same quality of vehicle. Neither cultural or political in my case.
The cultural and political element is why there are no cars you want in your price range.
> Meanwhile life is worse and more expensive in wealthy NA
Even in North America you’re seeing this bifurcating. I split time between New York City and a deep red and rural state. EVs are one of the weird commonalities between them. Not because of politics. But because I’m in a rich area in each.
> because it is so politically beholden to oil interests
Other than Exxon, Big Oil bet on renewables.
The answer is simpler: there was a messaging fuck-up and groundswell backlash from poor Americans being told they had to replace their cars at huge expense.
Even in North America you’re seeing this bifurcating. I split time between New York City and a deep red and rural state. EVs are one of the weird commonalities between them. Not because of politics. But because I’m in a rich area in each.
> because it is so politically beholden to oil interests
Other than Exxon, Big Oil bet on renewables.
The answer is simpler: there was a messaging fuck-up and groundswell backlash from poor Americans being told they had to replace their cars at huge expense.
I wonder about other factors, like safety requirements, fuel price, fuel taxation, license requirements and population percentage/wealth owning a car.
I also remember when cellphones first became available in other countries.
Because landlines were so screwed up in other countries, and adding cellphone infrastructure was simple and competitive, uptake of cellphones was much more abrupt. The US got terrible cellphones at a slower rate.
I also remember when cellphones first became available in other countries.
Because landlines were so screwed up in other countries, and adding cellphone infrastructure was simple and competitive, uptake of cellphones was much more abrupt. The US got terrible cellphones at a slower rate.
Cellphone transition may be an apt comparison. Like how much of that slow transition was related to large established companies defending their existing infrastructure and investments? Reminds me of cars too.
The big problem NA has right now is giant rent seeking corporations have become too powerful and are uninterested in change.
The big problem NA has right now is giant rent seeking corporations have become too powerful and are uninterested in change.
I've heard that it's because we need to maintain domestic auto manufacturing capabilities so we can switch to tanks if ever needed.
In today's world, perhaps we should stop giving subsidies to auto manufacturers and start giving them to drone manufacturers.
In today's world, perhaps we should stop giving subsidies to auto manufacturers and start giving them to drone manufacturers.
> cleaner air
I'm not sure that move will help much. EVs PM2.5 footprint, is 0.5x of ICEv [0]. Good but not game-changing.
[0] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35760182/
I'm not sure that move will help much. EVs PM2.5 footprint, is 0.5x of ICEv [0]. Good but not game-changing.
[0] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35760182/
Yep, looks pretty likely now to end up on the wrong side of history in the climate catastrophe (working counter to getting international emissions agreements, sponsorship of oil industry & having hugely outsized emissions per capita).
It's not about beholding to oil interests. Does the USA wants to kill all its car manufacturers and commit industry-suicide like the EU just did?
The EU is rendering countless people jobless and handing the auto market to the chinese so they can sell their spying devices on wheels (probably also complete with kill-switches that can be activated from China if needed: say in case of a full on war).
It's just insanity. I think the EU is going to be a case study as to how quickly you can kill an entire industry by voting laws favoring a competing nation state instead of your own nation/countries.
Be very careful what you wish for.
The EU is rendering countless people jobless and handing the auto market to the chinese so they can sell their spying devices on wheels (probably also complete with kill-switches that can be activated from China if needed: say in case of a full on war).
It's just insanity. I think the EU is going to be a case study as to how quickly you can kill an entire industry by voting laws favoring a competing nation state instead of your own nation/countries.
Be very careful what you wish for.
So the only options are batten down the hatches (tariffs) while continuing business as usual (ICE manufacturing) inside, or open the doors and surrender (let China take over the auto market)?
What about option 3? Stand and fight. Make an effort. Design something electric that people actually want to buy. Build out the necessary charging infra on a war footing. Shape consumer behavior with tax policy.
I could accept EV tariffs if they were meant to give domestic manufacturers breathing room to catch up. I don't see that anyone has gotten the memo though.
What about option 3? Stand and fight. Make an effort. Design something electric that people actually want to buy. Build out the necessary charging infra on a war footing. Shape consumer behavior with tax policy.
I could accept EV tariffs if they were meant to give domestic manufacturers breathing room to catch up. I don't see that anyone has gotten the memo though.
