US National Debt Surpasses GDP(thehill.com)
thehill.com
US National Debt Surpasses GDP
https://thehill.com/business/5857998-us-national-debt-gdp/
36 comments
Note that this is only the federal debt, the full government has been 120%+ for a while.
In debt to... themselves. Oh no!
Not exactly.
The U.S. government is not the same entity as private U.S. entities.
The U.S. government is in debt to private U.S. institutions and persons.
While any issues that the U.S. government faces due to its debt won’t be because everyone will ask to collect on their debt at the same time, it’s a useful exercise to think about what would happen if they did do so, to test your implied claim that this is effectively the right hand borrowing from the left.
If everyone did collect at the same time, the following could happen: - The US government doesn’t pay. And a whole bunch of private entities would be dramatically poorer, but also, pretty much every bank and other financial entity’s balance sheet and reserves would break. There would be all sorts of terrible downstream effects. - The US government does pay, in which case it would have to cut massive number of services and increase taxes dramatically.
This situation isn’t gonna happen, but it does show that just the fact that the lenders are American doesn’t mean rhat there are no concerns. Especially since those lenders can very well choose not to buy American debt going forward if other options open up, such as the Chinese loosening monetary policy and boosting their consumer economy, or Japan growing its economy and exports since Japan already has mature and trusted sovereign debt instruments, but doesn’t have the economy to support the market size of U.S. debt, or Europe continues to issue significantly more debt, especially to build their defense industries.
Or, much more likely, a combination of all of these, along with other efforts such as, for example, countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil, starting to issue more debt to build a domestic renewable energy generation and transmission ecosystem in response to the Iran war.
The U.S. economy isn’t collapsing anytime soon. It’s too large, varied and strong for that.
But it’s been weakening nearly every pillar that it stands on for the last few years, and the fiscal debt risk is a major one of those.
The U.S. government is not the same entity as private U.S. entities.
The U.S. government is in debt to private U.S. institutions and persons.
While any issues that the U.S. government faces due to its debt won’t be because everyone will ask to collect on their debt at the same time, it’s a useful exercise to think about what would happen if they did do so, to test your implied claim that this is effectively the right hand borrowing from the left.
If everyone did collect at the same time, the following could happen: - The US government doesn’t pay. And a whole bunch of private entities would be dramatically poorer, but also, pretty much every bank and other financial entity’s balance sheet and reserves would break. There would be all sorts of terrible downstream effects. - The US government does pay, in which case it would have to cut massive number of services and increase taxes dramatically.
This situation isn’t gonna happen, but it does show that just the fact that the lenders are American doesn’t mean rhat there are no concerns. Especially since those lenders can very well choose not to buy American debt going forward if other options open up, such as the Chinese loosening monetary policy and boosting their consumer economy, or Japan growing its economy and exports since Japan already has mature and trusted sovereign debt instruments, but doesn’t have the economy to support the market size of U.S. debt, or Europe continues to issue significantly more debt, especially to build their defense industries.
Or, much more likely, a combination of all of these, along with other efforts such as, for example, countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil, starting to issue more debt to build a domestic renewable energy generation and transmission ecosystem in response to the Iran war.
The U.S. economy isn’t collapsing anytime soon. It’s too large, varied and strong for that.
But it’s been weakening nearly every pillar that it stands on for the last few years, and the fiscal debt risk is a major one of those.
Are folks really optimistic about the US in the long term? Like obviously right now it's one of the best places to be for career growth and income, but do people really imagine staying here for the next 20, 30 years, or do they just not think about it?
The scary thing is I don’t know of a place that would be better for Americans in the next 20-30 years:
- Western Europe needs to figure out quickly how to adapt to a likely diminished or non-existent American role in NATO while at the same time dealing with a very assertive Russia.
- Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are nice but have astronomically high housing prices.
- Japan is struggling with three decades of stagnation, an aging population, and the weak yen.
- Taiwan faces an existential crisis should mainland China attempt to repossess it.
- South Korea is a bright spot, but it has to deal with North Korea and (to a lesser extent) China.
- The developing world is still developing and still needs more time to approach a standard of living that matches that of the developed world.
