America is going through a big economic experiment(economist.com)
economist.com
America is going through a big economic experiment
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2025/11/12/america-is-going-through-a-big-economic-experiment
39 comments
The most interesting development in my opinion is the full-throated embracing of the "it's not wealth redistribution if we're doing it" philosophy. Every day some new announcement of $X billion to be given to group Y... it was $12B to farmers over the weekend.
Except it wasn't $12B to farmers. Farmers have been squeezed by monopolies on both the supplier (seed, equipment, etc) side AND the buyer side (there is often only a single buyer of grain in an area, for example) to the point that most large scale American farms are struggling to make any profit, and service their sizeable debts. The $12B will immediately be transferred to these monopolies, it will not go to farmers.
Sure, but they will be told to believe they're getting it. And so many of them will be eager to do so.
I was sort of hoping this would touch upon the other big experiment. The government is now buying shares in American businesses. It's telling businesses what they can and can't do about things like DEI, and wielding an enormous stick against those who don't obey. Trump's declaring that he'll be involved with deciding who WB-Discovery-HBO can be sold to.
I think, from an economic standpoint, there’s plenty of non-democratic countries that do this all the time and some of them do quite well. It’s more the end of an Experiment than the start of one.
>Trump's declaring that he'll be involved with deciding who WB-Discovery-HBO can be sold to.
This needs to be developed into a The Apprentice-style show where aspirants truckle before the king as they make their pitches.
This needs to be developed into a The Apprentice-style show where aspirants truckle before the king as they make their pitches.
I think that's where we are now...
So, let's say one wants to hedge against the worse scenarios here, a stock market and bond-market crash. Where do I put my pension?
you probably don't go all in, but try to find real assets that are not _too_ strongly correlated and are likely to have durable long term value. The most compelling answers I've heard are things like desirable real estate, commodities, or futures/contracts like water rights. Even then its not no equities, just a much lower allocation to minimize down side while still capturing some of the exuberant growth
Gold performed well in the 1970s - 1980s stagflation. That's why gold has gone up so much in the last few years - because people expect stagflation.
Real estate preserved value. However, I'm not sure that it will this time because population growth is not as strong as before.
Real estate preserved value. However, I'm not sure that it will this time because population growth is not as strong as before.
Aswath Damodaran (https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/) from Stern School of Business at NYU says; 'Something bad is coming': Aswath Damodaran is ditching diversification, eyeing hard assets - https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/stocks/story/something-...
Also see books/papers/etc. under the "Writing" section of his webpage for insights.
Also see books/papers/etc. under the "Writing" section of his webpage for insights.
another broken clock.
Invest outside the US or bet on de-dollarisation (e.g. central banks everywhere buying gold). Just make sure you're not left holding dollars.
Maybe gold? Crypto? Other economies like China or India?
Crypto? You're kidding right?
If there is a depression, no one can eat crypto. It's the first to go.
If there is a depression, no one can eat crypto. It's the first to go.
"Economic Experiment"? BS!
This is straight-up self-destruction and tearing down of global economic systems. As to why; think about who would benefit most from US' demise as global top-dog.
This is straight-up self-destruction and tearing down of global economic systems. As to why; think about who would benefit most from US' demise as global top-dog.
Pretty much any metric of global economic activity is at All time high.
I know this isn't your point, but probably everyone.
> making America less attractive to brainy immigrants
This article is a hit job.
Only H1B visas have been affected by the entry fee for a SINGLE year.
The O1 genius visa and the student visa are still in place and the student visa can still convert to H1B with no issue same as always.
There are many who wish Trump had gone further with this.
Although it is weird that Trump doesnt have any econometric people giving us economic data.
This article is a hit job.
Only H1B visas have been affected by the entry fee for a SINGLE year.
The O1 genius visa and the student visa are still in place and the student visa can still convert to H1B with no issue same as always.
There are many who wish Trump had gone further with this.
Although it is weird that Trump doesnt have any econometric people giving us economic data.
Political freedom is usually prized by "brainy immigrants" - especially those who were likely to travel to the USA.
The problem isn't just the $100,000 fee (not insignificant) but the risks associated with being an immigrant with restricted political freedom in an increasingly authoritarian nation[1].
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-orders...
The problem isn't just the $100,000 fee (not insignificant) but the risks associated with being an immigrant with restricted political freedom in an increasingly authoritarian nation[1].
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-orders...
I'm not through the article but reached that point - I believe the author may be alluding to ICE and fear of persecution rather than changes to H1B or other visas.
I may be incorrect but that was my impression in part because no one, in my experience, takes seriously the premise that H1B is a "brainy immigrant" visa
I may be incorrect but that was my impression in part because no one, in my experience, takes seriously the premise that H1B is a "brainy immigrant" visa
Yep. That was outright inaccurate made me quit reading.