> Stand and fight. Make an effort. Design something electric that people actually want to buy
This also requires revising U.S. regulations to be less onerous. Look at China’s export-variant EVs, see why they couldn’t be admitted into America, and question if that requirement is actually important. Because while it’s keeping Chinese EVs out, it’s also making American production uncompetitive.
This also requires revising U.S. regulations to be less onerous. Look at China’s export-variant EVs, see why they couldn’t be admitted into America, and question if that requirement is actually important. Because while it’s keeping Chinese EVs out, it’s also making American production uncompetitive.
I agree with you in theory, but we need more sane ways of government to support decent goals without being sucked dry by industry.
It seems the government has had lots of mistakes doing that. For example, supporting the early internet buildout (carriers took money), or getting solar off the ground (early startups took money, disappeared), or whatever happened with GM.
It seems the government has had lots of mistakes doing that. For example, supporting the early internet buildout (carriers took money), or getting solar off the ground (early startups took money, disappeared), or whatever happened with GM.
Agreed.
Another take has always been china doesn’t have environmental regulations so they can go faster. Is this true? on the face of it I don’t believe it because the insane cost differential would be like 10% cheaper Chinese evs not 50%.
Automation was supposed to save the west from cheap labor but the Chinese manufacturers have that too
Another take has always been china doesn’t have environmental regulations so they can go faster. Is this true? on the face of it I don’t believe it because the insane cost differential would be like 10% cheaper Chinese evs not 50%.
Automation was supposed to save the west from cheap labor but the Chinese manufacturers have that too
> Build out the necessary charging infra on a war footing
Why? If electric cars are the future, certainly building infrastructure will make sense for private companies. If it is not profitable for companies to build such infrastructure, then maybe electric cars are not the future but a fashion trend.
> I could accept EV tariffs if they were meant to give domestic manufacturers breathing room to catch up. I don't see that anyone has gotten the memo though.
China is overplaying their hand. They are having massive overcapacity in the car manufacturing, but most of the world can't afford such cars either due to price and/or due to non-existent infrastructure. You can forget on selling 30k EUR cars in Africa, India or Central Asia. You can also forget on selling such cars in most of China. So tariffs will decimate Chinese car industry.
Why? If electric cars are the future, certainly building infrastructure will make sense for private companies. If it is not profitable for companies to build such infrastructure, then maybe electric cars are not the future but a fashion trend.
> I could accept EV tariffs if they were meant to give domestic manufacturers breathing room to catch up. I don't see that anyone has gotten the memo though.
China is overplaying their hand. They are having massive overcapacity in the car manufacturing, but most of the world can't afford such cars either due to price and/or due to non-existent infrastructure. You can forget on selling 30k EUR cars in Africa, India or Central Asia. You can also forget on selling such cars in most of China. So tariffs will decimate Chinese car industry.
> If it is not profitable for companies to build such infrastructure
I didn't say the government would build out charging infra, did I? But they can make it easier.
> most of the world can't afford such cars either due to price
The sun is free. Oil costs dollars. Most of the world is dollar-constrained. Until now capturing the sun's energy was costly, but China's manufacturing scale has changed that.
Their manufacturing scale has also produced EVs that are way cheaper than your average Tesla.
> and/or due to non-existent infrastructure
Most countries have cheaper labor and fewer environmental constraints than the developed world. If they have a reason to build infrastructure, they'll build it.
I didn't say the government would build out charging infra, did I? But they can make it easier.
> most of the world can't afford such cars either due to price
The sun is free. Oil costs dollars. Most of the world is dollar-constrained. Until now capturing the sun's energy was costly, but China's manufacturing scale has changed that.
Their manufacturing scale has also produced EVs that are way cheaper than your average Tesla.
> and/or due to non-existent infrastructure
Most countries have cheaper labor and fewer environmental constraints than the developed world. If they have a reason to build infrastructure, they'll build it.
Well it's also that the EU is much further along at becoming a post-car continent than the US is. Our public transport is much better, especially rail.
Cars just aren't so important here anymore. I haven't owned or even rented or driven one for 6 years. Not even once.
There's big differences between countries here (the Netherlands is still very hung up on cars and Germany too) but in general we don't really look at a car as a must-have anymore. Personally I consider it much more of an obstacle and a huge money drain. I have nowhere to park it, I don't want the responsibility of driving (and possibly penalties), the maintenance, the insurance, the need to constantly worry about charging it or moving it to not hog charging stations (with EVs). Or not being able to use my time productively while driving.