- China is probably going to overtake the United States in terms of economy, and it has a high standard of living in its urban areas, but living in China means living under CCP rule.
I’m not optimistic about the US in the next few decades, but I’m not optimistic about other developed countries. I’m in my late 30s; sadly if the next 20-30 years are rough, then that’s the rest of my working life…
- Western Europe needs to figure out quickly how to adapt to a likely diminished or non-existent American role in NATO while at the same time dealing with a very assertive Russia.
- Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are nice but have astronomically high housing prices.
- Japan is struggling with three decades of stagnation, an aging population, and the weak yen.
- Taiwan faces an existential crisis should mainland China attempt to repossess it.
- South Korea is a bright spot, but it has to deal with North Korea and (to a lesser extent) China.
- The developing world is still developing and still needs more time to approach a standard of living that matches that of the developed world.
- China is probably going to overtake the United States in terms of economy, and it has a high standard of living in its urban areas, but living in China means living under CCP rule.
I’m not optimistic about the US in the next few decades, but I’m not optimistic about other developed countries. I’m in my late 30s; sadly if the next 20-30 years are rough, then that’s the rest of my working life…
> - Canada, [...] are nice but have astronomically high housing prices.
Vancouver, Toronto, and the surrounding areas have crazy housing prices, but the rest of the country is still mostly okay. These are the two biggest English-speaking cities, and about a third of the country lives in either of them, so they're where most new immigrants tend to go, but there are still tons of other great cities in Canada with better housing prices.
Vancouver, Toronto, and the surrounding areas have crazy housing prices, but the rest of the country is still mostly okay. These are the two biggest English-speaking cities, and about a third of the country lives in either of them, so they're where most new immigrants tend to go, but there are still tons of other great cities in Canada with better housing prices.
Calgary's housing has gone kind of out of control too. It's slowed down now, but for a while it was crazy. I own my house in Calgary and my property value went up by ~250k since I bought in 2018. Lucky for me but kind of insane growth
I'm in Calgary too, and housing has definitely jumped a lot since Covid, but we're still not quite at the Vancouver/Toronto insanity of $1MM for a 1-bedroom apartment (and hopefully it stays that way!).
Yeah, I agree. As much as I like seeing the value of my property grow, I don't think it's overall very good for the city or society if no one can afford homes
> Western Europe needs to figure out quickly how to adapt to a likely diminished or non-existent American role in NATO while at the same time dealing with a very assertive Russia.
Primary, western europe seems to be last chance for democracy. Like, last democracies standing.
Primary, western europe seems to be last chance for democracy. Like, last democracies standing.
That assumes only nation-state-level entities. This has been a very poor assumption: even within my lifetime, the last ~40 years, we've seen nations like Yugoslavia and the USSR break up, and some of the successor states (eg. Slovenia, Croatia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States) have developed robust democracies where previously totalitarian communist governments existed.
Within the territory of the U.S, states like California and NY and Massachusetts continue to have robust democracies even if the federal government doesn't. In California's case it's often a bit too robust, and we often get ourselves into trouble with ballot propositions that have a lot of popular support even when they're economically unworkable.
Within the territory of the U.S, states like California and NY and Massachusetts continue to have robust democracies even if the federal government doesn't. In California's case it's often a bit too robust, and we often get ourselves into trouble with ballot propositions that have a lot of popular support even when they're economically unworkable.
According to 2024 GDI, using the generous "HN definition" which includes Finland and Czechia, only
1/2 of robust democracies are in "Western Europe"
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-state-of-democracy-arou...
Bonus: https://old.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/krvb1y/...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-state-of-democracy-arou...
Bonus: https://old.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/krvb1y/...
Add to Europe’s challenges: Africa’s population will be 6X bigger.
Is the US one of the best places for career growth and income? I'm 30. I've been in the tech industry for several years. During the COVID tech boom I would have agreed. I made insane amounts of money for a new grad. Then I was laid off, cut, or just downright fired for unethical reasons a few times. The combination of reduced demand for software folk, the further loss of autonomy and meaning thanks to LLMs, and that blight on my resume has made it very difficult to believe this is a great place for a career. I know I'm not alone in thinking this. Many of my techy friends, and strangers that I've met, share a bleak sentiment about the future of our careers. It seems that negativity stretches far beyond tech lately. White collar work seems to be more hopeless than ever before.
