This is not an argument against redistribution in principle. It’s an argument that the method of redistribution matters systemically, that a state which degrades its productive ecosystem to fund redistribution is not actually a more equitable state over time, but a less productive and ultimately less equitable one.
I've written an essay comparing political spectacle to professional wrestling's "kayfabe," using immigration policy as a case study. I'd appreciate the HN community's feedback on the argument's clarity and strength.
Thanks, George. I’m a new Australian (U.S. transplant) and still getting up to speed on the local medical culture. But, re: SAD/mood, bright-light therapy is first-line; I treat vitamin D as “correct deficiency, don’t expect it to replace standard care.”
On MS (the bit I didn’t cover well): Higher lifelong 25(OH)D is linked to lower MS risk (observational + genetic lines point the same way). In people already diagnosed, adding high-dose D3 to disease-modifying therapy hasn’t reliably cut relapses; MRI signals are mixed.
So, test and correct deficiency (good general health practice), but don’t expect vitamin D to function as a disease-modifying add-on.
Great question and fair push-back. Two quick clarifications:
The ETCS isn’t a ratio scale. A 70 vs 68 isn’t “1.02× more true”; it’s a weighted confidence score that blends consistency of RCTs/meta-analyses, effect size, heterogeneity, external validity (who benefits), dosing clarity, and risk trade-offs. Small gaps (especially near band edges) should be read as “roughly comparable confidence,” not a meaningful quantitative jump.
Why 70 (“Strong, with nuance”) for fractures vs 68 (“Moderate-to-Strong”) for respiratory infections? Because the fracture claim is consistently positive when paired with calcium in older/institutionalized adults (clear population + pairing guidance), whereas the respiratory finding shows a modest, baseline-dependent benefit (strongest only when deficient; daily/weekly dosing beats bolus; more heterogeneity and large neutral trials in sufficient populations). Same neighborhood numerically, but the value proposition differs (i.e., Fractures: act when risk is high; pair D3 with calcium; practical, repeatable benefit; Respiratory: correct deficiency first; expect at most a modest protective effect, not population-wide gains).
To make this clearer going forward, I’ll add a short ETCS legend in each post and note that ≤3–5-point differences within a band are “near-ties.” Thanks for the nudge. This is exactly the kind of reader feedback that I'm looking for.