What's worked for me every time I get in that routine is to force myself to do one to five push ups every time I think about switching tabs.
During that time I think about what it is that I really want to be doing. After a while I automatically skip to this step without having the desire to refresh HN.
> I think it can win more than half the time, because it can gather roughly how likely the same choice is to be played in a row.
With a random choice, the chance of playing the same choice in a row is 1/3. This does not give you any advantage over having no information (where each choice has a 1/3 chance.)
I think the misunderstanding is in
> a randomizer has pretty even distribution
Seemed like it was just UV, though I didn't ask.