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martinvol

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What happens when your blog hits #1 in Hacker News?

martinvol.pe
2 points·by martinvol·2 mesi fa·3 comments

Blogging like a nerd: Cloudflare Pages is all you need

martinvol.pe
5 points·by martinvol·2 mesi fa·0 comments

The Hormuz Blockade: The energy and supply chain crisis that's upon us

martinvol.pe
6 points·by martinvol·3 mesi fa·2 comments

How the AI Bubble Bursts

martinvol.pe
372 points·by martinvol·4 mesi fa·523 comments

Why Isn't Anyone Panicking?

martinvol.pe
1 points·by martinvol·4 mesi fa·0 comments

comments

martinvol
·2 mesi fa·discuss
Isn't this how the Jaguar fiasco came to be?
martinvol
·2 mesi fa·discuss
Haven't tried, but have you checked OpenCode?
martinvol
·2 mesi fa·discuss
Obviously it helps that the content is good, but ultimately is very hard to predict what people will find interesting. There's also a big share of luck about how the people that are online at that time react to it.
martinvol
·3 mesi fa·discuss
I guess it's also a bit after that, because that'd make reserves full and they'll start depleting day-by-day. In any way we should see prices consistently increasing.
martinvol
·3 mesi fa·discuss
if they have the capital they can't risk but keep training, if someone comes up with a marginally better model than them then everyone will migrate and their business crashes down. Only big tech is in a position to take that risk.
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
bubbles are created by people investing more than reasonable in something, independent of the actual value it will generate for society.
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
I don't think token demand will shrink because we're still just learning how to use it, demand will skyrocket. The problem is what price we'll be willing to pay for it, specially if competition keeps soaring.
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
they have to fight to stay competitive because mag7 can outspend them, but my hypothesis is that they wont need to ultimately.
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
yeah good point, although it's just one of all the catalysers I mentioned. I fact I had written most of the post already before I saw the news about RAM.
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
RAM prices haven't crashed yet and it'll take time because it has to propagate within the supply chain. Micron is -20% from the top already https://www.investing.com/equities/micron-tech

Stock price is the best forward indicator I can think of
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
> The problem with these kind of posts is that "How" is almost useless, I can tell you how the bubble pops: The value of these AI companies crash and take out a lots of other stuff with it.

That's like saying "I know exactly how you're going to die, your heart will stop"
martinvol
·4 mesi fa·discuss
great feedback