Kalshi finds insider trading, a first for prediction markets(semafor.com)
semafor.com
Kalshi finds insider trading, a first for prediction markets
https://www.semafor.com/article/02/26/2026/kalshi-investigates-insider-trading-in-a-first-for-prediction-markets
2 comments
Kind of surprised it took this long for a formal insider trading case on prediction markets. The orderbook depth on most Kalshi contracts is so thin that even a 5k buy before a known event moves the price visibly. Compared to equities where you'd need serious capital to generate alpha from inside info, the barrier here is basically nothing.
These platforms have been running for years with obvious signs of insider trading. I guess it's better late than never that someone was caught officially.