Same as in every other bubble:
Housing is insanely expensive,
Dating sucks,
That friend that just got rich,
So and so company just got funded,
This event coming up,
When's the bubble going to burst
Companies cut ~600K tech jobs since covid purely on AI hype. Now there is actually (some) utility. The bubble will burst at some point (they always do). I think companies cut to the bone at that point. No one knows when the top is but when it turns I don't think many of the cushy knowledge worker (white collar) jobs come back. It was a good run. 1975 - 202X?
Hear me out. I'm excited about this if it means making shopping better. I want a better shopping assistant. I want someone to do all the work for me (read reviews, do product spec comparisons, price, shipping etc) and just tell me what to buy for 85% of things I purchase online. ChatGPT has this potential, but sucks at it. I'm probably going to buy it on Amazon. Work together and it'll be magic for me.
My assumption is that most users won't actually care if the LLM is in the cloud or device. That said, quite a few folks have iPhones and Apple's only way into the AI race is to go to it's strength, 1B+ hardware devices that they design the silicon for. They will produce a phone that runs a local LLM and market it as private and secure. People upgrade every couple of years (lose or breaks) so this will drive adoption. I'm not saying people will vibe code on their iphones.
Based on the recently released graph of how people are using chatgpt. ~80% of use cases (practical guidance, seeking information, writing) could presumably run on a local model.
The bubble pops when Apple releases an iPhone that runs a good enough for most things LLM locally. At that point cloud hardware investments will plateau (unless some new GPU melting use case comes out). Investors will move from nvidia, AMD into Apple.
I give this one a big maybe.... What's definite is Cook talks a lot about design but clearly has no handle at all on function or marketing. Everything from the overly scripted, mercurial presentations to examples used in canned videos is all so far from reality it's a caricature of itself.
The lack of authentic examples diminishes the impressive tech. Great design is all about function. Why is it so hard to show how this would actually be used in the real world?
Impossible to oversee. Everyone presenting was so old. It's like they were imagining what was hip and cool. Lets have a women doing salsa facetiming... who would she even be talking to in that scenario??
Long time apple fanboy. I've watched most of these unveilings for the past 20 years. The new phones are impressive. But it was all speeds and feeds. The examples felt so wrong. The women dancing while on the phone. The guy running with while recording. The person needing translation to buy roses? None of those feel grounded in reality. It's like they are building tech for made up in corporate conference room use cases.
Every time I read about a big publicly traded company say something "we're like a startup" I just LOL. Startups win by doing something really disruptive that actually works. You only hear about extreme success. Most things fail. If SNAP allowed each startup squad (10 users) to actually operate like a startup, they'd launch 500 unique disruptive features per month, every month until they hit a growth curve. I'm skeptical that's actually happening.
I don't personally have any regrets, because I'm that kinda person. But there are people who prioritized travel, dating, health and personal experiences who have better stories from that period than I do knocking out bugs or shipping a feature that no one ever used. I bought into the mission of the founder. Sure he remembered me when he saw me, but I doubt he thought of me once in the period in between. I remember feeling pretty disappointed after that encounter. Like I bought in, put in the work, it didn't work out and the guy that I followed didn't even remember my name. Prior to that encounter I shared that experience as a badge of honor. After reading this thread and posting here I can't help but think what a waste of time...
This is wild. Meta, OpenAI, MSFT, Nvidia are collectively keeping the AI trade alive, which is propping up the stock market and overall perception of the economy. This admission makes it clear that the AI spends are being made up not based on business value/demand...
Totally. The point is, this guy who's mission I dedicated a good portion of life to clearly doesn't think about me at all after the fact. I'm sure he's gratefuland values me. But if I was part of his story he'd remember my name.
True story. I grinded hard at a startup for years. This was a decade ago so the concept of 996 wasn't part of the lore yet. But it was fun. We stayed late and I made life long friends. I worked closely with the founder (really awesome dude) as I was an early-ish employee. The company ended up not working, our equity went to zero and we got what you get when you don't get rich, experience. I ran into the founder randomly on the street years later. He didn't even remember my name. He recognized me and was excited to see me, but he had no idea what my name was. So yah, prioritize your life.