I've retreated to a public servant tech role. I was drawn to the theoretical stability of this position and the idea that might effort might do some genuine good for my local community. After several months of being here I'm skeptical that I'll be able to do any good because I'm no good at the internal politics. The stability is somewhat comforting, but only in the sense that I will not starve to death. Inflation seems like it will continue to outpace my potential earnings.
I've retreated to a public servant tech role. I was drawn to the theoretical stability of this position and the idea that might effort might do some genuine good for my local community. After several months of being here I'm skeptical that I'll be able to do any good because I'm no good at the internal politics. The stability is somewhat comforting, but only in the sense that I will not starve to death. Inflation seems like it will continue to outpace my potential earnings.
One thing my economics professor taught me is that it’s about relative position across alternatives.
The reason the US continues to grow and thrive despite insane debt is that other countries are worse. Try investing $100B in other markets stably. Now do that 100 times and the chaos of the US is preferred due to the massive debt of other countries, corruption, etc
The reason the US continues to grow and thrive despite insane debt is that other countries are worse. Try investing $100B in other markets stably. Now do that 100 times and the chaos of the US is preferred due to the massive debt of other countries, corruption, etc
The problem for the U.S. is that it’s becoming very much like those other countries.
We’ve lost all fiscal policy stability.
Central bank independence is being severely threatened.
Tax rates are all over the place.
Tariffs are all over the place.
Any industry/company can either be bailed out or completely destroyed based on the whims of the President (Spirit Airlines bailed out for no good reason, and offshore wind energy destroyed for good reason just as an example).
Some may like to think that this is a temporary problem, given the US’s historical fiscal and regulatory stability, but the problem with such actions is that once the floodgates are opened they’re very difficult to close back.
It will be hard for the next President, irrespective of which party they’re in, to resist engaging in similar actions. Heck, even if they’re the most upright individual, they would have to engage in arbitrary executive actions simply to undo some of the actions we have already seen, never mind what we will see for another couple of years.
There are people from scores of countries across the world that will tell us that once corruption slips in at the top, it’s very hard to stop it growing like a cancer.
We’ve lost all fiscal policy stability.
Central bank independence is being severely threatened.
Tax rates are all over the place.
Tariffs are all over the place.
Any industry/company can either be bailed out or completely destroyed based on the whims of the President (Spirit Airlines bailed out for no good reason, and offshore wind energy destroyed for good reason just as an example).
Some may like to think that this is a temporary problem, given the US’s historical fiscal and regulatory stability, but the problem with such actions is that once the floodgates are opened they’re very difficult to close back.
It will be hard for the next President, irrespective of which party they’re in, to resist engaging in similar actions. Heck, even if they’re the most upright individual, they would have to engage in arbitrary executive actions simply to undo some of the actions we have already seen, never mind what we will see for another couple of years.
There are people from scores of countries across the world that will tell us that once corruption slips in at the top, it’s very hard to stop it growing like a cancer.
But the other countries are also becoming more like the other countries, more quickly.
Thus the US gets worse but less worse than alternatives. So US returns continue to grow.
Thus the US gets worse but less worse than alternatives. So US returns continue to grow.
I left the US over 10 years ago. Not for any political reasons, but because I just wanted to live abroad all my life. This has given me an interesting perspective.
I think the World is in a major transitional period. The next 5 years will be very rough for most regular Americans. Kind of like in 1939-40. It's going to be bad for a little while and then get better once a new world order is established.
I think the World is in a major transitional period. The next 5 years will be very rough for most regular Americans. Kind of like in 1939-40. It's going to be bad for a little while and then get better once a new world order is established.
What areas have you lived in? What did you find?
I’ve come to appreciate how few English speaking countries there actually are in the world.
Western Europe seems cute and glamorous but it feels like a lot of people not much above poverty are just trying to survive. (Hence small buildings and their characteristic way of life). Prices are high, taxes high, incomes low. (Sure, they might say they’re less capitalistic and are happier.)
