Maybe they’ll use AI to help build it in record time, then the AI the first one powers will be used to shorten the timeline even further on nth projects /s
Who else right now is making competing models that are roughly as capable? Now factor in hardware availability / future delivery contracts and capital requirements for building datacenters and running new training. If you're trying to compete and lease all that with VC money or loans, good luck actually competing.
>The more AI causes productivity increases, the less and less number of workers will be needed. This will heat up the job market even more and bring salaries down.
>Net effect of this productivity increase: less consumption by the masses, even though you may be producing more good and much more efficiently.
Big tech companies can't even create login flows and account recovery flows that work for everyone yet. There are countless stories of folks losing access to business Instagram accounts that get hacked, Google support from a human to fix a problem that is outside of their help articles is non-existent, etc etc. There's still so much "low-hanging fruit" IMO that isn't particularly fun or exciting to fix, but ask your average non-tech friend or family member what they think of the Facebook + Instagram security settings pages / sites / desktop-only settings.
Who is going to pay for all of these subscriptions that will power this GDP increase when average purchasing power of those outside of the top ~10% of earners is decreasing YoY? We're headed toward food and water shortages next to sprawling datacenters, not shared societal prosperity and a healthy middle class.
And yet the job everyone loves to hate, the humble "burger flipper", continues to resist automation yet command minimum wage labor rates. This future of either being a CEO of a company consisting primarily of AI agents building some monthly subscription-based solution to some trivial digital chores OR manual labor that isn't [yet] fiscally viable to automate seems quite bleak. We'd also need a ton of robot technicians and manufacturing that the US has neither the educational and training institutions to support nor the will of the population to fill. Given the ongoing war on immigration, visas, and foreign-made hardware, if this continues, good luck.
>The bottleneck has moved from producing a thing that works to knowing that the thing was the right thing to build
I would argue that that's been the case for quite some time before AI. As an example, what innovative amazing world-changing products have Google or Meta launched in the past decade with their very high numbers of very talented and highly-compensated engineers? The issue with most big tech companies are leadership, strategy, and product direction. I'm not saying that they don't make any profits, just that they probably aren't "building [the right thing]".
AI for product development and management would be far more impactful than automating rote coding tasks / building React UIs that mirror API structures IMO.
It's the norm at Big Tech these days. Directors and VPs take all the glory if it goes well while ICs, team leads, and people managers get all of the blame if it doesn't. When the charlatans get exposed, they bounce on to the next company with their charlatan friends. Rinse and repeat while swapping RSUs for index funds, retire with >$10m before 50. If we stopped allowing this to work in our industry, it wouldn't be such a common thing. Unfortunately, with how everything is these days, these people are getting hired on vibes and bravado.
...or something that runs CGI commands. Bash scripts are like the glue of the internet, and many of them are poorly-written. Tons of stuff still runs on PHP or relies on little Python cron jobs behind the scenes. A lot of the way this stuff works depends on being able to chain vulns together...an unescaped query to a database that gets piped to a nightly cron job to sync or backup something becomes an attack vector.
They scraped everything on Stackoverflow, likely IRC logs from Freenode, and every book written in the modern era courtesy of Sci-Hub / Library Genesis / Anna's Archive / Z Library.
RIP Aaron Swartz, they're generating trillions in shareholder value from the spiritual successors to the work they were going to imprison you for.
jQuery is still useful too. May you never work in heathcare / government / defense where you need to support legacy browsers far past their expiration date.
You already do and your consent is part of your employment. Check your employee handbook, search for things like "data privacy" and understand how https://www.copyright.gov/circs/circ30.pdf applies in the modern world, especially around AI. TL;DR companies can do whatever they want with your work / observe you and you have no real meaningful recourse.
Most companies just don't have a reason to look through the computer they're letting you use to do your job. Don't give them a reason.
Maximizing shareholder value by observing you doing job in the pursuit of replacing you with a very small shell script is a great reason that they've just discovered.
Get your own laptop, pay for your own cellphone, use your own internet service, etc. If you create anything of value on their property or with their property or during times they're paying you in any capacity, expect them to use it for profit.
Here's how a refusal to them doing whatever they think would maximize shareholder value with any of your output or data they collect from your company computer would actually go down: the company would do something you didn't like, you'd try to complain about it, HR would listen and document everything. In the best-possible case, they'd let you personally opt out. More likely, since you're likely very easy to replace in their minds, they'd refer you to their data privacy clauses in their acceptable usage policy section of the employee handbook, maybe reference the notice sent out to everyone about how they're doing this, then fire you for performance reasons a few months later. You'd be given an NDA and a very average severance, then you could choose to try to hire a lawyer (who would take at least a third of any pre-tax settlement amount) and fight them, in which case they'd settle for more or less the same as the severance package (and keep in mind both that and any court settlement are both taxable income, so you're not getting a windfall in any case), or you'd just sign the NDA and take the severance with no admission of wrongdoing on their part and no legal recourse.
Large companies employ entire orgs of lawyers who specialize in these matters, and it is literally their job to protect the company, not the employees, from lawsuits like this. Is it fully legal and in the clear? Probably not. Will they still 100% get away with it and leave employees with no realistic options or upside attempting to fight it? Of course. Welcome to America, land of the free for corporations which are legally people, just ones with infinite lives who cannot be arrested / imprisoned but can make legal decisions but cannot be subpoenaed. See eg https://www.theverge.com/policy/886348/meta-glasses-ice-doxx... for how the C-suite thinks about this type of thing.
But at the moment it’s so exciting to see if we’re headed more for a Waterworld-esque dystopia or something more similar to Neuromancer / The Matrix. I guess it’ll depend on the rates at which the global economy collapses as a result of AI and WW3 vs climate change, exacerbated of course by the inevitable global thermonuclear war.
It’s probably already too late to put these horses back in the barn, but having an “allow AI commits / PRs” would have probably been a good idea for GitHub to make available to projects. Even better might have been something like a robots.txt for repos with rules that could be auto-evaluated and PRs auto-rejected if they weren’t followed.
Then again, we see how well robots.txt was honored in practice over the years. As with everything in late-stage capitalism, the humans who showed up with good intentions to legitimately help typically did the right things, and those who came to extract every last gram of value out of something for their own gain ignored the rules with few consequences.
It was interesting the other day tracing the lineage of Aaron Swartz -> Library Genesis / Sci-Hub -> LLM vendors relying on that work to train their models and sell it back to us all with no royalties or accountability to the original authors of all this painstakingly researched, developed, and recorded human knowledge they’re making billions on.