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jjxw

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The Agony and the Ecstasy: One Year on the Full Time Poker Tournament Grind

thehobbyist.substack.com
3 points·by jjxw·5 mesi fa·0 comments

Markets Are Information – Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game

thehobbyist.substack.com
3 points·by jjxw·2 anni fa·0 comments

Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

thehobbyist.substack.com
103 points·by jjxw·2 anni fa·95 comments

comments

jjxw
·9 mesi fa·discuss
To be fair, 1k hands is a pretty meaningless sample - I think most pros would say you need at least 50k if not 100k hands for the results to be any reliable signal as to whether or not a player is actually winning or losing in the long run.
jjxw
·2 anni fa·discuss
Turns out most day traders are eaten alive. There's one study a few years ago that looked at Brazilian day traders and found 97% of traders that traded for more than 300 days were unprofitable [1]. I imagine this is due to a combination of factors which include 1) no real edge against the market and 2) fees. Of course unclear if their results generalize to other equity markets, but I think this is some evidence that the average day trader will have a difficult time beating the more sophisticated market participants over a large sample.

[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101
jjxw
·2 anni fa·discuss
I think it depends on the audience. I have some closer friends that I would be comfortable taking a more aggressive communication style because they know my intent is to help them and sometimes people do need someone to shock them into making a change.

For internet strangers, at least in my experience, I think putting people on defensive footing through more aggressive language makes it more difficult to get your point across to most folks. Your goal, however, might be to talk to a group out there that does respond to a more "tough love" angle.

I do find it can make productive discussion with those who are going to perceive the language as insulting more difficult if not impossible. Just something to keep in mind depending on your communication goals.
jjxw
·2 anni fa·discuss
I think it's great that you had the conviction and risk taking appetite to find success and in retrospect be able to say it was the "right" choice for you. I also think there's some great advice in there about benchmarking the road that you're headed down and asking yourself if it is the right road for you.

However, I think this comment veers off into a tone that, for me, is a bit judgmental and prescriptive. Even out of the group of people who are single and childless people have different life situations, people have different risk tolerances, and there's not a one size fit all solution to quitting your job and chasing your passion for everyone. Not to mention unfortunately some people sacrifice a lot in pursuit of what they want and end up with nothing or very little to show for it in the end.

Again I think your comment comes from a good place and there's some useful advice here, but the unnecessary name calling is a bit of a turn off at least for me and overall reduces the effectiveness of communicating your advice.
jjxw
·2 anni fa·discuss
Yeah, agreed, love the Plain Bagel and the generally sane takes from that channel.

"Get rich" is definitely too broad of a target and probably has too many connotations with "mansion and luxury cars" when, as you identified, what I meant with that statement is closer to "financial goals" or, more tangibly, something like "comfortable retirement".
jjxw
·2 anni fa·discuss
This is a point worth clarifying. I think a lot of people actually do get rich investing. It just turns out the "good process" in this case is leaving your money in a diversified portfolio for decades. This leverages making a bunch of bets that on average have a positive expected value over a long enough time horizon that you are able to realize the gains.

There are also certainly other ways to have an edge in investing (quant firms come to mind), but I think the most realistic option for "anyone" is readily available in the form of low fee index funds and a long time horizon.