Instead I just jump on the train whenever I need to, and I can read or watch something, all while spending much less.
Cars just aren't so important here anymore. I haven't owned or even rented or driven one for 6 years. Not even once.
There's big differences between countries here (the Netherlands is still very hung up on cars and Germany too) but in general we don't really look at a car as a must-have anymore. Personally I consider it much more of an obstacle and a huge money drain. I have nowhere to park it, I don't want the responsibility of driving (and possibly penalties), the maintenance, the insurance, the need to constantly worry about charging it or moving it to not hog charging stations (with EVs). Or not being able to use my time productively while driving.
Instead I just jump on the train whenever I need to, and I can read or watch something, all while spending much less.
There are more tools in the toolbox than capitulating and letting China take over.
The reason China is ahead right now is that in addition to the carrot of heaps of funding, there was the stick that China brought in regulations that prevented hundreds of ICE vehicle models from being sold. They were serious about EVs.
This is something USA/Canada could do as well. But no people seem satisfied to do nothing and keep selling giant trucks that burn gas.
The reason China is ahead right now is that in addition to the carrot of heaps of funding, there was the stick that China brought in regulations that prevented hundreds of ICE vehicle models from being sold. They were serious about EVs.
This is something USA/Canada could do as well. But no people seem satisfied to do nothing and keep selling giant trucks that burn gas.
Be very careful with your kettle and fridge, they're watching you
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hacked-from-china-is-your-kettl... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/23/china-could-spy-...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hacked-from-china-is-your-kettl... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/23/china-could-spy-...
“The future is coming faster in China”
China’s fuel consumption peaked in 2019 and is projected to drop 2-5% each year for several decades.
This is probably a predictor for the rest of the world too. Potential for Africa to leapfrog over fossil fuels, developing nations will embrace solar and cheap Chinese electric vehicles. This will cause a shift in global energy markets. I’m not positioned to capitalize on that prediction, but it seems pretty sound.
This is probably a predictor for the rest of the world too. Potential for Africa to leapfrog over fossil fuels, developing nations will embrace solar and cheap Chinese electric vehicles. This will cause a shift in global energy markets. I’m not positioned to capitalize on that prediction, but it seems pretty sound.
A year ago I would've hesitated to state with confidence that the Chinese Yuan could become a reserve currency, but at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar based on forward looking petroleum demand destruction, I am much more confident in the Yuan as a reserve currency in the next ~5 years.
If you're only buying dollars for petroleum, and you don't need petroleum, why are you buying dollars? You're going to need a currency China wants to buy solar PV, wind turbines, batteries, EVs, etc from them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
If you're only buying dollars for petroleum, and you don't need petroleum, why are you buying dollars? You're going to need a currency China wants to buy solar PV, wind turbines, batteries, EVs, etc from them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
> at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar
This is nonsense macroeconomics. Even within its framework it’s wrong: China is a net energy importer. The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 70s.
China would have to open up its capital account to offer a competitive reserve currency. That isn’t happening amidst a demographic decline and authoritarian government. Washington may be doing its best to kill dollar hegemony with its tariff and sanctions fevers. But the yuan isn’t a candidate outside propaganda.
> If you're only buying dollars for petroleum
Then you’re an idiot.
You buy dollars to buy American products, probably financial products, or have them because you sold your crap to Americans who handed you dollars.
This is nonsense macroeconomics. Even within its framework it’s wrong: China is a net energy importer. The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 70s.
China would have to open up its capital account to offer a competitive reserve currency. That isn’t happening amidst a demographic decline and authoritarian government. Washington may be doing its best to kill dollar hegemony with its tariff and sanctions fevers. But the yuan isn’t a candidate outside propaganda.
> If you're only buying dollars for petroleum
Then you’re an idiot.
You buy dollars to buy American products, probably financial products, or have them because you sold your crap to Americans who handed you dollars.
We differ in our perspective of long term American economic success (and export demand vs China) I believe. Despite the demographic story, China will automate.
Admittedly, you’re the capital market expert, and my thesis could be deficient.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting...
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker
https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-i...
Admittedly, you’re the capital market expert, and my thesis could be deficient.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting...
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker
https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-i...
Meanwhile in Canada politicians are telling us that we need to expand oil production because "we're always going to need oil" and someone is gonna get rich and it should be us.
The pain will be bad as Alberta etc doubles and triples down on pumping oil as the rest of the world in fact does not need oil.
