The military is where all the real power is concentrated, and not because of being military per se. They have no might whatsoever in relation to other countries... they probably have two working jets from the 1970s, four boats with rotting hulls, eleven pistols, and eight rifles. However, they do have a shadow and parallel economic system that exists beyond public scrutiny. By design. Quoting the Treasury Department: Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) is a Cuban military-controlled umbrella enterprise with interests in the tourism, financial investment, import/export, and remittance sectors of Cuba’s economy. GAESA’s portfolio includes businesses incorporated in Panama to bypass CACR-related restrictions.
Those people can, and do, summon whatever resources they need to do whatever they want. In particular, the idea that Cuba should be a tourist destination has made them build hotels left and right, bleeding other services dry. And by services, I mean, everything else. That's why everything is in decay, collapsing, and why people choose to leave (one of the reasons, of course).
In the past, when Fidel Castro was alive and in full posession of his faculties, you could easily say that he was a dictator. Everything of importance was designed, implemented, and micro managed by him. The man was a megalomaniac and, and history would show, also incompetent; but boy, the cult of personality goes deep here, not only in mass media but many of the sicophants.
Today the Secretary General has no power. Everybody knows that; along with the fact that he is also a puppet with the charisma of bucket half filled with sand. Guidance and executive power come first from the Central Committee; which I'm sure follows "tips" and "recommendations" from Raúl Castro (Fidel's brother), a man that should be effectively retired. Everybody knows that's not the case.
However, and being honest, I really don't care about labeling this place as a dictatorship or not (it is a fuzzy concept for me, and I won't fight hard for one or the other). Unless there's a clear definition, labels are sometimes subjective. Hell, this is not even a communist country, despite what they themselves like to present; this is not the dictatorship of the proletariat. And never was.
I do have the opportunity to leave, yes. But, on the one hand, there's immediate family that depends on me (and not just economically.) On the other hand, I'm approaching an age which I feel does not makes me very hireable, so to speak, despite my 30+ years of experience in the field.
Yes, the situation is dire; and I'll be here to witness how this unfolds :|
As a Cuban that is currently living in Cuba, I think it might be useful to voice my opinions, as I have read some comments here which I consider less than accurate in some respects. To avoid typing too much, I'll summarize with... bullet points?
* The published figure of 10 million people is already outdated. First, they are official figures, which means that they are not telling the truth. Second, six months have elapsed; which means the actual number of residents is less than 9 million.
* Not only a large amount of people are gone, but most of them are young, productive people; lots of them professionals in several critical aspects of a functioning society. Where I work I'm only one of the few that remains in my activity (IT & IT adjacent).
* Also gone are many of the more... reactive? brave? People that voiced discontent with the government and just chose to leave. What remains are relatively elderly people that are very conformist, or simple are not brave enough to voice their concerns.
* Is Cuba a dictatorship? No.
* Is Cuba a totalitarian state? Absolutely. The Cuban Communist Party is the only one allowed, as is written in the (relatively recent) Constitution. Even more than that, it exists above the Constitution, so this texts has no value at all.
* Are there human rights violations in Cuba? Yes, no doubt.
* Does the US embargo negatively impacts Cuba? Absolutely. Every single day, for the common people, that is. The elites? The top dogs of the Party? Of course they are unaffected; they are your run of the mill corrupt people in power, and they can have anything.
* Can Cuba trade with other countries? In theory, yes... in practice, it is very difficult. In addition, Cuba is a minuscule market that interests no one. China, for instance, has very little presence in Cuba, despite we being "allies". But they don't care.
I don't know how this could unfold in the future, except with a total collapse. I really wish the end of the embargo, and the possibility of open an free elections. We, common people, are at the mercy of US politics and being managed by inmensely incompetent leaders. We could debate all week on who's at fault here, who threw the first stone, but, as of this moment, that would be sterile. This country will be gone.