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mech987

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mech987
·3 anni fa·discuss
You should watch videos on how hard head gaskets are to design if you want an idea of some of the engineering involved- I think "engineering explained" did one recently on youtube.
mech987
·3 anni fa·discuss
That is a fair point- although when the increases are large enough in such a small time that the prior/posterior calculations are that different, I don't feel like it inspires confidence.
mech987
·3 anni fa·discuss
Here's the data on M2 money supply in billions of dollars, for those curious, in billions of dollars:

Feb 2020: 15,457.9 Feb 2022: 21,699.2

This is a 40.3% increase.

To be charitable, this money isn't all on printed physical cash dollar bills, but nowadays there is no need for it to be. (I'm tempted not to be charitable though.)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
mech987
·3 anni fa·discuss
I don't think any of the people you are having a discussion with are making the claims you think they are making.
mech987
·3 anni fa·discuss
I've been keeping an eye on LiFePO4 batteries- they should be less likely to have a "thermal event" than lithium ion. Some manufacturers are putting them in cars now. Less energy dense but cheaper and better cycle life before wearing out. I want to see those in a 10 year old EV I can buy affordably!
mech987
·3 anni fa·discuss
I think if there is condensation between the panes then the sealed air cavity inside the window has been compromised- you might want to get a new window put in.

The large double glazed sliding glass door in one of my previous apartments had that issue, and it eventually became mold trapped inside the glass that was uncleanable.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
It is a comparison in the same spirit as the original article.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
insulation-displacement-crimps are not a good idea for the relatively high amounts of power coming through household wiring. Not much contact area, lots of potential for high resistance and heat and oxidation at the contact point. I wouldn't trust them.

Then again, wire nuts aren't that great either.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
UK homes run on 230 volts, so each amp is worth double what US amps are worth (running on 115 volts in the US) edit: 115 volts per leg, and US has 2 legs, so it comes out in the wash, surprisingly. UK homes have tiny little service amps!
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
Seems to me that people are much more upset about this particular video (guy in circle for 100 days) because he's a husband and father. If it had been a young 20-something person, nobody would bat an eye.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
I've only thought about it for a minute- but I might speculate that it is a signal from Russia- "even if we decide we want to turn the gas back on, you might not be able to get it when you want it."
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
You are confusing the watt and the watt-hour. Running a 2000 watt load for 24 hours will use 48,000 watt-hours (48 kilowatt-hours).
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
I'm not sure how things will look by the time my daughter might be ready to go to college in 18 years-

Would it be best for us to sock away money in a 529 plan, or to just let her take out loans to the greatest extent possible and pay them back after the fact?
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
>The risk is that it will be excessively contractionary and will trigger a worldwide recession

>Those who advocate a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy in the name of stopping inflation, do so because they fear a build up of inflationary momentum. That risk may be real. No less real, however, are the costs of the contractionary policy mix being applied now.

My intuition on the problem is that no matter where we fall along the spectrum once it lands, we will have both unacceptably high inflation (which we've already had) and an unacceptably large recession. Don't know which one will hurt more yet.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
You conflated some of my claims about the hypothetical company with claims about Microsoft in particular. I think that the root of it gets down to disagreement in values about how capitalism rewards innovators though, so it's unlikely we'll resolve any of that disagreement today. I might as well say my piece.

>However, consider how disconnected their actions are from their financial reward...

Operating at a high executive level in a corporation is necessarily abstract and disconnected. Bill Gates's most tangible actions were early on, starting the company and taking the risk and creating the first bits of the software. It's turned out that many software products have high margins once established, and high network effects as well. By the time somebody is focusing their attention on the biggest winners among the highest margin, most scalable industries, at the peak of their career success, they can forget the other less-successful founders whose products help people everyday and are awarded in more reasonable proportion. It's tough to know how many of these other founders would have even started a worthwhile business without the potential reward of wild amounts of wealth.

FWIW, I would appreciate it if co-ops were more common as a corporate structure. I've got no beef with that existing, and it is indeed possible for it to exist within the U.S. legal system. I figure that it all comes down to incentives. And as far as Bill's wealth goes he's doing a pretty good job of giving it to people in greater need of it than the average software developer.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
I think we're seeing the culmination of a long-term trend of declining interest rates. Interest rates have been declining for 400 years, and have finally reached the point where they bottom out at 0. (or even negative interest rates, in European bank policy!).

The bad part of this I think, is that valuations of long-term cash flows start becoming more and more sensitive to rates. The difference between a 2.75% mortgage and a 3.75% mortgage is bigger, relatively, than the difference between a 3.75% mortgage and a 4.75% mortgage; because people buy the largest, longest mortgage they can afford, small changes in small interest rates result in large changes in the monthly payment. I feel like this ends up making the whole housing market more volatile.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
As a pure test case-

Let's say there was an individual who founded a company, owned 100% of the equity, and designed a brand new product. The product solved an unmet need for consumers, sold at high profit margins, and was massively successful. Our inventor was well ahead of his time, and the next-fastest similar invention would've been invented 30 years later, during which time $500 billion of consumer value had been created. Would you admit in this case that the founder earned a substantial fraction of the $500 billion?

To what degree is Bill Gates' wealth similar to this test case versus network-effect-capture, first-mover-advantage wealth? How do you quantify the value of Microsoft's software quality earning it's substantial market share, versus Microsoft getting there first and squatting on the network effect?
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
You're free to give as much extra taxes to the government as you want to help reduce the debt and get us closer to that sovereign wealth fund. I'd appreciate it.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
Isn't heating a really good way to use natural gas compared to other ways to use it? 90%+ efficiency ain't bad.
mech987
·4 anni fa·discuss
Because they have a vested interest in understanding the parts of the global economy that affect their competitors.