The pain will be bad as Alberta etc doubles and triples down on pumping oil as the rest of the world in fact does not need oil.
"In the US, EV’s still represent only about 10% of total car sales, and BloombergNEF sharply scaled back its forecasts for growth after the Republican election sweep."
"[In China] they've accounted for more than half of retail passenger vehicle sales in the four months from July, according to the China Passenger Car Association"
Cue the excuses: Something something reducing our carbon emissions is pointless because China and India emit blah blah. And also China is in terminal decline because of a baby crisis.
"[In China] they've accounted for more than half of retail passenger vehicle sales in the four months from July, according to the China Passenger Car Association"
Cue the excuses: Something something reducing our carbon emissions is pointless because China and India emit blah blah. And also China is in terminal decline because of a baby crisis.
[deleted]
That is bad news for oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia or Russia, but good news for the rest of the world.
It seems our planet will be saved by China and not by the USA.
It seems our planet will be saved by China and not by the USA.
So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars.
Much worse for the planet.
Clean gasoline cars, once they implement particulate filters on them, are going to be cheap, and pollute a whole lot less than burning coal.
EVs will be an option but they’re going to have to force the chargers through the grid to only charge during the day to take advantage of solar, and properly account for upstream and downstream emissions on the battery pack manufacturing and disposal. A full life cycle has to be considered.
A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with.
EVs will be an option but they’re going to have to force the chargers through the grid to only charge during the day to take advantage of solar, and properly account for upstream and downstream emissions on the battery pack manufacturing and disposal. A full life cycle has to be considered.
A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with.
> So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars
That's one more on the climate change/EV bingo card.
No they burn coal to generate the electricity they were already using for everything they did before they started buying all these EVs.
Most of their new electricity generation in the past 3 years - when EV adoption has taken off - is from wind, solar, and hydro. [1]
> A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with.
Right because all the dangerous byproducts in a gasoline car - the gasoline, various oils and lubricants - have already been used up and discarded into the environment. Gasoline cars have lead-acid batteries, and those are plenty dangerous and nasty. An EV battery goes into a recycling plant, just like an ICE car battery. The rest is equally high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately.
You probably think lithium extraction is bad for the environment too, right? While ignoring oil spills, methane leaks, and damage and water pollution from fracking?
1. So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars
That's one more on the climate change/EV bingo card.
No they burn coal to generate the electricity they were already using for everything they did before they started buying all these EVs.
Most of their new electricity generation in the past 3 years - when EV adoption has taken off - is from wind, solar, and hydro. [1]
> A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with.
Right because all the dangerous byproducts in a gasoline car - the gasoline, various oils and lubricants - have already been used up and discarded into the environment. Gasoline cars have lead-acid batteries, and those are plenty dangerous and nasty. An EV battery goes into a recycling plant, just like an ICE car battery. The rest is equally high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately.
You probably think lithium extraction is bad for the environment too, right? While ignoring oil spills, methane leaks, and damage and water pollution from fracking?
1. So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars
Bad propaganda, but whatever I'll bite.
If you have a nation of gasoline cars, you can only use gasoline to move them.
If you have a nation of EVs, you can use coal ... or solar ... or wind ... or geothermal ... or natural gas ... or nuclear to move them.
ICEs are really, what, 20-30% efficient? While coal in a powerplant is likely 37% efficient. Transmission losses is 5%, then the EV is 90% efficient in power to wheels.
And again, if your entire nation's transportation is EVs, you can change the source of electricity by replacing the plants. If your nation's transportation is gasoline ... you can only use gasoline. There is no path to transition.
Sodium Ion batteries in the 150 wh/kg should enable a dirt dirt cheap 200 mile range city car, and should be able to do almost 300 mile range cars as well. 200+ wh/kg LFP should be able to do 300-400 mile cars.
If you have a nation of gasoline cars, you can only use gasoline to move them.
If you have a nation of EVs, you can use coal ... or solar ... or wind ... or geothermal ... or natural gas ... or nuclear to move them.
ICEs are really, what, 20-30% efficient? While coal in a powerplant is likely 37% efficient. Transmission losses is 5%, then the EV is 90% efficient in power to wheels.
And again, if your entire nation's transportation is EVs, you can change the source of electricity by replacing the plants. If your nation's transportation is gasoline ... you can only use gasoline. There is no path to transition.