Maybe I’ve also just gotten older but I feel a kind of enthusiasm prevalent in the 80s/90s has been lost.
We went from dreaming about space, computers, and technology to a world focused on social media, analytics, and artificial intelligence. It’s hard to get excited about the latter…
I’ve come to appreciate how few English speaking countries there actually are in the world.
Western Europe seems cute and glamorous but it feels like a lot of people not much above poverty are just trying to survive. (Hence small buildings and their characteristic way of life). Prices are high, taxes high, incomes low. (Sure, they might say they’re less capitalistic and are happier.)
Maybe I’ve also just gotten older but I feel a kind of enthusiasm prevalent in the 80s/90s has been lost.
We went from dreaming about space, computers, and technology to a world focused on social media, analytics, and artificial intelligence. It’s hard to get excited about the latter…
Can you say more about the transitional period (the why and how)?
I agree completely we are going through one.
I agree completely we are going through one.
Humanity lives in endless cycles. I believe we're experiencing a collision between a few shorter cycles and longer cycles. All at the same time.
1. a sort of 80 year forth turning kind of cycle (WWII was the end of one of these): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fourth_Turning
2. a larger super cycle of anacyclosis in the West:
https://anacyclosis.info/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anacyclosis
3. a ~250 year cycle of empires rising and falling (US):
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/6177860-the-fate-of-e... https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52962238-principles-for-...
Now I don't think any of these theories perfectly map to the world. It's not black and white; there are shades of gray. The real world just isn't like that. But it's clear to me there are these shorter and longer cycles and we're about to wrap up several of these and a perfect storm is forming.
1. a sort of 80 year forth turning kind of cycle (WWII was the end of one of these): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fourth_Turning
2. a larger super cycle of anacyclosis in the West:
https://anacyclosis.info/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anacyclosis
3. a ~250 year cycle of empires rising and falling (US):
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/6177860-the-fate-of-e... https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52962238-principles-for-...
Now I don't think any of these theories perfectly map to the world. It's not black and white; there are shades of gray. The real world just isn't like that. But it's clear to me there are these shorter and longer cycles and we're about to wrap up several of these and a perfect storm is forming.
Yes I am, but it might not be very comforting, since a 20 year horizon is a long time to endure before you get to the sunlit uplands.
The US periodically goes through periods of intense corruption, political instability and inequality. It seems like this era is worse because we are living through it right now, but talk to people who were young adults in, say, 1960 to 1975 and they will tell you that between avoiding nuclear war, a President being assassinated, his brother being murdered, a meat grinder war started in dubious circumstances, a powerful and implacable foreign adversary, cops beating the daylight out of people who just wanted their civil rights...it felt like a brutal end of times for America. The generation before then lived through the Depression, wars, scandals (Businessmen's plot), red scare, lavender scare, sputnik, similarly. Just ugh.
Concurrently with these periods the US also made huge strides in science, culture, technology, health, and civil rights. I imagine a very large part of the United States HN readership is here right now because of the 1965 immigration act, the work of ARPA, and so on. Progress is made even in dark times. (Personally, I would not look to (any) government as the creator of good times so much as the building of personal relationships in your community, whether physical or digital. The hippies of 1970 recognized this, as did the beat kids of 1960 - you can't wait for the state to make you happy.)
One question might be not, "can we get through this" but what sort of event will happen that will be the catalyst for moving past the current environment. Obviously one hopes, for example, that it will not take a war of national survival for Americans to get back together. Or a Black Death where so many people die that a new society simply must be born. I think we look at history as if there was a single such event but in reality it is more like a sequence of events over several years that history compresses into one thing.
I've lived here for several decades and I freely admit that the United States can be a violent, chaotic, wild place. But I also remember that it is full of incredible people who have never failed to lend a hand, think creatively, and be open to trying new things. So I would say that people who are discouraged by the current situation (of any political stripe) work on building individual, small scale relationships with people in their community and go from there.
OK, flame away.
