I think this is the answer. You get a lot more false positives, but at least the players can do something about it and aren't at the mercy of devs who can stop support at any time and also are fighting a losing battle.
Yes, but keep in mind there is a while world of EV production out there not available to the US for one reason or another that are plenty competitive with the low tier combustion engine cars.
If we ignore the cultural issues with Americans where some places buying an EV is considered "gay" (because that is inheritently negative to them) then we can easily point to the hostile lobbying tactics and government capitulation via bought congressmen. Go look at the historical hostilities Tesla faced when first trying to take off.
If I still lived in the US, I'd be hesitant to buy an EV because the infrastructure state to state to support charging wasn't great when I was last there. In Europe, you can road trip with your EV no problem.
Let's not entirely blame consumers for not being incentivised enough. Let's face it the US has been actively against EVs. You mention subsidies, haven't those even seen regressions in EV and solar panel subsidies? It's ridiculous.
I have seen plenty of greenfield projects go okay at first but never go the distance. These were mostly product software cases, where they were able to get something very professional looking very fast but AI ultimately always miss the mark because they are taking the median of what exists and not the specific needs of the customer they're developing for. So they get a ton of features and few that were necessary, then developing it further and correcting it to the needs of the customer just makes a mess and regressions are frequent. This is my experience as well when it comes to being a consumer of software products, everything feels shittier and less reliable, perhaps that's my emotion and bias coming out.
The last 20% of the software development cycle is always the hardest. Releasing, maintenance, usability, support. You know, having a real product. I don't see AI helping here at all, more the first 80%, which sadly is also the fun part.
When developing things that are novel, with designs specific to our use cases needing high throughput, the results are pretty dismal. AI can kind of get you there, but I've seen no advancement on this front with new models. At the end of each attempt we've always realized we should have done things by hand. Having people with intense knowledge of the system frequently comes from building it and troubleshooting it, I don't think serious engineering orgs have escaped this inevitability.
On cases where we have legacy software, AI has helped with understanding shit code and design, but woefully bad at contributing to legacy software. Here be dragons for sure. It is super strange to me that these tools can seemingly easily diagnose but completely blunder the fix.
I could easily see there being gains, as you say, in fields where data wrangling becomes tedious (though the inherent error rate in AI outputs scares me if you're trying to get deterministic outputs from experiments... I digress).
The part I think this forum tends to forget, and the tech industry at large fails to even care about, is that we're still humans. There are many studies basically pointing out that the way the AI outputs information is bad for us. Instant gratification from anthropomorphised machines with a habit for sycophancy doesn't sound like a recipe for a healthy relationship with what everyone wants to claim is just a tool. AI providers know this is effective, as well as knowing that there is a gambling effect here. They care about making money, not a good product and they happily prey on our human weaknesses. That is what social media is now. They aren't good products anymore, they just promote addiction via engagement.
Sorry for the long response and cynicism, but that is just my anecdotal experience and perspectives. I can give sources to some of the objective claims if you want.
Reading this thread makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills. The folks on this train in my team do not produce anything significant that we can rely on or use. A lot of hollow prototypes that join the prototype graveyard and code that needs extra scrutiny on critical areas ultimately leading to taking longer.
It's a shame, they were smart and productive engineers. Now? I guess everyone is just all-in on the slot machine.
I can see how folks find Zitron shrill, but I wouldn't dare say he is ignorant. The man seems to be bending over backwards to do actual journalism when most outlets take CEOs at their word and promote a market that goes irrationally up despite evidence. Case and point, the situation in Iran is such a mess, yet every time Trump says there is a deal of some sort, the market rallies. It has been months now of this game.
As a listener, I have not heard him predict collapse once. Maybe I got to him late, but so far as I know, he claims that the industry as it exists is unsustainable. You may think that is him dodging the logical progression of "collapse" but I think so far he has been pretty correct on the unsustainable part, the signs are there. If anyone could predict such things they'd be a billionaire many times over. In the end I think he will be more or less correct, the timing and how long investors can prop it up is the much harder part to predict.
I understand and agree with your point, but sadly we must concede that when you say the letters "AI", people now think of the chatbot interfaced, generative technology. It seems rather intentional to me that the definition has been muddied and is a part of the marketing of something that is clearly not artificial intelligence. I apologize for maybe contributing to that reality, but our words have to mean something to the majority of people, and when I say AI now, the general populous relates that to the new definition of snake oil salesmen.
A couple years back, I think I would have bent over backwards to defend the maintainers. It is a gruelling and thankless effort to maintain any open source project, let alone one as established as rsync. I guess I just don't see AI being a net positive anywhere, and I have to see this backlash to using gen AI as a good course correction from the general populous.
There are other posts talking about the instant gratification of LLM use and the more I have to interact with people using the tools, I think this may truly be the problem. Our biology can't handle it. I see otherwise very smart people do really really stupid things because the slot machine told them, but it has even trained them to be helpless when the slot machine fails them.
I'm being seen as a Luddite, blind to the advancement, and then I see colleagues writing benchmarks that make no sense but have beautiful graphs made with AI. Then I basically have to choose to smile at them and pretend it's good work or scold them for not seeing that the bench is testing an interval baked in as a constant so it's moot. Both options are treating them like they are 7 years old, not intelligent colleagues.
I am okay with Alzheimer's not being cured if it means we are not bending over backwards to welcome a billionaire overlord class. I don't think Altman or Amodei give a fuck about Alzheimer's unless a cure gives them a reason to obtain more investments. You could say that is the system working, but as a member of said system, it feels pretty shit.
It is honestly offensive to me that this isn't plainly obvious to everyone. AI has never, ever, and never will be, about making life better for the average human. It has always been, and always will be, about wealth consolidation and control. Does anyone think it is coincidence that now local models are more useful the market has suddenly made it massively more expensive to buy your own hardware? Companies are just giving up making consumer hardware because they can can just focus on hyper-scalers. They want to control compute as well, there is no liberating aspect to any of this.
Businesses, especially tech ones, are not altruistic. The idea that tech companies are out to make anyone's life better is a joke and a sentiment that should have died decades ago. The evidence is of predatory business practices and leveraging the worst aspects of our brain chemistry to keep us hooked on apps that make us less happy, keep us stupid and less informed, and buying more.
Even more confusing are the people who are welcoming AI with open arms as just another skill to learn, _surely_ they'll be the ones who come out on top, right? It has all the stink of the countless Americans believing they too will become billionaires and everyone else are just suckers as they are all one healthcare problem away from bankruptcy.