Sodium Ion batteries in the 150 wh/kg should enable a dirt dirt cheap 200 mile range city car, and should be able to do almost 300 mile range cars as well. 200+ wh/kg LFP should be able to do 300-400 mile cars.
Good points. The Chinese are giving themselves more options, while other countries or persons pointing the finger, have less or are purposefully limiting their options.
> So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses,
Are they truly burning coal or are they making syngas for use with a CCGT and shipping the coke off for their steel? (Probably a bit of both, my wager.) Cause a CCGT is gonna be -at least- as efficient as an atkinson cycle gas engine.
> once they implement particulate filters on them,
You can hypothetically do this with a coal plant too, and what's even better is, it's easier to 'check up on' one power plant vs thousands or millions of individuals to make sure the filter is present and being maintained. (e.x. Cat deletes on gas engines.)
> A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now,
Short of something with a Toyota HSD style setup, you've still got a lot of -other- components that break down in increasing frequency to support that. Your Steel Belt CVTs, your 8-10 speed transmissions with too much complexity slammed in resulting in various reliability issues... And lately almost every manufacturer, even Toyota, has had to do a recall on some engines due to very bad failure modes. And all of it in the name of trying to keep gas engines to the need for efficiency while also trying to add far more power than most people need in a daily.
Are they truly burning coal or are they making syngas for use with a CCGT and shipping the coke off for their steel? (Probably a bit of both, my wager.) Cause a CCGT is gonna be -at least- as efficient as an atkinson cycle gas engine.
> once they implement particulate filters on them,
You can hypothetically do this with a coal plant too, and what's even better is, it's easier to 'check up on' one power plant vs thousands or millions of individuals to make sure the filter is present and being maintained. (e.x. Cat deletes on gas engines.)
> A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now,
Short of something with a Toyota HSD style setup, you've still got a lot of -other- components that break down in increasing frequency to support that. Your Steel Belt CVTs, your 8-10 speed transmissions with too much complexity slammed in resulting in various reliability issues... And lately almost every manufacturer, even Toyota, has had to do a recall on some engines due to very bad failure modes. And all of it in the name of trying to keep gas engines to the need for efficiency while also trying to add far more power than most people need in a daily.
The ford 10R80. 10 speed transmission is famous for being terrible dispute being in use since 2018.
As for toyota their new engines and transmissions arent really any better for fuel economy but seem to have reliability issues anyway. I think its more of a problem of too much power as the HP war rages on for more powerful engines.
As for toyota their new engines and transmissions arent really any better for fuel economy but seem to have reliability issues anyway. I think its more of a problem of too much power as the HP war rages on for more powerful engines.
> As for toyota their new engines and transmissions arent really any better for fuel economy but seem to have reliability issues anyway.
I mentioned HSD specifically, which refers to a Hybrid Setup where the transmission is typically a setup where in simple form there's a single speed gearbox, two motor/generators (one of which more or less replaces a torque converter to minimize losses) and an electronically controlled clutch for the motor to act in direct drive to, again, minimize losses.
Rav4 Hybrids, Maverick Hybrids, Escape hybrids all have pretty good overall reliability track records as far as the engine/transmission goes (interestingly, some of the Ford models have a 'potential recall' on some VIN ranges but it seems like a supplier issue on the crankshafts... which TBH sounds like it hit other manufacturers e.x. Toyota.)
The 'simple' Hybrid model like this typically involves:
- A boring engine with atkinson-style capable VVT. Ford normally uses a variant of a Mazda design that is well proven, You don't need direct injection or turbos, AFAIK even Toyota follows the same pattern (unless they're doing D4S now... but doubt it based on observations of hybrids in the winter)
- Transmission like noted above
- A battery between 1.3 and 3.0 Killowatt hours (probably closer to 2.0 median tho). For comparison a tesla model 3 starts at ~50Kwh battery, costs for maintenance are overblown on hybrids frequently.
- A mileage above 35MPG for something like a Rav4/Maverick/Escape hybrid. Far more for a Prius sized/profiled vehicle.
- Maybe 1-2 seconds of torque decently above 200 lb-ft of torque in a burst, again on something like a 2.5 liter.
> I think its more of a problem of too much power as the HP war rages on for more powerful engines.
Yeah people miss the point there. Most people really want torque to help get them to a highway driving speed safely enough to deal with the rest of the folks out there and have enough HP to get to necessary evasion speed. (And, a transmission that can keep up with that.) For >90% of my driving, the Hybrid gives me enough 'oomph' compared to my older M/T WRX that, well, the WRX now has a maintenance backlog (FML).