I think you misunderstand parent‘s comment to your comment.
Where does it say it’s about the visa fees?
The US became less attractive for becoming an authoritarian state that is a threat to its own people because of people like RFK Jr. or ICE raids based on racial profiles.
The US became less attractive for becoming an authoritarian state that is a threat to its own people because of people like RFK Jr. or ICE raids based on racial profiles.
The US has deported millions of people, including in ICE raids, over the past 20 years, under both parties. Notably, the Obama administration built 'cages' (AP coined the term) for children of illegals.
The notion that this is new, or that it is a single side, is of course an attempt to paper over historical data which is readily accessible.
Authoritarian regimes tend to have no checks and balances, whereas the other two branches of government have both repeatedly restrained the executive this year, through both law and judicial rulings. They also tend to clamp down on free speech, which isn't happening (but is in Europe), or disarm the population (try owning a firearm in China or North Korea).
The notion that this is new, or that it is a single side, is of course an attempt to paper over historical data which is readily accessible.
Authoritarian regimes tend to have no checks and balances, whereas the other two branches of government have both repeatedly restrained the executive this year, through both law and judicial rulings. They also tend to clamp down on free speech, which isn't happening (but is in Europe), or disarm the population (try owning a firearm in China or North Korea).
For foreign people who might apply for visa the perception matters.
Did the Obama administration also had masked troops hunt down people on the street or arrested them in front of children like the current does?
So male indirect death threats to politicians for stating facts isn’t clamping down on free speech
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-death-threats-democra...
So this is free speech https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reprisals_against_commentators...
but similar things in Europe is clamping down on free speech?
Did the Obama administration also had masked troops hunt down people on the street or arrested them in front of children like the current does?
So male indirect death threats to politicians for stating facts isn’t clamping down on free speech
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-death-threats-democra...
So this is free speech https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reprisals_against_commentators...
but similar things in Europe is clamping down on free speech?
>Notably, the Obama administration built 'cages' (AP coined the term) for children of illegals.
Weird how you're being down voted for saying the truth.
Weird how you're being down voted for saying the truth.
It's sane-washing pure and simple.
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Cherry picking the parts where Obama and Biden acted similar but leaving out the parts where Trump ramped up, isn’t exactly telling the truth
Depending on the day, Obama/Biden either supposedly let in tens of millions with completely open borders, or else they were the party that innovated cruelty against prospective immigrants. Depending on which narrative is convenient.
You're the one doing the cherry picking we with that double standards logic
You seriously want to tell me the Obama and Trump are no different in their treatment of illegal and legal immigrants?
How often did Obama call them drug traffickers and rapists. How often did the Obama administration deport people to some of the worst prisons in foreign countries.
Or answer me this. If Trump doesn’t do anything different what is a bragging about? And how could Obama do the sane with less money and people? Something isn’t adding up, don’t you think?
How often did Obama call them drug traffickers and rapists. How often did the Obama administration deport people to some of the worst prisons in foreign countries.
Or answer me this. If Trump doesn’t do anything different what is a bragging about? And how could Obama do the sane with less money and people? Something isn’t adding up, don’t you think?
>How often did Obama call them drug traffickers and rapists.
Probably less often then he drone striked the middle east while getting the Nobel Peace Prize.
Yes, forget about illegals breaking laws, focus on the hurtful words Trump is using to call those breaking laws.
Obama isn't president anymore, and a lot dem policies of 2008 era are now the same ones republicans are pushing but being called fascist for it. Crazy.
This is why libs are so cooked, because it's all about performative actions and optics for you. You worship Obama but bash Trump for doing what Obama was doing or campaigning on.
If Trump would have build those child detainment cage camps, you guys would have been frothing at the mouth, but since Nobel peace prize Obama built them, then it's OK, only Trump is the evil one for also using them as well.
Probably less often then he drone striked the middle east while getting the Nobel Peace Prize.
Yes, forget about illegals breaking laws, focus on the hurtful words Trump is using to call those breaking laws.
Obama isn't president anymore, and a lot dem policies of 2008 era are now the same ones republicans are pushing but being called fascist for it. Crazy.
This is why libs are so cooked, because it's all about performative actions and optics for you. You worship Obama but bash Trump for doing what Obama was doing or campaigning on.
If Trump would have build those child detainment cage camps, you guys would have been frothing at the mouth, but since Nobel peace prize Obama built them, then it's OK, only Trump is the evil one for also using them as well.
The H-1B Visa Program and Its Impact on the U.S. Economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45309740
skip the paywall: https://archive.ph/fWxBH