aquaphile · HackerTrans

LR always matters, whether or not one cedes a portion of the risk. An insurance program has little value unless it is profitable over time. While some large P&C insurers historically ran their book of business at break-even, and made it up on investment income (reflected in their combined ratio), that is not a viable option given current interest rates.

aquaphile

6 anni fadiscuss

That misses a 3 key points:

1) 72% pure loss ratio is ok, but normally for these lines I'd aim for mid 60s. Nothing special to see here..

2) It took them THREE YEARS to get there, and they were exceedingly poor at selecting and managing risk for 2 years. 161% loss ratio??!! That is flunky-level poor risk management. If they had a reinsurer, that reinsurer is probably very unhappy and unlikely to renew the treaty.

3) The combined ratio is really poor. They are hemorrhaging cash because of high G&A and high sales & marketing. Again, after 3 years of effort. This indicates they have not operated any more efficiently that other legacy insurers, AND that Lemonade is spending aggressively to acquire customers.

Lemonade's competitors have vastly more financial resources and market reach, can cross-sell more products, can equal or better its tech experience (USAA, Esurance), operate more efficiently (every major direct P&C writer), and acquire customers at scale at equivalent or better acquisition costs. For the Lemonade investment thesis to work, one must believe they will eventually address these weaknesses at scale, and that they will be given a software valuation multiple when they are really just another direct writer of insurance.

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