The US periodically goes through periods of intense corruption, political instability and inequality. It seems like this era is worse because we are living through it right now, but talk to people who were young adults in, say, 1960 to 1975 and they will tell you that between avoiding nuclear war, a President being assassinated, his brother being murdered, a meat grinder war started in dubious circumstances, a powerful and implacable foreign adversary, cops beating the daylight out of people who just wanted their civil rights...it felt like a brutal end of times for America. The generation before then lived through the Depression, wars, scandals (Businessmen's plot), red scare, lavender scare, sputnik, similarly. Just ugh.
Concurrently with these periods the US also made huge strides in science, culture, technology, health, and civil rights. I imagine a very large part of the United States HN readership is here right now because of the 1965 immigration act, the work of ARPA, and so on. Progress is made even in dark times. (Personally, I would not look to (any) government as the creator of good times so much as the building of personal relationships in your community, whether physical or digital. The hippies of 1970 recognized this, as did the beat kids of 1960 - you can't wait for the state to make you happy.)
One question might be not, "can we get through this" but what sort of event will happen that will be the catalyst for moving past the current environment. Obviously one hopes, for example, that it will not take a war of national survival for Americans to get back together. Or a Black Death where so many people die that a new society simply must be born. I think we look at history as if there was a single such event but in reality it is more like a sequence of events over several years that history compresses into one thing.
I've lived here for several decades and I freely admit that the United States can be a violent, chaotic, wild place. But I also remember that it is full of incredible people who have never failed to lend a hand, think creatively, and be open to trying new things. So I would say that people who are discouraged by the current situation (of any political stripe) work on building individual, small scale relationships with people in their community and go from there.
OK, flame away.
Well put. I too am optimistic that, in the long term, good will prevail and we'll be stronger because of the suffering. I also agree that there's happiness and meaning to be found in presence and local life. However, it feels quite hard to let it wash over me when I spend so much time at work. The hippie lifestyle is very tempting, but I want stability and a family.
The Ken Burns Vietnam War doc was eye opening as a 30-something whipper snapper. The 60s were nuts.
I'm stuck here but I'm in my third act of life so less of a quandary for me.
The biggest issue to address your question is if the US is able to avoid succumbing completely to fascism -- it's not encouraging but there's some room for hope.
The biggest issue to address your question is if the US is able to avoid succumbing completely to fascism -- it's not encouraging but there's some room for hope.
The US still has a highly educated population and lots of high value industries. It's geographically well positioned and large.
I think if we can get even semi-competent people running the government again, we'll be fine.
I think if we can get even semi-competent people running the government again, we'll be fine.
The damage that's been done over the last year and will continue for the next 3 will take decades to recover from. Thats under ideal conditions where all future leadership has some semblance of an interest in fixing the mess we are all in.
The problem is that if the U.S. goes down so does the rest of the world. Some of this is the regional wars that we are likely to see once the U.S. withdraws from its position as peacemaker (like Russia/Ukraine), some of it is economic damage from the collapse of globalization (a la Straight of Hormuz), some of it is direct threats (like Trump threatening to annex Canada and invade Greenland). If we're really stupid some of it might even be nuclear annihilation - superpowers don't go down easily, and MAD requires that the nuclear armed powers have a future that they seek to preserve. Russia is a significant risk here too - demographically they're done in a generation, and countries that are going to fail anyway don't have much of an incentive to keep the current world intact.
Given that the current world order is likely toast, I'd rather hole up in my current spot, where I've got family, friends, a home, and knowledge of the local environment and culture. Plus it's got a relatively forgiving climate, fertile soil, natural harbors, two oceans for defense, an educated populace whose values aren't too different from mine, and a set of mountain ranges if we need to defend ourselves from the rest of the former U.S. Geographically it's hard to do better than the territory occupied by what is currently the United States.
Given that the current world order is likely toast, I'd rather hole up in my current spot, where I've got family, friends, a home, and knowledge of the local environment and culture. Plus it's got a relatively forgiving climate, fertile soil, natural harbors, two oceans for defense, an educated populace whose values aren't too different from mine, and a set of mountain ranges if we need to defend ourselves from the rest of the former U.S. Geographically it's hard to do better than the territory occupied by what is currently the United States.