If you can hit >200 pound feet in a compact to midsize (C/D class), frankly, that's enough. The average person on the highway being able to hit 0-60 in <10 seconds is often a liability, because it makes them overconfident.
I mentioned HSD specifically, which refers to a Hybrid Setup where the transmission is typically a setup where in simple form there's a single speed gearbox, two motor/generators (one of which more or less replaces a torque converter to minimize losses) and an electronically controlled clutch for the motor to act in direct drive to, again, minimize losses.
Rav4 Hybrids, Maverick Hybrids, Escape hybrids all have pretty good overall reliability track records as far as the engine/transmission goes (interestingly, some of the Ford models have a 'potential recall' on some VIN ranges but it seems like a supplier issue on the crankshafts... which TBH sounds like it hit other manufacturers e.x. Toyota.)
The 'simple' Hybrid model like this typically involves:
- A boring engine with atkinson-style capable VVT. Ford normally uses a variant of a Mazda design that is well proven, You don't need direct injection or turbos, AFAIK even Toyota follows the same pattern (unless they're doing D4S now... but doubt it based on observations of hybrids in the winter)
- Transmission like noted above
- A battery between 1.3 and 3.0 Killowatt hours (probably closer to 2.0 median tho). For comparison a tesla model 3 starts at ~50Kwh battery, costs for maintenance are overblown on hybrids frequently.
- A mileage above 35MPG for something like a Rav4/Maverick/Escape hybrid. Far more for a Prius sized/profiled vehicle.
- Maybe 1-2 seconds of torque decently above 200 lb-ft of torque in a burst, again on something like a 2.5 liter.
> I think its more of a problem of too much power as the HP war rages on for more powerful engines.
Yeah people miss the point there. Most people really want torque to help get them to a highway driving speed safely enough to deal with the rest of the folks out there and have enough HP to get to necessary evasion speed. (And, a transmission that can keep up with that.) For >90% of my driving, the Hybrid gives me enough 'oomph' compared to my older M/T WRX that, well, the WRX now has a maintenance backlog (FML).
If you can hit >200 pound feet in a compact to midsize (C/D class), frankly, that's enough. The average person on the highway being able to hit 0-60 in <10 seconds is often a liability, because it makes them overconfident.
A good gasoline engine is, like, 30% efficient. Powerplants are generally a bit better than that.
Even if EVs are 100% powered by coal-generated electricity, the efficiency gains are massive, both at the generation end and the consumption end. EVs have up to double the efficiency in terms of power delivered to the wheels, and coal generation units are highly tuned and scaled to extract power as efficiently as possible. Even units balling straight out of the 70s thrash vehicle engines in terms of efficiency. You do lose some electricity due to transmission loss, but even the leakiest of grids aren't enough to cause coal power to be less efficient per joule of fuel than vehicle engines. This ultimately means that EVs contribute far less greenhouse gases than ICEVs, even when all electricity comes from coal.
China has been pivoting hard for the past decade to move away from coal fired power generation. They're not coal free by any means, but that hard pivot has made nearly every other nation pay attention to just how rapidly it can be done, how it enables industry and economy, how it improved their air quality in areas where coal has been replaced, etc.
Don't think you're magically picking up some gotcha here that they have not thought of. They're not dumb, and they're absolutely smashing the pants off the energy transition, which is hard for a manufacturing economy.
Don't think you're magically picking up some gotcha here that they have not thought of. They're not dumb, and they're absolutely smashing the pants off the energy transition, which is hard for a manufacturing economy.
Energy mixes of USA & China: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fossil-fuels-share-energy...
Both are villains having 80% fossil energy, but China has the curve sloping downwards a bit faster (much too slowly still).
They're close enough that making a treaty to jointly ramp this down (like EU is showing by example) would be painless for both countries from the competition perspectively.
Both are villains having 80% fossil energy, but China has the curve sloping downwards a bit faster (much too slowly still).
They're close enough that making a treaty to jointly ramp this down (like EU is showing by example) would be painless for both countries from the competition perspectively.
All because of political choices in banning imports and not sufficiently pushing local auto makers to push for an EV transition.
Really wild stuff to see NA that has always been at the technological bleeding edge, weirdly politicize vehicle engines and cede so much ground because it is so politically beholden to oil interests.